Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/22/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s another 11 race Saturday program at Oaklawn for what figures to be a gorgeous spring day in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The featured race is the Grade 3 Essex Handicap, which drew a field of seven. However the field for that race remains in flux as three of the runners are cross-entered in the New Orleans Classic Stakes this afternoon at the Fair Grounds. Three year old fillies will also be featured on this card, sprinting six furlongs in the Purple Martin Stakes earlier in the card. First post for today is set for 12:35 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $20K maiden claiming race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. This feels like a race that is evenly matched, especially with the shorter prices. Charming Tiger (#4) interests me in this race. He’s coming out of two $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming races at this distance. Arkansas breds run for $20K in those races, whereas everyone else was entered for $12,500. While on paper, this looks like a slight rise in class, both of those races came against older runners. By facing straight three year olds in this race, he’s actually facing a softer field. This smaller barn has not had success with runners first off the claim, but they have two winners with ten starters and three others finishing in the money. He’s been better since trying dirt route races, pairing his last two Beyers. I think he has the potential to move forward a little more than some of his rivals in this spot. Vino Vidi Vici (#1) finished a distant third in another $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming race two starts ago. He moved to a $30K maiden claiming race against three year olds two weeks ago where he closed late to get into third, but once again, well behind the winner. He’s had some wide journeys, so the post relief in this spot should be welcomed. 

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in a $12,500 maiden claiming race. Horses bred in Arkansas will be running with a $20K tag. Moenchanted (#6) was the beaten favorite when making her first start since the end of April last month. She ran in a state bred $20K maiden claiming race, which is essentially the same level of competition that she’s running at now. She figures to benefit from that race and should be tougher with this group today. Devilish Gal (#1) ran in the faster division of the state bred $20K maiden claiming race that the top pick is coming out of. She couldn’t keep pace with the winner that day, which was also her first start in almost a year. If she can run back to that race, she’s going to be tough today. I don’t love the rail draw because she’s pretty much committed to go to the front. If she moves forward off the last race, it might not matter. On deeper tickets, Aloha Baby (#4) is dropping in class in hopes of waking up. Her last two performances have not been up to snuff. She does have some efforts that would make her competitive at this level, however, the question remains if she can get back to those races or not. Both also-eligible runners are worth considering if they were to draw into this race. Paris Accord (#13) faltered when trying two turns for the first time last time out. Her sprint race figures with better competition definitely put her in the conversation with these. This is a decent drop in class for her, so I’d consider her an A line play if she does get to race. Alltail (#14) is a bit of a wildcard if she were to race. This would be the shortest distance that she’s competed in. She wasn’t terrible with $30K maiden claimers in the mud two starts ago. She had some traffic woes last out, but was generally flat when racing at this level. Should one of the runners above defect and she makes it in, I might move her on to the B line. I do see her more as a backup though. 

Race 3:

We’ll move to an early N1X allowance sprint where only seven runners are entered. I’m a little conflicted by taking B Sudd (#1) as the top pick in this race, but I do believe that he can rebound after a lousy effort last time out. I scratched into him as the top pick that day, in part because of his consistency. The horse in the stall next door took a left hand turn out of the gate and threw him off his game. He was fighting Arrieta while cornering and attempting to save some ground. He was never a threat day finishing last of eight, well behind some of the runners he’ll be facing here. He should get the right set up in this race, as Sitka (#2) and I’m Wide Awake (#5) dueled in that race and they’re joined by Sinners Sin (#6) to add a little more spice to the early pace. B Sudd likes tracking the leaders, but he doesn’t want to be rallying from last. His efforts with starter allowance company have been solid this year and I don’t see this group as being very strong, especially at this condition here. Sitka had the outside position in the duel last out, and today he’s holding inside position on I’m Wide Awake. Cristian Torres has done well when teaming up with Matt Williams and he’ll replace Harry Hernandez in the irons today. Torres is strong on the front end, and if you needed a reminder of that, go back and watch his aggressive ride to seal the victory with L.A. Diamond in the 5th race yesterday. I think he’s more likely to outlast his rival today.

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in a maiden special weight contest here. There are some three year olds taking on some older foes in this race. The maiden special weight races for older fillies and mares have not been particularly strong at this meet, so I do think the youngsters have the edge. Coaster (#10) broke well last out when making her third career start. She was put in a tight spot though and had to be hard held by Leparoux after steadying in the first furlong. She was very aggressive, while challenging the leaders. She stuck her head in front but expended too much energy early on and had little left late. I think the outside draw and the rider change to Bejarano are going to be major advantages for her today. Moquett takes the blinkers off as well as they try to get this Vekoma filly on track. I think she’s sitting on a big race in her third start off the layoff. I didn’t love the ride on Avery’s Mischief (#1), who was my top pick in that same race that Coaster is coming out of. Keith Asmussen takes over for his brother Erik (who is riding with much more confidence this month). She’s beautifully bred and should continue to improve. However, I don’t love the rail for this filly in this spot. On deeper tickets, Trista (#5) makes her second career start for D. Wayne Lukas. She flashed some early zip while moving four wide before fading late. The outer lanes were the best place to be on that card and she’s worked well since that race. She might still need another race or two, but I think she’ll continue to progress as many Lukas runners have done at this meet. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 ends and the Mid-Card Pick-5 begins with this $10K N1X claiming race. The conditions of this race are designed to allow runners that have not won a race at this meet so far to compete against one another. The two favorites in this race are both recent claims making drops in class that feel a little suspicious. Vulcan (#4) isn’t the most consistent runner, but when he’s right, he can definitely compete at this level. Greg Compton claimed him  for $12,500 last month. He was dull in that race, but was beaten less than a length in a race at a comparable condition here two starts ago. I think he can rebound with this group today. Hello Hot Rod (#10) feels like a love longshot that could be flying under the radar in this race. Michael Hewitt claimed him for $20K three back ,but he’s been dull in his last two starts. He was shuffled back when facing better last out, finishing 8th at long odds. His better form from the fall does fit with this group though. While his best work has come away from Arkansas, at 20-1 (ML), I do feel there’s a little more upside than some of the other longer prices in this race. I’m No Joke (#3) is the slight morning line favorite. Tom Amoss claimed him for $20K last time out, so I don’t love that’s racing for the $10K tag here. However, he was very productive at the Remington Meet this fall, winning three times there. He definitely faced tougher foes in his first two local starts. While there are concerns, there’s more to like with him, as opposed to Briterdayzahead (#5), who is starting off at a similar price. 

Race 6: 

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in a $50K N3L claiming race. Nine are entered in this race with a few nice runners dropping in for a tag for the first time in their careers. There’s not a lot of early speed signed on for this race, but horses like Double Barrel (#2) and Carolo Rapido (#5) have enough tactical speed to be in a good striking position in this race. I’ll give the slight edge to Carolo Rapido. He’s not as consistent as Double Barrel, but he has more upside. He’s beautifully bred, sired by Curlin and foaled by the Kentucky Oaks winner, Cathryn Sophia. He was sold for $175K at the end of the Churchill meet this summer and he paid quick dividends for his new connections, winning for the second time in allowance company at Ellis. He struggled in his next two starts, but came back with a strong effort after a three month break, finishing third in a strong N2X allowance race here in the mud. He tried the General McArthur Overnight Stakes in his start and that was a salty race for an overnight stakes. He was the last of eight that day, never having an impact. He drops in class, running with a tag for the first time. I’m hopeful that he can turn things around in this spot. Double Barrel was a game second with $40K-$35K N3L claimers last time out. His two starts in dirt routes were both solid efforts. Both of his career wins came on the turf, but she’s shown an ability to be competitive on multiple surfaces. Mendelssohns March (#1) is a bit of an X-factor in this race. His last race on dirt came in the 2023 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland. Prior to that, he cleared the N1X allowance condition on a sloppy course in a race here in March of that year. He’s been kept out of the Winner’s Circle in his 12 starts since that win. Most of those races came on the grass, and some of those efforts weren’t terrible. He struggled in his last start on synthetic, so this drop in class and surface switch feels like a complete reboot from McPeek. He certainly could contend, but it remains to be seen how sharp he’ll be in this spot. 

Race 7, The $175K Purple Martin Stakes:

The first of two stakes races on this card is a six furlong dash for three year old fillies. This is the starting point in 2025 for both Accelerating (#1) and Kimchi Cat (#4). Both fillies showed promise as two year olds. Accelerating was an easy winner on debut and she came back to win the Seeking the Ante Stakes against New York breds in her last start at the end of the Saratoga meet. She’s been sidelined since then and has been preparing to make her first career start in open company. She’s led every step of the way in both career starts and the only real competition for the early lead should come from Kimchi Cat. She won the off the turf Bolton Landing Stakes at Saratoga this summer. She broke her maiden at 5 ½ furlongs there the month before. Her last start of 2024 came in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes where she walked home after setting the pace in a field of 14. Her works have been a little sharper as both of these fillies have been based at the Fair Grounds. Both fillies could be keen and could duel themselves into submission if they’re not careful. If someone can collar them late, I think it’ll be Kentucky Smokeshow (#3). She’s cutting back in distance after faltering in a N1X allowance race going 1 1/16 miles at the beginning of the month. She was closing late in allowance company in her first start at the meet. Her lone win came from off the pace in her debut, which was the only time she caught a fast track in a sprint race. She’ll need to step up, but if the top two need this race, I like her the best. She’s the top pick for me here. 

Race 8: 

This $20K N2X claiming race is another opportunity to give horses that have been winless at the meet a chance to compete against each other. However, horses that have won races when racing with a $12,500 claiming tag or less are eligible to run here. Without Objection (#3) is cross-entered in a starter allowance tomorrow where he has a reasonable shot. This race carries a slightly higher purse though. With Ian Glass (#7) also entered in this race for the same owner and trainer, I expect him to compete tomorrow and defect today. I’m handicapping this race under that assumption, but I would use him if he does run in this spot though. Citrus Bay (#2), Mean Jakey (#6), and Business Model (#9) are not eligible to be claimed out of this race. They’ll eligible to run with the waiver in this race. Mean Jakey intrigues me here, making his second start off the layoff. He was a winner here last season and he was competitive in other spots. He came back in a similar race like this and he was a little keen while battling for the lead from his outside draw. He was only two lengths behind, Espionage (#8), who is the morning line favorite in this race. I think he’s vulnerable, as I feel he could regress while the top pick takes a step forward. If they battle on the front end, Martini Blu (#10) could be the beneficiary. McLean Robertson has good numbers with runners coming off wins in their last starts. This one put things together with beaten $12,500 claimers last time out. He’s often close and he typically runs his race. Having the win already at this meet is an advantage. I think Ian Glass is a little interesting for Kim Puhl. She appears to have this nine year old gelding pointing to this spot, while dropping out of starter allowance competition. He’s a 13 time winner, although only one of those scores came on this oval. He was sharp in Ohio over the summer and he could be rounding back into better form while the weather gets warmer here. 

Race 9:

The last Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon begins with a $50K-$40K N2Y claiming race going six furlongs. How cool is Payne (#10), who is a ten year old gelding looking for his fourth straight win at this meet. He is eligible to run in this race because two of those races he competed in, he ran with claiming tags under $32K. He beat a better field of open $50K-$40K claimers, but is eligible for the class relief in open company here. The only question I have is if he’s going to get enough pace in front of him. I do think having Congrats On Fifty (#3) in this race to run with Top GunTommy (#5) in the early stages of this one, certainly helps his cause. We saw a deep closer come over the top and score in the nightcap yesterday at this distance and I see nothing to suggest that Payne can’t do it again. Bourbon Heist (#1) is the main danger and he could get first run on the favorite if Tyler Bacon can maneuver him off the rail or find a seam inside. He won at this condition last out and was claimed by Chris Hartman. He remains eligible to run back at the same level, so Hartman will take full advantage. On deeper tickets, Morello (#9) dropping in for a tag for the first time is a little interesting. He won the Gotham in 2022, but never took off at two turns. His career has been marked by minor injuries and stops and starts. He’s been sidelined since July and he returns while racing with a tag for the first time in his career. When looking at his recent form, he should fit at this level.  

Race 10, The Grade 3 Essex Handicap:

As I mentioned at the top of the page, seven runners are entered in this 1 ⅛ mile handicap for four year olds and up. However, three runners are also entered in the New Orleans Classic Stakes at the Fair Grounds this afternoon. Godolphin owns both Maycocks Bay (#2) and Kinetic (#5). As per Marcus Hersh at DRF, it appears they’re planning on running Kinetic here and keeping Maycocks Bay at his New Orleans base. Tarantino (#3) is shipping in from Southern California and it appears he’s headed here instead of dealing with the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic Champion, Sierra Leone, at the Fair Grounds. I liked Patriot Spirit (#4) at 12-1 in the Fifth Season Stakes here in January and this one just missed, losing by a head to The Wine Steward. He’s been working well at Tampa, but Michael Campbell opted to avoid facing Skippylongstocking and ship back here to run for a purse that is four times more than that of the Challenger Stakes two weeks ago. He’ll likely face early pressure from Tarantino, but I don’t think he has to be on lead to win this race. Since faltering in the Sam F. Davis Stakes last year, he’s put together a nice stretch of races, which includes an open length win in the Illinois Derby. He gave his all last time out and came up short by a narrow margin. While I think Kientic is a serious race horse, I think this son of Constitution can compete with him. Kinetic is coming off a win in the General McArthur Overnight Stakes here on the same card as the Fifth Season Stakes. I don’t think that field was as good as the field that Patriot Spirit had to deal with in his race that day. Kinetic was all out to win that race, despite being a heavy 1-2 favorite. He showed when clearing the N1X allowance condition that he can come from way out of it in the event that a longshot pushes the tempo in this race. Torres opts to ride him today, allowing Bejarano to pick up the mount on the top pick. These should be the two that decide the outcome of this race. 

Race 11:

Arkansas breds going 1 1/16 miles in a $20K N2L claiming race will end the day. When Stuck N Snow (#5) runs at the right level, he’s usually dangerous. He is only 1-16, but many of those races came against significantly better rivals. He just missed in an above average state bred $10K N2L claiming race two back. He tried open $35K N2L company and was thoroughly trounced. I think he is a major player in the nightcap, where he’s facing some vulnerable runners that were recent graduates in maiden claiming races. Holus Bolus (#11) has some upside when making his start off the claim. He was well beaten in an open race at this tag, so he gets class relief while running for the same tag and purse. After a major lull, this barn has been hot once again at this meet. Improvement should be expected, but the post is no picnic. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 82/396 (20.7%, $733.20, $1.85 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 17/70 (24.3%, $136.20, $1.95 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)