Monmouth Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 6/20/26 – By Eric Solomon

It figures to be another beautiful weekend at the Jersey Shore. Monmouth is offering an eight race, Saturday afternoon card to kick off the weekend. Half of the races are on the grass and the rails will be set at 12 feet. The first post this afternoon is scheduled for 12:50 PM (EDT).

I’ll be covering the Monmouth Park meet for the 6th consecutive year on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a beaten $16K-$14K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles over the turf course. All seven runners here qualified for this race under the N2L condition. Three of these runners faced off against each other two weeks ago, but the new faces are a little more interesting to me. I landed on Only You (#7), who is a three year old filly with the least amount of racing experience in this field. She broke her maiden in the fall with $35K maiden claimers at Gulfstream on the turf where she worked out a nice stalking trip from an outside post. Her three turf races there are better than her four other starts, so after getting a little time off, I think returning to the grass will be a good fit for her this afternoon. While she’ll be facing older horses for the first time, this figures to be the softest group that she’s seen to date. Mike Dini sent out both El Ma’any (#2) and Radar Loop (#5) at this level two weeks ago, and they finished second and third, respectively. While El Ma’any was clearly the better animal on that day, she has yet to string together two decent efforts. Radar Loop ran a better race than she had been running at Tampa and she does own a win over this course. Sonny Leon put her on the lead in her last start, and I’m not sure that’s where she’s going to do her best work. I like the rider switch to Samuel Marin as Leon will try again with El Ma’any. The morning line favorite is the New York shipper, Princess Summer (#6) for Mike Maker. She has better speed figures than most of the field and she’s taking a sizable drop in class for her local debut. My issue with her is that she doesn’t have a ton of early speed and she often winds up leaving herself too much work to do. It’s not uncommon that horses like this are able to win races like this on class alone, so I do want to be covered to her somewhat. However, I’d prefer longer prices on some of the younger horses in this spot. 

Race 2:

The first dirt race of the day is a $7,500-$6,500 N3L claiming contest going six furlongs. I’m having trouble finding a better option than Mambrino (#5) in this spot, who figures to be a heavy post time favorite. Paco Lopez rides this one again after being claimed at this level by Jose Sanchez last month. He was a little more than two lengths better than Cassation (#1), who also runs here. That runner is generally better on the turf and he’s only 2-41 in his career. I also think this a spot where that seven year old could bounce a bit after a strong effort when making his first start off a four month hiatus. Mambrino went for the lead last time, but with the speedy More Power (#3) signed on for this spot, I expect Paco Lopez to track and pounce with this one. Lopez is winning at a ridiculous 45% clip at this meet right now and while he tends to upgrade just about every mount he gets, he often winds up on the best horses and this one is just better than this group on paper. I’ll back up with Real Blues (#6), who figures to be lingering near the back of the pack in the early going. He’s making his first start off the claim for Kelly Breen. He was plucked out of a race at this level at the end of March by Kelly Breen. His Parx form was poor, but he was sharp in two starts here last summer, scoring with better horses at this distance. I don’t think the pace scenario is in his favor in this compact field, but I do except him to run a better race after a brief freshening

Race 3:

New Jersey breds are in the spotlight today at Monmouth with a pair of turf sprints at the optional claiming/N1X allowance level. Colts and geldings will go 5 ½ furlongs on the grass here, while fillies and mares will do the same at this condition in the 5th race. Smithwick’s Spice (#3) is the favorite in this spot, and while this ten year old gelding has been a stalwart in the past in races like this, it’s fair to say that he’s lost a step at this stage. He has 15 career wins in 58 starts and he’s 10-30 on the turf. He has five wins in 11 career tries on this course here at Monmouth. Jorge Gonzalez has been his regular rider for the last two years and he’s getting the assignment again this afternoon. He’s running for a better purse and he’s facing softer competition than the group he faced in an open $22K-$18K claiming race here last month. He had traffic troubles two back, and he’s facing a group where the primary opponents are younger, speed and fade types. While this might feel like a spot to play against the old pro, I do think he’s set up well to run a better race in his third start off the layoff. If he’s hanging around near his 5/2 morning line number, I think he’s offering proper value. There’s an interesting jockey dynamic with Paco Lopez landing on Really Quick (#7) for Joan Milne. She also sends out Midnight Story (#9), who ran a huge race at this level last summer when getting on the turf for the first time. Chantal Sutherland rides that one for Milne, who looks better on paper. However, with Lopez electing to ride Really Quick, I do wonder if the barn is higher on this Accelerate colt who is adding blinkers for the first time. He wasn’t terrible in his debut on the turf at the Meadowlands last fall, but he probably wasn’t fully cranked for that race either. He came back on the dirt and was a longshot winner on May 17th, with Paco riding him that day (and going off at 13-1!). He struggled two weeks later, but Superfractor (#10), who is a main track only runner in this race, was a beast in that spot where he won with ease and put up a huge figure while doing so. The runner up from that race was a winner here last weekend. I’d like a little better price than his 5-1 morning line number, but I’m thinking that we’re not going to get that here. If I were playing this race on track, this is one that I might see if I could possibly lock him in between 6-1 and 8-1 in the fixed odds market (which also could be a pipe dream). I do think he’s worth using on the multi-race tickets though. The Pauly Factor (#8) is another speedy and lightly raced runner that makes some sense in this spot. He broke his maiden in the fall when going five furlongs upstate at the Meadowlands. He wasn’t terrible when making his last start as a two year old in open company at Laurel. He went to the sidelines over the winter and he came back to finish off the board in an open allowance race that was originally scheduled for the turf. Drawing outside of Paco Lopez and Really Quick is not ideal, but he’s another one that is worth considering in this spot. 

Race 4:

Beaten $5K claimers will go six furlongs on the dirt here. Gowokegobroke (#1) is worth another look in this race while making his first start off the claim for Jorge Delgado. He was claimed by Patrick McBurney at Tampa in February and he proceeded to run four dull efforts for his new barn. He was claimed by Delgado after running a dullish 4th at this level in his at the end of May, His dirt form for Maria Bowersox prior to that was pretty solid, and good enough to score at this level. There’s another ten year old gelding in this race that has a live look, and that is Chuck Willis (#3). He faded late at this level two back and then wheeled back seven days later where he finished a respectable second in starter allowance company. He drops back to a level where he can be competitive and he’s clearly the speed of the speed in this spot. We’re only going to see one race on the dirt prior to his race, so it will be hard to judge how speed is doing. The course has been a little deeper at this meet so horses have needed to be fit to be competitive. He’s making his third start off the layoff, so I do expect him to put forth a better try today.

Race 5: 

New Jersey bred fillies and mares get their turn to dash 5 ½ furlongs on the turf course here. I’ve been waiting for Lidia Rose (#8) to get back on the grass, and I like her a lot in this spot this afternoon. She was a 14-1 winner on debut at the Big M in the fall before going to the sidelines for the winter. She was flat in her return on the dirt, but she was much better when finishing 4th at this level when going two turns on the main track last month. She’s sired by Sea Wizard out of a Park Avenue Ball mare, so I’ve always thought she was going to be better at one turn. I think the two turn race will help her as she cuts back to the sprint today. I think she has a big chance in this race. It kind of stinks for Golden Ring (#12) that she’s on the outside looking in for this race, but I do think she’s a horse that could be rolling late in this spot if she does get to participate. The outside stall in these races coming out of the chute is not ideal and she’s likely going to have to come from last to try to win this race, which is not an easy task on this course. However, I do think there are runners that could be tiring late in this spot and she almost pulled off passing every runner in a 12 horse contest on this course last summer. Slick Merlin (#3) would be where I’d land as the backup if Golden Ring does not draw in. She ran well to be second in the Colleen Stakes here on the turf last summer. Her last three starts have been abysmal, so perhaps an inside draw and the return to the lawn can help her find her better form. 

Race 6:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs on the dirt in this optional $12,500 claiming/$6,250 starter allowance race. Just Relax (#6) is going to be a heavy favorite in this race for Michael Simone and Paco Lopez, however, he’s being asked to run back in seven days after running a career top figure at Delaware last Saturday against a better field. While he’s dropping in class to a level where he was a winner two starts back, I think it’s asking a lot of this horse. I’ll cover with him because I’m not going to let a short priced horse ridden by Paco Lopez eliminate me from a multi-race bet, especially since I’m going a heavy on a price in the previous race. However, I want to try to beat him with a few horses here, starting with the jersey bred, Electric Eel (#4). He’s making his first start since February, following a similar pattern to last summer. He made his return last year in the John J Reilly Handicap, which is always a salty race for state bred sprinters. He was flat in that race, but he came back with a much sharper effort in his second start off the layoff. He’s making his first start off the layoff for a barn that does well with horses off similar breaks. All three of his career scores have come on this course. Foil (#1) is another runner that is worth using in this spot. He continues to climb up the class ladder after two straight wins with lesser. He came with a wide bid to score in the slop here last out and he now moves to protected company for the first time since his debut. He paired his Beyers off a lengthy layoff and could be sitting on a bigger effort in his third start off the bench. He’ll need to improve to score, but I think it’s certainly possible. 

Race 7:

The $5 Late Double begins with a $16K-$14K maiden claiming even going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This is a wide open race, so I’m siding against the favored New York invader, Jet Off (#9). I think the outside draw is not ideal for this first time gelding and while this class dropper fits on figures, he’s still 0-10 and has never really come close to getting his picture taken. I’m looking for a reversal of form for Hurricane Jerry (#2) here while getting back on the turf. His three turf races all came against better horses and those efforts were much better than his four dirt starts. He’s been well-beaten in his first two starts of the meet, but he should be in better shape while getting back to what I believe he is going to do best. One Bid (#6) is an 0-11 maiden in this race, and you have to go all the way back to his second career start to find his last turf try. He struggled that day, but he’s a better horse now after several starts under his belt in 2026. His synthetic efforts are decent so I’d be willing to give him another look at this level on the grass. Restless Passion (#5) gets back on the turf after never showing up in the slop last out at this level in a race that was taken off the lawn. Paco Lopez rode him to be a respectable 6th in his last turf start at Tampa at this level. It’s conceivable that he can move forward in this race for Mike Dini, who wins 28% when teaming up with Paco Lopez at Monmouth.

Race 8:

We’ll wrap up the afternoon with another $12,500 optional claiming/$6,250 starter allowance sprint, however, this one is for the ladies. Charlie’s Beauty (#3) and Unsolved Mystery (#4) dueled in a similar spot in the slop last month and they were over six lengths better than Duela Dent (#6). All three runners are back in this spot today. Unsolved Mystery was a head better that day, but I think the slop might have neutralized her effort just a bit. Overall, I think she’s a better horse than Charlie’s Beauty. She was 3-1 that day and Charlie’s Beauty was 7-2. I think the disparity between the prices in the two runners will be less today, especially with the run that Paco Lopez is on, which should equate to better value on Unsolved Mystery, who is riding a five race winning streak. She loves the course and is strictly the one to beat in the nightcap. 

Meet Statistics: Top Pick Winners 27/105 (25.7%), $159.70 ($1.52 ROI)

Turf Data for Each Rail Setting

I kept data from every turf race at the 2024 and the 2025 meeting to see if there were any trends on the turf at any of the various rail positions. I tried to quantify the data below and in 2024, it appears that the farther the rails go out, the more fair the track plays. Lead indicates that a horse won the race in wire to wire fashion. Stalk indicates that they were within five lengths of the leader at the first call in the race. For the purposes of this data set, a closer is a horse that rallied from five lengths or more behind the leader at any point of call in the race. The closer stats are listed next to the rail settings. I’ll continue to track this data for 2026 to see if this trend continues. 

0 Feet (2026)

24 Feet (2026)

36 Feet