Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Friday, 12/12/25 – By Eric Solomon

Oaklawn Park kicks off their 2025-2026 racing season today with a loaded ten race card with a total of 123 horses entered. For the first time, the 64 day meet will be split into two parts with the 13 Day Holiday Racing Season going from 12/12/25-1/4/2026. They’ll be dark for 3 ½ weeks before kicking off the Classic Racing Season on 1/30/26, which then runs through 5/2/2026, spanning 51 days of racing. I’m planning to have regular content in this space up through Arkansas Derby Day on 3/28/26. The jockey room has been bolstered this year with Luis Saez and Joel Rosario planning on being here for the majority of the meet. Both last year’s leading rider, Francisco Arrieta, and leading trainer, Steve Asmussen, will be back and well-represented during this meet as well. The Opening Day feature is the $150K Advent Stakes for two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll light the lamp for the 25-26 meet with a maiden special weight contest for two year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. Seven of the eight fillies entered in this race will be going two turns for the first time. The morning line favorite in this race is Rockin Robin (#5), who is one of two horses trained by Mark Casse in this race. She is the lone runner in this field who has a route under her belt, and I thought that was an exceptional effort in a race where she went off at 18-1. She was carried out wide into the first turn and conceded a lot of ground when basically running in the four path all the way around that bend. Axel Concepcion had to engage early in order to try to avoid losing so much ground on the far turn, and she locked in battle with the 6-5 favorite, putting her head in front at the top of the stretch. She was able to win that battle, but her stablemate ended up winning the war, coming with an over the top run to pull away late. She finished third for the third consecutive time that day. While I was thinking about playing her against her in this spot, upon watching that replay a few times, I do think she’s the best horse in this race. Cristian Torres was the leading rider here during the 2023-24 meet, so I’m very comfortable backing horses that he’s riding. There’s a pair of runners that I’m expecting improvement from while stretching out to two turns for the first time. Quality Ami (#6) hasn’t shown a lot in her three career starts, but her last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis was clearly better than her first two tries in Kentucky. The dam has foaled several really nice horses including Ami’s Flatter, Ami’s Gizmo, and Kopion to name a few. Horses foaled by her dam, Galloping Ami, are 3-3 on this oval, all of which came in route races. The dam sire is Victory Gallop, who was 2-2 here, winning both the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby in 1998, en route to a runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby and a win in the Belmont Stakes. Horses sired by Essential Quality are 3-18 in their first route races, so she could prove to be a horse for course that will appreciate the longer distance. Jolly Jolene (#3) makes her third career start and her first in a route after a third place finish in her most recent start at Churchill at the end of October. She’s a half to Hades, who was the winner of the 2024 Holy Bull Stakes, upsetting the two year old champion Fierceness. Her full sister was a stakes winner at two before an injury prematurely ended her racing career. She improved from her first start to her second start when going from six to seven furlongs. Her sire, Girvin, gets 13% winners with horses routing for the first time. 

Race 2: 

Arkansas bred fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this state bred $20K maiden claiming race. The complexion of this race definitely changes if Not For Everyone (#13) draws in off the AE list. She drew the rail in her debut here in April and she didn’t break all that well. After getting away last of the 11, she worked her way up into midpack and made a decent bid to finish second at this level. She’s been away since that race, but she’s been working well enough for her second try. An outside post would certainly be more advantageous than her rail drew on debut. If she doesn’t get in, Like a Diamond (#12) would get the nod for me. She debuts for Jaime Gonzalez, who has had a few winners in state bred maiden allowance races over the last few meets. He hasn’t had the same success in these state bred maiden claiming races, but I do like the way this horse has been training in the mornings. Drawing outside here could work out well for her as well. Ghost Money (#2) is another firster in this spot, and with Luis Saez taking the mount, I assume she’ll be a shorter price than Like a Diamond when the gate pops open. Jonas Gibson is another trainer that doesn’t have a great track record with first time starters, but the works are solid for this level. Paris Accord (#3) is a longer priced option who has been sidelined since the end of the 24-25 meet.  Her strongest effort came in her first career start, so the fact that she’s been freshened up could work in her favor. Francsico Arrieta rode her well enough two starts ago to be invited to hop back in the saddle today.

Race 3:

Starter allowance races at Oaklawn are typically very competitive and there are a few good ones on this Opening Day card, starting with this $50K one. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have started at least one time for a $50K claiming tag or less and has never won three times. Note that this race begins a new Mid-Card Pick-5 wager. First Player (#2) catches the eye in this race, making his second start off the Steve Asmussen claim. He’s gone without a win in over a year, but he’s been running in some races that were much tougher than this at times. Both of his wins came when running in two turn races on the dirt, and he hasn’t consistently had the chance to run in races like that. He’s had some various spots of trouble, but he’s coming into this protected spot in good form. I think both Determinedly (#7) and Gun Runner Charlie (#8) are going to be more popular at the windows, so I’m expecting a reasonable price on this one, which I think is priced well at his 4-1 morning line figure. I’m not convinced that Gun Runner Charlie is going to run back to his last race. He is coming off a big effort at Del Mar where he dashed to the lead from his rail draw and led all the way on a course that was kind to front end speed. In recent seasons, that kind of running style has not fared well early on in the meet here at Oaklawn. Determinedly is a bit of a wild card in this race. He’s priced at 3-1 on the morning line, so I’m not sure how much I want to invest in him at this number. However, his race at Saratoga in an off the turf allowance three starts ago was very sharp. Casse brought him to Canada where he was not as effective on the Tapeta at Woodbine. He’s done his best work at two turns on a fast dirt course, which figures to be the case for him today. He’s definitely worth covering in this spot. Stoke the Fire (#3) and Shifty Gold (#5) are two longer priced options that are worth thinking about in this spot. I’m a little more interested in Shifty Gold, making his first start for Lane Johnston. He was privately purchased after finishing 6th in a beaten claiming sprint race at Aqueduct while racing for Chad Brown. He ran well in two turn allowance races at Monmouth this summer, with his lone poor effort coming when he was caught wide on a course that was kind to inside speed in the early races on Haskell Day. Johnston has good numbers with new acquisitions, and as a three year old, he might not have found his ceiling yet. Stoke the Fire makes his first start since a strong maiden score in April on this oval. He was making his first start for Cipriano Contreras that day who had a great 24-25 meet and was really good early on last season. I do think he might need this start, but he was bred to be a good horse. The dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner, scoring one of those wins in the Apple Blossom on this oval. He showed improvement in two turn dirt races, so I do believe they have figured out what this one does best. 

Race 4:

Beaten $10K claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race which will start the new Mid-Card Pick-4 wager. There’s quite the mix of horses in this race that either never won three times or have not won a race in six months. The morning line favorite in this race is Ben Franklin (#2), who is a suspicious class dropper that hasn’t been seen on the track since being claimed for $35K back here in January. The works are slow and he’s been more effective in two turn races in his career, so he’s not one that I’m interested in using in this wide open affair. Suncroft (#13) would be the morning favorite if he does draw in off the AE list, but he’s another suspicious class dropper that isn’t a very strong finisher. While his recent efforts are more encouraging, he’s not one I’d be excited to use either. I landed on Easy Fast (#4) as the top pick in this spot, shipping here from Hawthorne for James Divito. Soundness has been a bit of an issue for this five year old son of Violence. Despite some gaps in his running lines, he had a nice stretch of four races going into his last start where he lost the rider after stumbling out of the gate. He appears to be no worse for wear and he’s had a few weeks to get settled in his new surroundings here in Hot Springs. Optimal Courage (#6) is a proven winner, finding the Winner’s Circle 20 times in his 54 race career. He’s a seven year old gelding that may have lost a step. He’s been sidelined since June and he has only one recorded work since that race, but I imagine this veteran will be ready to go. He ran well off a similar layoff at the beginning of 2025 and he does have a win over this course. Another old pro that is entered in this race is Jackman (#8). His recent form at Remington isn’t great and the shippers from there have historically struggled in their first local start here. However, he does boast a strong 8-21 record on this oval, where he also finished in the money another eight times. He was facing tougher here last season, and he scored once, winning a restricted $35K claiming race in March. I’ll wager that a return to his preferred course will wake him up. 

Race 5: 

The second of five two year old races on this card is a $50K maiden claiming contest going six furlongs. This race will begin the $1 Classix Pick-Six wager. I liked the debut effort from Rudie Won’t Fail (#3) in his last start at the end of September at Delaware. He missed the break on a sloppy course and spotted the field several lengths. Maddie Rowland, who was riding that day, remained patient and let him find his stride before asking him to pick up the tempo on the turn. He finished well to get into 4th, beaten less than two lengths that afternoon while galloping out in front. He shipped here from Delaware a few weeks ago and drilled a sharp bullet work on this course last week. Protonico is an underrated sire as his horses have 18% of their sprint races on the dirt thus far in his stud career. I see him as a horse that can improve in this wide open race. September Silver (#10) is a horse that has caught a sealed and sloppy track in his last two starts in Kentucky. He wasn’t awful in his debut against a decent field in maiden allowance company on a fast track at Ellis in August. He was in traffic for the better part of that, but he did run on once he was in the clear. He struggled at two turns in the slop at Churchill at that level in September. He was gelded after that start and returned two months later on another sloppy track in Louisville. He showed some early interest before fading late. The weather forecast is solid, so I do see him getting on a fast track once again in this race. Miskell (#12) makes his third career start for Mark Casse in this race. He drops for a tag below his claiming price and returns to a one turn race after a dull effort at Churchill last out when trying two turns. The dam was a multiple stakes winning sprinter, so there’s a reasonable chance that this son of Tapit could take a step forward in this spot. 

Race 6: 

The traditional closing day race at Oaklawn is the 1 ¾ Mile Trail’s End Starter Allowance, so it;s only fitting that they run the Trail’s Head Starter Allowance race on opening day. This nine furlong race is for horses that have started at least one time for a $12,500 claiming tag or less since the start of 2023. This is another race where there is a very nice horse that is one the AE list. Gewurtztraminer (#13) has developed into a very solid racehorse. He was a two-time winner here last season. He has eight consecutive in the money finishes as the last time he finished off the board came here in an optional claiming/N2X allowance race last March. His last four starts have come on the turf, but he has six wins in 15 career starts on the dirt. Contreras has him in rock solid form as he comes to an end of his four year old campaign. He has enough tactical speed to be able to work out a trip from his outside draw if he can draw into this spot. If he doesn’t get into the body of the field, the one I want is Keen Cat (#2). He failed in a turf spot at Ellis in August and then was sidelined until the middle of November when he came back to race in a seven furlong sprint in one of the Claiming Crown races at Churchill. Those races were quite salty and while the inflated purse was nice, that race felt more like a spot for him to tighten the screws. He’s a better animal when going two turns and he was very sharp in similar spots here last season. He just missed in a race at this distance and condition back in January and he feels like a big player with this group.

Race 7: 

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this maiden special weight contest that begins the Late Pick-4. There are some well-meant first time starters in this race, and horses trained by Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen are likely to take a decent amount of the public wagering dollars. Those two runners, Eagle Dance (#1) and Cognizant (#2) have drawn the two rail posts and both feel like they could be vulnerable in this race. The morning line favorite is Winning Matters (#7) for Dallas Stewart. She was very good in her debut last month at Churchill, finishing second by less than a length when going 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Joel Rosario has been named on several of Asmussen’s better runners on this card, so seeing him take this mount for Stewart, who doesn’t ride for him often, feels like a positive sign. This one will definitely be on my tickets, but I do feel the price might be a little shorter than I’d like. I’m going to a try a longshot as the top pick and use Sangarette (#6) for Ray Ashford. This barn doesn’t have as high of a profile as some of the other outfits here at Oaklawn, but his horses are capable of winning first out. There is some precocity in this pedigree as the dam was a debut winner and she foaled a debuting winner as well. Her sire, Charlatan, is 3-30 with his debut runners in dirt sprints early on in his stud career. However, he was an impressive debut winner at this distance and he was awesome on this oval when winning the Arkansas Derby in 2020. This filly was purchased for $500K at the OBS Sale in May of this year, so she clearly looks the part. Yasmin (#3) is another first time starter that I’ll want to use in this spot. She’s sired by Yaupon who has 15 winners from 58 debut runners (26%) in dirt sprint races thus far. She’s the first foal to race from a Violence dam that didn’t do a ton on the racetrack. The AM works are solid for Randy Morse, who was an 8% winning percentage with debuting two year olds over the last five years. 

Race 8, The $150K Advent Stakes:

The first stakes race of the meet features seven nice two year olds dashing 5 ½ furlongs. This race will also start the $3 Get Out Pick-3 wager, covering the last three races of the day. There will be a 15% takeout for that wager (There’s a 21% Takeout for the Rolling Pick-3 wagers earlier in the card). This is a nice group here headed by the morning line favorite, Spun D M C (#6), who was last seen finishing a distant second to Gallivant in the Bowman Mill Stakes. Randy Morse opted not to face that one again in the Ed Brown Stakes two weeks ago at Churchill (Gallivant was 4th in that race). Instead, he ships to cut back in distance after folding up in a short field last time. Timeform suggests he’s going to be the quickest away from the gate, but I do think he’s going to be pressured hard. While it’s fair to argue that the final margin of victory was inflated for the winner since there was a large chasm between this colt and the third palace finisher in that race, I don’t like how easily he gave up the lead despite setting strong fractions. I’m going to slot him in the C line to start. If early speed is faring well, I will definitely upgrade him. However, on a fair track, I think he can be had. I think the Asmussen runner, Strong Potential (#7) is worth considering. His lone start came on July 4th at Ellis where he was caught in between rivals while pressing the pace. Things got a little tight and he had to back out of that space. He tipped out to the center of the course and tracked down the leader in the late stages to get the win. The Beyer Figure for that early season race came back on the lighter side, but the Equibase Figure suggests that effort would make him more competitive with this field. He’s been working in the mornings for Asmussen over this oval. Horses sired by Yaupon have won 28% of their dirt sprint races. He’s drawn well for this race and I think he could easily upset this field. While I don’t think he beat much, Boca Beach Club (#4) ran a very strong race to win his debut at Hawthorne. He was away slow, but he took a hold of the bit down the backstretch and advanced willingly into second. He came up to the race favorite and went by with relative ease, drawing clear and stopping the clock in a strong 56:4. James Divito does a nice job with two year olds and this one should be in position to make a strong late bid once again. On deeper tickets, Ganass (#5) ships here after trying two turns in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at the end of October. He set the early tempo before fading to 5th that afternoon. The winner of that race did not run back in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last month, but the runner-up Universe did and he ran another solid race to be second. This son of War Front was very good in his two races at one turn on the dirt, winning both by open lengths. I think he can stalk the pace and make a run at the pacesetters. 

Race 9: 

The $5 Last Call Daily Double wager (15% Takeout) begins with this N1X allowance contest for three year olds and up, which drew an overflow field of 14. Super Cruise (#5) was very impressive in his two starts here in March and April. He ran very well on the eve of the Arkansas Derby. He broke from the rail and was near the back of the pack for the first half mile of that 1 1/16 mile maiden allowance. He switched out to the outside and moved up willingly, without really being asked. He was five wide at the start of the turn and he catapulted himself to the lead, only to be nailed late. He was battling hard that day and may have brushed with the rail in midstretch. He came back with a duplicate effort a few weeks later, holding on to the lead late. He was green in the stretch both times, which was likely caused by failing to switch leads. He’s been away since April, so he has every right to improve at this point in his three year old season. This is a tougher field, but I think this well bred son of Uncle Mo definitely has some ability and I think he can get the job done with this group. Uncle Caesar (#10) is a logical backup here. Brad Cox claimed him for $50K at Parx in his most recent start. Cox doesn’t deal with a ton of claimers, but he has a 38% winning percentage first off the claim dating back to the start of 2024. This Uncle Mo gelding is 7-17 in his career, so he’s a proven winner. He still qualifies for the open N1X allowance condition here due to the purse structure of the allowance races he won at Penn National earlier in the year. I don’t love him as the favorite in this race, but Cox absolutely has the ability to improve a runner first off the claim.

Race 10: 

Arkansas bred two year old fillies will close out the opening card. They’ll dash six furlongs in this state bred maiden allowance race. Despite this race being the first opportunity for state bred two year olds to compete against each other, 11 of the 12 runners in this field have at least one race of experience under their belts. There are some similarities between Rockin the Lane (#2) and Brunia (#5), who should be two of the shorter priced options in this contest. Both horses are coming here from Churchill after in the money finishes in open maiden claiming races there. Both fillies were foaled by mares that have produced successful runners that have wins over this course. Rockin the Lane is more appealing to me, as she’s trained by Chris Hartman, who has a strong track record with second time starters. Tyler Bacon was impressive during his first meet here last year, and he was given a lot of opportunities to ride for this barn. She caught an off track for her debut, so I think it’s fair to think that she could improve on a fast surface today. Brunia showed some early foot last out and she led the field the majority of the way at long odds when facing $50K maiden claimers in Louisville. The top pick was facing a stronger group, which is fair to point out. I’ll still back up with this filly since there isn’t a wealth of early speed signed up on paper for this race. A longshot that is a little interesting to me is Stand Up Triple (#12) on the outside at 30-1 on the morning line. The dam has foaled a runner that was good enough to win some smaller stakes races. She was paired with High North as a stallion, who doesn’t have too many horses in training yet. He did win both the Northern Spur Stakes on this course and the Iowa Derby in 2018. He sired another horse, Castle Gap, who was at least competitive in these state bred maiden special weight races. This filly debuted on a sloppy track at Colonial Downs where she missed the break. She was a big longshot in that open race and she was never really asked to produce a serious run. She’s worked three times since, including a respectable drill on a fast track here two weeks ago. I think the outside draw could help her cause and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run a better race today.

Final 2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 88/432 (20.4%, $771.20, $1.79 ROI)