We’ll make the first of four stops on the Derby Trail at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas with the Smarty Jones this afternoon. This race is named for the 2004 Kentucky Derby Champion that wintered in Arkansas before headed north to Kentucky to take down the biggest prize in American racing. An evenly matched field of nine are entered in this race, headed by Universe, who earned points in his last three starts.
Oaklawn Park Race 10: The $250K Smarty Jones Stakes (Post Time: 4:25 PM CST)
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Universe (3-1 ML): Kenny McPeek has two runners scheduled to compete in this race and this is the one that is the most accomplished. He’s scheduled to make his fifth career start today while dropping out of graded stakes competition for the first time since his debut win at Saratoga this summer. He finished third behind Napoleon Solo and Talkin in the Champagne Stakes in October. He took his talents to Louisville for his next two starts, finishing as the runner-up in the Street Sense and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His effort last out behind Further Ado was interesting as Brian Hernandez Jr., who was riding him for the first time, had him well off the pace that day. The front-runners were setting a solid pace and he was rolling late to get up for second, finishing a little less than two lengths behind the winner. That race did not come back very fast and both Very Connected and Spice Runner, who finished behind him that day, came back with dull efforts in their next starts in New Orleans and Oklahoma. His speed figures for each start have all been hovering around the same range. That tells me that he’s a consistent horse, but he hasn’t shown a ton of growth just yet. At shorter odds in this race, I’m looking elsewhere for the top spot. He feels like one that would be important to have underneath in the vertical exotics though.
2 – Baytown Dreamer (30-1 ML): Paul McEntree trains a lot of horses for Baytown Partnerships and their business model seems to be to find cheap horses and run them often, many times in big spots as two year olds. This son of Mendelssohn debuted in the spring at Keeneland and he made eight starts in 2025 as a two year old. He found the Winner’s Circle once, and earned just over $200K, which is 40 times his $5K purchase price in 2024. He’s had the most success on the turf, so this feels like a big swing, trying this level on the dirt. He’s another runner whose speed figures have been relatively steady, but about 10-15 points lower than Universe. He’s been based at Turfway, so I wonder if the synthetic path there would be more beneficial as he has seemed to handle that course well enough in the morning. I’m looking elsewhere today.
3 – Boca Beach Club (4-1 ML): James Divito sends out this son of Omaha Beach who was very sharp in his five furlong debut at Hawthorne in November. He recovered well after a slow start to range up and power past his rivals in the long stretch there. That effort was good enough for him to be considered for the Advent Stakes at 5 ½ furlongs on Opening Day here. He was bet down to the 13-10 favorite in that race and he ran a credible race to finish second behind Dirty Rich. He’s stretching out two 1 1/16 miles while going two turns for the first time. He had a blistering work of 46:1 for four furlongs at the beginning of the week and his five furlong drill last week was solid as well. He’s training like a horse that has been flourishing since coming to Arkansas. Horses sired by Omaha Beach have fared well in their first route races, winning 18% of the time. The dam only won her debut at five furlongs, but she has produced a runner that was stakes placed on both dirt and turf at two turns. Another one of her runners broke her maiden on this course at this distance in 2020. Divito won 20% of his races in 2025 and he’s won at an 18% clip over the last five years. He does a nice job with his younger horses, especially early on in their careers. His numbers drop when stretching out for the first time, winning with only 4 of 37 starters (11%) in that five year time span. You have to go all the way back to 2021 to find the last time he trained a stakes winner though. He’s lost 23 straight starts in stakes company and this colt was the first runner that hit the board in a stakes race for him since October of 2021. There are some things to like and some things that are not working in his favor. At the end of the day, even with Luis Saez riding, 4-1 is going to be too short of a price for me to be comfortable with. I’d probably need closer to 8-1 to get involved to play him to win, but his recent drills have been good enough to at least make sure I’m backing up with him.
4 – Silent Tactic (12-1 ML): I’m intrigued by this longshot, who is one of two horses that Mark Casse has racing here. This son of Tacitus was a debut winner at two turns on the Tapeta at Woodbine in October, pulling clear late. He sat a nice rail trip that afternoon and was able to tip out and run down the pacesetter. That effort was good enough to land him a spot in the starting gate for the Grade 3 Grey Stakes in November. I think he ran a better race than the heavy favorite, who beat him by a little less than a length. He was covered up down the backstretch and was forced to swing out into the five path on the turf, while The Big Con, got the golden trip along the rail. He still rallied strongly though and looked like a horse that has a decent future. The stud fee for Tacitus, a beautifully bred horse that was often close, but failed to win a lot of races, was set a $5K. John Oxley paid a whopping $500K for this one in April of 2025. He’s a big and strong colt that might still be growing into his large frame. He’s the first foal to race from a Gun Runner mare, so I do think his game will transfer to the dirt. Horses trained by Casse continue to thrive at this meet. He had two more winners yesterday, upping his total to 10 winners so far. Most of his local runners are ridden by Cristian Torres, who is not riding in this race despite riding here today. Jaime Torres gets the assignment for the first time, which is a little curious. However, I think he’s the most interesting price play in this wide open field.
5 – Rancho Santa Fe (5-2 ML): The undefeated morning line favorite for Brad Cox makes his stakes debut today after winning twice in Kentucky. He was a winner on debut when going one mile at Ellis in August. Cox brought him back to compete in a N1X allowance race at this distance at Keeneland in his most recent start. He ran well once again that day, coming with a five wide surge to get up late. There weren’t many horses at the Keeneland meet this fall that won with that kind of trip, and he beat a pair of next out allowance winners in that race. He’s a half to Heroic Move, who is a multiple stakes winning horse at two turns on the dirt. The Wests owned the dam, who was a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt. Florent Geroux is coming to town for the first time this season to ride. He’s a contender in this spot.
6 – Oscar’s Hope (8-1 ML): Tom Amoss sends out this son of Twirling Candy, who is looking to build off his win in the Jean Laffite Futurity at Delta Downs. He has starts at Saratoga, Churchill, and Keeneland and has never finished worse than second in five career starts. He’s stretching out in distance, but I liked the way he handled the two turn trip on the bullring at Delta last out. He’s the first foal to race from a well-intentioned mare that was a debut winner, whose career was cut short due to injury. This is a runner that has done very little wrong, but like some of the others, his figures have been a little stagnant, as he hasn’t shown a ton of growth yet. He’s going to run his race, and if others aren’t stepping up, he’s a viable option.
7 – Strategic Risk (6-1 ML): Mark Casse’s second made a splash when dominating the competition in the Florida Stallion Series In Reality Division at the end of November at Gulfstream. Javier Castellano was the 5th different rider to ride this Noble Bird colt in as many starts, but he’s making the trip to Hot Springs to follow this colt today. He struggled in his two starts in open company at Saratoga, although it’s worth pointing out that one of those races came on the turf and both races were graded stakes. He clearly wanted to go two turns on the dirt, which he got to do for the first time last out. Perhaps that is why they opted to bypass the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream today (at a one turn mile) in favor of this spot. His full sister was a multiple stakes winner at six furlongs, so the dam has produced other decent runners. His record in open company does give me a little cause for pause, but this barn is firing on all cylinders at this meet, so seeing this one in the Winner’s Circle would hardly be a surprise.
8 – Scar Ship (12-1 ML): Ricky Courville trains this Louisiana bred son of Midshipman, who is wading into open competition for the first time today. He was a strong maiden special weight weight at Delta two back and he proved that effort was not a fluke when he finished a close second in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes at the Fair Grounds last month. That race was contested at six furlongs, so this will be a true distance test for him as well. THe dam was a winner at one mile on the dirt and she’s had a few runners have some moderate success against lesser competition at this distance. I’m not sure this colt is up for this big of a test today though.
9 – Sleepingonfreedom (5-1 ML): The second horse that Ken McPeek sends out is this son of Independence Hall, who came from off the pace to score in the slop at Churchill in a starter allowance at this distance in his last start. Brian Hernandez Jr., who teamed up with McPeek to guide Mystik Dan to the Winner’s Circle in the Kentucky Derby in 2024, will be in the saddle aboard this one. Typically, Hernandez rides first call for this barn, so the fact that he is riding this colt in favor of Universe is interesting. The runners from the first crop of horses from Independence Hall have won 3 of 29 races in dirt routes thus far. This is a relatively big class hike, and he’s going to have to overcome an outside draw. I think the morning line is too low at 5-1, and I’d expect him to go off at odds of 10-1 or higher in this spot. Even then, I’d still prefer others.
The verdict: 4-5-6
I think this race could be ripe for an upset, so I’ll try the Canadian shipper, Silent Tactic (#4) as the top pick. I thought both of his races on the Tapeta at Woodbine were strong, including a narrow miss in the Grade 3 Grey Stakes there in November. He’s bred to handle a traditional dirt course, so I’ll bet that he’ll make that transition successfully. While I’d prefer to see Cristian Torres in the saddle for the red hot Mark Casse, Jaime Torres, who is named to ride, did have a pair of winners here yesterday.
Brad Cox has won three of the last last five runnings of this race (Caddo River in 2021, Victory Formation in 2023, and Catching Freedom in 2024) and I think he’ll have a legitimate chance at his 4th trophy with Rancho Santa Fe (#5). He’s a homebred for Gary and Mary West who has two wins in as many starts. He handled two turn racing with ease at Keeneland, doing so while going wide on the turn, which was not the easiest way to win this fall there. He has enough tactical speed to set the pace or to stalk the pace if that’s what Geroux would prefer. I’d expect him to move forward once again.
Oscar’s Hope (#6) is another runner that is worth considering in this race. He’s been very consistent in his five career starts, never finishing worse than second. While his last win came at Delta Downs, he’s been just as good at Saratoga, Churchill, and Keeneland. Others might have a higher ceiling, but he finds a way to be right in the mix every time.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 152nd Kentucky Derby on May 2nd, 2026. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
