Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday 2/28/26 – By Eric Solomon

The Grade 3 Razorback Stakes is the featured race on this 11 race card. The winner of last year’s Risen Star Stakes, Magnitude, launches his four year old campaign in this $500K race, which serves as the next stop on the road to the 1.25 million dollar Oaklawn Handicap scheduled for April 18th. Post time today is scheduled for 12:20 (CDT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The Saturday card starts with a beaten $10K claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. While the condition in the DRF reads N3L, this race is also open to horses that have not won twice in the last eight months. Chasing Shadows (#3) is the pick for me in this race. She dropped to a $12,500 N2Y claiming level last out.  She was flat when going six furlongs that day. However, her last two races at two turns would be competitive at this level of competition. She was a winner three starts ago with beaten $10K claimers in Oklahoma and she has won on this oval before. Both What’s to Do (#1) and Legally Lucky (#1A) ran as a coupled entry two weeks ago and both mares ran up the track in that race on a muddy course.  What’s To Do seemed to want no part of the off track, but she has some fast track dirt form that would be competitive at this level. She is making her third start off the layoff and could be a candidate to move forward in this race. Boltoro (#7) was a winner in a beaten $10K claimer in her last start. That was a N3L or a N1Y race, so the condition for this race is a little tougher. While I’m not sure that the field she’s up against is any better, she is making her first start off the claim for a barn that is not great with these kinds of horses. She’s been fairly consistent of late, but there’s close to two months in between this race and her last. This could be a spot for a slight regression, which could open the door for a better priced horse.

Race 2:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in a true N2L claiming race where horses run with a $12,500 tag. I think Ante Up Tony (#4) is very logical in this race for Team Asmussen. She was claimed for $16K on a day where she broke her maiden here. She came back a month later and ran a solid second while she was caught very wide on the turn. Her only bad effort came against maiden special weight types at two turns, so this level feels very much within her scope. I think she’s just better than most of these. I’ll give Coldasice (#6) a little bit of a look in this race. I’ll want her at odds a little higher than her 6-1 morning line, but she seemed to revert back to her better form last time out after two abysmal efforts to start off her meet. She broke her maiden on this course and she figures to be part of the early pace here. Being on the lead was not a bad thing yesterday.

Race 3:

Three year olds will go 1 1/16 miles in a maiden optional claiming race which starts the second of four Pick-5 wagers today. If horses weren’t sold or RNA for $75K or less, they’’ll have the chance to run with a $75K claiming tag. This is a fairly competitive race, but the horse coming out of the best races is Ace Jack Deuce (#5). He made three starts in open maiden allowance company at Gulfstream for Ken McPeek before shipping to New Orleans after his last start. All three efforts have been solid, but not great, so the drop in class feels warranted. It’s also fair to point out that he is getting class relief, but he’s essentially running for the same purse money that he was running for in Florida. He was purchased for $70K, so he’s eligible to run with a tag. I think he’s the one to beat. Razor Tap (#2) ran a big race at long odds last out when facing $75K maiden claimers here. Ramon Vazquez has been red hot lately, but he’s not riding here today, so Serafin Carmona will get the chance. He figures to be the pacesetter in a race with very little early pace presence. Race Ready (#3) ran well at this level in his last start at the end of December. He had an  outside draw in that race, but he’s drawn closer to the rail and in the stall just outside of the primary speed threat. Cristian Torres rides this son of More Than Ready who has been gelded since his last start.

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go one mile in an optional $50K claiming/N3L allowance race. This race is Round 3 between First Division (#3) and Super Cruise (#5) at this meet. First Division got the upper hand on his rival in N1X allowance company on Opening Day. Since then, he has had two starts and two narrow misses in overnight stakes races. Super Cruise cleared the N1X condition two back and then he led every step of the way before being nailed on the wire by Mackman in the General McArthur Overnight Stakes three weeks ago. Even though Super Cruise set the tempo in that race, that really hasn’t been his game. He came from off the pace in his first four starts, winning twice and coming up a length short the other two times. First Division was rolling late last out, but had to overcome some traffic, which likely prevented him from getting home. I don’t think there’s much separating these runners right now, and there should be an honest pace in front of them. I think that with fair trips, they will be battling to the end. I’ll give the slightest edge to First Division, who might be a little bit of a better price. Authentic Strike (#4) has been working up a storm for his first start in over 16 months. She showed a lot of potential at two when clearing the first level allowance condition at Keeneland by 10 lengths. This a tough spot to return in, and I feel like this is a race that will set him up for an allowance race at Keeneland in a little over a month. 

Race 5: 

Another Pick-5 begins with this $25K N1Y claiming race going six furlongs. There’s a lot of speed in the middle of the gate in this race with Top Gun Tommy (#4), Suncroft (#5), and Big Effect (#6). I don’t really trust any of these runners, so I’m thinking a horse like Plausible Denile (#1) should have every opportunity to run this trio down, especially if all three are participating. This is a horse that finishes second and third a lot more than he wins, however, this kind of race has been his secret winning recipe when the opportunity presents itself. He was third with $30K N1X claimers last out when he was a voided claim. That tells me he ran pretty well despite not likely being quite 100%. He gets a little class relief here on a course where he usually runs well. There are several that feel like they need a form reversal here and I’m not sure where that’s coming from. Big Effect would be the backup. He’s a little bit of wild card, and while I don’t love the claim and drop game that Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez plays, it’s part of the End Zone Athletics Playbook. There is a reason the numbers are so strong first off the claim. He’s three races removed from earning a 100 Beyer, so his best is way better than what this field has to offer. If either Top Gun Tommy or Suncroft doesn’t go, I’d upgrade him to the B line or higher, but as is, I’m wagering on the pace falling apart. 

Race 6:

Beaten $10K claimers will go one mile here. Horses could qualify under the N3L condition on the N1Y condition to run here. This is another race where there feels like there’s a good amount of early speed. Solevo (#7) makes sense in this spot, especially since he has two wins in his last five starts. It’s been a while since some of the runners in this race have found themselves in the Winner’s Circle. I thought he would have run better in his last start, but they went quick early and he was well off the pace. I  think he’ll be in a better striking position. The distance is a little bit of a wild card for him, but I think he can handle it. Metatron’s Muse (#13) is worthy of using if he does find his way in this race off the AE list. He does have a shot since the Fair Grounds, Dick Best (#4) is cross-entered in a race there this afternoon. He’s been knocking on the door in better races where the early pace has been soft. I don’t think that’s going to be the case here. Big Commerce (#2) cuts back from  nine furlongs in his last start on a sloppy and sealed course here. He’s another one that has faced tougher company lately, so the class relief should help his cause. He had to navigate a bad post the last time he ran here at this distance. I think he’s drawn well for the race he wants to run.

Race 7: 

The final Pick-5 of the day starts with a beaten $20K-$16K claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. Non-winners of three or horses that have not won since October 28th are eligible for this race. Hero’s Medal (#1) is the top pick for me in this race. He’s making his third start off a layoff and his second start off the Cameron Milligan claim. He just missed here two starts ago when he was claimed for $12,500. He bumped up to a $24K N3L claiming race where he ran an okay race. I see him as a horse that could be due to move forward at this level .He gets a bit of class relief but is still running for a tag that is higher than what he was claimed for. Pappy’s Revenge (#4)and Slip Mahoney (#7) are coming out of the same open $35K-$30K claiming race where they finished reasonably close to each other. Pappy’s Revenge was ½ length behind, but he gets a better post today. Slip Mahoney was also marooned in a tough post that day. Padron-Barcenas is riding Slip Mahoney back after getting him home 5th last out. He’s still in search of his first riding win  at this meet. Serafin Carmona gets the return call aboard Pappy’s Revenge and I trust that one a little more at the moment. 

Race 8: 

The Late Pick-4 will be bookended by a pair of state bred optional $25K claiming/N1X allowance races for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There’s a pair of standout three year old fillies in both races, although Walk Away Kaye (#7) feels more obvious in this race. She has three sharp starts under her belt, all of which have come against open competition. She broke her maiden at Remington and her second place finish in the Astral Spa Overnight Stakes looked very good considering that the winner, Counting Stars, came right back to crush her competition in the Years End Stakes. She ran well to finish 4th in the Mockingbird Stakes last month, but now she’s able to drop in class and face fellow Arkansas breds for the first time. She gets a rider upgrade for this race and on paper, her biggest threat is much better at two turns. This feels like a smart spot for her to notch her second victory. One Way or Another (#2) is the backup for me in this spot. She’s making her second start off the layoff after facing open allowance company in her first start since August. She ran some of her best races during her six year old campaign when racing at Prairie Meadows last summer. She was in over her head last time, but this is a more reasonable spot. 

Race 9: 

This optional $150K claiming/N1X allowance race feels like a last chance for some of these horses to try to position themselves to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. They’re going to need to accumulate points quickly, but a strong effort here will likely springboard somebody into one of the final Derby Prep races where the first and second place finishers are all but guaranteed to make it into the body of the field. I’m curious to see what the decision will be for Swift Blade (#8). He’s a Juddmonte homebred trained by Brad Cox who struggled on debut in a dirt race at Churchill. He drew a tricky post and did not have a great journey that day. He shipped to the Fair Grounds and ran very well on the turf in his second try. He’s cross-entered in the Black Gold Stakes on the turf at the Fair Grounds this afternoon. Cox and Juddmonte entered two horses in that race, so it’s conceivable that this colt will ship in for this race. His grand-dam was Close Hatches, so getting two turns on the dirt shouldn’t be an issue. If he doesn’t go, I think this race gets a lot more wide open. Fifty Four Yarder (#4) starting off at 15-1 while Our Magical Moon (#5) is 3-1 on the morning line, feels wild to me. These horses met at this level last out and while Our Magical Moon was better, it was only by a half length. He’s had several chances to improve, but the big efforts haven’t been there. On the other hand Fifty Four Yarder paired his first two Beyer Figures and now makes his third career start and his second at two turns. I think he can easily make up that ground on his shorter priced rival. Exosome (#7) is a little interesting in this spot as well. He was closing late to get up for 6th in the Lecomte two starts ago. He came back at this level on the Tapeta at Turfway and was not great. Kelsey Danner brings him back to the traditional dirt and adds blinkers for the first time. He could be a candidate to step up in this spot as well. 

Race 10, The Grade 3 Razorback Handicap:

Both Magnitude (#5) and Sandman (#7) are the headline grabbers in this 1 1/16 mile handicap for older horses. They’ll be tested by a pair of new faces, Tap Into This (#1) and Nu What’s New (#4), as these are the principal runners in this seven horse contest. Nu What’s New and Magnitude are both front-runners and they’ll likely also have Woodcourt (#2) to potentially force the issue. While Magnitude showed he was comfortable pressing the pace when he beat older foes in the Clark Stakes in November. I’m concerned that he might be a little amped up in his first start of the year. While Nu What’s New doesn’t necessarily need to make the lead, he’s been sensational when carving out the fractions in his last two starts, posting triple digit Beyer Figures while crushing maiden and first level allowance fields in his first two starts at this meet. I think Sandman is going to have every chance to run this field down. He was a little more aggressive in his first start off the layoff. He had some run, but was in a tight spot while finishing 5th. I think he needed that race, and Casse knew it, otherwise I think he would’ve just come back in a stakes race. He likes this course and should appreciate having a strong pace in front of him. I’m not sure we’re going to get 5-1 (ML), but I do think he should be the third or fourth choice in the wagering. As long as that is the case, I’m good to go with him. Magnitude is a serious racehorse, and he proved that his Risen Star effort was not a fluke. He’s going to get a shot at trying to beat Sovereignty again. Clearly it wasn’t his day in the Travers last year when he was swallowed up by the champ. Asmussen does a great job of developing horses, and he campaigned Gun Runner to a brilliant four year old season after showing sparks as a three year old. While he could be vulnerable in this spot, I respect his class and talent and I do believe he’s going to be a serious player in this division this season. I’ll side against Nu What’s New in this spot. He’s going to have to prove he can be as effective without Lasix while also getting a significant bump in class. The fact that he won his last two starts by a combined 20 lengths and he put up the figures that he did, should keep his price point lower than what it probably should be for a horse that is taking this type of jump in class. He’s an exciting prospect that I’ll be cheering for as a fan, but as a handicapper, I don’t want him a low odds here. 

Race 11:

State bred fillies and mares will close out the card with the second division of an optional $25K claiming/N1X allowance sprint. The word was out that Cuda Cutie (#9) has some talent when she made her debut in an open maiden allowance at Horseshoe Indy back in August. Not too many Arkansas breds are sold for $180K, especially when considering the stud for her sire, Aurelius Maximus, is only $4K. She was bet down to the 6-5 favorite in that race and she ran just the way you’d want a short price to run. She took a big step up in class when trying the Presque Isle Debutante on the Tapeta Course in Erie. She made a bit of a wide bid, but flattened out while never really getting going. She’s been sidelined since then but ripped off a 45:2 bullet work at her Louisiana base in preparation for this start. She’s getting class relief despite facing older Arky breds. There’s no way she’s going off at 10-1 in this race, but she is the one to beat. J J ‘s True Bet (#1) is the backup here. She was solid on New Year’s Day when breaking his maiden at this six furlong distance. She tried higher priced N2L claimers when going one mile last out, but I don’t think she was ready to go that far just yet. Her pedigree leans to one turn, so the cutback in distance should be beneficial here. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 50/253 (19.8%, $378.00 $1.50 ROI)