Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 2/26/26 – By Eric Solomon

Another four day week gets started at Oaklawn with this nine race program. There’s some nice races later on the card for three year old fillies, including a maiden special weight contest and a first level allowance race. There’s a nice crescendo of racing this week leading up to the Rebel Day program on Sunday. There could be a little rain early in the day, but conditions should be clearing in what is forecasted to be a beautiful weather weekend. First post is set for 12:30 (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Rebel Week begins with a beaten $12,500 claiming race for old horses going six furlongs. This race is open to horses that have either never won three times or have not won a race since September 26th. Many of the runners in this race are moving up in class, but Lightning Struck (#2) appears to be moving to an easier spot after an off the board finish in a ratings handicap at Sam Houston in his last start. He just missed in a compact field there two starts ago when facing open $20K claimers. He faced that same level here at the beginning of the meet and ran a race that was not enough for that level, but that same effort would play very well with this group. Asmussen’s runners continue to run well at this meet and several had offered decent volume. A lot of contenders in this race are coming from barns that are ice cold at the moment, so sticking with a hot hand seems to make sense. The morning line favorite, Boat Song (#6), makes his first start since October at Delaware when facing first level allowance company. He met decent fields twice at that level and finished off the board in both races, despite not running terribly. His last win came on this course last season, almost exactly one year ago. These are the two that I want from this race.

Race 2: 

Fillies and mares will compete in this $32K N1Y claiming race, set for six furlongs. Valhalla Vixen (#2) is at her best when she is on or near the lead. She hasn’t been able to sniff the front end in her last two races, which came when facing stronger competition. Both Spring Dancer and Miss Arlington, the two ladies that won the last two races that she was entered in, came back to win their subsequent starts against better competition. There is really no early speed signed on for this race, so I would think the assignment for Serafin Carmona will be to try to get this mare on the front end. She was a winner on this course last season when following a similar racing pattern, so I do think we’ll see a solid effort from her today. Talkin in Cursive (#6) is likely going to be the one to keep her honest in this race. She made her local debut here two weeks ago in a $16K starter allowance race. She finished fifth in that spot, so the class relief in this spot feels warranted. She was claimed for $12,500 in the summer and she came back to beat open $40K claimers in her next start at the Spa. She hasn’t been as sharp of late, but she fits very well in this condition. Windy Bay (#5) will be more of a backup for me in this spot. She was second at level similar to this two back when Titled Lady ran a huge race to win by eight lengths. She has decent efforts on this course, finishing first or second four times in eight tries. She’s coming out of the same that Miss Arlington was in and that mare came back to win a ratings handicap here on Saturday. I think the top two should be in a better position early on, but if they wind up duking it out, she’d be the one I want to be covered with. 

Race 3:

The first route race of the day is for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles in an optional $62,500 claiming/$50K starter allowance. There was a similar race 19 days ago where Misinformation (#3), Horse of the Sea (#4), and Highly Connected (#5) hit the wire together, with Horse of the Sea getting the nod by the slimmest of margins. Misinformation has heavy favorites in that race and it felt like he was significantly better than that field. Jose Ortiz put him on the lead and allowed him to set a slow pace. He was challenged and he dug in gamely, only to lose the bob in the last stride. Despite the pedigree, I wonder if he’s more comfortable stalking the pace when going one turn. Both of his wins came in 6 ½ furlong races in Kentucky, and I’m not sure he’s as strong when finishing his races at two turns. While Mark Casse has had a sensational meet, I do wonder how high his ceiling is. He’s been good enough to make sure that he’s covered on some tickets here, but I wonder how much that last race is going to take out of all three of those runners. The horse that could be lost in the shuffle in terms of wagering could be Herbs Bolt (#7), who is my top pick in this race, He was a winner in a similar spot here two back. He paired his Beyer when finishing third in a good allowance race at the Fair Grounds on the Lecomte undercard. The runaway winner in that race is running back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday. Joe Sharp claimed this horse for $30K at Churchill back in November and he seems to have him trending in the right direction. Luis Saez was aboard for his last win and he’ll get back in the saddle again today. 

Race 4:

Fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this $32K N2L claiming race. This feels like a very good spot for Bamtwentyklater (#4) and Ramon Vazquez. Vazquez went on a heater last week and was able to start the week off one win ahead of Cristian Torres for the top spot in the jockey standings. This Tiz the Law filly ships in from the Fair Grounds for the second start off the Tom Amoss claim. He tried her on the turf last out for the first time where she ran a game 4th when facing a similar group. She was very good this past summer at Prairie Meadows, winning once and finishing second in her other three starts there. She struggled in two sprint races at Churchill, but I think the longer distance on the dirt will suit her well. I think she’s going to be able to build off her last effort. Thea (#8) is the backup for me, dropping back into N2L claiming company after a decent pair of races with first level allowance types. She ran a big race here three back, coming within a neck of pulling off a 23-1 upset in a $75K N2L claiming race. She outran her long odds when facing large fields in both N1X races in her last two stats. She probably deserves to be the favorite in this spot, but I think her post could make it tough for her to run the race she wants to run. 

Race 5: 

There are a total of 21 multi-race wagers available on nine race cards at Oaklawn. The 5th race of the day is involved in 10 of those wagers. Today’s 5th race is a $12,500 maiden claiming race for Arkansas breds who will be sprinting six furlongs. The even money favorite in this race is Bigwrigdude (#9), who will be looking for his first in the money finish, let alone his first win today. Greg Burchell is the co-breeder, co-owner and trainer of this colt who is one two horses that was sired by the Grade 3 winning colt, Stickstatelydude. While neither of his runners have won, they’ve generally been ambitiously placed. This gelding made his first start in six months last month when he faced open $35K-$25K maiden claimers. He was sent off at 185-1 that day, and now he’s expected to go off at odds below even money. That might be the biggest gap in odds that I’ve seen between two races, however, his figures tell the story that he’s just faster than these hapless runners. Luis Saez taking the mount tells me that he’s sensing that this could be easy money. I like his prospects better than the 9-5 second choice, Gimme a Chance (#11). He’s 0-3, and while his figures suggest he’s not too far behind the favorite, there’s nothing from what I can tell, that this horse does particularly well. He’s been beaten by double digit lengths in some lower level races. While he’s getting class relief here, he doesn’t have much early speed to speak of. Maybe he can get close, but I’d prefer to roll the dice with Denali Lightning (#12) as the backup. He’s drawn another outside post for his first start since the end of the 24-25 meet. He has some early speed and should benefit from facing some early season three year olds in this race. 

Race 6: 

Fillies and mares go 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race which starts the Late Pick-4. Adogate (#2) routed for the first time at this level in her last start in December and she finished a spoiled third, about 3 ½ lengths behind Floating Beauty (#5). She was in a nice spot along the rail, but she lost some position while getting caught in traffic behind a fading pacesetter. Floating Beauty tracked three wide and got the jump on her. She hit the front, but was caught late and had to settle for being second best.. I’ll give the slight edge to Adogate coming back today. She should be able to move forward in her second try at this distance. She flashed a little early foot, before opting to back off once a longshot asserted herself and assumed command on the first turn. She went off form for a little bit in the summer, but Asmussen looks to have her back in stride. I think she can turn the tables on her rival. Floating Beauty is still a serious player. She had an allowance score two starts back at Delta which was sandwiched in between a pair of second place finishes here at this level when drawing wide posts both times. She was wide three weeks ago, but she was gaining late to get up for the place. I think the top pick has a bit of a higher ceiling, but I like the consistency for this Cloud Computing mare. I’ll back up with the California invader, Lolo Le Plume (#8), who has been installed as the 5-2 morning line favorite. She has one win in 15 starts, but she has eight other in the money finishes. That suggests that she’s more desirable when used underneath in the vertical exotics. Robert Hess has had her working out in Kentucky since her last start at Santa Anita last month. She was favored behind a next out winner in that race, so perhaps she’ll be more comfortable at this level on this course.

Race 7:

The runners with experience in this 6 furlong maiden special weight race aren’t doing a whole lot for me, so I’ll give one of the firsters, Fraud Alert (#2) a look here. She’s a Charlatan first time starter that has been working well in the AM for Randy Morse. Her ¾ brother, Wyatt’s Town, is a winner on dirt and a multiple stakes winner on the synthetic. There’s been a few minor hiccups in her training, so it’s taken her a little longer to make it to the track than I think her connections might have liked. However, she continues to show ability in the mornings and I think she’ll be right in the mix here/. Helene’s Power (#4) is the other one I want from this race. She just missed at long odds when making her first start since June three weeks ago. She closed well into a fast pace and came up a mere neck short. That was a solid effort for her three year old debut, so I’d have to think that if the firster that I picked on top is not up for the challenge, she’d be the one that breaks the maiden in this spot. 

Race 8: 

I found the featured race, which is an optional $150K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year old fillies, to be one of the more challenging handicapping puzzles on this card. Horses are trying to make a late push to jump on the Oaks trail in this race and many are hitting the reset button after a subpar try in stakes company. It’s also hard to quantify the effects of less than ideal starts in the last race for five of the eight runners here. I feel like I’ve seen this movie before with Brad Cox sending out a horse that led every step of the way in a maiden victory. Sticker Shock (#5) (not to be confused with Sticker Shocked, who is a three year old filly that ran in the Years End Stakes, in which some of these horses also competed in) ran a nice figure back at Churchill when scoring for the first time. She finished ahead of Search Party, who runs in the Honeybee on Sunday. That filly came back to break her maiden and then win the Martha Washington Stakes here in her last two starts. While all of that is quite flattering to this horse, I want to see what happens when she’s tested, and I do think there are horses in this race that can keep her honest. I don’t have a ton of faith in her, but I would use her as a deeper saver on a few tickets. I landed on Spitfire (#1) as the top pick in this race. She showed some promise last year as a two year old. She broke her maiden in a maiden auction race at Saratoga and then shipped down to Monmouth where she was a game second in the Sorority Stakes, going one mile. She tried the turf in her last start as a two year old, but she was not really a factor in the Selima Stakes at Laurel. She made her first start of the year in the Martha Washington and she turned her head at the break, causing her to come out of the gate in last place. She didn’t lose too much ground, but she lost a lot of valuable position as she was in behind a wall of horses for the better part of her run down the back stretch. She was never really able to accelerate that day, and perhaps she simply needed that race. She wheels back in three weeks with a sharp workout since her last start. I think she’ll be a little close to the front today and I think we’re going to see a more fit filly in general. Scot’s Law (#2) is another horse who didn’t have the best of starts last time out when she was competing in the Years End Stakes. She did get into third that day, but Counting Stars was a much the best winner that afternoon. She was sharp two back in a starter allowance in Kentucky and I do think she can contend at this level. Copper Wind (#7) also ran in the Years End, but she didn’t have the excuse of blowing the break. However, I think her outside post today could force to sit back off the pace, which might be a winning kind of trip today. She was very sharp in her debut and I do think her two turn debut in her second try should prove to be educational. 

Race 9:

Fillies and mares close out the day in this $12,500 state bred maiden claiming sprint. If you thought the form was rough in the 5th race, wait until you get a look at these runners. Jack’s Gal (#8) makes her third career start today after pairing her first two speed figures. She’s dropping in class and feels like one that could move forward in this spot. She’s had inside draws for her first two starts, so drawing farther outside might put her in a more comfortable position early on. I’m not sure how the wagering will play out, but 4-1 in the morning line feels more tolerable than the short prices on Air Castle (#4) or Paris Accord (#9). Of that duo, I’d feel more confident using Paris Accord. Like Air Castle, she has entered into professional maiden territory. While Air Castle has better efforts in her history, they feel like they were an awful long time ago, whereas Paris Accord has been a little sharper in her first two tries at this meet. I’ll also include the second time starter, Highway Seventy (#7) on my tickets. She didn’t show much when debuting against better, but she’s adding blinkers and dropping in class for her second try. It’s not going to take much to move the needle at this level.

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 46/235 (19.6%, $354.80 $1.51 ROI)