Oaklawn Park Full Card Analysis – Thursday, 2/5/26 – By Eric Solomon

After a month long hiatus, Oaklawn Park is back with the first of 51 cards for the “Classic” portion of their 2025-2026 meet. Racing shifts to four day race weeks for the majority of the meet starting on Thursday. There’s some good stakes action all weekend long which will welcome racing fans back to Hot Springs. The Fifth Season Stakes for four year olds and up will be the spotlight for today’s program. First post this afternoon is set for 12:30 PM (CST).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first race of the day is a $75K N2L claiming race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going one mile. I landed on Ministry’s Destiny (#1) as the top pick in the opener. She’s making her second start off a layoff while stretching out to two turns for the first time in her career. She’s been competitive in all four career starts, running well at long odds in the Rainbow Miss Stakes three starts back. She graduated from maiden company with a strong win in the slop at the end of the 24-25 meet. She returned in a N1X allowance race here at the end of December, where she ran okay in a six furlong sprint. She gets a rail draw for her first try at two turns, and while her pedigree leans to one turn races, I do think she can compete at this distance.Her half brother is 0-2 at two turns, but he had rough trips in both of those races. She ran well in her second career start, which suggests to me that she’ll fire in her second start off the layoff white also getting Lasix for the first time. There’s a pair of three year olds taking on their elders in this spot and I think both are interesting. Woodruff (#2) is preferred, as she tries state bred company for the first time. She’s only making her third career start, but she was good enough to beat a $30K maiden claiming field on debut when going two turns at Keeneland in October. While that wasn’t the best field there for the condition, not many horses were winning with wide moves while coming from off the pace for the better part of the meet this fall on the dirt at Keeneland. She was in over her head in a starter allowance race at Churchill when she was last seen on the track. This is class relief for her, despite the fact that she’s facing older horses as a newly turned three year old. There’s not many horses that have a true two-turn pedigree in this race, but she’s one of them. Lindsay Schultz had a strong first part of this meet, winning with five of 21 starters. She’ll get Lasix for the first time in this spot as well. On deeper tickets, I’ll use the other three year old filly, Sisters in Town (#4). She’s one of two horses trained by John Ortiz in this race and both fillies have the same dam. Danilo Rave Grisales rides a lot of horses for this barn and he rode both this filly and Miss Macy (#5) in their last starts. He lands on the stablemate, but getting apprentice Amir Mendoza in the irons might be an upgrade. I liked the tenacity that this filly showed in her debut when facing $50K state bred maiden claimers. She’s bred by Mo Town, so from a pedigree standpoint, she’s better suited than her half-sister. She gets a considerable weight break from her rivals while facing winners in her first route. Ortiz is 5 for 53 (9%) with horses routing for the first time in their second career start, but 30% of those runners finished in the money. At longer odds, I’d give her a look.

Race 2:

A full field will go six furlongs in this $30K N2L claiming race that starts the first Pick-4 wager of the day. Bob’s Carrot (#2) isn’t the most consistent runner in the field, but he’s good when he can make the lead without being challenged. He was all in from the jump when facing a $75K N2L claiming field here last month. His rival wasn’t giving an inch as they battled for a half mile before both fading to the back on the field throughout the stretch drive. Despite facing a bigger field today, he is getting class relief and there isn’t a ton of other speed signed on for this spot. I think he’s faster than Run for Gold (#9) and Poppa Echo (#11) doesn’t always break the sharpest. He is usually quick from the gate and the class relief should help his cause. Rowdy Riot (#12) might be getting the most class relief in the field, so it’s no surprise that he’s favored on the morning line in this race. He was very good in N1X company here last season. He went off form in the fall in three starts at that level at Churchill this fall. He’s been working well since shipping back here from Kentucky. If he gets back to his spring form, he’s going to be very tough to deal with in this race. 

Race 3:

Beaten $10K claimers will sprint six furlongs in this race. This race is restricted to either horses that have never won three times or have not won a race in the last six months. I’m going to try String Theory (#7) on top in this spot. Both of his career wins came on this course at this distance. He went off form in some Kentucky races after leaving Hot Springs last spring. Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez claimed him on behalf of End Zone Athletics, and they have a strong track record of winning first off the claim. He’s been working better since coming back to Oaklawn so he could be a candidate to improve here. Ravin’s Town (#5) just missed at this level last month losing by a nose as the 5-2 favorite. Luis Saez gets the assignment today, replacing an apprentice rider, so while he adds six pounds, I do think the experience of the jockey is a big upgrade. His only win on the dirt came in 2024 in an off the turf race at Hawthorne. There are some things to like, but I’ll need every bit of the 7-2 morning line to stay on board. On deeper tickets, I’ll look to hedge my bets with Hedge (#12). He’s taking a deep drop in class after faltering in a $30K beaten claiming race where Jacobsen claimed him. The distance might be a tad short for him as his best efforts seem to come in longer, one turn sprints. His best effort will put him right there. I’m suspicious of the drop, but Jacobsen has done this from time to time with some success. 

Race 4:

This is a really good N1X allowance race with some horses that could be stakes bound in the near future. Nu What’s New (#2) is the morning line favorite after a monster effort when routing for the dirt for the first time. While I thought we were going to get better than 11-10 odds on him that day, I thought he was a great play in that race because he had a definitive pace advantage over his graded stakes placed rival, Publisher. He moves to face winners for the first time after recording a monstrous 101 Beyer Speed Figure for his front-running win, and that number should guarantee that he’s a short price once again in this contest. While he’s going to have a shot to make the lead, there is clearly more pace signed on for this race. While he could be vulnerable, I don’t really like the main threats in this spot. I also consider the fact that he showed that he can be just as dangerous when coming from off the pace when he came up a neck short twice when coming from off the pace in maiden sprints in Kentucky. Saez should have plenty of options with this gelding, who should be very tough to deal with in this spot. Zero Sugar (#8) often runs well, but I think he’s overrated, and I’m not sure he’s at his best when racing on this course. Instead, I’ll look to the California invader, Miracle Mark (#5) as an alternative in this race. His two turn dirt races aren’t that bad. He was last seen when facing a tough field at this level on Breeders’ Cup Day at Del Mar. Between the traffic and not having Lasix, while also running at a distance that was not his best, there were a lot of factors working against him. He only has one win in 16 career starts and that victory came on the lawn. I think he has more upside than most though in this race and he could benefit if the early pace is hotly contested. 

Race 5: 

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500 maiden claiming contest. Horses bred in Arkansas will get to compete with a $20K claiming tag. I landed on Calipari’s Girl (#11) in this race, as she’s slated to make her first start in gnarly 13 months today. There are some things to like, as she is getting some major class relief. She faced two horses in open maiden company last time out that went on to be stakes winners. She was trying two turns for the first time, while stepping up in class for that race. Since we haven’t seen her on the track since that day, it’s also fair to assume that something was amiss, which could have occurred during the race. While her ownership group stays the same, she gets a positive trainer switch, moving into Mike Maker’s barn. While his runners struggled during the Holiday Portion of this meet, he has strong numbers with new acquisitions and horses that are dropping in from maiden allowance company into maiden claiming company for the first time. Emmallene (#9) is trending in the right direction after a third place finish on New Year’s Day. That was a $16K maiden claiming race where the top two finishers would likely be heavy favorites if they were in this race. She’s trending up while making her third start off the layoff for Allen Milligan. I’ll also throw in the first time starter for John Ortiz, Psalm Twenty Seven (#1). Ortiz trained both of her dam’s first two starters and neither showed much on debut in maiden allowance company. However, the dam was competitive at first asking and one of her foals was a winner in her second start. Tekton as a sire is 1-9 with debuting runners in maiden claiming races. Her works seem to fit this level of competition, and while the rail is no picnic, it wouldn’t shock me if she outran her odds. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $50K N2Y claiming race for horses that have not won twice since August 30th. Mischievous M (#9) makes a lot of sense in this race. He’s looking for his second win of the meet after pulling off the 32-1 upset in N1X allowance company two starts ago. His connections shot their shot in the Commodore Overnight Stakes here at the beginning of the month, but he was in over his head in that spot. He likes racing on this course and the drop in class feels fair since he was claimed for $35K here last winter. He’s already paid his dividends and the N2X level here feels above his level, so I’m comfortable with him dropping to this spot. This race could be ripe for a deep closer The eight year old gelding, Caramel Chip (#5) might be the best of that bunch that likes to roll late. He hasn’t been great in his two starts since he was claimed for $50K by Kantarmaci back in November. He likes this distance and is a 12 time winner in his career though. There are several that want to go early in this race, so assuming the blinkers can help him relax, he could be the one I trust the most to close late in this spot. Fort Sam (#7) was good enough to clear the N2X condition at Churchill three starts ago, pulling off the 9-1 upset when competing at this six furlong distance. He struggled against tougher groups at Keeneland when trying two turns and back here at this distance. He’s not the most consistent, and he tends to need to be on the lead to be at his best. 

Race 7: 

The starting gate will stay in the six furlong chute for this $50K maiden claiming contest for three year olds. I landed on Palmer Beach (#4), making his third career start today. He gets Lasix and blinkers for the first time and after watching the first two starts, that seems like it would be a good move. He debuted in a maiden special weight race on this course at this distance. He broke well and then lost some action, before advancing late while switching off the rail. He ran back two weeks later in an optional maiden claiming race when going one mile. He was closer to the front end in the earlier stages, and while it doesn’t look like he was going to win, he did have some traffic woes in that race that could have caused him to finish farther back than he could have.  I like that he’s cutting back to six furlongs and the drop in class feels warranted. I think the ride change to Ramon Vazquez is also a plus. Looking at the morning line odds I think the talent levels are closer than the odds disparity between McFasty (#6), Little Krush (#7), and Scuffle (#8). Little Krush dropped to this level last out when making his second career start, and he finished 5th, about a length behind McFasty, who is the 9-5 morning line favorite. McFasty has some solid efforts on off tracks, but his fast track form is not as strong. Little Krush was forced to be wide on the turn in his last race and that wasn’t the best place to be on this track throughout the month of December. He’s another one that will be getting blinkers and Lasix for the first time in this race. Scuffle has been struggling with better fields in two turn races in his last few starts. He was chasing a strong pace in a tough maiden allowance at Keeneland in October at this same distance. I think both of these colts have a higher ceiling than McFasty in this race. I think both are candidates to improve with this field, while I’m not sure that I want to take too short of a price on that one, who is consistent, but has had many chances. The course should be dry when looking at the forecast, but I’d upgrade him on an off track. He’s more of a deeper saver  though.  

Race 8: The $150K Fifth Season Stakes:

Nine are entered in the featured stakes race going one mile here. The three short prices in this race, Pony Express (#1), Komorebino Omoide (#4), and Speed King (#9), all want to be forward in this race. If speed is holding and the inner portion of the course is as strong as it was early in the meet, I do think Pony Express has a clear edge from the rail. However, if the track appears to be fair, I think this trio becomes vulnerable, assuming all three are competing. As a result, the winner of the Prince of Wales Stakes, Runaway Again (#7) becomes a very interesting alternative. He has five starts, three of which were very strong and two were not good at all. His only race on traditional dirt came in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie in September, improving enough to beat the winner of the Kings Plate, Mansetti. He has two solid efforts at 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta at Woodbine, including an allowance score which ended his three year old season. He did cross-enter in the General McArthur Overnight Stakes tomorrow. While I think the nine furlong distance of that race might suit him better than the one mile distance here, I like the fit for him in this spot instead. The California invader, Pony Express has a class edge over this field. He just missed in the Tokyo City Stakes in his last stakes race. He’s been working well at Santa Anita and appears to be well-spotted for his second start outside of the Golden State. He’s a sharp gate horse and should be able to hold his position with Komorebino Omoide and Speed King likely also gunning for the front. If Runaway Again does defect from this race in favor of the stakes race tomorrow, Will Take It (#8) would be the one I’d upgrade. I’d prefer him in this spot if this race was contested at a one turn mile. He is capable at two turns though and I think his effort in the Tenacious last out was better than it looks on paper. He feels like the one that would have the best chance to catch the speedsters should the top pick not show up. 

Race 9:

A dozen are entered in this $12,500 starter allowance contest going six furlongs. This race starts with Raymond (#11), who certainly appeared to be happy to be back in Hot Springs when he won a race at this level last month. After leaving town at the end of the 24-25 meet, he went off form a bit, and while it was fair to wonder if this seven year old gelding was losing a step, his last effort implied that he is not. He has seven wins in 13 career tries on this oval. He really developed into a quality horse last year under Timothy Martin’s training. Part of his surge last year can be attributed to his relation with Tyler Bacon. This horse can win close to the front end or go last to first if he has to. I think he’s going to be tough to beat here. The backup for me in this race is Ceepeegee (#12) breaking from the outside stall in this one. He was sharp in four tries on this course last season and he’s getting some class relief after a 5th place finish in a $25K starter allowance race here last month. While three of his last four tries have been a bit dull, his allowance effort at Monmouth was sharp last year at long odds.  He’s making his second start off the layoff and this would be a logical spot for him to take a step forward. 

Race 10:

Three year old fillies will close out the card in a six furlong maiden special weight contest. This feels like a race where some coverage will be valuable. I’m going to try to one of the two firsters on top in this spot, siding with River Wind (#9) for Norm Casse. The dam has foaled three other runners and two of them were winners on debut, albeit at lesser tracks. Freshman sire, Lexitonian, has not been off to a great start at stud, but he did get his first debut winner with Drewtonian at Remington Park last month. The fact that his connections paid 20X the price of his stud fee for this filly back in April tells me that this one has hinted that she has some ability. While the human connections got off to a slow start at this meet, this one has been working well enough to compete with this group. Jolly Jolene (#8) lost all chance at the break when competing in the first race of the meet last month. She broke in a tangle and spotted the field several lengths in the early stages, not ever really making it into the frame of the TV screen until they turned for home. She did improve enough to be 5th that afternoon, but overall, I think she has more ability than she was able to show in that race. Helene’s Power (#2) ran twice in some above average races at Lone Star to start her career last spring. She just missed in her last start, but went to the sidelines since that effort. David Cabrera is named to ride here today, so the fact that he’s not riding this filly is a little concerning. However, if she picks up where she left off, she could be tough. Both the favorites, Charted Destiny (#4) and Black Magic River (#5) are coming out of the same maiden race here last month, where both were racing for the first time. Charted Destiny was bumped shortly after breaking and was knocked off stride, spotting the field several lengths. She ran on a bit late, but those first 50 yards took their toll. I think she’s more likely to improve in this spot than Black Magic River is. That filly showed some early interest, but simply wasn’t good enough. I’m not rushing back to play her as the favorite in this race. 

2025-26 Meet Statistics

Top Pick Winners: 26/132 (19.7%, $185.20 $1.40 ROI)