Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Sunday, 2/15/26 – By Eric Solomon

For the first time all meeting long, there’s no stakes race to anchor a card at Oaklawn. That being said, there’s still a few sharp allowance races featured on this nine race card. The course will likely still have some moisture in it after receiving a good amount of rain yesterday. However, I imagine it’ll be drying up as the day goes on. First post is set for 12:30 (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

There are eight betting interests, but 10 runners set to go 1 1/16 miles in this beaten $12,500 claiming race for fillies and mares. This looks like a good spot for Mo Sense (#3), making her second start off the layoff for William Martin. She came back in a starter allowance race and was wide throughout when she finished a respectable 5th. She drops in class for her second try back. She can handle on off-track if that’s the hand that’s dealt today. This could be a spot for her to move forward. I don’t love the deep drop for My Bossy Lady (#4), but she could be the lone speed while stretching back out to two turns for John Ortiz. This barn had a winner here yesterday, so things could be turning around after a slow start. This filly was never involved when facing better in her return to the races at the end of December. She was a winner in her only start at this distance. Ole Silver (#6) is the morning line favorite, shipping here from Southern California. She dominated an $8K claiming field in her last start in September at Santa Anita but she’s been on the sidelines since. She’s a nine year old that has had several stops and starts in her career, only getting to the track 23 times during that span. Her best days are likely behind her, but if she handles the course, she should be in the mix. I’d be much more comfortable using her if her odds floated up from her 9-5 morning line though. 

Race 2: 

One of these days, Publisher (#5) will find the right spot for him to break his maiden. However, his lack of early speed makes it hard sometimes, which was the case when he ran into Nu What’s New at this level in his last start. That horse came back to score in first level allowance company, putting up another big figure when he last raced. He had a major tactical advantage over Publisher when the hooked up here in December and now I fear that Mingo (#1) creates that same problem for him. Mingo ships in from the Fair Grounds after two respectable races to start his career. He ran a solid second place in maiden allowance company there when going a mile in his last start. If the course is still wet in the morning, I feel that only helps his cause since Publisher has not been at his best when the track has come up wet for him in the past. At least if Publisher loses to Mingo, Steve Asmussen will still get the win since he is the trainer for both runners. Publisher is still a horse to be respected. He was second in the Arkansas Derby last year, but he likes to come from off the pace. In addition, he’s more of a plodder as opposed to a closer that has a devastating late kick, so that also makes things difficult for him. He’s gone off a sub-even money in his last two starts, and I can’t play him at that number. He’s more of a deeper saver in the win spot for me. 

Race 3:

$12,500 maiden claimers will go 1 1/16 miles here. As per usual, Arkansas breds will run with a $20K tag. Somebody has to win this race and I think Expensive Game (#5) might have the best shot. He ran at Will Rogers Downs in maiden special weight company during the January break here, but that effort was not his best. The top two runners were well clear that day and there was a chasm between him and the 4th place finishers. He was competitive in two lower level maiden claiming races at Remington though and stretching back out to two turns suits him better than some of the others here. Jute Box (#6) drops in class for his first start in a little over a year. He was going in the right direction before being sidelined. He was second in maiden allowance company in his last two tries at Sam Houston. He might need this race as it’s not easy to go two turns off such a long layoff. However, this is not a great field for this condition, so he might not have to be at his best yet. Lower Broadway (#9) has struggled in his first two starts at this meet when going six furlongs. He’s making his third start of this form cycle and trying two turns on the dirt for the first time in his career. He’s more consistent than many of the others here, but the distance and the post are question marks. His 8-1 morning line feels reasonably fair though. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in a $12,500-$10,000 N3L claiming contest. There could be a decent pace in this race, which could set the table for a horse like C.C. Harbor (#8). She missed the break and spotted the field several lengths in her first start off the layoff last time out. She advanced with a decent run to get into 5th, signaling to me that this is probably the right level of competition for her at this point. She was plodding to hit the board with better here last season, so at this level, I can see her moving forward today. Esperanza’s Spirit (#12) gets the worst of the draw here, there’s three horses in the outer part of the gate who could be making a play for the lead, which could make things easier for her to tuck into a spot where she won’t have to concede too much ground. She’s fairly consistent, so her floor is higher than most here. The class relief will also be welcome as her barn looks for their first winner and in the money finisher of this meet. Payton’s Beauty (#6) may be quick enough to secure the early lead here. She’s posted inside of the other serious speed threats and she proved when going two turns in Minnesota this summer that those tactics are how she likes to win races. Moenchanted (#7), who is starting directly to her outside, is also going to want to go, so these ladies might make things difficult for each other. If one defects, I’d consider the other, but I think Payton’s Beauty  has a little more upside in this spot. 

Race 5: 

We’ll hit the halfway point in the Sunday card with a time restricted $8K claiming race going six furlongs. 14 are entered in this race, but only a maximum of 12 will compete. This race starts with the old pro, Jackman (#4). He’s an eight year old gelding that loves winning races. He’s found the Winner’s Circle 16 times in 56 career starts, 9 of which have come on this oval. In addition, a total of 17 of his 22 races at Oaklawn have been in the money finishes. He went off form at Remington this fall, losing all four starts there. However, he dropped in class and was right back at home here in Hot Springs, easily beating a beaten $10K claiming group on Opening Weekend. He clearly is not the same horse he used to be, but racing at this level should allow him to continue to be competitive. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez has great numbers with runners first off the claim. In his career, he wins 30% of the times with horses he’s running back first off the claim. He’s 6-17 with horses that were claimed and then were away for 61-180 days before running back, scoring with one of those horses here (Personal Jet) last weekend. He has won 42% of his races at Oaklawn with the horses that he runs back first off the claim, including a total of three at this meet. This is important to note, because the racing at Oaklawn is much stronger than the other tracks that he trains at on a regular basis. This tells me that he’s not just accumulating stats by cherry picking the easiest spots for these horses, especially when he’s training for End Zone Athletics (who is not the owner for this gelding). There’s a lot to like here, however, I’m going to assume that one thing not to like is going to be the price. He’s starting at 7-5, while facing a full field, and I suspect that he’s going to go off at a shorter price than this. There are other competitive horses in this race, and as a result, you should get a decent number if you like them. From a multi-race perspective, I think there are some races in the Early Pick-5 where you’d want more coverage, but I think if you were looking to spread more in this race, the Late Pick-5 would give you that opportunity. He’s the top pick and the lone A line play, but there are horses that I’ll use as backups here. Kim Puhl is an Ohio based trainer that wins a lot of races at Thistledown. Belterra, and Mahoning Valley, but her numbers have fallen off the cliff with the runners that she has brought to Oaklawn in the past few seasons. I do think we’re going to start seeing trainers like her pick up the pace over the next few weeks because with the added racing days, there are going to be more opportunities for horses and a variety of different claiming conditions for some of the lower level horses on the grounds. Midnight Majesty (#2) is a horse that strictly competes in allowance type races in Ohio. He cleared the N4L condition at Thistledown in August and he was running competitive races in allowance races there before coming here in December. He was well beaten in a strong $30K-$25K claiming race at the beginning of the meet. He went off at 43-1 in that race, so it’s clear to see that even though he was in good form. This is a drop in class for a horse that was running consistent races against some of the stronger day-to-day horses in Ohio. I think he’s playable at this level. Shake Up (#6) is a longer priced option in this race, and I do think he’s a candidate to improve after a dull effort in his first start of the meet. He faced a sharp field of state bred N1X types, where the winner was Nicholai, a horse that came back with a big effort to score again here last weekend. He didn’t have it that day, but he’s the type that needs to be involved in the early stages of a race to be at his best. He scratched out of a race yesterday where he was stuck on the AE list, but I actually like the fit here better. He’s getting class relief and he has races on the dirt that would be competitive with this group.

Race 6: 

There’s another full field for this $20K N2Y claiming race, which will also be contested at six furlongs. Horses that have not won two races since September 15th, 2025 are eligible for this race. I’m interesting to see what kind of effort we’re going to get from One True Shance (#9). He was very sharp at the Fair Grounds last winter, winning two races impressively before going to the sidelines. He was bad at Keeneland, but that was a strong N2X allowance race. He bottomed out in the mud two starts back at Churchill. Jordan Blair claimed him and brought him back in an open $16K-$14K claiming race at Turfway, where he ran a more competitive effort. That race suggests to me that he could be trending in the right direction while getting back on the dirt today. I Got No Munny (#1) literally became eligible for this condition today. He was a winner at a similar level at Prairie Meadows on 9/15 and then he came back to score in open $20K claiming company at Keeneland. Tracy Tanner trained him when he score at Prairie. He was claimed out of that race, but Tanner jumped back in to re-claim him at Keeneland. He was away for three months and came back with a dull effort at the Fair Grounds last month when showing little against beaten $30K claimers. He was competitive on this course and the fact that he flashed some early speed before fading last out, tells me that he should be more competitive in this start. Vale (#6) ran twice here in December against tougher fields and then went to Will Rogers Downs where he was an easy allowance winner. He’s in good form right now and I think this a reasonable level for him while returning to a sharper circuit. He’s a worthy favorite in a contentious race, but I don’t want to take too short of a price here, especially if there are juicier options on the board.

Race 7:

A half dozen fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance spot. I’m going to take a swing with Jenkin (#4) on top in this race, in hopes that she can find her best form in her third start off the layoff today. I’m not sure what condition the track will be in by the 7th race today, but if the drying out process is on the slow side, that should only bolster her chances. She won the Years End Stakes here last season on the heels of an opening day maiden allowance victory. She’s been flat in her last five tries though. She’s had a few excuses in those races and I think getting back here could be beneficial to her. I think she could be sneaky here. There is no real speed signed on for this race, so I wonder if Ramon Vazquez aboard Aledean (#1)  is going to try to keep the favorite, Zaghruta (#2) from setting the pace. She has the pole position while coming here after winning in her first start in 10 months while racing at Delta. She remains eligible for this condition here because of the purse structure there. I’ll back up with the favorite, because I do think there’s a chance that Zaghruta could go fast enough early to lock down the lead and then try to slow the pace down in the second quarter. She ran a big race here last out when clearing the N1X condition, but she needs to prove that she can run two big races in a row. 

Race 8: 

The co-featured allowance is for older horses that have never won three races, traveling six furlongs. Eight are entered in this race, but on paper, this is a very good showdown between the top three runners. Note that Tough Catch (#4) was cross-entered in a race at the Fair Grounds yesterday, but he defected from that race, presumably in favor of this spot. He’s the second choice and the morning line favorite is El Prestigio (#5) for Steve Asmussen. These two runners are both four year olds that have started to put things together of late. El Prestigio was second in four of his first six starts before breaking his maiden impressively at Keeneland this fall in his 7th career try. He came back to run a decent 4th in allowance company at Churchill and then he blew the top off a good N1X field here in his latest effort, scoring by over six lengths. Meanwhile Tough Catch won at first asking and was dabbling in stakes company as a two year old, winning the Sugar Bowl Stakes at the end of that season. He was never involved when stretching out to two turns in the Lecomte last year and then went to the sidelines until he resurfaced at the end of the Keeneland fall meet. He was most recently second in the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes at Mahoning Valley. El Prestigio has a little more early speed and he’s proven over this course. The third runner of note is Baddest Good Boy (#7), who was awesome in his first two starts here last winter. He was good enough to take a swing against a full 14 horse field in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap last February. He had a tough trip and was never involved that day. He came back with a solid effort in N2X company before struggling in his last start at Churchill in May. He’s been sidelined since and he’ll cut back to six furlongs to make his five year old debut. When looking at the pace scenario, I think the edge goes to El Prestigio. The only speed he should have to contend with is Go Captain (#6), and I think Rosario will make the right choice with how to handle him. Asmussen has been persistent with this colt and we’ve seen him develop some very nice sprinters during their four year old seasons. He’s the one to beat in this race. I’ve been a fan of Baddest Good Boy since day one and he’s making his first start for David Fawkes, as he was transferred out of Norm Casse’s barn. He might be better at two turns, but he showed that he can be quite effective at this distance. Tough Catch has also been strong in his last two and he should also be covered here. 

Race 9:

We’ll close out the Sunday program with a state bred $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares, three and up, going six furlongs. Let’s try a bomb on top in this wide open affair. Roots Tootin (#4) is steadily getting better, and she makes her third start off the layoff today. She showed a little zip in her first start at this meet before fading badly. She came back in a tougher spot last weekend and ran a little better, while going off at 93-1. She’s back with state bred company and there really isn’t a standout in this field. If she takes another step forward, she is capable of upsetting this soft group. Sweet Lexus (#6) is the morning line favorite after a respectable 4th place try with $30K-$16K maiden claimers here last month. That is one of those races where Arkansas breds get to run with the $30K tag and other horses are running for $16K. She was more competitive in that race after falling apart in her debut in the slop with maiden allowance types in New Orleans. She certainly fits with these. On deeper tickets, Back Nine (#11) missed the break at this level in December and left herself with way too much work to do. She did fight and improved her position to get into 7th. She has an outside post and should be in the back half of the field early. However, there are several speed and fade types and at least she showed the ability to pass some runners late. She’s probably a better fit for underneath in the vertical wagers, but she’s another one that could be a long price in a race where the ceiling is fairly low for the group.

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 37/186 (19.9%, $283.00 $1.52 ROI)