Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 1/4/26 – By Eric Solomon

In the last few years, freezing temperatures in January at Oaklawn have wreaked havoc on the racing and training calendar. This year, they have tried something new, splitting the meet into two parts. This is the last day of the holiday portion of the meet. After the 11 race card today, Oaklawn will be dark for the next 26 days, returning with a live card on January 30th. The featured race this afternoon is the Mockingbird Stakes for three year old fillies sprinting six furlongs. Just like yesterday, with the added race the first post this afternoon will be 12:00 PM (CST) and once again, there will also be four separate Pick-5 wagers starting in Races 1,3,5, and 7. As has been the case with the first 12 days of the meet, it looks like the forecast will be dry and the track will be fast once again.

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first race of the afternoon is a $50K maiden claimer for three year olds sprinting six furlongs. Brosnan (#7) enters this race as the heavy favorite, eight days removed from a career top effort at this level. He finished 4th that day, beaten by a little more than two lengths. Perhaps the upcoming hiatus was the impetus for running this horse back so quickly. He’s also facing a fairly soft field for this condition. The horse that feels like the logical alternative to taking a short price with him would be Like and Subscribe (#3). He broke slowly in a maiden special weight race here last month. As he began to advance while trying to work his way into a better position, he was forced to gently tap on the brakes as a longshot began to fade, thus forcing him to be farther away from the leaders. He came with a wide bid and passed a few tiring horses to get into 8th, but was never really a factor in that race. Adam Kitchingman has a string here from Southern California, and I’m noticing that the horses that he’s racing here for the second time seem to be better spotted. I think getting Abel Cedillo in the irons today is an upgrade as well. I’ll choose him to pull off the minor upset. Witch Waydidhego (#9) might be up against it from the win perspective, but I do think he’s a horse that could improve in his second local start. He was running against Iowa breds in state bred maiden allowance competition at Prairie Meadows over the summer. He was getting better while adding distance, with his best effort being three back when running at this six furlong trip for the first time. He came back quickly in a five furlong race at the end of the meet there where he faltered as the favorite. I don’t like playing short priced two year olds that are cutting back in distance after showing some speed at slightly longer sprints, so I can forgive that effort. He came back after three months away to face D’code in an open maiden allowance here. That one ran a monster race and is likely stakes bound after that huge effort. He didn’t finish in the same zip code that day, as he tried to go with that one early on. This is a significant drop in class for his second local try, and I do like him getting back to six furlongs at a level which should be more competitive for him. I think the top two are likely better, but he’d be the longshot I’d try to hook underneath. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this beaten $10K claiming test. As has been the case with all of the races at this condition thus far at this meet, this race is open to horses that have either never won three times or have not won a race in six months. I think there are some interesting prices in this race, starting with C.C. Harbor (#7). She’s making her first start since a failed effort on the turf at Louisiana Downs back in June. She has run well on this track in the past and she’s put forth solid efforts coming off the layoff before. My angle with her is that the races that she has been running in here have been significantly tougher than the field that she’s facing today. As a seven year old mare, this is probably who this mare is at this point, and she can compete at this level if she can replicate her 2025 form here. The outside post is not ideal, but What’s to Do (#12) is another one starting at 10-1 that has a decent shot with this group. She was last seen finishing second in a beaten $15K claimer in an off the turf race at Hawthorne. She’s another one that has some competitive efforts here despite facing tougher foes. She was a winner at this condition in Indiana over the summer and she gets Amir Mendoza, who is off to a strong start as an apprentice at this meet, to ride. I’ll back up with the favorite, Boltoro (#2) in this spot. I don’t love playing this kind of horse as she has been second almost four times as many times as she won races. She is in better form this season than she was coming into the 2024-25 meet here where she struggled. I don’t want her at 5-2, but if those odds float up, she’d be more enticing. 

Race 3:

Three year old fillies will go one mile in this maiden special weight. Most of the public money in this race is going to go on Eagle Dance (#4) for Brad Cox. We’ve seen this movie before where Cox debuts a well-meant horse in a sprint, but isn’t fully cranked for that race, and then stretches them out to two turns for their second career start. This has been an angle that has worked 27% of the time (48-181) over the last five years and more recently, he’s won with five of his last 10 second time starters following the same pattern. He’s 7-25 (28%) when taking the blinkers off after wearing them on debut. She ran well while chasing an aggressive early pace when debuting here on Opening Day. There are definitely things to like, but the likely even money price tag is not one of them. She’s going to be well-represented on the mutli-race wagers, but I’ll try Maximum Offer (#5) for Ken McPeek on top in this race. She paired her first two Beyers and now makes her third career start and her second start in a two turn race. She finished a respectable third in her debut at Keeneland before wheeling back a few weeks later to try two turns at Churchill. She was a little aggressive in the early stages and didn’t have a ton of fight left for the stretch run. McPeek adds blinkers and brings her to town from her Fair Grounds base. She has worked well since her last start. This feels like a natural spot for her to move forward. 

Race 4:

The Mid-Card Pick-4 begins with a $12,500 beaten claiming race for four year olds and up that have either never won three times or have not won a race in eight months. 14 entered, but as per usual, there will be a maximum of 12 starters to go 1 1/16 miles here. There are some suspect class droppers in this race which certainly clouds the picture here. I landed on Bettera (#1) on the rail, shipping in from Hawthorne for Armando Hernandez. While his success has been limited, this barn wins at a high clip in Illinois. This gelding cleared the N1X allowance condition on the turf three starts back, but he went off form for a bit at Keeneland against a good starter allowance race and then a tough allowance field back at Hawthorne. He’s been on a short break and now he drops into a more realistic spot. He was competitive in both races on this oval last season. Gee No Hollander (#6) is an Arkansas bred who has found a home in these beaten claiming races against open competition. He tired a bit in the late stages last time out when facing a similar group while making his first start in five months. He’s a four year old, so there is room for a little more growth here. On deeper tickets, I’ll throw in Gettysburg Address (#7), who is taking a deep drop, four starts removed from being claimed for $50K. He was up against it prior to going into the gate in a starter allowance race when going one mile here last month. However, his race was lost when he stumbled hard when coming out of the gate. I do like him better at two turns as he was struggling in several one turn races against better competition. This barn was red hot at this time here last year, but they’ve started off a chilly 1-16 this season. They are going to get their wins here though. 

Race 5: 

10 older runners will go 1 1/16 miles in this money allowance race for horses that have not won $40K twice in allowance or stakes company over the last six months. Woodcourt (#8) makes a lot of sense in this race. He ran well in the Tinsel Stakes where he went to the front and tried to take the race to Willy D’s, who was the other speed horse. He faded late in that nine furlong contest, but Rattle N Roll, who romped home, is a superior runner. He likes this course and cleared the N2X condition here back in February. He had poor efforts at Zia and Churchill, but he stepped up his game when getting back here. There’s other speed signed on for this race, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he won the race into the first turn. Catching Freedom (#5) won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in 2024 and he came within less than two lengths of the trio of Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, and Forever Young in the Derby that year. He hasn’t won a race since that score at the Fair Grounds, but he’s faced smaller fields of late where he’s tried to be more tactical. I think he’s at his best when he can settle off the pace and make one run at the leaders, and he might get that set up today for the first time in a while. I don’t love him as the favorite in this race, but I do think he fits from a class and pace perspective. 

Race 6:

Arkansas bred three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming event. 14 entered this race and of the 12 runners that are in the body of this field, only two of them have racing experience. However, neither Mspunkinsperegrine (#6) or Battisto (#9) have shown anything to make me think they could win this race. This is an absolute spread race for me. There are two shorter priced runners and two longer priced runners that I want to have on my tickets. While Actif Baby (#3) and Sisters in Town (#10) have been a little faster in the AM, I’ll make Bossoftheblock (#4) the top pick here. Randy Morse sends out this Street Strategy filly, whose works have been progressively getting better in the mornings. As a sire, Street Strategy gets 9% debut winners in dirt sprints. Morse also has hit with 9% (3-33) of his firsters debuting in maiden claiming races over the last five years. All three winners have come in state bred races on this course though. Sisters in Town makes sense for John Ortiz. Her sire, Mo Town, gets 12% debut winners in dirt sprints. Her full sister was the only foal from this dam to win a race. She was competitive in state bred maiden special weight company when debuting and then broke her maiden in a two turn race in her third career start. Actif Baby is only the second firster that young trainer Cameron Milligan has sent out. Her works are solid enough, although her sire, The Hulk, has yet to sire a horse that won on debut in on dirt.  On deeper tickets, I’ll also toss in Lady Strategy (#8) who is another Street Strategy firster. Like Randy Morse, her trainer, John Prather, has three winners with debuting dirt sprinters in maiden claiming races over the last five years, and all three of those races came on this oval. 

Race 7: 

While this $25K maiden claiming race is carded for three year olds and up, all of the runners are four or older. This is another wide open race with horses coming in from various class levels. While I typically would lean toward class droppers in this race, I’m interested in Trouble Ahead (#3), who was claimed for $20K at Churchill in his last start. Cristian Torres is on fire, winning three more races yesterday and he’ll take the mount for Kevin Martin. This Into Mischief gelding has finished second in his last two starts, and I think the six furlong distance here suits him better than some of the other runs in this race. He just missed two starts ago and he’s been working well enough in the mornings since shipping here. This might be the right level of competition for Secret Legend (#9), who often gets close, but has trouble sealing the deal. He drops another level in class after finishing 4th against an above average field for a $40K-$35K maiden claiming group here. He was caught behind some horses down the backstretch, which hindered him from running his best race. He was very sharp in his second race off the layoff last season, so with a small improvement and a good ride, he’s a candidate to have his picture taken. Flyin Private (#14) is one of two horses that Peter Miller entered in this race, and this Laoban gelding would definitely be the preferred runner should he participate. He’ll need two defections in order to get into the body of this field, which can be tricky. However, he ran credible races against better competition in two starts here last spring, but he’s been sidelined since. Miller takes over the training from Val Brinkerhoff, and his numbers with new acquisitions and horses coming off layoffs are solid. Ky Do Declare (#11) is also a Miller runner that he’ll be saddling for the first time. He was claimed for $30K in a two turn race at Churchill in the slop at the end of November. My hunch for this one is that he’s going to be a better horse at one turn on the dirt, and while I wonder if the six furlong trip might be a shade too short for him, I think he could improve, while going off long odds in this scramble. 

Race 8: 

The Late Pick-4 begins with a time restricted $35K-$30K claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. This race is carded for horses that have not won a race in three months, but you’ll find the favorite, Titled Lady (#12) coming off a win in her last start in November. Since that was a $20K claiming race that she is coming out of, she remains eligible for this condition. Randy Morse claimed her out of that race and this feels like a condition that was written for her, or at the very least, it’s a condition that fits her like a glove. She was very good at the 24-25 meet here, clearing the N1X and N2X allowance conditions in consecutive starts. She missed a little time and then went off form in the spring before coming back to easily win that $20K claimer at Churchill. While Maker claimed her for $62,500 in August of 2024 and lost her for only $20K, by virtue of winning two allowance races here where the purses were over $100K, she was clearly profitable. The issue appears to be that there aren’t many conditions left for her, and stakes races are problematic because she was not racing with Lasix for those two poor efforts in the spring. She’s a six year old mare that is likely close to her ceiling, but she’s consistent and just better than these ladies. Morse gets to run her in a race where she’s listed for $15K more than he claimed her for, but she’s not getting that much (if any at all) of a class hike. I’ll use Mercy Warren (#2) as a longer priced backup in this race. The mare has some high peaks, but some low valleys, and her last two races fit squarely in the latter column. She was very sharp this summer, and if that mare does appear in her first start off the Lon Wiggins claim, she can compete with the favorite. However, I’m going to need value to take that proposition. The 20-1 number is probably fair when looking at this large field, because I do think Stellar Lily (#1) drawing directly inside of her makes her task more difficult. 

Race 9, The $150K Mockingbird Stakes:

The featured race on the card drew a field of seven three year old fillies, set to sprint six furlongs. While Woodstock (#7) has been facing the best horses, I’m siding with Wakuda (#4) in this race. It took her a little while to figure some things out, and having two turf sprints sprinkled in between her first two dirt starts didn’t really help her development. She’s been sharp in all four dirt races, which includes two wins in her last two starts.She broke her maiden at Remnigton two back and she was a determined winner in a small field in the Zia Park Princess Stakes at the end of November. She was chasing a slow pace that afternoon on an unfamiliar track, but she still was able to gut out a victory. The Beyer came back very light from that race, but the Equibase figure was more generous. I’m not taking too much stock in a figure for a two year old filly in a short field in New Mexico. I like what I’ve seen on the track from her and I think that lower number will keep her odds more reasonable. Asmussen and Rosario have been heating up this week and I think they’ll take down another stakes race after scoring together in the Renaissance for three year old sprinters yesterday. There’s no denying that Woodstock has been facing the best horses of any of her rivals in this race. While she ran well at Keeneland in the Myrtlewood, her race in the Fern Creek was not great. While Asmussen has been heating up, Maker’s barn has been a little cold to start things off here. I see her as more of a backup. I’m thinking about a 70/30 split between these two with how I’d attack the mult-race wagers. 

Race 10:

The $5 Late Double will consist of two N1X allowance races, starting with this one mile test for fillies and mares. This is one of those races where there are two talented runners, Kerry’s Kiss (#13) and Overcome Adversity (#14), stuck on the AE list. With a 26 day break looming, I’d imagine both runners would like to go if given the chance, however I’m not sure Overcome Adversity will leave his Kentucky base for a race he’s not guaranteed to participate in. I would use this one if she does show up, but I’m handicapping under the assumption that she won’t be racing. How you attack this race will depend on how you feel about the last effort from Gowells Delight (#8). She drew an outside post in her first start since June. Kerry’s Kiss was posted outside of her and she pressed Gowells Delight every step of the way. Kerry’s Kiss went forward while Gowells Delight faded to the back of the field. Somehow, Kerry’s Kiss was not the winner as Zagruhta got what might have been the best head bob of 2025 to win by the slimmest of margins. Gowells Delight was working up a storm coming into that at the Fair Grounds and for her to run that poorly, tells me that she might be one of those horses that just doesn’t like this course. Her only other effort here was a dull 4th place finish in the Martha Washington last winter. She was much more competitive at Churchill and the Fair Grounds, so for me, she’s going to be in this race that I’m going to try to beat. While Kerry’s Kiss was good enough to win, the track here has been playing more evenly this week, and if she does race, she’s going to have to run a bigger race from another outside post. Also, for her to run back two weeks after such a big effort suggests to me that she might not be in peak form if she’s in this race. I’m going to try a price here and make Ce La Vi Charli (#2) the top pick. She looks like a horse that might appreciate a two turn race on the dirt, which is something that she has never done. She showed absolutely no early speed in her two turn races on the turf, and her lone win on the dirt came at 6 ½ furlongs at Churchill with beaten $40K claimers. She missed the break in an allowance sprint here when drawing the outside post. She ran on with some decent energy to get into 4th. Her figures are trending up, and I don’t trust some of the early speed in this race. Colonial Rose (#5) is the morning line favorite, and her price will vary depending on who draws in and how forgiving the betting public will be regarding Gowells Delight and her last start. She fits very well in the body of the field. She has finished in the money in her last six starts which came at Keeneland, Saratoga, and Churchill. She has tactical speed that will allow her to sit off some of the cheaper speed in this race and make a run at the leaders late. If her odds float up a bit, I’m definitely going to be more interested. Ozona (#4) is an absolute wildcard in this race for Rosario and Asmussen. She ran well to dominate a state bred maiden special weight sprint in the slop at Horseshoe Indy in her only career start. This is a big step up in class, but I don’t like too many other runners here, especially if the two AE’s are not racing. Putting them on the tickets is strictly a connections play, as I don’t make a habit of betting back horses with big figures on off tracks, especially on debut. I know I’d want better than 5-1, but I feel that’s going to be unlikely. She feels like a horse that could either win with ease or finish near the back of the pack, but since there are other places to get skinny in this sequence, I won’t let her beat me. 

Race 11:

The Holiday Portion of the 25-26 Oaklawn meet concludes with a N1X allowance race at six furlongs, which is essentially the second division of the nightcap from yesterday. Stiglets was a dominant winner in that race, and he finished about three lengths ahead of El Prestigo (#7) in a race at this level at Churchill in his last start. That was his first start against winners after finally breaking through the maiden ranks in his 7th career start at Keeneland in October. While he didn’t get the job done, I thought he ran a credible race, while going wide on the turn. Asmussen has been patient with this four year old son of Practical Joke, and that patience is starting to pay dividends. This field is not as deep as the field the Stiglets handled yesterday, and his performance absolutely flatters this colt here. The backup for me is Zat’s the One (#12) in the outside stall for Phil D’Amato. He was steadily improving in one turn races here and a t Churchill last year before putting it all together when breaking his maiden in a two turn race. While routing might be what he’s going to do best, he showed an ability to be competitive in one turn efforts. D’Amato has a good record with runners off the layoff, but I do think he’s running into a tough customer here. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 23/121 (19.0%, $163.20 $1.35 ROI)