Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Saturday, 2/14/26 – By Eric Solomon

The Valentine’s Day card at Oaklawn offers 11 races, highlighted by the Dixie Belle Stakes, which is a six furlong stakes race for three year old fillies. It does appear that some rain is in the forecast, so barring a change in the forecast, I’d expect an off track this afternoon.  First post today  is scheduled for 12:30 (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A pair of $30K maiden claiming sprints will start off the afternoon. This race is open to three year olds and up, however, no three year olds are participating here since the next race is just for them. While I don’t make a habit of betting professional maidens, I do think Nyquist Frequency (#3) makes a lot of sense in the opener. He’s making his first start since a dull effort in maiden special weight company at Colonial back in August. He has credible efforts on this course and one of his best efforts came on a sloppy course earlier in his career at Churchill. He’s fired fresh in the past and the reset along with the drop in class should help his cause today. Historic (#7) and Trouble Ahead (#4) were separated by a little more than two lengths when they squared off in a $35K-$25K maiden claiming race here last month. Historic had the upper hand that afternoon, but betting him as the favorite when considering how poorly he ran in his two career starts on wet, sealed tracks, feels very risky. Granted, both of those races on muddy courses resulted in long layoffs following those efforts, so his poor races could be more coincidental, however, as a heavy favorite in this spot, I’d prefer to take my wagering dollar elsewhere. I will use Trouble Ahead (#4), who would be racing on an off track for the first time if the weather forecast does what it says it’s going to do. He has the highest Tomlinson Figure in this field, so perhaps a wet course will be welcomed. He’s finished in the money in his last three races, all of which have come against maiden claimers. He seems like a horse that has found his friends and should be gearing up to graduate in the near future. By taking a hard stand against the favorite, I will use World Fair (#5) as a backup in this race. I think he’s a little slower that what the par would be for the winner here, however, he seemed to thrive in the mud here last season. He is making his second start off a three month layoff, so I’d expect him to be more fit than he was for his last start.

Race 2:

The favorite in this $30K maiden claimer is Lookin at Mac (#8), who is cutting back in distance after being claimed for $35K here last month. Western Warrior ran a big race that day and there’s no one on paper that could run that kind of race here. This is another favorite that feels vulnerable, so I’m looking elsewhere here too. Coal Fired (#3) gets back on the dirt after two dull efforts in auction maiden allowance races at Turfway. He debuted in a $50K maiden claiming race at Churchill and he ran pretty well on a sealed and sloppy course. I’m willing to forgive those poor efforts in Kentucky on the Tapeta course there, and just chalk it up to hating that surface. There’s not a lot of speed on paper in this race, and that might bode well for Lil Trick (#11) here. He’s dropping in for a tag for the first time after trying state bred maiden special weight competition in his local debut. He flashed some early speed before fading to be a distant third. Honey’s to Blame ran a big race that day and he came back to win in open allowance company here last week. This is class relief for him and speed was good on this course yesterday. Horses coming from off the pace have historically struggled on this course when it’s sealed, If that seems to be the case early on, that would only bolster his chances. Maxxus (#4) could also be a part of the early pace in this race. He struggled in his only start in the slop, but he also had a difficult trip in that race, trying to contend early while racing in between rivals in a tougher race. He settled father off the pace in a $50K maiden claiming race in his first start on this oval. Ron Moquett adds blinkers here, signaling to me that he wants this Maximus Mischief gelding closer to the front end in the early stages. 

Race 3:

Another Pick-5 begins with this $20K starter allowance sprint. It’s hard to play against a horse like Uncashed (#7) in this race. He’s an iron horse that has 25 career starts, 15 of which came in 2025. He has 13 wins in that span, including a narrow score on this oval when facing similar back in December. He’s likely going to be outside of the early speed, which has worked well for him in the past. The tricky thing with these races is that any of this seven rivals could step up and run a big race, but none of them are as consistent as this gelding. He’ll be a short price, but I’m not confident enough in anyone else to make them the top pick. The backup for me is Sweet as Sin (#5), who could be the one to benefit from a pace meltdown. I think Uncashed is quick enough to make the lead, but horses like Five o’Somewhere (#1), Golden Luna (#3) and Sitka (#8) could make him work hard. Sweet as Sin is consistent, but maybe a tick slower than some of the others here. However, he has proven that he can come from off the pace effectively on a wet track. 

Race 4:

Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $50K-$40K maiden claiming contest. Empath (#13) is an interesting choice in this race if she gets to participate. She debuted in a maiden optional claiming race at Gulfstream where she was entered with the tag. She showed some early speed and then faded to finish 4th in that race. She failed to draw into the body of this field, so she was cross-entered in a maiden special weight race here on Monday. That race only has a field of 7, so there’s a chance that Mark Casse will declare her from this race and just point to the Monday contest. However, since she was entered with the tag in her debut, there’s reason to believe that this is the preferred level of competition. She’d be guaranteed the outside stall and I do think she’s going to be able to build off her debut. If she’s not going, I’ll side with another second time starter from a high profile barn. Lonely Woman (#9) debuted in a $50K maiden claiming race last month where she finished an even 4th. It was a respectable first try and it feels like Asmussen put her at the right level of competition. While I don’t love that she hasn’t recorded a public workout since that race, I do think she’ll be more competitive with that maiden voyage under her belt. Legal Lightning (#3) is making her third start off the layoff while taking another drop in class for Lindsay Schultz. She ran well in the slop two back and despite going off as a mild favorite in her last start, she faced a better bunch than she’s seeing here. I’d expect a better effort from her as well. On deeper tickets, I’d give another look to Tizmatic (#5). Her last try was a disaster and she wasn’t great two back when trying two turns for the first time. However, her first two starts were solid and she’s now running for Tom Amoss, who claimed her out of that last race. The fact that she’s back at this level suggests to me that she’s giving off some positive vibes. 

Race 5: 

Time restricted $12,500 claimers will go nine furlongs for the first route race of the afternoon. This feels like a very good spot for Sir Exton (#2). He likes an off track and he likes this course. He had a nice string of races put together here last spring and he brought his good form to Delaware. They shelved him after a dull effort in starter allowance company back in August and he resurfaced in New Orleans last month against a solid beaten $30K claiming group. He wasn’t great in that spot, but that level felt like a little bit of a reach. He drops to a more reasonable level where I think he should be very comfortable. While this race is for horses that haven’t won twice since June 14th, Ethical Judgement (#3) still qualifies since the two races he won at Remington were races where he ran with a $10K claiming tag. There is something to be said for a horse that has some good recent form when competing in these time restricted claiming races, especially at lower levels. He is 0-4 on this oval and he’s a bit of a plodder. However, if horses are having some success making up ground from the back of the pack, I do think he’s a candidate to be running late. A deeper saver for me is Critical Threat (#11) who has been awful in his last two. He was absolutely empty at this level in his last start and he was claimed by a lower percentage outfit. He’s done some of his best work on wet tracks though, as he’s only three races removed from a monster effort in the slop at Keeneland. That might be enough of a reason to take a small flyer on him. 

Race 6:

Arkansas breds will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 claiming race. Patton’s Tizzy (#1) makes a lot of sense on the drop, but the fact that he has been beaten by double digit lengths in his three career starts on a sealed wet track is very concerning. For a horse that has performed poorly on off tracks in the past, I think braking from the rail is the worst case scenario. Unless he gets a flyer coming out of the gate, I don’t think he has enough speed to make the front end, so if he can’t secure his rail position, he’s going to be in behind runners, taking a lot of mud to the face. I think he’s very vulnerable in this race, and I’m going to try to beat him outright, assuming we’re dealing with a muddy or sloppy course. Table Money (#13) fits at this level if he can draw into this race. He was well beaten when making his first start in 11 months in his last try. He faced a very sharp allowance group where the winner, Nicholai, came back to beat a very good field in his next start. This gelding was 75-1 in that race, which tells me that they were rolling the dice at that level, but they at least wanted to get a race into him before bringing him back at a more reasonable spot. He’s more consistent than most of these runners and should be more fit in his second start back. Holding Pattern (#4) is making his first start since August this afternoon, while running for a new barn. He was fairly sharp at the beginning of the summer when competing at Prairie Meadows, but he was tailing off in form, which likely explains the rest. At this distance, he’s one that will be trying to close from the back of the pack, which has been a successful move for him here in the past. He might need this start, but if he’s sharp, he fits well with this group. Blessed Vision (#12) might have a lower ceiling than some of the other contenders, he showed last month that his high floor serves him well. He beat many of these in a $10K state bred claiming race last time out. When comparing the fields, there’s not much difference between these two class levels. He has four wins in nine starts on this course and he’s won here on an off track in the past. 

Race 7: 

Open $24K claimers going one mile will start the Late Pick-5. This is a tricky race because there’s not many races carded at this claiming price so we’re several horses that feel evenly matched, coming in from a variety of conditions. I don’t love the favorite, Sara’s Shaman (#11) dropping in class immediately after being claimed for $40K here in his last start. He was excellent this summer in Texas, but I think if Brad Cox thought he was going to run those kinds of races, there’s no way he’d be dropping him in class. The post is no picnic either in a race where there are several capable alternatives. I think Notary (#3) is very interesting at this level on the drop in class. He was very sharp in 2024, finishing 3rd in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap in his last start that year. He went to the sidelines for 18 months following that big effort and he came back with a win against an overmatched allowance field at Prairie Meadows. He struggled against a good allowance field at Churchill and then came back three months later where he was not a factor against a stakes quality allowance field here. He’s making his second start off the layoff and he’s getting some serious class relief. He’s an eight year old gelding that clearly isn’t the horse that he was earlier in his career. However, I think he can improve, and a wet track may help his cause. He dominated a good field to clear the N2X allowance condition in the mud here two years ago. Fear of Union (#8) makes his first start in six months in this race for Greg Compton. He won both of his races in restricted claiming company on this course in 2025 and he was competitive against some nice starter allowance fields at Delaware Park over the summer. He tried tougher company at the Spa in August and he was easily defeated in that race. He’s back at a more respectable level of competition for a barn whose horses have struggled early on at this meet. With more race days in this part of the meet, there are more options for claiming horses to find that sweet spot, so I do expect Compton’s barn to pick things up sooner than later. Mumayaz (#6) has 12 starts on this course and has yet to visit the Winner’s Circle. While I don’t love that at all, I do think he’s been competitive in a lot of his races here. Part of the issue is that he feels like a horse that might be best at a seven furlong or one turn mile distance. However, he’s shown that he can compete in a two turn mile. He just missed in N1X company at this distance on this course last January. He’s run credible races on off tracks and he might be the best of the speed horses in this race, allowing him to dictate the terms on the front end. He’s worth including on the B line for sure.

Race 8: 

One thing to make a note of for this state bred maiden special weight contest is that it is carded for three year olds and up, however, all 14 runners that entered in this race are three year olds. Humorous Saint (#12) showed some early zip when facing Honey’s to Blame in his debut. That one came back to beat open allowance types and has a date in the Rebel Stakes next month. There doesn’t appear to be a horse of that caliber in this race so having that race in the bag might give him an edge over his rivals today. The fact that the morning line favorite from the horses that are in the body of the field is the firster, Arkansas Lovin Man (#8), that tells me that he’s caught the eye of the clockers in the mornings. Ray Ashford has a solid track with firsters, already scoring with one at this meet. The dam’s first foal to race just broke her maiden in her 10th career start, however, the dam herself was sharp, just missing in her debut. There’s enough signs there to make sure he’s on my tickets. Wolf Tooth (#14) needs two defections in order to participate, but it’s worth mentioning that his presence totally changes the feel of this race. He was decent in his debut when going one mile, and while I’m not sure I love the cut back to a sprint, I do think there’s enough quality to make sure he’s included. Bemis (#3) is another firster that is showing signs of quality in the mornings. John Ortiz and Ramon Vazquez don’t win a ton of races together, but with other jockeys out of town to ride in New Orleans or Saudi Arabia, Vazquez is one of the better riders on the grounds today.

Race 9: The $150K Dixie Belle Stakes:

Ten three year old fillies are set to dash six furlongs in the featured race this afternoon. There’s some very nice debut winners that are taking on a Louisiana bred stalwart in this race. Little Miss Curlin (#6) is out to prove that she can compete with open company after winning her first four career starts in state bred company in the Pelican State. She has thumped the best state bred sprinters in her generation in her last three starts at the Fair Grounds, winning three stakes races, all by open lengths for Patrick Devereux. She’s from the freshman crop of Charlatan out of a Curlin mare. She has not competed on an off track, but her Tomlinson numbers are sharp and she certainly appeared to handle the mud just fine when working out at Delta a few weeks ago. It’s going to take a massive effort to beat her. The presence of Mark Casse’s French Friction (#1), who was extremely impressive when winning here on debut back in December, should keep this filly’s odds from dipping too low. Casse’s huge win percentage at the meet is starting to have an effect on the prices of his runners. As a result, I’d lean more on Just Bluffing (#10), who might have been more impressive when scoring debut against a full field of maidens on the Lecomte Day undercard. She was overlooked in the wagering, going to post at 21-1, but this Mitole filly was better than expected that day. She drew off late to win by three lengths, suggesting that she could be even better. She’s another filly with Curlin as a dam sire, so there are stamina and off track influences with her as well. 

Race 10:

The optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance races here are always strong races and this 1 1/16 mile test is no different. There are several horses on this card that simply know how to win races and Navajo Warrior (#5) is one of them. He comes into this race as the 7-5 favorite. He’s been really good lately, winning seven of his last nine starts. One of the two races that he lost came on the turf in Southern California and the other was in the Claiming Crown Championship race where he had a brutal trip. He’s never competed on an off track, but his Tomlinson Figure is very good. He was six lengths better than Keen Cat (#6), who is the third choice on the morning line. This is his race to lose. I’ll use Speed Bias (#4) as the saver in this race. His best days might be in the rear view mirror, but he has fired fresh in the past. While he only has one win in 13 tries here, he has another seven in the money finishes. He can handle an off track and is one that could be rolling late. He makes sense as a value play underneath. 

Race 11:

The card ends with a $32K N2L claiming race at six furlongs. The $3 Late Pick-3, which starts in the 9th race, has a chance to be very chalky today because the three favorites in these three races looks very tough. Mitty’s Griddy (#11) is a big class dropper for Brad Cox. I remember his last to first surge in his debut back in 2024, but he missed almost a year after that race. He came back with a solid effort to be third at Ellis, but he struggled at the first level allowance condition at Churchill two starts back. Cox dropped him in class to an $80K N2L level where he ran 4th as the 9-5 favorite. This is easily the softest competition that he’ll face, and this race is littered with horses that have never realized the high expectations they had at the starts of their careers. There’s not many I can see being able to compete with him, but I do think Pride’s Prince (#2) is an interesting longshot in this race. He’s dropping in class while making his third start off the layoff. He was claimed for $50K here in the spring and then he went to the sidelines for seven months. He showed speed and then faded in his first two tries against better. He’s sired by Munnings out of a Malibu Moon mare, so I’m thinking that an off track could be to his liking. I’ll roll the dice and hope for a price with him on top. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 36/175 (20.6%, $271.00 $1.55 ROI)