Last year, this was the race where Journalism stamped himself as a legitimate player on the Derby Trail. He beat a trio of Baffert runners rather easily before going to win Grade 1 races like the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness, and the Haskell. This is a race with a rich history, as prior to 2014 it was run as the Hollywood Futurity. There are several quality horses over the years to emerge as a winner of this race. There are some extremely talented runners that have become top quality stallions, such as A.P Indy, Point Given, Into Mischief, Pioneerof the Nile, Lookin’ At Lucky, and Violence. While some of this list were Preakness and/or Belmont winners, there has only been one winner of this race who went on to win the Derby, being Real Quiet back in 1997.
This year, there’s another trio of Bob Baffert runners that are looking to separate themselves from the pack. The most notable runner is Litmus Test, who is continuing to improve. He’ll five five lesser accomplished runners in this spot today.
Los Alamitos Race Course Race 8: The Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity (Post Time: 4:00 PM PST)
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Acknowledgemeplz (7-2 ML): This Bucchero colt was fast when breaking his maiden in a 6 ½ furlong maiden allowance race at Santa Anita at the end of October. He drew the rail and he led every step of the way, holding off Blacksmith for Bob Baffert. He’s the second choice on the morning line after that big maiden score, but it’s not a great sign that Blacksmith did not run well in his next start. Also, this one is bred to be a sprinter. The dam has been productive, but most of her winners have come at one turn. Unless there is a strong speed bias on this course, I have trouble believing that he’s going to be hanging around in the final furlong.
2 – Provenance (5-1 ML, 40-1 Future @ Caesar’s): This colt is the darling of Spendthrift Farm as expectations are sky high for the first foal to race from the seven time Grade 1 winning mare, Monomoy Girl. She was naturally paired with Into Mischief, who is a gold standard North American sire. He debuted in a nice race where Intrepido was able to outfinish him after he broke a bit slowly. Intrepido went on to beat the Baffert’s in the American Pharoah Stakes in October. He came back to win in gate to wire fashion when cutting back from a mile to a six furlong race at Santa Anita in his most recent start. He’s been away for 2 ½ months and now he comes back to a two-turn race for his first try against winners. It’s fascinating that his Future Book Odds are lower than Litmus Test, who is a much shorter price in this race, however, that figures to be strictly based on pedigree. Juan Hernandez likely had his choice and he chose his shorter price stablemate, leaving this mount open for Kyle Frey.
3 – Litmus Test (4-5 ML, 55-1 Future @ Caesar’s): After winning on debut at Del Mar this summer, this $875K son of Nyquist has gone on to battle in three straight Grade 1 races, including a trip to Keeneland where he faded late to be third. Ted Noffey has had his number in his two starts, but he was able to make some ground on him, getting about three lengths closer to him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. One on hand, Baffert sent out both Getaway Car and Gaming in this race last year after competing in the Breeders’ Cup, and neither was as sharp as they were at Del Mar. On the other hand, those colts ran into a beast in Journalism, and there doesn’t seem to be any other runner in this field that is close to that kind of horse. I like the steady progression of races for him and I think this is going to be a confidence building spot for him moving forward. While there isn’t a lot of value on him in a race like this, when looking at his pedigree and his human connections, 55-1 on the Future Book for the Derby feels like one of the better value wagers on the board at the moment. Paladin’s win in the Remsen helped shift the board at Caesar’s, and at this number, you’re getting an improving horse that was less than two lengths behind the Breeders’ Cup Champ. Even though he’s not facing much, if he wins this race, I don’t think you’re going to get a price close to that 55-1 number at any point in the winter.
4 – Blacksmith (5-1 ML, 55-1 Future @ Caesar’s): The third of three Baffert runners is looking for his first win. He was gaining on Acknowledgemeplz on debut, but that one had the pace edge and the advantage of having a race under his belt. His last race at Del Mar was not very good though. While he was bottled up down the backstretch, he never fired when he had some space to operate. He plummeted to the back of the field and ran on with mild interest to be 5th. He’s been working well and I do think he’ll appreciate being closer to the front when going two turns for the first time. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Curlin mare, so there’s reason to believe that he’ll move forward at two turns. Outside of the favorite, there’s not much on paper in this race, but his last race does give me a little cause for pause.
5 – American King (30-1 ML): This American Pharoah colt is the other maiden in this field, and his two races were far less impressive than Blacksmith’s pair of races. His last race on the turf was a little better than his debut on the dirt, however, I don’t think he’s in the same stratosphere as the other five runners.
6 – Captivator (6-1 ML): John Sadler sends out this Charlatan colt for Hronis racing after a big maiden win in his last start. That race came in an optional maiden claiming race where he was entered with the waiver. The dam has produced a few stakes winners in prior years. Sadler has done very well with taking the blinkers off and going from sprints to routes, however, he is 0-4 over the last five years when taking the blinkers off for horses that are routing for the first time. I do like him better than Acknowledgemeplz, which would make him the most desirable non-Baffert horse in this race, but I’m not sure that means a ton.
The verdict: 3-2-4
While this race is not really bettable for me, I think Litmus Test (#3) is just better than his five rivals at this point. While Baffert had a short priced runner run a dull race in this race last year and this course can be a little tricky, I think this colt is going to be fine. If you have some strong price opinions in some other legs of the surrounding multi-race sequences, I’d be fine using this one as a short priced single. I do like the 55-1 Derby Future Book Number that Caesar’s is offering. I think he has a higher ceiling and I don’t think he’s too far off the pace right now, so that number feels quite juicy.
Provenance (#2) will be the fan favorite as he’ll try to make his momma proud. I’m okay with the speed figure regression last out when cutting back to a sprint after debuting at two turns. I thought that was a bit of an odd move, but getting races to fill in Southern California can be a challenge. Also Baffert is constantly juggling trying to keep as many of his horses separated. He should take a step forward here.
Blacksmith (#4) is still a maiden and he’s coming off a dull effort last time out. Perhaps being forwardly placed in this spot will help his cause. On the flip side, I think there is some cheap speed to his inside and outside that could create some issues. He’s bred to handle the stretch out and is Frey doesn’t send his stablemate hard from the inside, Kimura might try to send him.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
