The Rebel has been pushed back a week on the calendar this year, so to avoid being oversaturated with the other Derby Points races, Oaklawn pushed this stellar card to Sunday,m where it is a standout program in the country. There are several competitive races with some very nice horses on this Rebel Day program. First post for this super-sized card will be set for 12:00 (CST).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6,8 | 5,4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1,3 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1,6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 6 | 3 | 3,10,6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 10,7 | DBL, PK3, PK6 | |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 3,8 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 7 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 10 | 9 | 9,11,8 | DBL, $3 PK3 | ||
| 11 | 2 | 2 | 6,7 | $5 DBL | |
| 12 | 10 | 10,4 | 7 |
Race 1:
Rebel day starts early and it begins with a $12,500 starter allowance race going nine furlongs. This race is carded for horses that have at least one start for a $12,500 claiming tag since the start of 2024, but the other qualifier here is that a horse cannot have won twice since August 1st. Gewurtztraminer (#3) and Bright Spark (#7) ran in a similar race to this on Southwest Day, with Bright Spark getting a narrow advantage to be second. Both horses ran a big race that day and they’re renewing their rivalry in this race. One important caveat is that the 2/6 race did not have the non-winners of two races clause that this race carries. The competition is not as strong and neither will have to deal with Money Run, who won that race and has four wins in that six month time span. I also think that race was much deeper than the 2/19 which Underdressed (#4) won and Drum Roll Please (#8) also ran in. Some other runners in this race are coming out of the 2/6 contest, but the two short prices were considerably better. These are the two I want in this race, but from a pace standpoint, I think Gewurtztraminer should have every opportunity to turn the tables on his foe. There is very little early speed signed up for this race, so I expect this Collected gelding to take the early advantage and settle into a nice gallop for Emmanuel Esquivel. He covered a lot of ground last time, so that should not be an issue today. Bright Spark is a talented horse in his third start off the layoff. Christian Torres gets the assignment for Kevin Martin once again. He has three wins in five tries on this course and has never finished out of the money here. This seven year old Arrogate gelding is very talented and this is the right level for him.
Race 2:
Older horses will dash six furlongs in a first level allowance race. Sharp Swinger (#4) and Nicholai (#5) are very similar runners that both want the early lead and both are fierce competitors that are going to battle all the way to the wire. Nicholai just missed at this level three back, and then came back to clear the first and second level state bred allowance conditions in his last two starts. He win over Touchdown Arkansas last time out looks even more impressive since that one came back to win the Nodouble Breeders’ Stakes here last weekend against two of the best Arkansas bred sprinters currently in training. Sharp Swinger was behind Vital Mind, who is a very good horse, at this level in his last start. He rebounded from a dull effort two back in the Silks Overnight Stakes where he was not permitted to have race day Lasix. Both of these horses are very logical, and I’d strongly upgrade the other if one would scratch. However, I’m keeping them on the B line here because if they’re both in, this race is likely going to be a duel from the jump and that could easily set the table for a closer. While I’m using Dual Monarchy (#8) on the A line, I do struggle to trust Kelsi Harr to outfinish a rider like Irad Ortiz who is riding Sharp Swinger. This one did get the better of Sharp Swinger last time when getting into second, and while he always shows up, his 0-13 record on this course is enough to make sure that the price on this one is better than his 3-1 morning line figure. I’ll roll the dice and make Dr. Storm (#6) the top pick. He’s a two turn horse cutting back to six furlongs for the first time, which does make me a little nervous. However, he has competitive speed figures at two turns and when he’s at his best, he’s flying home late. Cristian Torres needs to time a perfect ride and he definitely needs a speed duel to percolate early on, however at long odds here, I’d be willing to take that chance.
Race 3:
Four year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in a stakes quality optional $80K claiming/allowance race. Booth (#1) is the big name in here making his first start since July for Steve Asmussen. He was very good in the back half of the 24-25 meet, but he definitely needed a few races last year to get going. He won three stakes races at this distance on this course last season and has string of three straight Grade 3 wins in the spring. There’s other speed in this race, and I think he might need this one before he’s at his best. I loved Tejano Twist (#6) in the King Cotton Stakes last month and he came within ½ length of getting to Roll On Big Joe. While it would make sense to run in the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes in two weeks, I’m wondering if Hartman wants to give this gelding a confidence boost by entering him in this spot instead. He’s always been a little pace dependent, but having Booth in this race where I think he’s going to need to shake off the cobwebs, should ensure the right set up. Hartman also hands over the reins to Flavien Prat for the first time since he rode him to victory in the 2025 King Cotton Stakes. He came up just short for me last month, but I love him just as much in this spot.
Race 4:
Three year olds and up will sprint six furlongs in this N2L allowance race. The morning line favorite in this race is Senior Officer (#9), for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz. This five year old gelding son of Into Mischief is looking to reboot his career after two impressive races to start his career at Churchill. The thing is that those two races came in the fall of 2024 and he hasn’t been seen on the track since then. He’s been working out at Palm Meadows for Cox since the beginning of January. There is certainly a bit of a wild card aspect with him and I will include this closing sprinter as a saver on a few tickets, but I’m going to try to beat him for the most part in this race. Tre Italiani (#1) and Zero Sugar (#3)are the ones I want here, both of which are cutting back to sprints from two turns races. Larry Rivelli sends out Tre Italiani who always shows up, but he just has the one maiden score in six career tries to show for it. He’s been on the front end lately where he’s been caught late. I’d like to see Walter Rodriguez, who has ridden him in four of his six starts, try to secure a good stalking spot in this race because I do think Prime Power (#4) and Hymn (#6) are a bit quicker early on and I don’t really trust them in the final furlong. I’ll give him the narrow edge over Zero Sugar who is sprinting for the first time since facing Cornucopian on debut. He ran well enough to be second to that Baffert runner who freaked in that race. Since then, he’s been competitive in most of his two turn tries, but he was flat last time. I like the change of pace and I do think the two turn foundation for both of these runners could be beneficial in this race today.
Race 5:, The $135K Pig Trail Overnight Stakes:
A field of six are entered in the 1 ½ mile stakes race restricted to horses that have not won a stakes race in 2025 or 2026. This is a race that serves as a prep for the Temperance Hill Stakes at this distance later on in the meet. The morning line favorite is Catching Freedom (#4), who is still trying to regain his form from 2024 when he won the Louisiana Derby and was less than two lengths behind the winner in the Kentucky Derby.This will be his first time at this distance, and I think Cox is just trying to find something that this horse is going to do well right now. He has tried to set the tempo in a few of his recent starts, and while he ran well in those races, he didn’t pack enough punch to hold on late. I’m going to try to beat him in this spot. While I think Batten Down (#6), who is a close second choice, is a better proposition, I’m going to try Otello (#1) on top to pull off the upset. No one in this field has gone this distance before, so I’m thinking that even though Catching Freedom and Batten Down have early speed, I think Flavien Prat and John Velazquez might defer to Rafael Bejarano might defer to this longshot, and let him carve out the fractions. THat’s where he’s been the most dangerous in his career, and he has some solid efforts on the front end in 9 and 9.5 furlong races. He’s making his third start off the layoff and he’s coming off a huge effort to score in gate to wire fashion in a N2X allowance race in the slop here two weeks ago. He sired by Curlin out of an Eskenderya mare who was a graded stakes router on the turf. I think if he’s left alone, he could take them all the way. Batten Down is the other one I want to use here. He’s making his second start off a layoff today after returning to finish third in an allowance race at Gulfstream. After winning the Ohio Derby in 2024, he had no answer for Fierceness when he faced him in his next two starts. He came back to win a stakes race at Churchill that year going 9.5 furlongs. He has not won a race since so much like with the favorite, it feels like Mott is trying to find something that works with this beautifully bred son of Tapit and Close Hatches.
Race 6:
This six furlong sprint is the third Ratings Handicap race that Oaklawn has carded and the first two have produced some competitive fields. Both Ninja Warrior (#6) and Henro (#7) ran in the Ratings Handicap on 2/13, where Ninja Warrior nailed his rival on the wire. One thing to keep in mind is that particular race was for horses with 80-70 ratings and this contest is for horses with 85-75 ratings. While they were in the upper level last time, they move to the lower level (in terms of ratings) in this field. I still think Ninja Warrior is a good fit with this group and he almost always shows up when running her at Oaklawn. He’s going to be on my tickets, but I like two horses a little more. I’ll make El Prestigio (#3) the top pick for Steve Asmussen. He moved up in class and laid an egg in his last start when he was wide on a muddy and sealed course here. He was excellent when clearing the N1X allowance condition here two starts ago. He’ll get a rider upgrade today as Erik Asmussen will replace Johan Rosado. Run Classic (#10) is one of two stakes winners in this race making their first starts of 2026 for Ray Ashford. He went to Dubai in 2024 and went 0-7 over the 12+ months following that international experience. It is worth noting that he faced some strong fields in those last seven races and he did hit the board in six of those races. Ashford tabs Cristian Torres for his other runner, Wildatlanticstorm (#4) but Rafael Bejarano has done well for this barn in limited opportunities, so he’ll get the chance aboard him in this race.
Race 7:
The Classix Pick-6 wager will be bookended by a pair of state bred maiden special weight sprints for three year olds and up. The boys will go in this race and the girls will run in the nightcap. I think the state bred allowance races yesterday proved how difficult it can be for a three year old to beat old runners at this point in the season. There were two standout three year old fillies in both of those races and both fillies finished second to solid mares with significantly more foundation. While I don’t think either of these fillies will be spending much longer at the state bred first level allowance condition, a few more races under their belts could be crucial. Even though Whitley (#2) doesn’t have a ton of races, he’s been to the track twice in the span of a year. He came back after 11 months and ran well to third at this level when showing some early zip from the rail. He’s been working well and should have the physical edge over many of his younger counterparts in this race. Wolf Tooth (#10) is a three year old gelded son of Petrov (who also sired the top pick). He debuted against two year olds in December when going one mile. He went to the front and was game late, finishing second, beaten less than two lengths. He tried to compete two weeks ago, but he didn’t ship in from Texas after getting stuck on the AE list. He might need this race, but I think there’s more upside here with him than with many others here. I’ll also use Bossofmi (#7) on the B line. He finished better than the top pick last out while drawing the outside post. He ran well in his first local start and when facing state bred opposition for the first time, He’s worked well since, so there’s a reasonable chance that his last effort wasn’t a fluke. He still hasn’t been close to winning in any of races though, which is enough of a concern to not want to take too short of a number on him.
Race 8:
Maiden three year olds start the day in a maiden special weight sprint. This race seems like a race that we’re going to look back on as one of the stronger maiden races of the meet. Both Fancy Fairlane (#3) and Silver Syndicate (#6) ran strong races on debut, but I wonder if they’re going to be running for second with the Brad Cox first time starter, Munnings Challenge (#2). This colt is one of two runners that Novogratz Racing Stables owns in this race and the fact that Brad Cox is training him instead of McLean Robertson (who trained the dam), tells me that this barn has very high expectations for this colt. Irad Ortiz is on site today and he’ll ride him for the debut. The dam was a winner on debut and she loved racing at Oaklawn, winning three stakes here and finishing second in three others. Munnings is one of the better debut sires and sprint sires in the game right now. He’s been working well at the Fair Grounds so shipping him here where the purses are two times higher for maiden allowance races, feels like another vote of confidence. Fancy Fairlane came within a length and hal of Golden Tempo in his debut in New Orleans at the end of December. That colt came back to win the Lecomte and finish third in the Risen Star, so to get that close to him feels like a legitimate effort. He’s cross-entered in a race in New Orleans today where he’s a main track only runner. They were on the turf there yesterday and the forecast is dry today. Market Runner (#8) should be a little higher than his 5-1 odds, but there are some things to like. The dam was a stakes winning sprinter at two and her first two foals to race were stakes winning sprinters. I’ve been struggling to understand why his first three starts have come in two turn races. Perhaps it’s just because he isn’t that fast. However, he has respectable efforts and there should be a lively pace to set things up for a horse that could potentially be coming from off the pace. Jose Ortiz taking the mount feels like a plus.
Race 9, The Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes;
There are plenty of points on the table for three year old fillies for the Oaks, starting with this 1 1/16 mile contest. I don’t like the Baffert runner, Explora (#9) after her last start in the Las Virgenes. She’s been able to make the most of having some softer competition in this division. However, I just don’t think she’s at her best at two turns. Instead, I think Search Party (#6) is a big player. She handled her business two back when breaking her maiden, but she showed up and showed out, battling hard to score in the Martha Washington Stakes. She has paired her first two Beyers at this meet, so this feels like a good spot to improve. I think this Gun Runner filly is going to continue to be better for Norm Casse. Counting Stars (#7) is going to be the backup for me in this race. After winning her first two stakes race here this meet, she threw in a total dud last out. Mark Casse is also sending her back relatively quickly after that kind of effort. That tells me that he has some confidence in this one to be able to find his best form from earlier in the meet. She had a sharp workout last week which feels important since she missed her final tune-up for the Martha Washington Stakes due to the weather.
Race 10:
More three year olds will go in another maiden special weight contest, this one at 1 1/16 miles though. Baby Vino (#9) feels like a live longshot in this race. He’s making his third start off his career for Lindsay Schultz. He just missed on debut when going off at a whopping 30-1 number. He came back against a loaded field where he tried to chase the leaders and retreated. I think he’s bred to handle the two turn trip. Vino Rosso gets 17% winners with his runners routing for the first time. I like the progression of races and with the dull effort last out, I think the price will be right in a race where I’m struggling to trust the shorter prices. Both Rocky Raccoon (#8) and Dragones (#11) have two turn experience over this course and both could be sitting on a better effort. Dragones is a ¾ brother to the Grade 1 winning router, Leofric. He’s making his third start off the layoff today. He has some early foot, so he’ll need to work out a good trip from his wide draw. Rocky Raccoon got a little tired late when he finished third on debut against a solid group at this distance at the end of December. Johnny V. will take the mount for his second start where he’ll get Lasix for the first time.
Race 11, The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes:
I have a more detailed, horse by horse analysis of this race posted on the ITM Blog, and I’ve linked that article below. However, the quick and dirty analysis is that Litmus Test (#2) is the one to beat. He ships from California for Baffert while riding a strong pattern of improvement. Both Mark Casse runners are also live. I’ll give the slight edge to Strategic Risk (#6), who fits better from a pace standpoint. Silent Tactic (#7) was rolling late last time. He was a big winner in the Southwest and he’s also getting even better. I’ll have the full analysis linked below.
Race 12:
State bred fillies and mares will end the day is a maiden special weight going six furlongs. Bossa Dama (#10) debuted in a stakes race at Sam Houston restricted to certified Texas Stallions. She was bred in Arkansas though, also making her eligible for this spot. She’s making her second start for Steve Asmussen and clearly she has some ability, She could be coming late in this spot where I do think she’ll improve. Like a Diamond (#7) is a four year old who put up a big figure when finishing second in her second career try. I didn’t love seeing her debut for a $20K tag, so I was hesitant to back her at this level last time out. Sky High Angel (#4) needs to make up 7 ½ lengths on this filly from that race. She was making her first start since March, so there’s reason to believe that she could move forward while the shorter priced favorite could bounce off that bigger effort. If the post time odds stack up to the morning line figures, I’ll take my chances with Sky High Angel and backup with Like a Diamond.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 51/264 (19.3%, $391.00 $1.48 ROI)
