Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – 3/8/25 – By Eric Solomon

This is one of the more exciting cards of the meet. Thorpedo Anna makes her four year old debut in the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes this afternoon. Prior to that, we’ll see a fascinating second time starter, Nuit Magique, try to improve upon a brilliant debut. This million dollar baby was late to get her career started, debuting as a four year old, but that debut was worth the wait. First post is set for 12:25 (CT) and with the extra race on the card, Oaklawn is offering an additional Pick-5 starting in the 5th race and an additional Pick-4 starting in Race 6. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start off the afternoon with Arkansas breds running six furlongs in a $15K-$10K claiming event. I’m trying to figure what Hoppin John (#3) is doing in this race. He was claimed for $16K two back at Churchill. Cipriano Contreras brought him here where he came from out of the clouds to score in a state bred N1X allowance race where he earned $78K in purse money. That was a two turn race and this is a sprint, which is also interesting. His one work since that race was slow and this is a significant drop in class. On the other hand, there’s not a ton of state bred races where he’ll fit comfortably and he has finished in the money ion eight of his last nine starts, winning twice in that span. This one could easily beat me in this race, but I suspect he’s not giving off the best vibes right now for his connections. Instead, I’ll play Atta Party (#10) on top, in hopes that Dan Ward has figured him out in the last month. He ran poorly in his three starts since joining Ingrid Mason’s barn over the winter. Prior to those three race, most of his prior efforts would have been good enough to beat this field. Ward hasn’t had the best meet, but he’s quite capable with runners first off the claim. Amazing Success (#9) has two solid efforts at this meet after shipping in from Fort Erie. Aaron Shorter claimed him two back when he was a winner with state bred $10K claimers here. He was a respectable 4th in open company last Friday when making his first start for his new connections. He’s getting a bit of class relief in spite of wheeling back in a little more than a week. On deeper tickets, Classy Socks (#13) is an interesting runner should he get to participate. He ran last Saturday in a state bred allowance race where he was soundly defeated. He typically folds up like a cheap suit when he’s facing better competition, but when he’s well-spotted, like he is today, he typically is more competitive.  

Race 2: 

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in this $30K maiden claiming contest. There’s an interesting dynamic with Full Victory (#2) in this race. He showed absolutely nothing in his first two starts against maiden special weight competition here and at Churchill. He dropped in a $25K-$20K maiden claiming race where he faced six older rivals. He set the temp and faded to 5th, but was much more competitive in that race. He was racing with Lasix for the first time and was also gelded in between his second and third career start. On paper, he’s moving up in class, but in actuality, this is a softer field where he’s facing straight three year olds. I love hidden class moves like this because they’re often overlooked, thus producing solid value. Despite taking a big jump forward in his last start, I see him as a horse that is eligible to move forward once again. I see Ricardo Santana taking over as a jockey upgrade in this spot and I like the way Ron Moquett’s horses have been running lately. At his 12-1 morning line price, I’m definitely intrigued. Cipriano Contreras is going to be a presence with both of his runners in the early daily double, as he sends out the morning line favorite, Sir Gallivant (#3) in this race. He was claimed from Brad Cox two starts back for $35K. Contreras moved him up in class to an optional maiden claiming race where he was entered with a $65K tag. He took some money at the windows, but he was not a factor in the outcome of that race, despite posting a career best Beyer Figure. He makes his third start of the meet today and he’s back routing and competing at a more palatable level for him. He figures to be tough in this spot. Vaden (#13) is the first to draw in off the AE list in this race and he figures to be a player while stretching back out to two turns. If he participates, he’ll likely have to overcome the far outside post, however, as more of a closing type, that isn’t too big of a deal to me. He’s making his second start off the layoff for John Ortiz. This barn was ice cold at the start of the meet, but business has been picking up lately, as he had another winner yesterday. I like this one at longer distances, but he might need one more race before we see his best. 

Race 3:

Beaten $8K claimers will go six furlongs here. Winds of Change (#4) feels like he’s going to be very tough in this race. He’s a ten year old, so I get the drop to the bottom after struggling against some considerably better fields. He finished second three starts back in an open $15-$10K claiming race on this oval. His 4th place finish behind Payne last out was a pretty solid effort. I understand entering him in this race as opposed to the starter allowance race at the end of the card today. The second and third palace finishers from that race are back in that spot, which is definitely deeper than this group. Trikitraki (#13) would be the backup if he draws into this field. He ran last week against a better overall group of time restricted $16K claimers. He was done early that day. This would be a quick turnaround, but his dirt form from the summer would get him close in this spot. If he’s unable to participate, Knicks Story (#11) becomes the other runner deserving of a second chance. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez was on fire early on at this meet, but he’s lost 25 straight races here since going 8-22 to start. He claimed this colt in January and tried him twice against Raymond, who is running in the aforementioned nightcap today. He wasn’t able to keep pace with that one, but he’s another runner that was solid over the summer and if his connections can tap into that, he should be in the mix here. 

Race 4:

This 1 1/16 mile contest is a $12,500 starter allowance race for runners that have started at least once for a $12,500 claiming tag or less since 2023 and have not won twice in the last four months. The last race of the day is a sprint race at this identical condition. I’m going to try Inca Empire (#1) on top for Ingrid Mason. He was entered ambitiously in the Fifth Season Stakes here at the end of January, and that race came up stronger than usual. The Wine Steward won that race is a hard fought battle and this gelding was about 15 lengths behind him. His previous three starts on the dirt at Remington were sharp, winning two of them, including posting a 9-1 upset in an Oklahoma bred stakes race in October. I think this level of competition is much more his speed. Icarus (#7) looked Cashmeup (#10) in the eye in a race at this condition going 1 3/16 miles three weeks ago. He tried late to hold second, well clear of the third place finisher. I think the shorter distance gives him a little more of an edge and it might take a little something away from the morning line favorite, Cashmeup. It’s been a long time since this one found the Winner’s Circle, and that’s usually not something I love in starter allowance races. However, he’s making his second start off the layoff and his recent form is starting to look like a throwback from earlier in his career. Cashmeup was too good last time not to use in this spot. He was full of energy when going the longer distance, and typically, he hasn’t been as effective at this 1 1/16 mile distance. He has run very well in his first two local starts, so he might be the best version of himself when he’s racing here. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Mid-Card Pick-5 begins with this $20K beaten claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. This race is eligible for horses that have either never won three times or they have not won a race in 10 months. Go the Distance (#2) is the pick in this race for me. He was sharp when he debuted here last year and he ran two sharp races at Prairie Meadows after they closed up shop here at Oaklawn. He wasn’t as a sharp when coming back from the layoff though. He dropped in class and ran a credible race here with $35K-$30K N3L claimers in January. Since then, he’s been returned to Doug Anderson’s barn, where he seemed to be sharper. I think this four year old is trending in the right direction and he’s facing a field where many have current form that feels like a total crapshoot. I think he has a higher ceiling right now than most of these. He’s listed at 15-1 on the morning line, and I’d be willing to take him as low as 5-1. Mean Jakey (#11) is making his first start off the layoff for Steve Asmussen. He had a pretty good thing going here last season and he ran pretty well when making his first start off the bench. He went off form toward the end of the spring, but he was very sharp at this level last February. Synthesis (#1) makes his third start off the layoff for David Jacobson. He also sends out the morning line favorite, Fort Warren (#10). That one is a suspect class dropper, coming to this level directly after being claimed for $35K last start. His recent form is lacking and I’m not comfortable taking him at a short price. Synthesis on the other hand is eligible to take a step forward in this spot. He was beaten 2 ½ and 3 lengths in his last two starts against better. He’d be an A line play if he didn’t have a ten pound apprentice riding. While Amanda Poston did recently get her first career win on this course with a closing sprinter at this distance, it’s hard to take too short of a price on her when riding a horse that is likely going to have a pass a bunch of his rivals to win.

Race 6: 

The Mid-Card Pick-4 will begin with a $20K N2L claiming race, carded at six furlongs. The morning line favorite is Ceepeegee (#2), who is coming off a monster effort at this level three weeks ago. He battled hard on the front end early. After dismissing his first rival, he was unable to hold off Lend It Tewmey, who got past him late. He’s had a bit of an identity crisis, not really knowing what he’s going to do best. There isn’t a ton of front end speed and the inner paths seemed decent yesterday. I can’t exclude him, but at short odds, I feel like there’s value in trying to beat him. I’ll make Sweet as Sin (#9) the top pick on the drop in class. He put together a pair of strong efforts in a row at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill this fall. He went to Turfway and was last of 12 in a tough allowance race. He struggled against a tougher group in a $50K N2L claiming race last month. The third place finisher of that race came back to score at that level yesterday. This class relief feels necessary at this point. I’m going to trust he can get it turned around. Ore Mine (#7) is coming out of that same race, and he actually was a little bit better than the top pick. He’s dropping in class for his third start off the layoff. He’s chased fast faces in his last two, but he might be quick enough to take the early lead from Ceepeegee. He’ll get the apprentice, Tyler Bacon, to ride for the first time. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a time restricted $40K-$35K claiming race. Four year olds and up that haven’t won in four months are eligible to go 1 1/16 miles here. Ethereal Road (#5) is two days removed from becoming eligible for this race. He was an easy winner that day over a sloppy course when facing beaten $30K claimers at Churchill in November. That was his first win since taking home the trophy in the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness Undercard at Pimlico in 2022. He broke his maiden on this course and has shown a little more tactical speed recently than he did earlier in his career. Kent Sweezey is doing good things in South Florida right now and he’s got this one working well in the mornings. Vittorio (#6) was claimed by Chris Hartman out of an open $20K claiming race here last month. He came within less than a length of getting to the winner, but he ran out of real estate. He likes to be near the front end and that wasn’t a bad thing here yesterday. While the claiming tag is higher, I don’t think this field is that much deeper than the last field he faced. Eastside Cool (#1) always seems to fire here, winning 7 of 17 times. He’s fast enough to set the pace, but versatile enough that he doesn’t have to. He’s been very consistent lately and while he might need to bump his figures a tad to score, he figures to be right in the conversation here.

Race 8: 

The final Pick-4 wager of the day begins with a maiden special weight contest for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. I’m intrigued with with Fanatical (#4), who makes his third career start today. He was campaigned by William Walden for his first two starts. He debuted the day after Christmas at the Fair Grounds, running a respectable third behind Gunmetal in a fast six furlong maiden race there. He was training there over the winter, but they opted to ship him to New York for his second career try. He ran into a beast that day when Colloquial put on a show. The 7th place finisher from that race came back to win a maiden special weight race at Aqueduct last weekend, so there was some quality in that field. He’s been transferred to Mike Maker, who has had him work twice over this course. He’s sired by Nyquist out of a Malibu Moon mare, so I’m thinking the added distance will be welcome. I think his 12-1 morning line is high, but at 6-1 or better, I see there being some value here. Shepherd (#2) ran well in a race at this level on Rebel Day two weeks ago, coming from off the pace to finish second that day. He definitely showed improvement in that race when he was making his third career start and his second race at this distance. He’s left himself a little too much work to do in the races where he’s been close, so I would like to see Brian Hernandez have him a little closer to the pace today. Liam’s Song (#6) is a little bit of a crazy longshot in this race, starting off at 30-1 on the morning line. He blew the break in his debut when he ran into Rapture, who ran a big race that day for Brad Cox. Shepherd was in that race and he didn’t fare particularly well. Robert Medina doesn’t usually have his horses fully cranked when they debut, especially in route races. He only has one winner with 28 first time starters in route races. His horses typically improve a decent amount in their second starts though. He doesn’t have great numbers with second time starters, so I’m not head over heels for this one as a win candidate, but his runners tend to get better after a few races. While I don’t love seeing Ricardo Santana Jr. hop off this one to ride Brother Tony (#3), Jane Elliot has scored with a few longshots at this meet. The dam’s other runners haven’t done much on the track, but the connections paid $180K for this son of Liam’s Map. I’m expecting improvement and plan on using this one primarily underneath in the vertical exotics. However, I’ll toss him on a few deeper multi-race wagers, and if I see that he’s sitting at somewhere like 50-1, I’ll probably put a few bucks on him to win as well. Tap Into This (#10) is another runner to think about as a backup plan in this race. He ran two credible races in sprints at Churchill and Saratoga to start his career. He’s sired by Tapit, so I get trying him at two turns, especially since the only sprint option here at Oaklawn is six furlongs. However, I think it;s more likely that he’s going to need this race before we see his best route race. 

Race 9:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. There’s a lot of runners that want to be forward in this spot. I’m interested in seeing Outrageously (#5) track the leaders in this spot while cutting back to a sprint. She didn’t look like much early in her career, but after a disastrous effort in a lower level claiming race at Churchill in the spring, she was given some time off. She came back with a pair of strong efforts there this fall while sprinting. She tried two turns last out for the first time since breaking her maiden at Turfway last March. She hit the front back backpedaled late against a good group that day. She’s only sprinted on the dirt twice in her career and those were by far her two best races. She had a few solid works in since her last try, so I think she’ll be ready. If she can find her Churchill form, I think she can contend at this level. I think there’s going to be a lot of interest in seeing what Nuit Magique (#10) can do for an encore. I was skeptical about taking 5-2 on her when debuting last month, especially since Lukas had not won a debut race from a horse that was three or older in over five years. Boy was I wrong though, as this million dollar baby looked like a horse that could be any kind. She pulled away from a nice group to win in convincing fashion. The runner up came back to break her maiden last week, with the 4th place finisher right on her heels for second. I think she’s going to take some attention at the windows, so it feels unlikely that she’s going to be going into the starting gate at 7-2. However, the potential is there for this one and Lukas’ horses typically tend to keep better with more racing experience. On deeper tickets, Ready for Trouble (#1) might be the kind of horse that could benefit from a pace meltdown. Chris Hartman brought her back off a six month layoff in January when she easily dispatched six rivals in a $30K starter allowance race here. That was her best race to date. She’s likely going to be near the back of the pack in the first quarter mile, and she might not be fast enough to beat some of these. I do think she’s the kind of horse that could be rolling late to pick up some of the pieces in the vertical wagers. 

Race 10, The Grade 2 Azeri Stakes:

The reigning three year old filly champion and horse of the year Thorpedo Anna (#1) is primed to make her 2025 debut against six rivals in this Grade 2 contest. She’s never finished worse than second in ten career starts, and most of her eight wins have been dominating performances. She made her three year old debut in the Fantasy Stakes last year where she cruised home as an easy winner. She went on to win three straight Grade 1 races before losing by a head in the Travers when facing the boys. She battled hard to score in the Cotillion and was an easy winner in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. She has the rail and is quick enough to control the pace if Brian Hernandez wants to go that route, She’s also comfortable stalking the pace should C.J. McMahon try to wire this field like he did with Wild Bout Hilary (#4) in her last two starts. While this might be the spot where she’s the most vulnerable, it’s hard to envision her losing to this group of ladies. I’ll take the dimes and move on. Jody’s Pride (#3) is the one that I’ll use as a backup. She ran very well in the Inside Information Stakes last month at Gulfstream when she was making her four year old debut. She showed a lot of promise as a two year old, narrowly losing to Just F Y I in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita. She had an abbreviated campaign after struggling in the Ashland. I like her pattern of works for Jorge Abreu after that race where she set a career top Beyer Figure. If someone can pull off the upset, this is the filly that feels best suited to do so. 

Race 11:

We’ll end the day with a $12,500 starter allowance race at six furlongs. Horses must have started for a $12,500 claiming tag at least one time since 2023 and they also cannot have won twice since November 8th. This is a fairly contentious race, but I’m going to lean on Top Gun Tommy (#11) to find the Winner’s Circle. He came up a bit short when making his first start since November last month. Payne, who is a ten year old gelding that has been on fire at this meet, beat him that day. He has 11 wins in 34 starts and should be a little better today than he was last time out. Raymond (#9) has found a way to get home in time in his last two starts at this meet. One of those races was a $10K claiming race, so that doesn’t count toward the eligibility of the non-winners of 2 races in the last four months. He clearly likes this course and apprentice Tyler Bacon has a good feel for what this horse wants to do. He should be right in the mix as well. Lightning Struck (#3) is coming out of the same race that Top Gun Tommy was in. He was third that day, about a half length behind the top pick. His ceiling might not be as high as some of the others in this spot, but he his consistent and he could get the first jump on Raymond, who figures to be rolling late. On deeper tickets, I’ll back up with Summer Splash (#5). I wasn’t sold on him when he was making his first start in three months in a $12,500 claiming race. That was his first start since Asmussen claimed him for $25K at Churchill. He’s won three straight races, but staying sound has been an issue lately. He’s won 9 of 19 career races, so there’s ability there. I have mixed feelings about him in this race, but he’s not a horse that I want to allow to beat me. 

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 74/357 (20.7%, $676.40, $1.89 ROI)

March 2025 Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 9/31 (29.0%, $79.40, $2.56 ROI)

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)