Oaklawn Park Full Card Preview – 12/14/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s 10 races scheduled at Oaklawn Park this Saturday, highlighted by the $150K Mistletoe Stakes. This is the first in a series of races for older fillies and mares, leading up to the Grade 1 Apple Blossom here in April. Rain was forecasted to start rolling through the area on Friday night and stay throughout the part of the day on Saturday. I’ll be handicapping this card, keeping an off track in mind. First post is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll kick things off with a $35K-$30K N2L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. Eight are entered here, and I see Rebelious (#1) as the horse with the most upside in the field. He debuted on a sloppy course here in April and ran on belatedly after missing the break. Norman McKnight claimed him from that race and sent him to Canada with his contingent at Woodbine. He broke his maiden in his third career start and his second on the Tapeta. He proved to be competitive in some allowance races there. His lone effort at first asking was competitive enough, and couple that with the improvement he showed up north, I think he’s going to be tough to deal with here. Tiz Wicked Strong (#7) is the other runner I’d use in this spot. He was a professional maiden that finally graduated in a nine furlong maiden special weight contest at Finger Lakes in his most recent start. He moved into Lindsay Schultz’s barn and has three works over this oval for her. I think he’s well-spotted for his first try against winners. That last effort could be the confidence boost that he needed. 

Race 2: 

I don’t see a ton of value in this $30K maiden claiming race for two year olds, going 1 1/16 miles. If there is an off track, that will be a new experience for everyone with the exception of Honor Bo (#10). I think Truth Bomb (#1) is going to be able to use his rail front to make the early lead and take them all the way here. He ran a credible second in a maiden special weight race at Horseshoe Indianapolis two starts back. He was bet down to 7-5 in a competitive race at that level for his second start. He was jostled around and running up on heels after breaking a beat slow. From there, it was just never going to be his day. He was three wide into the first turn and four wide in the second turn, while being forced out into the six path at the top of the lane. If he breaks well, this one could be over for the other nine. The backup play for me in this spot is Big Bourbon River (#5), making his second career start for Chris Hartman. He was not on his best behavior when debuting at this level at Churchill last month. The figure came back relatively competitive for this group. He has the best Tomlinson Figure in the field and I do believe he’ll improve at two turns. 

Race 3:

11 runners are set to travel ¾ of a mile in this $12,500 maiden claimer. The morning line favorite is Phenomenal Dream (#2), who is 0-17 with only three third place finishes on his resume. He looks like a horse that all too often leaves himself too much work to do. He’s strictly an underneath horse for me in this one. Air It Out (#10) is another professional maiden, but he at least ran a career top figure in the slop when going a one turn mile against a good maiden special weight at Churchill June. He was claimed by Steve Asmussen and hasn’t been as sharp in his last few. He figures to be the one to beat. There’s a pair of firsters running side by side with Brother Evan (#3) and Love in Lights (#4). Love in Lights is likely to garner more wagering attention with the brand name of Ken McPeek as the trainer. However, his works are comparable to those of Brother Evan. The dam has produced some horses that have been productive in dirt sprints. Harry Hernandez has ridden well here, notching his third victory of the meet yesterday. At 20-1 on the morning line, compared to 5-1, Brother Evan seems like the play that offers better value. I’ll still back up with Love in Lights and I’ll do the same with Non Fungible (#1). This Get Stormy colt was a disaster in three starts last fall as a two year old. He has been working well in the morning, which has to account for something with this uninspiring group. Perhaps he’s grown up some over the last year. 

Race 4:

Three year olds and up will go six furlongs in this $20,000-$17,500 N1X claiming race. Horses that have not won a race in five months are eligible here. (Winners of races with a tag of $16K or less are not included in that condition). I Got No Munny (#1) is the first repeat player of the meet, running back eight days after finishing second here on Opening Day. He drops in class to restricted claiming company after several close calls in open company. He ran into trouble in his lone try in the mud, but I don’t see that effort as a reason to downgrade him in this spot. Ben Diesel (#4) was 1-18 when Michael Rone took over his training. Since then, he’s 3-7, finishing in the money in all seven starts in Ohio. He’s 0-13 on this course, but almost all of those efforts came in stakes and allowance races. Martin Chaun, who had a riding double on opening day, gets the mount for the first time. W W Crazy (#8) is one to possibly upgrade on an off track. His last few efforts weren’t great. However, his last start in the mud was a strong race at Ellis in August. He does have a win in eight tries on this course, and getting Cristian Torres, who was a three time winner yesterday, certainly won’t hurt his chances. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends with a $20K N2L claiming race for Arkansas breds going six furlongs. I find these races quite challenging, because so many are coming off layoffs. If you believe in historical trends, Street Commander (#10) might be one to upgrade in this spot. Many of his rivals are working significantly slower than he has been, while gearing up for his first start since the end of April. He was sharper in his first two starts in races like this last year. He can handle an off track and this is the site on his only win. Ryno Wrecker (#3) feels like the one to beat. Like Ben Diesel in the previous race, he’s a runner that has significantly improved in Ohio while running for Michael Rone. He has three strong efforts, including his maiden breaking effort in open company at Mahoning Valley last month. He ran a career top figure on the slop. I think he’ll be bet down under 2-1, which is a little unsettling for anyone at this level. While there is a chance for regression, he’s been too good to ignore lately. Blessed Vision (#11) is another runner with some recency in his form, which may be a plus with this group. I don’t think this is his best distance, so I might lean on him a little more underneath, however, his last two tries on dirt at Delta weren’t bad. He was a maiden winner on this course at two turns in the slop. 

Race 6: 

We’ll start the Late Pick-5 with $16K claimer for fillies and mares going six furlongs. This is another race where I see the morning line favorite having a significant edge over the rest of the field. Atlantic Strike (#1) has three wins in his last four starts and now makes his first start off the Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez claim at Remington last month. He has 9 wins in 23 career starts. Six of those scores have been on synthetic, but he’s 3-7 on dirt, finishing off the board in only one of those tries. He’s led gate to wire in his last two tries and I assume that is the likely gambit that will give him the best shot to score here. I’m not expecting a great price, but I’d be fine using him as a single in this sequence, while hoping to grab value in spots. Ship It (#2) in the stall next door figures to provide the stiffest challenge to the favorite. He’s one that should be upgraded on an off track.  He came up empty in his last start at Fanduel Racing, but his effort two back there in the slop was very good. 

Race 7: 

13 two year olds flooded the entry box for this maiden special weight sprint for two year olds where as many as 12 will start. Broduer (#9) is the top pick in this race, making his second career start for Mark Casse. Casse is keeping a string here at Oaklawn for the first time since I’ve been covering this track. He scored twice yesterday, which is certainly a positive moving into today. That was a fast race he’s coming out of at Churchill, so I do think he can fit in with this field. Casse has strong numbers with second time starters and there’s some good things with his pedigree moving forward. He’s a half to Conquest Warrior, who was 4th behind Fierceness when he dominated the Florida Derby last month. That one debuted in a fast race and then took a step forward to break his maiden in his second career start. The dam herself was a multiple stakes-winning sprinter who was also a winner on her second try. I think with both El Prestigio (#2) and Motel Patel (#3) coming out of a strong shared race in the slop that same week at Churchill, they’ll be more likely to take the bulk of the attention at the windows. At 10-1 or better on Broduer, I’ll definitely be making a nice win bet. I’ll be using both Prestigio and Motel Patel, giving the slight preference to Motel Patel. He was spinning his heels just a bit in a five furlong dash, but he was running well enough to hold third. Hartman’s horses often improve in their second try, and I think the added furlong should work in his favor. Prestigio has some solid figures in four starts. He’s been second three times, so taking a short price on that one is less than ideal. He’s been competitive on off tracks, which certainly could be a plus in a race like this. On deeper tickets and underneath, I’ll try Trigger Point (#10). The pedigree history with this one suggests he’ll need a start, and the limited work line may back that up. However, John Ortiz is a capable trainer at first asking. He’s a full brother to Vivar, who was much better on turf. He’ll likely be overlooked, but if he makes a nice visual impression on the track, I’d think about including him on a few tickets. 

Race 8: 

We have a $50K starter allowance for horses that are also still eligible for the N1X condition. B Sudd (#2) towers over this field in terms of speed figures and class. However, it’s never comfortable taking a short price on a 2-22 horse that is also 0-9 at the six furlong distance of this race. He’s earned nearly $300K in earnings on the track, but he’s not a frequent visitor to the Winner’s Circle, perhaps because he’s not the strongest finisher. He’s probably the most likely winner of this race, and I’ll use him, but I’m going to try a bomb as a top pick. Googol Joke (#3) is better than his last few tries. He was third behind Valentine Candy in the Renaissance Stakes in third career start last year. He had a rougher trip in the Ozark Stakes against a saltier field in the mud in February. He faltered at two turns in March before going to the sidelines until October. He resurfaced at Keeneland in a seven furlong race at this level at Keeneland. He was about 20 lengths behind B Sudd in that race, but he clearly needed that race off the break and coming back in a seven furlong spot is not the easiest task. The blinkers come off and he’s been gelded for the first time since his last start. I think there’s some upside with this three year old. 

Race 9, The $150K Mistletoe Stakes:

Both Stellar Lily (#4) and Corningstone (#5) were cross-entered in the She’s All In Stakes last night at Remington, but both runners defected from that spot, presumably in favor of this one. I think Tapit Jenallie (#2)is an interesting longshot in this race. She’sa well bred three year old filly that was improving as the meet went on here over the winter. She was off for almost seven months and came back with a dull effort when sprinting at Keeneland. She looked better in allowance company in her last start in Indiana when losing to In Just My Heels. Her best two races were on sloppy courses and I think she’s at her best when stalking the early pace. With Stellar Lily and Deck of Cards (#6) likely to battle for the lead, I think Emmanuel Esquivel can sit a nice trip in behind those runners. She runs without Lasix today, but that was not an issue for her in the past. I see her as a live longshot in this one. I do think Deck of Cards will be able to put away Stellar Lily when they turn for home in this one mile contest. She was an impressive gate to wire winner at this distance at Saratoga three starts back. She is coming off a dull effort last out in Indiana when sprinting six furlongs. That effort snapped a seven race win streak for this Nyquist mare. Ramon Vazquez had two winners yesterday and looks to be battling with Cristian Torres for leading jockey at the meet right from the jump this year. He was aboard for her last three wins and he’ll return aboard her today. Taxed (#7) is the morning line favorite, but I don’t love her last few efforts and an off track is a bit of a question mark, should that be the case today. Instead, I’ll back up with Corningstone (#5) for Ken McPeek. She was a bit flat in state bred stakes company last out as the beaten 1-5 favorite. She was sharper in the Grade 2 Locust Grove two starts back, finishing second to Musical Mischief at 43-1. Others may have a higher ceiling, but she is consistent, and she has been good enough to win open allowance races at both Churchill and Keeneland. 

Race 10: 

We’ll close things out with a N1X allowance race at six furlongs. I’m not loving the two shortest prices on the morning line in this race. Goodasiwonwas (#3) was huge at Churchill last out, stopping the clock in 1:08:1, but I’m not convinced he can run back to that number a few weeks later. Gunflash (#10) has some nice efforts at Remington, but he hasn’t been nearly as productive here. Instead, I’ll make  W W Scout’s Honor (#2) the top pick. He was competitive at this level last year and is now making his third start off the layoff for Scott Becker. He’s won 9 of 26 races in his career and his last two efforts were strong. I think he has a strong chance with this group. Gold Sweep (#4) is looking to be the first winner of this young meet for last year’s training title winner, Steve Asmussen. He was ultra impressive in June of 2023 when dominating the Tremont Stakes as a maiden. He’s never run back to that effort, but his figures have been trending in the right direction of late. He’s staying at the same level, but I don’t think this field is as tough as the last few at Churchill. The pedigree has always been there and the Tomlinson Figure is strong. Mumayaz (#1) and Manta Ray (#5)are some deeper plays in this spot. Mumayaz is another runner that has failed to have success here at Oaklawn, despite running solid races elsewhere. However, he was competitive here at times, when facing some salty fields. He was a winner in the slop three back at Churchill, so an off track wouldn’t be the worst thing for him. Manta Ray scored his only win in 12 career starts here at Oaklawn on a sloppy and sealed course. His recent form leaves something to be desired, however, he was definitely running better races here. We saw a few horses already that have quickly reverted back to their best form when returning here, so at 20-1, I’d be willing to think that could be the case with him. His best might only be good enough for a minor award, but that’s the kind of horse that could blow up some vertical wagers. 

Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)

2024-25 Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 6/30 (20%, $82.40, $2.75 ROI)