Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 12/20/25 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a lot of quality racing going on this afternoon in the south central part of the country. While there’s stakes laden cards at Remington and the Fair Grounds, the day to day racing remains top notch at Oaklawn. The Tinsel Stakes for older horses is the featured race of the afternoon. The first of ten races is set to go off at 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Saturday program starts with a $12,500 maiden claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. You’ll notice that in all of the races at this condition in Arkansas, state bred horses are eligible to run with a $20K claiming tag. I think this is a good spot for Bo Bo Dough (#7), breaking from the outside. He’s making his second start off the layoff after running a dull race against tougher in a six furlong sprint at Churchill last month. He drops in class, but as an Arkansas bred, he is still eligible to run with the waiver. I thought his first try at two turns while competing at this level at Churchill was better than it looks on paper. He’s a lightly raced three year old, so there is room for improvement while facing a field of professional maidens. Wartank (#4) feels like a bad favorite in this race. He is dropping to the bottom for the first time, but he has been beaten by double digit lengths in all six of his dirt starts and his last two races weren’t competitive at all. Instead, I’ll use Heats Hero (#5) who is going from turf to dirt for Danny Pish. While he’s 0-11 in his career, he has been competitive in his two two-turn dirt races, earning figures that are likely good enough to beat this group. Bolt’s Treasure (#6) also earns consistency points in this race. He ships here from Ohio for Kim Puhl. She wins a lot of races year in and year out on the Ohio Circuit, but her runners have historically struggled here. She had a rough 2023-24 meet here, but last year was a little better. This son of Bolt d’Oro was competitive on this course last season when facing better. He was third against winners in a N2L allowance race at Thistledown in his last start. He went off at 9-5 in that race as an 0-15 maiden, so I don’t think there was much depth to that field. However, I figure this is still a bit of class relief as he moves to a tougher circuit for the winter. 

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares that have never won three times will sprint six furlongs in this $50K starter allowance race. I believe that how you attack this race depends on whether or not you trust Nerazurri (#5) at this six furlong distance. She is graded stakes placed at seven furlongs and she has two strong efforts under her belt since joining Mark Casse’s barn. She was a close third in a nine furlong N2X allowance race at Keeneland and she followed up that effort with a decent 4th place finish in a Claiming Crown race on grass (which was the first time trying the lawn for this Protonico filly). She was second to Haulin Ice in the Princess Rooney at long odds at Gulfstream and that one is a very good sprinter, who is superior to anyone in this field. This filly broke her maiden at this distance, and while I am not convinced this is going to be her best distance, I’m going to lean on her class as no one in this field has been facing the quality of runners she has been up against lately. Ma Rae’s Girl (#9) is the backup for me in this spot. While most of her work has come on the turf, her dirt efforts aren’t terrible. She came to Churchill and finished 5th after breaking at the back of the pack. She typically has more tactical speed than she showed in that spot, so I’m thinking she might have needed that race. I’m expecting a better effort in her second start for Jacobson and her second start off the layoff. 

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this $30K maiden claimer. This is a tough race to figure as the morning line favorite has lost her last two races by a combined total of nearly 29 lengths. Big Red Machine (#2) is the top pick for me here. She’s making her career debut for Lindsay Schultz, who started off last weekend with a pair of winners. The works are solid enough to think she can contend with this group. The dam’s first foal to compete has three wins in nine career starts, Her sire Runhappy  was a December debut winner as a two year old, and he has sired 10% first out winners in dirt sprint races over the last five years. News Too Serious (#8) showed some early spark before fading in the late stages of her debut at Churchill at this level at the end of September. She’s been sidelined since that effort which came on a muddy course. She was a big longshot in that race where the early pace was competitive. She’s likely to get a fast main strip this afternoon, which could be a chance for an upgraded effort. Crevalla de Vil (#12) is the morning line favorite in this spot. Her last two efforts have not been great, but she did have trouble in both starts. She missed the break entirely last out, a middle move, and then flattened out. She lost action on the turf at Keeneland two back after having to take up. I don’t mind the drop in class as she was only a $20K purchase last year. Casse ended up with three winners from seven starters last week, so he’s bringing live stock to the races here. She does have a chance to move forward and the outside draw should afford her a better trip. It;s hard to get excited about taking anyone at 3-1 in this race, but I do think she’s worth considering. 

Race 4:

If you follow the races at Oaklawn, there are a lot of familiar names coming back in this state bred, optional $50K claiming/allowance race. None of the nine runners here are entered with the claiming tag. There’s a lot to like about Navy Seal (#1) in this race. He’s the only horse in Nancy Knott’s barn, but he had a very productive 2025 for her, winning two of seven starts while never finishing off the board and bankrolling over $235K. He was a winner in his comeback race in December last year, which would be a comparable race to this one. I think he has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance distance of Bohemian Bo (#7), who figures to be the early pacesetter. I think he’ll be able to grind past him in the final furlong. Willow Creek Road (#9) is not the most consistent runner, but he’s capable of stepping up to run big races from time to time. He was good last year when making his first start off the layoff in an allowance race back in February. He was second in both state bred sprint races here last season before struggling in his last three starts. It’s worth mentioning that two of those races came against open company and the race in between those efforts was a state bred stakes race at two turns. He now runs for Rodolphe Brisset, who has a good track record with horses coming off the bench. He could be sneaky here at a price. Bohemian Bo won his comeback race here when facing open company back in December of 2024. He hasn’t won since though, tailing off a bit after leaving here in the spring. He’s the speed of the speed and he could easily play catch me if you can. At short odds though, I’d have to wonder if he’s lost a step. He’ll be on some tickets, but I think it’s worth trying to beat him. 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. There should be a solid pace up front with Electrifying Lady (#5), Moonlight Dash (#6), and Filly Crystal (#8) all likely wanting a share of the early lead. If she can break well, I think Queen’s Martini (#4) is an interesting alternative that can stalk and pounce on these runners. She was really good three starts ago when narrowly pulling off the upset at Churchill in N2X company. She is still eligible for the N1X races here at Oaklawn because of the purse structure in Indiana where she won a N1X race. She tried this company twice last year and she was slow to break from the gate in large fields, costing her valuable early positioning. That break really stung two back when she rushed up on heels into traffic to try to find a spot to settle, and she wound up blocked behind runners for the better part of the race. She chased a fast pace two back, but had no answer when Gloriette kept finding on the front end. She’s better than both of those efforts and she’s been working well in the mornings over this oval. Moonlight Dash ran a huge race in her second career start, breaking her maiden with ease at Churchill. That race came six months to the day of her ill-fated debut on the turf where she was eased and taken off the track in an equine ambulance. She looked no worse for wear, scoring emphatically last time. She’ll now face winners and after taking pace pressure along the inside, she is at risk for being stuck in between rivals here, assuming Rosado wants to keep inside position with Electrifying Lady. However, if there’s any further improvement from the debut, she’s going to be very tough to deal with. These are the two that stand out to me in this race.

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $75K N2L claiming race for fillies and mares traveling one mile. Stylish Lady (#2) is the lukewarm morning line favorite and she has a bit of an interesting background. She showed nothing in her first two tries this past spring at the Fair Grounds and Churchill. She went to Indiana in August where she benefitted from the class relief while scoring in gate to wire fashion in a maiden allowance race there. Despite paying $485K for her at auction, CRK Stables entered her in the Keeneland November Sale where she sold for pennies on the dollar, fetching a mere $42K. She’s been moved to Steve Asmussen’s barn and this feels like a very clever spot for her to be entered in. From an ownership standpoint, this race is almost a no-lose proposition. Any combination of a win and or a claim will pretty much net a gain for them, only a month after making that investment. If she loses, there are still several paths for her to turn a profit for her investors. However, there is more risk involved for the handicapper here, especially if this one is a short price. Knowing that these higher priced claiming races are available in Kentucky, her prior owners opted to put her up for auction. They could have set a reserve to protect her if she was going for less than they bargained for, which suggests to me that they weren’t shocked by the price this one fetched. That makes me curious as to why she was offered up for so little. Her last race suggested that she has some ability, albeit not nearly as much as expected. After watching the races yesterday, I’d be more confident in her chances if Erik Asmussen were riding. He won the first two races of the day on the Friday card, but he’s riding in Oklahoma today where he’ll wrap an extremely productive Remington Park where he won 26% of the races he rode in. She’s a deeper saver for me. Lookster (#7) feels like the more viable option in this race to me. She has drawn outside posts in her last two starts, which were her first two starts in over a year. She covered a lot of ground in both races, especially the turf race at Keeneland last out. While Post 7 is still in the outer half of the starting gate, it’s still more favorable than the outside draws she had. She has more tactical speed than most in this race, so she should be able to secure a solid early position where she’s not conceding several lengths of ground to her rivals. Her 2024 efforts on this course are likely good enough to keep her right there with this level. Promisemeanempire (#1)was decent in her races on this oval in 2024. After leaving Diodoro’s barn, she went off form for the better part of the summer. She resurfaced at Delaware while moving into Dan Ward’s barn. Her first start for him was a bit dull, but she was much tighter in her last try at Remington. This level feels like a decent fit for her.

Race 7: 

We’ll move to another restricted claiming race, this one for $30K-$25K N3L claimers going six furlongs. I think the morning line favorite, Crew Dragon (#6) is extremely vulnerable in this spot. He has not won a race since August of 2021 and he’s never won a race in his life on the dirt. His speed figures are solid, but he doesn’t have a ton of tactical speed and he doesn’t have a particularly strong finishing kick. I’d definitely include him in the lower rungs of the vertical exotics, but I’m siding against him in the win spot and on any of the multi-race wagers. Authentic Gallop (#12) was really good in his two starts on this course last season. I was strongly against him in a N1X allowance race here in February, and he came through in between horses with an impressive late surge to score. His five starts since that race have not been good though, losing those races by a combined 112 lengths (beaten 22.4 lengths per start). He tried the Virginia Derby on a speed favoring course at Colonial and was never involved. He tried lesser stakes races, then an allowance race, and most recently, a beaten $80K claimer. He plummets in class today, but he returns to the oval where he has both career wins. I wonder about this distance for him, but if that horse that ran so well here last winter is still in him, I think this is going to be the spot where he’ll show it. Glass of Jameson (#5) ships here from Del Mar for Peter Eurton following a 5th place finish there with open $25,000-$22,500 claimers. This three year old Clubhouse Ride gelding gradually continues to improve with each start. As a late season three year old, it is certainly possible that he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. Another horse that doesn’t have a ton of miles logged is Bavaria Road (#9). He’s a four year old Speightstown gelding racing for Coty Rosin. He has five starts, and they’ve all been fairly consistent. One of those wins came on the turf and the other came in an allowance race at Canterbury in his last start back in June. Emmanuel Esquivel gets the assignment for a barn that excels with having horses fire when they’re fresh. 

Race 8, The $150K Tinsel Stakes:

The featured race today in a nine furlong stakes race for older horses. There are two short priced runners here, and of that pair, Willy D’s (#4) has a clear pace advantage. The only other speed horse in this race is Woodcourt (#2), and his recent form has been poor since coming back from a lengthy layoff. Willy D’s should be able to apply pressure from the outside, without having to battle for the lead. When the real running begins, I’d expect him to be able to go by with relative easy, and thus, getting the jump on Rattle N Roll (#7). The caveat for this race is that Willy D’s is cross-entered in the Jeffery A. Hawk Memorial Stakes at Remington later this evening. He’s a shorter price in this race and he’s locally based in a race which has a purse that is $75K larger than the one in Oklahoma. I’m thinking he’s going to run in this spot, but if he doesn’t, Woodcourt would be the only speed horse, and while his recent form is not the best, he does like the local oval, and not having anyone to really pressure him could work in his favor. I’d consider him as the top pick only if Willy D’s defects. He’s strictly a deeper saver in this seven horse field stays intact. Rattle N Roll is clearly the class of this field. He’s a multiple graded stakes winner that has banked over $3.5 million in his career. He closed well to be second in the Fayette where the early pace was lively. He finished midpack in the Clark Stakes at Churchill last month, a race that he won last year. He has shown very little early pace since coming back from Dubai, and I don’t know if that running style is going to play well with this field. He’s a four time winner at this distance and his class could be enough to put him over the top, but I think the value will be a little better on the top pick. 

Race 9:

The $5 Last Call Daily Double starts with an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race going six furlongs. We’ve seen a lot of talent at this condition throughout the last several years at Oaklawn, and while there are some nice horses, several of which have a smattering of brilliant efforts, entered in this one, this is not the most consistent group for this level. Dive Bomber (#4) is moving up the class ladder, but he comes in hit, winning his last three starts coming at Churchill and Keeneland. All three of those efforts came in races slightly longer than this one, but he did break his maiden at this distance last year. He’s versatile enough to run a good race from any part of the track. He makes his first start for Shea Stuart, who had a winner on yesterday’s card. Dropping on class seemed to help Carbone (#5) find his best stride once again. This son of Mitole ran brilliantly here on New Year’s Eve back in 2023, going gate to wire in an allowance race which stamped him as a Derby contender. However, Mystik Dan showed him up in his next start, and it took him a long time to find the Winner’s Circle after that. He scored impressively when dropping in class at Remington back in September. He came back in an allowance race there, going one mile. He was sent off as the 1-10 favorite, but he couldn’t quite hold on in the late stages. Asmussen keeps him protected and moves him up in class, while cutting back to a sprint, which I think suits him better. I think he could contend with this group here. Big City (#1) has a longshot look here, making his first start since February for Ray Ashford. This barn has started off hot, winning with two of their first seven starters. He was a winner at the N1X level on this course at this distance back in January. He’s fired when coming off the bench in the past. 

Race 10: 

The day concludes with a N1X allowance race going six furlongs. There’s another fascinating horses in this race. Invictus (#11) is the first foal to race from the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Serengeti Empress. WinStar farm paid $1.2 million for this colt, who came up with a monster win this spring in his second start at Keeneland. He struggled at two turns in the Sir Barton Stakes, and then finished 5th at Churchill in an effort that looked better visually than it did on paper. He struggled in his last start at Saratoga and has been on the sidelines since. He needed to be gelded, which likely made him significantly less valuable to WinStar. It appears he was privately purchased by Joel Politi, who transferred him to Tom Amoss. These are the same connections who campaigned Serengeti Empress, so this feels like a move to honor the mother. If he’s right, he’s the one to beat, however there are definitely some questions. I’ll play him on top  because I think he has the most raw talent. However, I’ll look for coverage. Raise the Bar (#1) is likely going to be sent from his rail post. His three wins are very good and it helps his cause that four of the ten races yesterday were won by gate to wire winners. He’s won both starts since adding Lasix. He’s going to have competition from Turn Up the Trees (#4) and Sinner’s Sin (#8), who are also very quick from the gate. Turn Up the Trees ran 6th in a N1X allowance here last weekend. This would be his third start in four weeks, and it’s not uncommon to see a David Jacobson horse scratch out of a race. That would certainly help the cause for Raise the Bar. With all of that speed signed up, I do want to make sure I’m covered with a horse that can come from off the pace. Gunflash (#7) fits that bill. He ran well while coming from off the pace here last December, but was unable to seal the deal. I don’t love his 0-10 record on this oval, but Ray Ashford trains him, and he’s had a nice recent run with horses first off the claim. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 7/40 (17.5%, $58.00 $1.45 ROI)