There’s a short turnaround for the new week of racing at Oaklawn. There’s nine races today with a featured allowance in the 8th race. Today looks like the nicest day of the week in Hot Springs, as afternoon high temperatures could get close to 80 degrees. First post is set for 12:30 (CST).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2,9 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 3,9 | 4 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 8 | 8,3 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | DBL, PK3,PK6 | |
| 5 | 4 | 4,5,9 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | ||
| 6 | 5 | 5,8 | 9 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 4 | 4 | 5,6 | DBL, $3 PK3 | |
| 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 | $5 DBL | |
| 9 | 8 | 8,5 | 2 |
Race 1:
We’ll light the lamp with a $40K maiden claiming race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. Bossoftheblock (#9) is going to be a popular choice at the windows after a strong debut effort with $50K state bred maiden claimers here last month. That was a wild race in general after a horse tossed the rider at the break and then advanced through the field before drifting to the other side of the track on the turn. Meanwhile, this filly came with an eye-catching run on the outside to take the lead, but she idled late as she was caught and finished a close third. She’s going to be a short price in this race and her last race was too visually impressive for me to leave her off my tickets. However, she is a three year old taking on older horses early on in the season. We also see many horses at this level run big races, but then they’re not able to back them up. Keeping that in mind, I’m going to take Moneta (#2) as the top pick. She was the second choice in a state bred maiden special weight last month where she made her first start since her debut back in May. She caught a sloppy course when debuting at the end of the 24-25 meet and she chased the leader and finished second that afternoon. She had a few issues in her last start, as she was pinched back shortly after the start and then had to steady as they worked their way on to the turn. She threw in the towel at that point, as she finished well-beaten 6th when facing a few nice foes. She gets class relief and she finds herself in a race where there is very little early speed on paper. If she can get out of the gate without an issue, I see her as a candidate to wire this field.
Race 2:
$10K claimers who have not won twice in the last six months, will go six furlongs here. Premium (#3) did have back to back wins in November and December, but since those races came with $5K claimers, he remains eligible for this $10K N2Y condition here at Oaklawn. I do respect those efforts and I can be willing to overlook his last start to make him the top pick in this race. His 7th place finish at the end of the December snapped a streak of eight consecutive in the money finishes, three of which were wins. Early speed is the name of his game, and while he might have competition for the lead, he should be able to secure his spot on the lead, while getting to the rail. He was unable to get the lead last out when facing a stronger group in starter allowance company in New Orleans. The class relief should serve him well. Cape Trafalgar (#9) is the morning line favorite after scoring in a beaten $10K claiming race in his local debut. This is a deeper field for this gelding who has had trouble staying sound of late. He was really good in 2024 and while it feels unlikely he can replicate those races again, I do think he can improve slightly off his last start. On deeper tickets, I’m wondering if the drop in class for Ceepeegee (#4) will be a cure for what ails this Army Mule gelding. He was sharp in his four races on this course last season, winning his final two starts here. He cleared the first level allowance condition in his first start off the Dan Ward claim back in May. He’s made five starts since that race and four of them were not very good. He’s faced tougher fields in all five of those starts and this will be his third start after a brief layoff. He’s a better fit at this level.
Race 3:
Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this maiden special weight test. I think Circle Me (#8) is an interesting proposition from the outside stall. He ran 4th in his debut when he was completely dismissed in a maiden special weight race at Keeneland. That was not a bad field that day and he certainly outran his odds, going off at 93-1. He was dismissed once again when drawing the rail in a 12 horse race at Churchill in his second career try. He bobbled and tossed the rider at the start, quickly ending his afternoon. His last effort came on the synthetic at Turfway where he raced in midpack the whole way. While he’s racing for a similar purse here, I don’t think he’s facing that strong of a field for this condition at Oaklawn. I think he’s a sneaky contender to run better in this spot. I think Hovland (#3) is an interesting first time starter in this race. He makes his debut for Christopher Davis, who doesn’t have a ton of horses stabled here. This colt is one of them though, and the horses that he has started here have done fairly well. The AM drills on this course have been solid and his sire, Connect, gets 10% winners with his debuting runners in dirt sprints. While I don’t love the price, I think Violence in Red (#2) makes sense as a horse to consider in this race as well. He debuted in a wide open race at this level last month when a different Christopher Davis trained horse (Reclamation) took the field gate to wire. He flashed some early speed from the outside post, but was struggling to keep up with the winner in a race where he was sent off as the lukewarm 7-2 favorite. He was a little rank in the stretch, and he was forced to check hard in the final 1/16, which likely caused his final figure to be a little lower than what it should have been. He makes sense as a horse to improve in this race.
Race 4:
Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming race. As per usual, horses bred in Arkansas will run with a $20K claiming tag. Arky Road (#2) is the top pick for me in this race. He ran at this level 11 days ago and finished 5th, about a half length behind Joewilly (#9), who is also coming back on a relatively quick turnaround. This Enticed gelding was making his second start off the layoff and he took a big step forward from his first start back. While there are a few suspect class droppers in here, I don’t think this field is a deep as the last group he saw. I think he can easily make up that ground on Joewilly, who is a horse that typically runs the same race every time.I don’t like that one to win, but he’s a horse that makes sense to use underneath in the verticals. Irish Guard (#5) finished in between those runners in 4th in that same race. He was making his first career start that day, and I thought he was a horse that deserved a look there. He showed some speed before backing out of the picture. He’s a three year old taking on older horses here, but the more experience he gets, the less that will matter.
Race 5:
The race that ends the Early Pick-5 and begins the Late Pick-5 is this $10K starter allowance contest for older runners going one mile. The morning line favorite here is Drum Roll Please (#1), who returns to the states for the first time since April. As a two year old, his future was extremely bright. He was second to Locked in his debut before breaking his maiden at the Big A. He was third behind Dornoch and Sierra Leone in the Remsen before winning the Jerome in early 2024. An injury derailed his career and he’s never come close to being the same horse. He was based at Woodbine before coming here, but it’s not like he was facing great competition there. Even if he’s not favored at post time, he’s tough for me to get behind here. Speightster Red (#4) is an eight year old gelding making his second local start. Dan Ward claimed him at Parx two back for $15K. The first part of his 2025 campaign was excellent, but he went off form in the second part of the season. He ran 5th at this level when making his first career start at Oaklawn, but overall, that felt like an effort he could build off of for his new connections. He was shuffled back a bit, but he does his best work when he’s a little closer to the front end. Sound of Victory (#5) is another live longshot in this race. He was sharp in his last two races of the meet at Remington when facing N1X allowance company. Ike Green claimed him for $12,500 two back when he was 4th in a beaten claiming race. He was trying to close on the outer part of the track at a time when that was not the best place to be, so I can be a little forgiving of that effort. He was in way over his head in his last start when he went off at 202-1 in a N1X allowance where Nu What’s New absolutely humbled that field. He had no business competing at that level on this circuit, and he ran into one of the hottest horses on the grounds in that race. This is serious class relief and I see him as a candidate to rebound. Hess (#9) drew the outside post for his third start of the meet. He struggled in his last start where he was entered in a six furlong state bred allowance race. He’s clearly a better two turn horse, and while this race feels a little short for his liking, I do think we’ll see a much more competitive version of himself in this race.
Race 6:
Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in a maiden optional claiming race. Eight of the nine fillies qualified to run without the tag by being sold for $75K or less at their latest auction. Sissy Sox (#4) is the only runner that is in for the $75K claiming tag in this race. I’ll try another price here, and going with Blondie’sincharge (#5) debuting for Lindsay Schultz. The dam was a debut winner and the three horses that she foaled that made it to the races have all won races. Global Campaign gets 12% debut winners in dirt sprints for a barn that is capable of scoring with newcomers. The works are solid enough to believe that she could pull this one out. Army’s Marauder (#8) debuted at this level and ran a distant second, losing to a runaway winner that afternoon. The third place finisher of that race came back to win when facing similar foes at the Fair Grounds last month. Cristian Torres retains the mount for Christopher Davis, who has another live runner on this card. Mighty Nora (#9) was sent off at 7-2 in her last start when competing in an auction maiden allowance at Churchill. She clipped heels and lost the rider that afternoon and she’s been sidelined since. He comes back in a comparable race after some respectable AM workouts for Dallas Stewart.
Race 7:
Three year olds and up will go 1 1/16 miles in this $35K maiden claimer. There are several competitors that are coming off uncharacteristically bad efforts in their last starts, and one of them is Empire Ranch (#4). He was roughed up at the start and never was able to get going in his last start when facing $100K maiden claimers at Churchill. He was sidelined for three months after that race, so something seemed to be amiss. His effort two back with $50K maiden claimers in Louisville when going a one turn mile was much stronger. While he’s never tried it on race day, I don’t anticipate the two turn trip to be a bother for him. Magical Wish (#5) has lost all three career starts by double digit lengths, and while class relief feels necessary, I do think it’s fair to point out that he faced some very salty foes in his three maiden allowance tries. Gunmetal beat him on debut, and he’s now Grade 2 placed. Hypnus beat him in start number and that one is multiple stakes placed now. Most recently, he lost to Nu What’s New, who followed up his tremendous maiden score with a bigger and better win in allowance company. There’s no one on paper in this race that feels like they’re in the same stratosphere as any of those three. He’ll still need to improve, but he’s getting about as much class relief as a horse can get. Backside (#6) didn’t show much when debuting in a $100K maiden claiming at Churchill this past fall. The top two finishers in that race proved they had some quality. He’s sired by Union Rags out of a Tiznow mare, so I’d guess that two turns will be where he’ll have the most success. While it hasn’t been a great meet for Brad Cox, his barn has slowly started to heat up this month.
Race 8:
The featured race on the card is a N1X allowance test for older horses sprinting six furlongs. I like Ripped (#6) a decent amount in this spot. He was a $650K purchase that was looking like a total bust. It feels like he’s turned a corner in his last few starts. He ran a solid race at Keeneland and then he broke his maiden at Churchill three back in November. His lone start at this distance was a disaster, but there were some excuses in that race at Louisville. He looked no worse for wear when shipping back here and scoring handily in a $75K N2L claiming race. I think there could be a solid pace battle developing in front of him, so I’m looking for Keith Asmussen to have him sit in midpack and make a run at the leaders in the final furlong. The Louisiana bred , Classic Time (#8) with Luis Saez in the irons, ships here for his second start of the year. He missed time after taking the worst of a three horse photo in the Crescent City Derby early in 2025. His return effort was sharp, but I do think this is a tougher spot for his next act. He’s the backup for me as I think he’s going to be looking to work out a similar trip as the top pick.
Race 9:
$32K N2L claimers going 1 1/16 miles will close out this Thursday program. Tyler’s Turn (#8) for Ken McPeek is the play in this race for me. After a few uninspiring races early on in his career, he came back with a pair of strong efforts at Keeneland and Churchill. He broke his maiden with $20K maidens in Lexington and he ran a credible effort with starter allowance types in Louisville. Either of those efforts would likely be good enough to score with this group. He’s going to have to prove that he can get two turns and he’ll also need to rebound after a dull effort on synthetic at Turfway in his most recent try. Bourbon Society (#5) is the morning line favorite and also a logical horse to use in this spot. He was flat when facing N1X types at Churchill in his last start., He was sharper two back at that level in Indiana though. It took him a while to break his maiden, but I do think he’s a better horse now. This feels like the right level for a barn that excels with horses off this type of layoff. A deeper tickets longshot to consider is Weaponized (#2). His 30-1 morning line figure seems comically high. While I’m definitely interested in him at that number, I think it’s more reasonable to expect him to go into the gate at odds about half of that figure. His last dirt effort at Churchill wasn’t bad. He covered too much ground when drawing wide in his last start on the dirt at two turns when facing a better group at Keeneland. He had miserable posts for both of his last two starts on synthetic at Turfway, so this feels like a spot where he can sit a more comfortable trip.
2025-26 Meet Statistics
Top Pick Winners: 42/206 (20.4%, $326.20 $1.58 ROI)
