Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday 12/21/25 – By Eric Solomon

The week ends with another ten race card at Oaklawn Park. Filly and mare sprinters will take the spotlight in the Poinsettia Stakes this afternoon. The first of ten races is set to go off at 12:30 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares will start the day in a $10K claiming race, exclusively for Arkansas breds. The Girl in Red (#3) makes her second start off the layoff for Bret Calhoun. She came back at Delta in a two turn, 6 ½ furlong race, where she didn’t run a step. Calhoun has decent numbers second off the layoff, and I’m typically forgiving of horses who run an uncharacteristically poor race at bullring tracks like Delta. She gets class relief and gets the services of former leading rider, David Cabrera, who is making his first ride of the meet here. Summer Shoes (#5) was a winner at this class level last year. She’s making her first start since narrowly missing in a beaten claiming race at the end of the 24-25 meet back in April. Tom Swearingen’s horses tend to need a start before they’re at their best, however, her first race off the bench wasn’t terrible last year. Memory Maker (#1) is a three year old Gift Box filly that is exiting some lower level claiming races in open company at Louisiana Downs. She figured some things out in her last two starts, winning them both with relative ease. She’s been off for three months, but this feels like the right level of competition for her at Oaklawn. 

Race 2:

A field of eight fillies and mares will go one mile in this optional $30K claiming/$20K starter allowance contest. All eight runners in this race are entered under the $20K starter allowance condition. The two favorites in this spot, Our Liberty Belle (#6) and Windy Walk (#7) will start side by side in this race and I think there’s a good chance they’re going to finish that way. Our Liberty Belle  is the one I prefer on top here. She’s coming out of a very salty race on Claiming Crown Day at Churchill. She’s clearly a better mare on the dirt where she has 8 wins in 21 starts. In fact she’s never hit the board in her 9 other starts on synthetic or turf. That reason was why I was a bit surprised to see her enter in a race on the grass last month. She likes to come from off the pace and horses were winning that way, especially in the back half of the card yesterday. I think she’ll rebound here. Windy Walk was entered in the same turf race last time out, and also finished off the board. While these horses travel in similar circles, that was the first time they hooked up. They followed each other here and she’ll be the one that the top pick will be trying to run down. She’s also very consistent, winning 10-23 career starts. On dirt, she has 10 wins in 18 starts.

Race 3:

The Mid-Card Pick-5 begins with a $20K-$16K N2L claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. This is a tough race to make sense of because most of these horses don’t really love to win races. I landed on He Is Heaven Sent (#7), making his first start off the claim by Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez. He’s taken over as the main trainer for End Zone Athletics after Karl Broberg stepped away from training racehorses. His numbers first off the claim are sharp, winning at a 28% clip for his career. He’s 4-13 when claiming a horse and giving them a 61-180 day layoff, and nine of those 13 runners finished in the money. His last try was dull, but his prior efforts would likely make him competitive with this group. Solevo (#5) may have started to figure some things out. He lost his first 18 starts before breaking his maiden at Remington last month in start number 19. He came back and ran a sharp race when facing winners for the first time. Erik Asmussen had a great day on closing night at Remington and he’ll get the call tonight for his dad. Mamoot (#9) is a longer priced option that might have some upside in this spot. This Echo Town three year is coming off a pair of subpar efforts, but he does drop in class for Mertan Kantarmaci. Six furlongs is probably his best distance, so this might be an opportunity for him to rebound. 

Race 4:

Beaten $10K claimers going six furlongs will start the Mid-Card Pick-4 today. This race is restricted to horses that have not won twice in the last six months. I think Rabbit Hound (#7) for Dan Ward is the one to beat in this race. Despite being eligible for N1X allowance company, he was entered in a N2X allowance test at Monmouth this sumer where he pulled off a 14-1 upset. He struggled in his next three starts there and at Colonial, but he did look better when dropping into open claiming in New York in his last start. Dan Ward hands the reins to Amir Mendoza, who is a seven pound apprentice that has made a favorable impression early on at this meet, winning with three of ten starters so far. I think he’s going to be tough to deal with at this level. Knicks Story (#9) is one that I’d like better if he were on the board at 8-1 or better as opposed to his 5-1 morning line. His last four starts have not been good, but this does feel like a spot where he could be in line to get right. He’s second off the layoff while also making his second start since being re-claimed by Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez. I’m not sure if we’re going to see the 2024 version of him again, but at this level, I don’t think he needs to get back to that kind of form. Cutting back to a sprint should also help his cause. Golden Hornet (#11) could be a pace factor in this spot, as he’s one of two horses that Genaro Garcia will send out. He was competitive two and three starts ago in Indiana, but he tired to be 5th in starter allowance company when making his last start. He does have some nice efforts on this course in past seasons, so perhaps the change in scenery will help him get right. 

Race 5: 

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $40K-$35K maiden claiming race which starts the $1 Classix Pick-6. I’m going to take a stand against Dawn at Normandy (#10) in this spot. He ran twice last year in maiden allowance company, going off at long odds in both. He put up a big Beyer Figure at 63-1 to finish 4th in his second try in April. He’s been sidelined since and now shows up with a $40K tag. Perhaps class will prevail, but Robert Medina’s horses typically need a race off the layoff before they start to run their better races. There are too many red flags here for me to take a short price on him. There’s two that I’ll use in this race, starting with La Lengua (#11) in the outside stall. I think there’s something to be said for good efforts and this Thousand Words gelding has solid tries in both career starts. He debuted in June of 2024 at Prairie Meadows in an Iowa bred maiden special weight race going 4 ½ furlongs. He was bumped hard out of the gate, which caused him to be near the back of the pack early. He still rallied well to get into second that day. After that race, he went away for 17 months before coming back in an open maiden special weight race at Remington, originally carded for the turf. 11 horses entered in that race and he battled for all five furlongs, missing by just a half length that day. He’ll stretch out to six furlongs today and moving to maiden claiming company here feels like the right move, as it’s relatively comparable to a maiden allowance race on a lesser circuit. He’s been gelded since his last start and the owners have moved him to Todd Jordan’s barn for this start. He has good numbers with new acquisitions, so I think this one could be a threat to upset this field in his second start off the layoff. Poppa Echo (#8) feels like the main danger to me. He ran in some salty maiden special weight races here and in Kentucky last season. He ran into the winner of the 2025 Southwest Stakes, Speed King, in Kentucky in November and then outran his long odds here in a tough maiden allowance race in December. He had a brutal trip in January and went to the sidelines until resurfacing in September in a $50K maiden claiming race at Churchill. He was more competitive at that level and Cipriano Contreras claimed him after a near miss that day. While I’m not crazy about another three month break and then a drop for a $40K tag, Contreras has won at a 22% clip with this move over the last five years. 

Race 6:

The final Pick-5 of the afternoon begins with an open $20K claiming sprint going six furlongs. I Got No Munny (#4) makes a ton of sense here. He was good enough to win at this level at Keeneland when facing a better field than what he’s up against today. While he’s winless in three career starts here, he has three sharp efforts on this oval. He comes here in very good form, winning two in a row and narrowly missing in his two starts prior to that. Tracy Tanner has been sharp first off the claim. She’s 7 for 21 in with those runners in the last two years and has won with 20% of those horses over a five year sample. The plan was to come here so I don’t mind that he missed the Churchill meet. He feels like the one to beat in this contest. The backup for me will be Fifty Cent Dollars (#2). He was in really good form when he was claimed for $20K here in the spring. He’s been sidelined for nine months since that strong effort though. Timothy Martin doesn’t have great numbers off the layoff, which does explain the 6-1 starting point. At that price or higher, I do think he’s worth the risk since he loves this course and he’s quite versatile. He’s only had one off the board finish in nine tries here. While he probably wants to go a little longer than the six furlong trip he gets here, he’s proven that he can compete in one turn races. While he’s likely a better bet next time, he’s done enough to at least be a backup for me in this spot. 

Race 7: 

This is another six furlong race, this one being a $75K N2L claimer for three year olds and up. This feels like the right time to drop Rowdy Riot (#1) in for the tag. He was competitive in allowance company on this course last year, finishing 3rd four straight times, however, he just wasn’t quite good enough to do better. He ran well at Churchill in an off the turf N1X race three back, but faltered when getting him back on the lawn two back. He was overmatched when going off at nearly 40-1 at the N1X level at Churchill last month, which felt like the signal to get this one some class relief. He’s earned more than his purchase price on the track and he’s been given several chances. The fact that, prior to his last start, he was battling and running solid efforts, tells me that Randy Morse found a good spot for a rebound. Thunderhawk (#8) is coming out of the same race, and his effort also tells me that this drop is likely warranted. He was very sharp two back when racing in N1X company on this course in February. He’s making his second start off the layoff, so I expect him to be sharper in this race. Ripped (#7) is a big X factor here. In his 13th start, he broke his maiden at Churchill, putting together two races where he earned big speed figures. He walked home in an allowance race on closing day there when going a one turn mile while facing winners for the first time. Perhaps the six furlong distance will be where he shines, and the class relief will help. There were enough dull efforts prior to those sharp fall races to consider the possibility that he’s gone off form. His best wins this race, but there is a definite all or nothing feel with him.

Race 8, The $150K Poinsettia Stakes:

A half dozen fillies and mares will dash 5 ½ furlongs in the featured race of the afternoon. This race starts the 6-5 morning line favorite, Hillerito (#2). She is coming off a win in the Dream Supreme Stakes at Churchill and she’s managed to win 4 of her last 5 starts. She has 6 wins and 2 second place finishes in her 8 career tries and speed is the name of her game. I think the shortened distance here only helps her cause. I don’t think anyone is fast enough to go with her early and I think she’ll keep on going late. If someone is going to get to her, it’s going to be Benedetta (#4). She’s making her second start off the layoff for Steve Asmussen today. She made her first start off the break for Steve Asmussen when running in the Mahoning Valley Distaff last month in Ohio. She went to the front in that race, which is not really her game. She was moving well, but the layoff likely caught up with her in the final furlong as she was caught in the final 50 yards. She likes the course and she’s better on a fast track, which should be what she’s working with today. I think she can get close, but I think the favorite is just a little better right now. 

Race 9:

The $5 Last Call Double will consist of two divisions of a N1X allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Adogate (#2) is the one for me in the first division. She is coming off a strong effort at Remington, which was reminiscent of her earlier form. She went off form over the summer, running three dull races in a row. Asmussen gave her a little extra time before her last start and she came through with a convincing score. She’s never gone two turns, but her best efforts have come at seven furlongs. She has had some stops and starts, so this feels like the time to take that swing. The outside post is no picnic for Allihies (#11), but there are things to like about this California invader for Adam Kitchingman. I’ve liked a few of the runners that he’s brought here, but they’ve yet to pay dividends at this meet. However, this filly has been toughened up by jumping in the deep end of the pool after breaking her maiden in a modest $32K maiden claiming race at Santa Anita back in March. She was a game 5th at this level at Del Mar after dropping back into allowance company after leaving the graded stakes ranks. Abel Cedillo will need to work out a trip, but he’s off to a good start at this meet. On deeper tickets, I’ll include Low Key (#3). This one has a habit of leaving himself too much work to do. However, we saw some deeper closers seal the deal on this course yesterday, so we know the track has been playing fairly. He was a winner with $100K claimers at the Spa this summer and he was the runner up at this level in the two starts that followed that effort. His last race at Churchill wasn’t great, but perhaps the nine furlong trip wasn’t what he was looking for.

Race 10:

The second division of this N1X allowance contest for fillies and mares closes out the 6th day of racing at this 25-26 Oaklawn Meet. For this two turn race, the majority of the serious contenders are starting in the outside portion of the starting gate. Interestingly enough, the majority of the early speed is slotted in those post positions as well. The big favorite is Gowell’s Delight (#9) is who is making her first start since a 5th place finish at this level at Churchill in June. She’s clearly the one to beat as she was on the Kentucky Oaks trail earlier this year, losing to horses like Good Cheer and Nitrogen in those races. After opting for a turf race on Derby Day, she came back and just missed at this level on a muddy course at the beginning of June. She fell apart late as the favorite in the slop in her last start. She’ll be back on a fast track today and she’s facing a softer group as there is a lot of filler in the inner gates in this race. However, Zaghruta (#8), Kerry’s Kiss (#10), and Crimsonite (#11) are likely going to have to send from their posts. This could create a solid pace that could be melting down in the final furlong. I’ll roll the dice and make Mysidehustle (#2) the top pick. I think she’ll be able to sit a nice mid-pack trip from her inside post. She was a winner at this level at Remington last out, but because of the purse structure there, she remains eligible for this condition at Oaklawn. She started to round back into her better form as the meet went on. While Kerry’s Kiss got the better of her two back, I think the pace scenario favors her in this spot. Zaghruta is a play against for me in this spot. She has one standout race in Indiana, but despite winning four times in ten starts, she has been very ordinary in races like this. Brad Cox’s horses have not run well early on at this meet and with Luis Saez riding for him, this one should take money. Crimsonite (#11) is a more desirable alternative, who will be a B line play for me. The outside post is not ideal, but perhaps that will force her to rate today. She broke near the inside in a nine furlong race at this level at Churchill in her most recent try. She committed to send for the lead and wound up dueling herself into submission that day. I liked her maiden breaking effort two back and if she can find some more consistency, she has the potential to be a nice horse going into her four year old season for this barn. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 10/50 (20.0%, $88.00 $1.76 ROI)