Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 1/3/26 – By Eric Solomon

There’s 11 races on the Saturday card, highlighted by the first Derby Points race of the meet, the Smarty Jones Stakes. Nine three year olds look to bolster their case to advance along the trail that leads to Louisville on the first Saturday in May. The Renaissance Stakes and the Commodore Overnight Stakes also support this program. With the added race the first post this afternoon will be 12:00 PM (CST). There will also be four separate Pick-5 wagers starting in Races 1,3,5, and 7 today.

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Three year old fillies will start the afternoon going six furlongs in a $40K-$35K maiden claiming race. Turfway shipper N Z Holly (#2) looks tough in this race. She was in range before fading badly in her debut against maiden allowance foes in her debut at Turfway. Rodolphe Brisset adds blinkers and Lasix for her second start, while also shipping her to Oaklawn to try the dirt. The dam did most of her work on synthetic courses, but she ran two nice races on the dirt at Gulfstream. Brisset is strong with second time starters and when adding blinkers for the first time. The morning line favorite is Crevalla de Vil (#9), who was bet down to the lukewarm favorite in a $30K maiden claiming race here two weeks ago. After some issues in her two prior starts, things were generally smooth last time out and she closed well to get into second. After closers have been struggling to get home at this meet, three of the last four races yesterday were won by horses that closed from farther back in the field. She’s starting at 9-5 and the way the Casse barn has been going here, she might be closer to even money when the gate pops open. While I don’t really want her at that number, I do respect her ability. On Ramp (#6) debuted in a $50K maiden claimer here and finished an even 4th that day. Her effort wasn’t spectacular, but it did offer something to build off of. Jaime Torres has been off to a slow start at this meet, but he did score with a 24-1 longshot yesterday. Coty Rosin has gotten off to a slow start at this meet, but I do think he has the filly well-spotted here. 

Race 2:

Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this $25K N2L claiming race. This is a fairly wide open contest. I landed on Bote (#9), making his first start for Lindsay Schultz. This one is coming off two solid efforts in a pair of two turn sprint races at Delta Downs. While his races on traditional one mile ovals haven’t been as strong, he was running better races here than he was in Kentucky. I think he’s had the time to mature and grow up, and he’s moving into a barn that has been making a lot of right decisions during the holiday portion of this 25-26 meeting. Max Dot Socks (#5) is an interesting price play in this race. He was a winner on debut here in December of 2024. After showing speed in that race, he struggled to get involved in the early stages of his next three races. He did run on late in the Rainbow Stakes to be a non-threatening 5th. He’s been given some time off and I do think he needs to be put into play earlier. Walter De la Cruz gets the return call on this horse who does fit on his best day at this level. Hicko (#8) ran three solid races on this oval last year when facing fellow Arky breds. He struggled in his last three starts in Indiana and Oklahoma when facing open competition. Moquett gave him a few months off and brings him back home to start his four year old season. His rider, Evin Roman, has struggled early on at this meet, so it’s hard to take too short of a price on anything that he’s riding at this time. However, there is talent here and that may be enough at this level. 

Race 3:

These three year old allowance races at two turns can offer horses a chance to take the conservative path after a maiden score or they can give a horse a chance to regroup after faltering in stakes company. Treadstone (#6) is a very interesting horse in this race. He debuted in a maiden optional claiming race, running with the waiver, at Aqueduct at the end of November. He was a bit slow from the gate, but he ranged up on the outside and came with a steady wide bid to overtake the leaders and win the one mile race as the lone first time starter in the field. A few weeks after that race, he was entered in the Fasig-Tipton December Digital Sale where he sold for a whopping $470K, the highest number at that sale. The dam produced two winners of the UAE Oaks, Polar River, who almost came back to beat Lani in the 2016 UAE Derby, and Down on Da Bayou. Perhaps a trip to the Middle East is on the agenda when spending that kind of money. Greg Compton takes over on behalf of Mag Racing Stables. He’s worked twice over the local course for his new connections and is ready to go the same distance today against winners, but trying two turns for the first time. Compton’s runners have been disappointing to say the least thus far at this meet, with only one runner hitting the board with his first 18 starters. Expectations are high and the debut was better than it looks on paper. I’ll take a shot with him in this race because I have some questions about the favorite, Misinformation (#5), in spite of the red hot connections. Instead, I’ll use Opus Uno (#7) on the stretch out for Peter Miller. He defected from a starter allowance race last weekend in favor of this spot, so I do like the confidence. I don’t think this race has come up as strong as some of the other allowance races at this condition in previous seasons. His last four efforts in Southern California were solid, including a second place finish in a turf sprint at this level. I do like Vino Rosso horses on the stretch out and he does have a nice foundation. Peter Miller is off to a solid start at this meet, winning twice on New Year’s Day. Ramon Vazquez rides his better runners and he opts to be rode this one in favor of Miller’s other runner, L Rankin (#1). On deeper tickets, Chad Allan (#10) is a live longshot while stretching out to two turns for the first time. His effort in the Advent Stakes here when going 5 ½ furlongs here last month wasn’t terrible. He was a huge longshot, and while traffic might have cost him a place or two, I don’t think that effort was that bad. He’s sired by Union Rags out of a Candy Ride mare, so I’m thinking that the added distance will be welcomed. He’ll need to work out a trip from the outside post, but I do see him as a horse that has a forward move in him at this level. 

Race 4, The $150K Renaissance Stakes:

Three year olds will dash six furlongs in this early stakes race this afternoon. While Dirty Rich (#1) was much the best in the Advent Stakes here on Opening Day, I think Obliteration (#6) is strictly the one to beat today. He was really good in his first few starts on the dirt, dominating the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga in July. Ewing was just a little bit better when he was able to win the start and control the temp in a small field that day. Asmussen tried him on the turf with an end goal being the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. While he ran credible races on the turf, dirt racing I think he is going to be what he does the best. He’s getting class relief and I think he can run down Dirty Rich in the final furlong. Dirty Rich really is the only other legitimate threat in this race, so that’s where I’ll back up. He’s another one that showed promise on the dirt, but tried grass since there are more opportunities for two year olds sprinting on the lawn then there are on the dirt in the fall. He was a clear winner in the Advent Stakes, but the added half furlong probably would have done him in when facing Boca Beach Club in that race. That one opted to try longer in the Smarty Jones later on today.

Race 5: 

Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight race that starts another Pick-5 wager. Three of the 14 entered in this race faced D’Code in a maiden race here last month. That one put up a huge speed figure while dominating that group, stopping the clock in a speedy 1:09:2. Silver Prince (#6) got the closest to him, finishing a distant second, but putting up a  big speed figure while doing so. He enters this race as the morning line favorite, but I don’t love taking short prices on runners like this. In addition, Moquett has lost his last 43 starts with maidens in their second career starts. I’ll roll the dice with a firster in this race and make Torched (#4) the top pick for Ray Ashford. Ashford is the trainer that sent out D’Code, who was loaded for his debut. This colt actually worked a tick faster than his stablemate when they worked in company on 12/7. Ashford had five debut winners with 28 firsters in 2025 and McKinzie gets 14% winners with his debuting runners. I think he’ll be a fair price against a vulnerable favorite in this race. Just Jo Jo (#3) was 4th in a maiden special weight that was a little faster than usual by Delaware Park standards. He was put into play early while caught in between runners. He responded and hit the front and while he battled in the stretch, he got tired late and faded to be 4th. The winner came back to finish second in a stakes race at Laurel and came home first last weekend in another stakes race there. The runner up came back to run second in maiden allowance race at Churchill, so there was definite quality in that maiden race. Maclean Robertson gave him a little time to get acclimated to his surroundings Reclamation (#8) is the one that I’d be more likely to bet back from the D;Code maiden race. He dueled with that horse in the early stages and came up empty late. His half brother was stakes placed on this course at this six furlong distance so there’s reason to believe that this son of Carocaro will be better in this spot today. 

Race 6:

Four year olds that qualify for a $50K starter allowance race and a N1X allowance race will go one mile in the first leg of the $1 Classix Pick-6 wager. This is yet another race which drew an overflow field of 14 runners, but as per usual, only there will be a maximum of 12 that compete. This is a wide open race, so let’s roll the dice with a bomb and make Dynamis (#2) the top pick in this race. He made his first start off the layoff in a very tough open $12,500 starter allowance race here on Opening Day. This is one of those times where it looks like this might be a tougher race on paper, but that field was much deeper than the field he’s facing today. In addition, he was dealing with post 12 while facing that better group. He never really had a chance that day. He had two solid wins on this course last season and now he’s making his second start off the layoff. Apprentice Ronnie Huckaby earned his first win on this course this week, so his confidence is trending up. Strike the Fire (#3) is another longer priced option that is worth a look in this race. He made his first start since April in a N3L starter allowance race here, also on Opening Day. He was in the mix early before falling back to 7th. He ran really well in his first start off the Cipriano Contreras claim in April, so I think he’s a runner that could move forward in his second start off the layoff. Expect the Best (#7) might not have the highest ceiling in this field, but I’d argue that he does have the highest floor. He’s very consistent on the track. He’s caught off tracks in his last three starts in Florida and Kentucky. Ron Moquett claimed him at Churchill last out with the intention of racing him here at Oaklawn. Luis Saez rode him to victory last out and he’ll get the return call despite the change in connections. 

Race 7: 

The final Pick-5 wager of the afternoon begins with this optional $20K claiming/N1X allowance race for Arkansas breds, four and up, going six furlongs. On paper, this is a very strong race for this condition, one of the stronger ones that I’ve seen since I’ve been covering Oaklawn on a day to day basis. There are three shorter priced runners that have been very sharp in open races. Nicholai (#5), Rock Solo (#11), and Zippy Mark (#12) are standouts among the other 11 runners that entered into this race. Nicholai is coming off a narrow miss at long odds in open N1X company here and both Rock Solo and Zippy mark have wins in open starter allowance company. This feels like a prep race for Rock Solo as he’s done his best work at two turns. I’ll wait to take him at a short price at this level in a route when this meet resumes. While Nicholai was huge last out, I’m going to need to see him replicate that effort to take him over Zippy Mark. Zippy Mark was sharp here last season, but he was very good this summer, winning in starter allowance company at Saratoga. He struggled against a tough group of open N1X runners at Belmont at the Big A in his last start, but I think this class drop and the cutback to six furlongs will both work in his favor today. I think he catches Nicholai late. Nicholai ran very well at 23-1 when losing by a nose in open allowance company last month. He wheels back three weeks later while dropping in class while still running for a hefty $115K purse. He was too good to leave off today. While I have him on the B line, I’m thinking closer to a 60/40 split with how I play Zippy Mark and him in the mutli-race wagers. 

Race 8: 

Older runners will start the Late Pick-4 with a N1X allowance race at 1 1/16 miles. There’s not really much speed signed on for this race and while Midnight West (#9) has a decent amount of early foot, I don’t know if he can beat Riddle Solver (#2) to the early lead here. While early speed hasn’t always been a key part of the game for Riddle Solver, he made an easy lead when taking starter allowance foes from gate to wire while drawing the rail. He’s in the two hole today, and he’s one of only two horses that Ricardo Santana Jr. has won with at this meet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the lead early, despite moving up in class today. I think he could be a candidate to steal this race. Super Cruise (#6) might be the most talented horse in the race, but his antics at the gate have cost him twice already. When he broke well, he settled into a nice gallop despite being toward the back of the half of the field. He came with a bold, four wide bid, and was able to hold off the others. He ran well in his first try since that and First Division, who beat him by a length last out, flattered him by nearly winning the Coach Overnight Stakes yesterday. Dance Some Mo (#8) doesn’t win a ton of races, but he always seems to show up. He’s put together a very nice string of four races, all of which would make him competitive with this group. He’s another runner that has a higher floor than the majority of runners in this race. 

Race 9, The $135K Commodore Overnight Stakes

An eclectic group of 11 sprinters will go six furlongs in this overnight stakes race restricted to horses that have yet to win an open stakes race. Echo Again (#3) should be very tough to deal with in this race. As a newly turned six year old, Norm Casse has this one in the best form of his career. He’s earned three Beyers of 98 or 99 in his last four starts. He did throw a clunker two back at Keeneland, but other than that, he’s been on a roll. I think Concrete Glory (#5) is going to have to work hard on the front end, getting potential early pressure from Second ID (#2), Rexford (#4), Mischievous M (#8) and Lucius Verus (#10). Echo Again should sit in the second flight, patiently stalking and waiting to make his move as the cheap speed fades. I think he can run down the favorite and score here. It;s hard to ignore a horse that’s 17-39 in his career, but that’s what we have with the favorite. I’ll use him as a backup since he clearly knows how to win races. He’s yet to seal the deal in open stakes company, but he’s been knocking on the door. Don’t sleep on the Arkansas bred, Navy Seal (#11) who continues to run big races for Nancy Knott. He’ll need a true pace meltdown, and as an eight year old, I don’t know if he has much room for growth. However, he keeps firing and he’s looking to keep his streak of 12 straight in the money finishes in one turn races. 

Race 10, The $250K Smarty Jones Stakes:

I have horse by horse analysis of this wide open race linked here. The abbreviated version for this race is below. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2026-kentucky-derby-the-250k-smarty-jones-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

I do think Mark Casse has a live longshot with Silent Tactic (#4). He has a pair of sharp efforts in Canada on this Tapeta, and if his game translates to dirt, I think he has a big shot. Brad Cox sends out the undefeated colt, Rancho Santa Fe (#5) for his stakes debut. He ran a big race at Keeneland in allowance company at this distance last out. Oscar’s Hope (#6) ships here after easily winning the Jean Laffite Futurity at Delta. Tom Amoss has had this one ready to fire in five career starts. I’ll look to use both Boca Beach Club (#3) and Strategic Risk (#7) as deeper savers. While I have questions about both, neither one would surprise me if they scored here. 

Race 11:

We’ll close out the afternoon with a N1X allowance race for four year olds and up going six furlongs. This is another loaded race that drew enough interest to fill a race at this same condition tomorrow. As a result, even if given the chance to run, I’d assume both Al’s Romeo (#13) and B Sudd (#14) will wait until tomorrow to compete in a race where they’re already in the body of the field. Phil D’Amato claimed Stiglets (#11) for $100K here back in January and he played a big role in developing this Spun to Run colt into a very nice horse. He broke his maiden on this oval in maiden allowance company and he’s been knocking on the door at this level in his last three starts. While he’s been on the lead in his last two races, he doesn’t need to be there to score. With his outside draw, I’d like to see him stalk the pace more as opposed to committing for the front like he did when he posted in the inside half of the field. I’m thinking this is where he’ll clear this condition. Vital Mind (#6) is the main danger, making his second start off the layoff for Asmussen. He broke his maiden in his second try at Churchill at the end of November, when making his first start since his debut here in March. His dam was a multiple Grade 1 winner that Asmussen also campaigned. It’s taken him a little while to get going, but the ceiling is still high for him. On deeper tickets, don’t count out Map to the Stars (#9), making his first start off the claim for Armando Hernandez. He claimed 12 horses in 2025 and 7 of them won first off the claim. He was sharp in the spring before going off form a bit at the end of summer and the beginning of fall. He dropped in for a tag and seemed to get right in that spot. He’s facing a tough group, but he’s a candidate to move forward today.

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 20/110 (18.1%, $145.00 $1.32 ROI)