Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 12/14/25 – By Eric Solomon

Opening weekend concludes with another 10 race program. The first running of the Astral Spa Overnight Stakes will headline the card. Two year old fillies that are in search of their first stakes win will sprint in that race. Watch how the track is playing today because the high temperature this afternoon is forecasted to be about 25 degrees cooler than it was yesterday, just narrowly above freezing. Sometimes rapid weather changes can create track biases on this course. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Sunday begins with a $12,500 maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. Arkansas breds will run with a $20K claiming tag. Dawson James (#1) is an interesting case in this race for Thomas Vance. He was sharp on debut in one of the better state bred maiden allowance races here last winter. His next three starts were poor though. He’s been away since the end of April and he’s coming off a very sharp bullet workout here last weekend. Vance has decent numbers off the bench and I like that this one is entered in this race with the waiver. Coastal Breeze (#7) was a $17K purchase by David Jacobsen two months ago. He ran against $50K maiden claimers at Churchill last out and was outclassed by a better field. He plummets in class and is facing a much softer bunch. His speed figures have been consistent, so I think he’s a candidate to improve when racing for this barn for the second time. On deeper tickets, Major League (#5) could fit with these while making his first start locally. He was outclassed with $30K maiden claimers in Louisville. His effort two back at Prairie would likely be good enough to get him close with this field. Many of these are runners are coming off layoffs, so that start could be valuable in terms of his overall fitness. 

Race 2: 

Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 N2L claiming race.For a full field, there isn’t a ton of early speed signed on, and on his best day, Fifth Avenue (#8) is the kind of horse that could exploit that void. After a solid win in maiden allowance company as a two year old in 2023 at Ellis Park, he went to the sidelines for almost two full years. He ran a credible race in an off the turf allowance race at Saratoga in June, but his next two starts could only be classified as disasters. After walking off the track in both of those starts, he did drop in class and was a lot better last time out when facing $20K N2L claimers at Churchill. At this stage in his career, this is probably the right kind of spot for him. He’s a candidate to take this field all the way on the front end. Forty Love (#4) is the morning line favorite for Peter Miller and Ramon Vazquez. This duo had a pair of wins on Opening Day and Vazquez is currently atop the jockey standings with five wins in the first two days of racing here. His figures stand out among this group. I’m not in love with the drop in class after being claimed for $30K two starts ago, however, his consistency makes it hard to exclude him from the multi-race tickets. I’ve been hesitant to back some horses this weekend that were coming here off an uncharacteristically big effort last out. However, a few of those runners yesterday scored, biting me in the ass a little bit. Charley Pride (#3) fits that description in this race. He ran very well to break his maiden with $15K maiden claimers in his last start at Hawthorne. He was a beaten favorite in his three prior starts before annihilating that field in Illinois by over 13 lengths. This is not the worst spot for him to face winners for the first time. He showed some promise in Southern California against fellow Cal breds prior to being transferred to Coty Rosin’s barn. He’s worth including here as well. 

Race 3:

Two year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race. The morning line oddsmaker suggests that this is a race that should come down to either Bet the Gray (#2) or Amazing Amanda (#5). This feels somewhat reasonable since the other runners with experience haven’t caught the eye and the first time starters aren’t really jumping off the page. From a pace standpoint, I’d think the edge goes to Amazing Amanda. She’s been quick from the gate in her first few starts and despite fading late, she battled hard while facing tougher opposition in Kentucky. She’s had a month to settle in here at Oaklawn and I think she’s going to prove to be too tough to catch in this spot. After a dismal debut at the Spa, Bet the Gray was sharper with $150K maiden claimers at Churchill in her last start. While she didn’t have the best break, she closed well into a moderate pace to get into 4th. She was made the slight 7-5 morning line favorite, but it’s hard to justify me taking a shorter price on her seeing as how her final results haven’t been as good. The first time starter that might have the best chance to upset the apple cart would be Rambunctious Rylie (#9). She was working well in early summer before missing 2 ½ months of training. She has been picking up steam at Santa Anita in the AM on both the dirt course and the all-weather training track. Ruis Racing sends her out here, while running for Chris Hartman, who typically conditions most of their mid-west based horses. I’m not loving that she’s entered for a tag, but I do think there is more upside here at first asking than anyone else in this field. 

Race 4:

Two year old colts sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight race which is essentially the second division of the 9th race at this same condition yesterday. Steve Asmussen sends out a pair of runners in this race, including the morning line favorite, Mactak (#8). While that first timer interests me, I think his other horse, Turin (#2) could be flying under the radar in this race. His dam has foaled horses that have been much better at longer distances, so despite being sired by Speightstown, debuting at 4 ½ furlongs probably wasn’t going to be his thing. He broke sharply, but quickly lost ground and found himself in last as they were working their way around the turn. He did start to pick things up, closing into 5th and galloping out nicely. He’s been sidelined since that early May race and while his recent works in New Orleans haven’t been eye-catching, I do think there is some upside here with this half-brother to both Battle of Midway and Moretti. Mactak is sired by Maclean’s Music and he’s the first foal race from the Asmussen trained mare, Casual. She was a debut winner that also won a stakes in her career. Her dam, Lady Tak, won the Grade 1 Test Stakes at the Spa in 2003. He’s another Asmussen runner based in New Orleans, so the fact that they’re shipping him here where the maiden purses are significantly higher, tells me that they like what this horse is showing them. Reclamation (#7) is another firster that is bred to win early. The dam, Showed Up Late, foaled one horse, who was a debut winner at two. The sire, Carocaro, gets 14% winners with debuting runners in dirt sprints. The works are solid for this Chris Davis trainee, who didn’t draw into yesterday’s race. 

Race 5: 

Arkansas bred fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race. The board will be wide open for this one, but somebody is going to win a race for the second time today. I typically prefer the lightly raced runners in races like this, provided that they show me something that makes them worth betting. I think that can be true both 4th time starters, Stephanie Starfish (#7) and Maximum to Excel (#8). I’ll give the slight nod to Stephanie Starfish since she was so good on debut back in January. She sat in midpack in that race and came with a bold move to circle the leaders and draw off easily. Her next two starts were absolute disasters though. She was facing N1X company and she didn’t have great trips in either of those races. She’s been on the bench since March, and seeing as how she won nicely on debut, there’s reason to believe that she can revert to that kind of form while dropping in class and coming from off the bench. This filly feels like Ronnie Huckaby’s best chance to win his first local race yet. Maximum to Excel never had the flashy race, but he did improve in each start. He;s been on the sidelines since April, following his maiden breaking score with $20K maiden claimers. Timothy Martin has been getting him set for his return to the races. He is entered with the waiver for this spot by virtue of being entered for a $20K tag or last out. A longer priced alternative for underneath could be Cashmere Baby (#12) for Michael Hewitt. His last two tries came at Zia, and the bulk of his recent efforts haven’t been as sharp as his Oaklawn races from last year. Perhaps a return here will wake him up. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $10K claiming race for three year olds and up going one mile. I think it’s pretty clear that Bright Spark (#5) is the best horse in this $10K claiming race. However, there’s one concern that I do think is worth discussing. He was claimed for $5K after almost nine months on the sidelines. He was very sharp on this course last season, winning twice in $12,500 starter allowance company. Maybe that drop in class could have been concerning, but he was an easy winner that afternoon, beating two next winners while being geared down late. He was claimed that afternoon by Workman Ranch, but before he ever raced for them, he’s now owned by Southwest Stables, with Genaro Garcia continuing to be his trainer of record. The concern is the apprentice rider, Amir Mendoza gets the assignment aboard a horse that figures to be an even money favorite in this bulky field. I don’t know much about Mendoza, other than that he’s 0-11 to start his North American riding career. Most of his mounts have been double digit longshots, with the shortest priced runner that he’s landed on going off at 8-1. While five of those mounts have come from Garcia, I do wonder about how he’ll handle riding a horse that likes to come from off the pace in a large field, on a course where it looks like you don’t want to be too wide in the stretch. Perhaps Mendoza riding will keep his odds from being too short, because I’m not sure the CAW players that influence many of these pools are going to want to dive in here. He’s going to be on my tickets, and while I don’t want to spread too deep in this leg, I would like some coverage. I’m going to try a few other horses, making the longshot Khozy My Boy (#8) the top pick. He has some tactical speed, which fits the course profile quite well at the moment. He isn’t the most consistent runner, but his form started tailing off after leaving here last season. He made his first start off the layoff in Louisville, struggling with $12,500 claimers when going six furlongs. He did finish that race with some interest and he’s better at two turns. If the favorite finds himself in trouble, I think he’s a candidate to pull off a big upset. Kunshan Bridge (#1) is another runner that hasn’t been in the best form as of late. Steve Asmussen claimed this one two starts back, and he’s been on a steady diet of one turn races for over two years now. Asmuseen had this one before for one start and he stretched him out from a 6 ½ furlong race to a nine furlong race where he finished a game third. He’s getting class relief and going to a two turn race while drawing a favorable post. This could be a good wake-up spot for him. 

Race 7: 

Fillies and mares are traveling six furlongs in this $30K-$25K claiming contest. There’s a lot of speed signed on for this race, which means I want to look for a horse that has some tactical speed, but is going to be comfortable letting the pacesetters duke things out up front. The Iowa bred, Flat Out Rose (#10) is interesting in her local debut. She’s coming off a dull effort in a starter allowance race at Remington which was originally scheduled for the turf. She was wide throughout that day though and never really had a chance. She was sharp in her first start off the claim for Dewaine Loy three starts ago and nearly pulled off a last to first gambit in a state bred allowance race. She’s facing a bigger field, so having a crafty veteran like Walter De La Cruz in the irons, should help. I think she can upset this field with the right trip. The three year old filly, Campaign Promises (#2) could also sit the right kind of trip in this race. She was gradually improving in Ohio before being claimed by Genaro Garcia. Her two starts at Churchill weren’t great, but they were competitive. She is moving from restricted company to open claiming company, but there’s not a standout in this field. It’s interesting that despite the same ownership group as the favorite in the previous race, Emmnauel Esquivel is getting the assignment on this filly. I’ll use the favorite, Brooklynn Drew (#5) as a backup here. She regressed last out after a pair of very sharp races at Churchill in September and early November, winning both with relative ease. She’s getting class relief and she’s likely going to have to work hard in this spot in the early stages. Consistency has been an issue as well, but Jacobsen and Torres teamed up to win together yesterday, and her best is too good for this group.

Race 8:

The $3 Get Out Pick-3 paid over $11K yesterday after some longshots popped in the last two legs. This wager, which has the takeout set at 15%, kicks off today with a $25K starter allowance going one mile, for horses that have started at least one time for a $25K claiming tag since the start of 2023. Half of this field was last seen competing in Claiming Crown races last month at Churchill. I made a case for Gewurztraminer (#11) in a nine furlong starter allowance race here on Friday, however he did not draw in off the AE list for that race. I think I actually like the way he fits when going one mile instead. He’s going turf to dirt after four straight races on the lawn. Of the horses that ran in the Claiming Crown races, his effort was one of the better ones, narrowly missing after leading every step of the way in a 1 1/16 mile contest. He won twice at this distance on this course last season, so I have no problem with the surface switch. Cipriano Contreras has kept him in good form and I think he’ll sit a nice stalking trip behind Empire Builder (#12), who is the morning line favorite. I think the only play for this one is to be sent hard from the gate. The last time he didn’t set the pace was on a wet track here last January. He had a wide draw that day and was never a factor then. If he’s able to get a backside breather, he’s going to be tough, but there are other runners with better posts that want to be forward. I see him as a backup in this spot, but if his odds float up a bit from his 7-2 morning line number, I could be talked into upgrading him. Dr. Storm (#1) is an interesting player here. He drew unlucky Post 14 in the signature Claiming Crown race going nine furlongs on the dirt. He was sent off at 134-1 in that race. Eddie Gallardo had no choice but to settle near the back of the pack as a strong pace developed in front of him. He moved early, taking his shot with the big longshot, slingshotting himself to the front. He was caught late, finishing 4th in that race, beaten less than three lengths. That was a huge effort from him and he has some nice races on this course. I think Gallardo will be able to keep him in a better spot early on here while breaking from the rail. 

Race 9, The $135K Astral Spa Overnight Stakes:

Ten two year old fillies will go six furlongs in the featured race on the Sunday card. Counting Stars (#6) looks to rebound after a dull effort in the Myrtlewood Stakes in her last start at Keeneland. I liked her debut a lot at Churchill, stalking the pace and drawing clear to beat a solid group of fillies. She was not nearly as sharp last out when she failed to keep pace when facing a tougher group. The runner up of that race came back to win the Fern Creek at Churchill in her last start. I think she’s faced the toughest horses and her class should help her prevail in this spot. I don’t know if I love the cutback to six furlongs for Carolyncaroline (#5), but I do like her two dirt efforts in Kentucky. She was competitive on the turf in stakes races at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland, but I think she’s looked more comfortable on the dirt. She came with a four wide bid in a seven furlong race at Churchill, but she was rebuffed and had to settle for second. Lindsay Schultz started off hot at this meet, winning twice on Opening Day. I’ll also toss in Walk Away Kaye (#7), who came from off the pace to easily beat an open maiden field at Remington last month. I’m not sure if Pish thought she would run that well in that spot, as it might have been a prep for a more lucrative maiden allowance race here for fellow Arky breds. As a result, there’s not a lot of spots for her so I like that they’re taking their shot here. If the pace collapses, watch for her late. 

Race 10: 

We’ll close out the week with a N1X contest for fillies and mares going six furlongs.I’m not trying to beat You’ll Be Back (#12) in this spot. This three year old filly was very good last season, hitting the board in two stakes races on this oval. She was sharp when breaking her maiden off a similar layoff at the Fair Grounds last November. She was last seen finishing second at long odds in the Miss Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. Her only dull effort came in a one turn, 1 1/16 mile race at Colonial in the Virginia Oaks, and that race came on a course that was very glib and very kind to front end speed. I think the outside post fits her perfectly, and I have no issue with her taking on her elders in this spot. The backup for me is Gin’s Beach Road (#6). Perhaps six furlongs is where this Quality Road filly is going to shine. She’s a full sister to Agate Road, who was a Grade 2 winner on the turf. She was very sharp three back ,but she struggled in her last two. She’s a player here, but I think the top pick is just better at this point in their career. 

Final 2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 88/432 (20.4%, $771.20, $1.79 ROI)