It’s going to be a hot one this afternoon in Hot Springs, with highs nearing 88 degrees for this Sunday afternoon card. The featured race is a N2L allowance contest for fillies and mares going one mile. First post is set for 12:30 (CDT) today.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 6,5 | 3 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3,4 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 8,7 | DBL, PK3,PK6 | |
| 5 | 5 | 5,4 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 6 | 1 | 1,5 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 7 | 7 | 2 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | $5 DBL | |
| 9 | 1 | 1,2,5 |
Race 1:
The Sunday matinee program begins with a $40K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going six furlongs. I’m not loving the professional maiden types with Nyquist Frequency (#1) and Capital Connection (#3) at short odds here. There are several runners in this race moving up in class, so this race feels a bit below average for the condition. Speedstorm (#6) is the pick, making his first start off the layoff this afternoon for Ron Moquett. He debuted last year in a pretty nice maiden special weight race on the Florida Derby undercard at Gulfstream. Pin Oak Stud paid $400K for him and there’s no denying that they took a bath with this one. He finished 7th that day and has not been seen on track since. He was sold for a mere $10K at the Keeneland November Sale, which certainly is not a vote of confidence. However, this is not a great group and he’s been working well for his return. I’m willing to side with the new face in this spot. Historic (#5) has had some up and down form in his five career starts, but two of his bad efforts came on sealed tracks. While his last race was on a track labeled fast, the course was sealed and the conditions were rapidly deteriorating that day. His two true fast track efforts were much sharper. He makes a lot of sense in this race as well. On deeper tickets, I will back up with Capital Connection. He’s had many chances, but he is more consistent than Nyquist Frequency. His second place finish last out with $20K maiden claimers was pretty solid.
Race 2:
Fillies and mares will start the Early Pick-4 with this $32K N2L claiming race going one mile. Promisemeanempire (#3) was away from November to February and came back in a sprint at this level in her last start. She was moving well late to get into third, but her best races have come at two turns. That race seems like a starting point for her and Matt Shirer recognized that, claiming her for the same $32K that she’s back in for today. I think she’s a candidate to run a better race at a better price. Bamtwentyklater (#4) makes sense as the favorite in this spot. She was sharp in her last start at this level, finishing second by less than a length. When you draw a line through her two Churchill Downs efforts, she’s been very consistent. This feels like a good spot for Tom Amoss to get one of his last wins as a trainer before he hands over the day to day training to his assistant, Kinnon Larose. Super Costly (#8) makes her first start since September this afternoon for Rodolphe Brisset. I do trust him to have this Dialed In filly ready to run. However, I’m not completely convinced that she’s good enough to be 3-1 (ML) in this race. I see her as more of a backup.
Race 3:
There’s a lot of speed signed on for this $50K starter allowance race for fillies and mares. Baytown Butterfly (#4) should have every chance to run them down late in this spot. She had a two race winning streak snapped when finished 4th in the Oaklawn Anywhere Overnight Stakes last time out. Peter Miller’s horses have been live all meet long. He gave her a little extra time and she should be ready to roll. The backup for me in this spot is Moon Over Choctaw (#7). Assuming the speed horses all stay in for this race, she’s another runner that figures to be able to make up ground late. There have been some gaps in her running lines, but I do think she makes a lot of sense at decent odds here.
Race 4:
I think Tartaria (#6) makes a lot of sense in this beaten $12,500 claiming race for fillies and mares.She was claimed at this level two back where she just missed. Asmussen bumped her up to a starter allowance race where she fell back early and failed to mount a serious bid. She’s back with her friends at the right level and she fits nicely from a pace standpoint as well. Both Abibti (#8) and St. Alban’s Raid (#7) are runners that were claimed for a larger amount of money than the claiming tag they both are running for today. That’s always a cause for concern for me, unless I’m able to really rationalize the drop. Abibti has shown much more in her career, but she was flat in her last start. Peter Miller claimed her that day and while his numbers are respectable with first time claimers, his overall record at this meet speaks for itself. St, Alban’s Raid was claimed for $35K two back and she showed little in an open $30-$25K claiming race in her first start for her new connections. Her human connections have a lower profile, so the price will be higher on her. She’s making her third start off the layoff, so this class dropper should show what she still has left in her tank.
Race 5:
Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $40K maiden claimer. Ye Ole Joker (#5) makes her first start in three months for McLean Robertson. She was 5th at long odds in a good maiden allowance when making her first local start at the end of last year. She went a mile in that race, but I think she’s better suited for the one turn game. Her efforts in Minnesota at the beginning of her career were a big sharper and they’d play fairly well at this level today. The other one I want from this race is With Kindness (#4), who is breaking from the stall next door. She’s another one that has been routing in her last two starts. Her effort at this distance three back in Florida was very sharp though. She just missed in that maiden special weight race, finishing a desperate nose behind a next out winner. Her one turn form is simply better and she should have more stamina after those one mile races that she’s coming out of.
Race 6:
$16K N1Y claimers going six furlongs will start the Late Pick-4. Sir Sterling (#1) ran in $16K N2Y claiming company in his last start, but he just became eligible for this N1Y condition. He’s getting class relief after two dull efforts on this course. His effort three back was very sharp though and if you think that he can get back to those efforts, his 8-1 morning line number should feel juicy. I’m Wide Awake (#5) is clearly the one to beat. He’s definitely one that is better on a fast track and he should get that kind of course today. Top Gun Tommy was much the best last month, but he won’t have to deal with a horse like that in this race. He’s going to be the target here. Plausible Denile (#4) was only a length behind I’m Wide Awake in that same race last time out. Two of his three career wins have come on this oval, but he’s typically the kind of horse that comes close, but comes up a bit short. He’s had 14 other in the money finishes to go along with those three career wins. I like him more as a backup and an underneath play in this race.
Race 7:
State bred fillies and mares will go one mile in this allowance test. Lady Woopig (#7) makes a lot of sense in this spot for me. She’s been running in open N1X allowance company. There have been some excuses in some of those races, but at the end of the day, many of those ladies were just better horses. She was much more competitive in state bred company and while she’s still running for the same kind of purse, she’s getting class relief by moving back into the state bred ranks. Caliente Star (#2) is the morning line favorite and the logical backup for me. She’s stretching back out to two turns after finishing a pole behind Haulin Ice in the Downthedustryroad Breeders’ Stakes here last month. She finished in the money in stakes company in both of her one turn efforts in her career. She’s consistent, but she hasn’t taken a big step forward yet, making it tough for me to take too short of a price on her to win.
Race 8:
The featured N2L allowance race for fillies and mares looks like a good spot for Untamed Moment (#7) to rebound .She was pounded at the windows in a much tougher N1X allowance race here two weeks ago. She caught a sloppy course for her first two turn test and she was flat. She’s back on a fast course today and her pedigree suggests that she’ll be okay at two turns. I’ll chalk up that last race to the conditions and play her back at another short number today. Crimsonite (#6) is the backup for me in this spot. She’s making her second start off the layoff this afternoon for Team Asmussen. Her last three efforts have been a little dull, but this is a softer group and she does have a few efforts in her running lines that would be very competitive with these.
Race 9:
We’ll close out the week with a $32K-$28K maiden claiming sprint. I’ll try a price and make A Wild Pass (#1) the top pick in the nightcap. He’s making his second start off the layoff while adding blinkers for the first time. Both of these angles for Ray Ashford’s runners have proven to be lucrative. The rail and the rider are not great, but I do think there’s definite potential here. Kingscliff (#2) was claimed for $24K when making her last start last month. She did take a nice step forward in that race, so even though her new trainer, Kevin Martin, doesn’t have strong numbers first off the claim, there are still things to like. I’ll also use the morning line favorite Phantom Slayer (#5). His debut at Keeneland was sharp in October, but he fell apart in his last start at Churchill. He’s taking a significant drop in class for this race, which is discouraging for a horse that cost his connections $180K. While I don’t love that kind of move, the debut was good enough to compete with these.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 68/347 (19.6%, $523.80 $1.51 ROI)
