Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Friday 12/26/25 – By Eric Solomon

The day after Christmas is traditionally the opening day of the Santa Anita card for their winter meet, however, excessive rainfall in the area caused that card to be postponed until Sunday. However, the weather forecast is perfect in Hot Springs, Arkansas, so we should be all systems go for this card highlighted by the Pippin Stakes for fillies and mares. The first of ten races is set to go off at 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts with a beaten $30K-$25K claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. Seven of the ten runners in this race qualified under the N3L condition and there are three, three year old fillies that have three or more wins. We’ll often see horses coming in from weaker circuits that are aggressively entered in some of the higher purse allowance races here at Oaklawn. That was the case with Sweet Music (#2), who was competing in allowance races in Minnesota and Ohio, and faring well when doing so. She had a three race win streak snapped in October when she took a stab at a turf sprint at Hawthorne. I think it’s clear that she is not going to be at her best on the lawn. Joel Berndt brought her here and had her compete in a N1X allowance race on Opening Weekend. She pressed a strong pace before backing out to finish 10th that afternoon at long odds. She wheels back quickly and gets proper class relief. She’s the lone four-time winner in this field, winning 40% of her races on the dirt. Most of the other horses have their wins against lower level beaten claimers, so I do think she has a considerable class edge over her rivals in this spot. I’d feel comfortable using her as a single in the first leg of the Early Pick-5. My Bossy Lady (#10) is who would be the back-up for me. She is entered with the waiver after she was claimed at a similar level over the summer at Ellis. She’s been sidelined since and is set to make her first start in 5 ½ months. She’s the morning line favorite, so while she fits at this level, I do wonder if we’re going to see her best effort coming off the bench. I do think some of the other horses that could fit in this race are better at two turns. The six furlong distance and the outside post both suit her well making her the logical alternative for me. 

Race 2:

Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in a $12,500 claiming race for horses that haven’t won twice in the last six months. Horses that won races while running with an $8K claiming tag or less do not count toward that non-winners condition, which explains why Sound of Victory (#1), Wartime Hero (#7), Runningforcash (#8), and Big Paper (#13) are eligible to run in this race. I’m going to take a stand against the favorite, Wartime Hero in this race. He’s a proven winner, scoring in 10 of his 36 career starts. However, he’s only 2-19 on this oval, making him 8-17 outside of Arkansas. It’s not that he runs poor races here, it’s just that the competition is stiffer and I think there are other horses that will be better prices that are just as capable. He has finished in the money about 58% of the time here, so it does make sense to consider him in bottom parts of the vertical exotics. I think Critical Threat (#2) is an interesting price play on top in this race. While I’d love his chances on an off track, he’s perfectly capable of pulling off the upset on a fast surface. He scored with open $16K claimers at Keeneland on a sloppy course two starts ago. He shipped to the Fair Grounds and was never involved when facing a tougher group of beaten $30K claimers. He had two races at Ellis this summer that would play very well with this field. With the class relief, I’m willing to forgive the one turn mile at Churchill three back and his last start, especially if he goes off close to his 10-1 morning line figure. After a slow opening weekend, business improved dramatically for Steve Asmussen last weekend, finishing the Winner’s Circle five times. It doesn’t hurt that his son, Erik Asmussen, is riding with extreme confidence right now, coming off a highly productive meet at Remington. They’ll pair up with Sound of Victory, breaking from the rail in this spot. He was a winner when they claimed him for $7,500 three starts ago. They moved him up in class to the N1X condition there where he finished third and then closed out the meet with a win at that level two weeks ago. Asmussen lost this horse and then re-claimed him, already turning a profit on this four year gelded son of Audible. This is a logical spot for him with the circuit switch. A longshot that might be worth thinking about is Bolt at Midnight (#6), who starts off at 20-1. His recent form has been dubious, but this is strictly a horse for course play. He was very good here last season, winning two times in three tries. He went off form in Kentucky, but now returns to where he’s done some of his best work while also getting significant class relief. He figures to be the pacesetter and there could be competition for that spot in this large field. However, I trust the human connections and would have no problem rolling the dice with him at this level at longer odds. Apollo Rising (#12)is another one to consider, especially since I think you can get away with going skinny in the first race today. The post stinks for him in this spot, so I’ll need to do better than 4-1. It’s also a bit concerning that Abel Rodriguez-Ramirez has started off 0-4 here when he’s had some horses that have felt very live on paper. This one has been away since the beginning of August when he was an easy winner with beaten $20K claimers at Remington. That was his best race since he was claimed by Robertino Diodoro. This barn does well with new acquisitions and this gelding was much more consistent prior his previous trainer switch. I’d need closer to 8-1 with his post and the quality of this field to really get behind him to win, however, the talent is there to use him as a backup on some deeper, multi-race tickets. 

Race 3:

The Mid-Card Pick-5 starts with an open $12,500 claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. I think there are a few horses that might be struggling to finish in this race, so Iuka Miss (#4), cutting back from two turn  races at Remington makes sense to me. She was a gate to wire winner two back there when beaten a $10K N3L claiming field. She tried allowance company in her last and faded to the back of the field. Her form has been up and down, but she did run well in her last start at this distance while stalking the pace. That kind of trip has been playing well on this course. Ingrid Mason has been doing well with new acquisitions and Ramon Vazquez has been riding well early on at this meet. First Hill (#5) gets class relief after struggling at long odds on Opening Weekend. Apprentice Ronnie Huckaby is looking for his first local win and this might be one of his better chances. This mare has generally been ambitiously placed, but she ran a strong race when dropping to a beaten $15K-$10K claiming level at Horseshoe Indianapolis two starts ago. There are a lot of dull efforts in her running lines when she’s been overmatched. She’s much more playable at this level though. Miss Jeopardy (#1) is a deeper tickets play for me in this race. She’s been sidelined since the beginning of August, but she was running solid races prior to that. She has a good track record at this distance and if she can come back at the level she was at in the summer, she’ll likely be competitive here. 

Race 4:

Ten horses will go one mile in this maiden special weight contest. Nine runners are three year olds while longshot Fight Time (#6) is the lone four year old in the bunch. The big name in the field is Publisher (#5), who despite never winning a race, has amassed close to a half million dollars in career earnings. Finishing second in last year’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby certainly didn’t hurt his cause. After a big effort to be second in a maiden race here in December, he ran in six graded stakes races. He ran strong races here, despite having notable trouble in both the Southwest and the Rebel Stakes. He outfinished Coal Battle in the Arkansas Derby to finish second to Sandman. He towers over this field in class, but he’s going to be even money or less in this race and despite the fact that he has been facing some of the best horses of his generation and despite several troubled trips, he has never really been in position in the final furlong to win a race outright. I don’t want to spread too deep in this race, but I do think there is value in trying to beat him. Nu What’s New (#2) is the logical alternative. He just missed in a seven furlong race at Keeneland two starts back. He had a rough trip while drawing the rail in a six furlong maiden race with a full field there at the end of their Fall Meeting. He’s been working well since shipping here. Two turns on the dirt is going to be a new experience for him, but there’s not much speed signed on for this race. He should be able to secure a decent position, closer to the front than where he’s been in his one turn efforts. While the dam has yet to produce a horse to win a race, I think this one has some talent. There are eight other horses that would really need to run the race of their lives to win this race. Barring a huge wake-up call, we know what the majority of those horses are. The four year old, Fight Time is the one longshot that could be an X-factor here. He was claimed for $75K on debut when he closed well to get into 4th place in a six furlong sprint on the dirt. He came back about ten days later at Turfway and ran okay as the favorite in a wide open race there at the same distance. He’s a full brother to Balboa, who was recently third in the Remsen, a few lengths behind Paladin, who is considered to be one of the favorites for the 2026 Kentucky Derby at this early stage. With closing efforts in two sprints, this one does make sense while stretching out to two turns for the first time. He didn’t break great last out, some that is something to keep an eye out for here. However, so-leading rider, Francisco Arrieta takes the mount on this colt that should be closer to the pace in this race. He feels like a horse that could move forward today. Whether or not it will be enough to beat a horse like Publisher, that remains to be seen. However, of the other runners here, he might have the most upside. 

Race 5: 

With the entire card tomorrow devoted to two year olds, it’s not surprising that there’s only one baby race carded today. State bred two year olds will sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race. It’s tricky feeling comfortable betting newcomers in races like this since there is such a difference in purse money between the maiden special weight and the maiden claiming level. That makes a horse like Igniting Embers (#4) interesting here. He ran against a runaway winner at short odds here two weeks ago when facing maiden claimers. He broke well and settled nicely off the early leaders. Things got tight for him along the rail though and he was forced to back out. He did make another run, but tired late while facing a dominating winner. He has decent early speed and should be in a positive position in the early stages of this race while getting some class relief. His Canterbury form from the summer suggests that he has a forward move to make here in his second start off the layoff. Both Midnight Whirl (#8) and Huckaby (#10) debuted in $50K maiden claiming races at Churchill, and neither was very impressive when doing so. However, the odds disparity on the morning line between the two is quite curious. Midnight Whirl starts at 2-1 while Huckaby starts at 15-1. The dam for Midnight Whirl has had other foals that had more productive sires that have struggled to win early on. Huckaby has one half sister that was a winner in her second time out and has gone on to win four of 14 career starts. He’s sired by Gormley, who gets 14% winners from his dirt sprinters. I’d rather take Huckaby at the longer price. Of the first time starters, Bali Deen (#7) is the one that interests me the most. There’s no data on the sire, Balandeen, who had a few small stakes wins in his career. The dam has one other horse to race and that one finished second in close finishes in her first two career tries. Jamie Gonzalez occasionally can pop with a firster here and this one makes sense to try at this lower level after some respectable AM drills. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $12,500 starter allowance race for three year olds and up that have at least one start since 2023 while racing with  $12,500 claiming tag or less. 2025 has been good to Raymond (#9), especially when racing here. He ripped off four straight wins on this oval at this distance from January to April. He tried stakes company at the end of the meet and was no match for Skelly that afternoon, who was an absolute beast on this course. He wasn’t as sharp at Prairie Meadows this summer and he was a little flat at Churchill in his last start. He makes his second start of a brief layoff and comes to this race where he fits well from a pace perspective. I think this is a good spot for him to turn things around. The one that could get first run on the top pick is Caramel Chip (#2), who conversely has not had the best two year run. Prior to 2024, he was a winner in 10 of his first 34 races. He’s only 2-19 since then, but he has been facing tougher competition of late. This is class relief for him after finishing in the back half of the field in a loaded allowance on closing day at Churchill last month. This is his best distance and his first try on this oval. 

Race 7: 

$40K claimers will go one mile here. This is a very contentious race with a lot of different possibilities for the win spot. The morning line favorite in this spot is Sara’s Shaman (#6). He was really good on the dirt earlier this year at Lone Star and Sam Houston, winning some tough races while sitting in a nice stalking position. There’s not a lot of early speed in the inside stalls, and the two horses directly to his outside are likely going to be hunting for the lead. I think he should be able to sit a nice trip in behind the leaders today. He’s starting off at 3-1, and I’m not sure anyone in this field should be close to that number. Early on at this meet, we’ve seen some shorter prices on the morning line have their odds float up, only to score. This is especially true when the horse is campaigned by lower profile connections like he is. There is a bit of a question of class, but he is probably the most consistent runner in this field. Hern (#4) comes back to Arkansas after being claimed for $25K in his last start in a beaten claiming race in the slop at Horseshoe Indy. Cipriano Contreras continues to excel with runners first off the claim, and this horse has run well here when he’s run at the appropriate class level. While he is moving back up the class ladder, I think he’s another one that fits well with this group. The two turns here are a bit of a question mark for Winit (#10), coming back after being a voided claim in a $50K claiming race in his last start in New York. The gaps in his recent running lines are not ideal, he is a graded stakes placed horse that is probably the best horse in this field when he’s right. I think his odds might dip below his 12-1 morning line figure, and the lower that number drops, the less desirable he’ll become. However, around 10-1 or better, I think I’d be willing to take that chance with him in this wide open affair. 

Race 8:, The $150K Pippin Stakes:

A field of six fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in the featured race of the afternoon. This feels like a race where there’s not a dedicated front-runner, but there’s as many as five runners that could try to step up to make the lead. I wanted to take a longshot here with In Just My Heels (#1), but while I like her fit a lot here, she runs much better when she’s on Lasix. Her races without it just aren’t that good, and since this is a stakes race, she’s not permitted to have it. Corningstone (#3) won this race last year, and she’s coming off a big effort in the Falls City at long odds. However, I just don’t trust her to come back as strong off a career top effort. To me, this race comes down to Peignoir (#4) and Standoutsensation (#6). While the price on Peignoir is likely going to be better, I can’t argue with the recent consistency from Standoutsensation. She was always a nice horse, but she started to get good when racing here last spring. She was knocking on the door before a dominating nine length win in N2L allowance company at the end of the meet. Since then she was narrowly defeated at Churchill and then clicked off three straight wins, including a score in the Turnback the Alarm Stakes at Belmont at the Big A. She can win on the front end, but more importantly, she can win when stalking the pace. That feels like the more logical scenario on this day. Peignoir is capable of running big races and her absolute best might be better than the top pick. However, she hasn’t been very consistent in her five starts in 2025, with her only win coming in an off the turf N3X allowance race at Keeneland. Like In Just My Heels, she might be better when racing with Lasix, but unlike that one she has proven that she can contend in stakes company without it. 

Race 9:

There’s some familiar names in this N3L allowance race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. The most familiar runner is Speed King (#3), who was the upset winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes here back in January. His four tries since that score have not been good, and while he was cooked in a speed duel in his next two starts after that win, his last two tries in one turn races at Churchill were not competitive. I like Hailstorm (#8) in this spot. He has two sharp races since David Jacobson purchased him in May. He just missed at long odds at Ellis back in August and I thought his effort at Keeneland two back was better than it looked on paper. He came with a menacing four wide bid before flattening out. Horses weren’t really winning with that over the top move on the dirt at Keeneland at that point in the meet. While he is 0-5 on this oval, I think he’s coming here as a better horse. Secured Lender (#5) is still eligible for a N1X allowance, but I do think he fits with this group. He struggled as the favorite in a starter allowance race at Churchill in his last start, but he was very sharp in lesser races in New York two and three starts ago. I think he’s a candidate to rebound at a fair price here. Another horse that is eligible for a rebound is the winner of the Bachelor Stakes back in May, Max Got Excited (#10). He was never involved in the Maxfield Stakes in his last start at Churchill and has been on the sidelines since. He wasn’t terribly consistent last year, but he’s another one that is very dangerous when the best version of himself shows up. I don’t love the 4-1 pricing, but he is a stakes winner on this course and he does fit well here. 

Race 10:

We’ll end the day with a $10K starter allowance race going one mile where the only qualifier is that a horse must have a start with a $10K claiming tag or less since 2023. The complexion of this race would logically change is Curlin’s Malibu (#14) drew into the body of this field, but since he cross-entered in a race on Sunday, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s going to start in that race where he won’t be stuck in a far outside post. A longshot worth thinking about is the Parx invader, Speightster Red (#2). He was off form when Dan Ward claimed him off Michael Pino at Parx in October. He was very sharp in the first half of 2025 though, and if he can get back to those races after a two month freshening and a change of scenery, he could be tough at long odds here. The 47:3 drill at the beginning of the week is a step in the right direction. If he’s on the board at 20-1 or better, I think he’s worth rolling the dice with. I wasn’t expecting much from Ben Franklin (#7) when he showed up in a beaten $10K claiming race two weeks ago after being claimed and making his first start in 10 months. He was also going six furlongs, which is not what this horse wants to do. He was second that day in an above average field for that condition here, losing to old pro, Jackman, who is a track and distance specialist. That effort was encouraging enough for me to back him here when stretching back out to two turns. He ran some very good races in 2024, and while I’m not sure if he’s going to get back to that form, I still think there is room for growth in this spot. Words of Wisdom (#3) is ultra-consistent, winning 11 of 38 career starts. Tony Reingsdorf claimed him four starts ago and he earned two second place finishes and two wins since then. He pretty much always shows up and he should sit a favorable trip once again while breaking from an inside post. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 10/60 (16.7%, $88.00 $1.47 ROI)