Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 1/1/24 – By Eric Solomon

Happy birthday to all thoroughbreds and Happy New Year to all handicappers! The first program of 2024 at Oaklawn is a 10 race card, highlighted by the first Derby Points race of 2024, the Smarty Jones Stakes. This is the first of a four race series that will culminate with the Arkansas Derby on March 30th. First post today is 12:30 (CT). 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

I think Shezz Koldazice (#3) has a big chance in the opener for Joel Rosario and Mike Maker. Rosario was riding with supreme confidence yesterday, winning three times in his first time at Oaklawn this season. This mare is coming off a 5th place finish in the Grade 3 Falls City Stakes at Churchill at the end of their 2023 season. Prior to that, she just missed at this level at Keeneland. There’s not a ton of early speed signed on and she has enough tactical speed to make her own trip. Stoic Luna (#2) figures to be the main danger, shipping in from California for Michael Hewitt. She can run on any surface, so switching back to traditional dirt shouldn’t be an issue for her/ She had five wins in 2023, and can string them together once she gets rolling. She might need this race to get acclimated to her new surroundings, but I think she’s professional enough to consider using in this spot. 

Race 2:

A dozen Arkansas breds will sprint six furlongs in this $25K starter allowance contest. Lochmoor (#6) had a solid four race campaign here last season, winning with $30K starter allowance company when coming off a similar layoff as today. He was very good with fellow Arky Breda, with his only off the board effort coming in open allowance company. If he can run back to any of his 2023 races here, I think he’ll have his picture taken. Reef’s Destiny (#1) and Macho Ronnie (#5) are both interesting longshots that could add value to the vertical exotics in this race. Reef’s Destiny came back from a five month layoff last month and was 10th when facing a solid open N1X allowance field. He takes a significant drop in class for his second start off the layoff. This nine year old gelding was a winner on this course in a state bred race last season and he could certainly move forward to get a piece with this group. Macho Rocco was claimed by Genaro Garcia for $20K when he last ran at Churchill in November. He has good numbers first off the claim, winning with 20% of those runners in the last two years. I expect to see him improve off his last effort as well. 

Race 3:

Three year old fillies will go six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming contest. I’m going to ride with three of the second time starters on the A line and use Catty Cruise (#6) as the top pick. She is coming out of the toughest race, facing maiden special foes here in her debut last month. Her dam has had four other foals to race. Two of them were winners in their second career starts and a third won on debut. Harry Hernandez won 23% of his races in 2023 with most of his races coming in Arizona, Minnesota, and Oklahoma. He’s looking to build enough business to make staying here over the winter worthwhile. I think this filly has a sneaky chance in this race. Lastchancesaloon (#4) debuted at Fanduel Racing in maiden allowance company for Scoot Becker. She opened up a lead, but tired in the late stages of that 5 ½ furlong contest, finishing third. I know most of Becker’s stats come against inferior competition, but his 44% figure with maidens starting for the second time tells me that his horses are well spotted and they typically improve from start one to start two. Global Risk (#12) debuted at this level in the mud two weeks ago and finished an even 4th when running for Brad Cox. She was privately purchased after the race after she wasn’t claimed that day. Wade Rarick takes over the training for Michelle Riggs. Lasix is added and she’s drawn the outside post once again. I could see her improving enough to get the job done here. No Pay No Hay (#9) is the morning line favorite for Robertino Diodoro, whose barn is off to a bit of a slow start at this meet. She ran well at Remington in her debut and followed that up with a solid try in a turf sprint there. Her last effort at the end of October wasn’t her best. He gave her a little time off and brings her back at this level, where she does appear to fit. I’ll use her as a backup because I think she’ll hover around her 5-2 morning line figure when all is said and done, and I’d rather not take that short of a price on anyone in this race. 

Race 4:

$24K-$18K N2L claimers are sprinting six furlongs in this race. This seems like a strange spot Stud Lovin (#8) to resurface. He looked promising when winning his debut by over seven lengths in the summer of 2022 at Ellis. He was second in his next start at Kentucky Downs and then went to the sidelines. He returned to run off the board races at Churchill in allowance company in the spring, but it seemed he was getting things turned around in his last three starts, finishing in the money each time, including a third place finish in a stakes race at Parx in August. He’s been away for four months, so physical ailments continue to linger. The N1X level is very tough at this circuit, so perhaps they’re trying to sneak him in this spot to get him eligible for some starter allowance races. I’ll use him as a saver because he is the class of this field, but I’ll try to beat him. I think Mahoney Road (#5) is another interesting longshot that Harry Hernandez gets to ride. He was claimed for $20K last out where he didn’t run a step. I’m willing to chalk that up to not liking the sloppy course. He was caught late when facing $16K N2L claimers at Churchill two starts back. Coty Rosin has good numbers first off the claim and I think this runner’s versatility is also a plus. Steve Asmussen claimed Vale (#6) last out for $16K at Churchill in a race where he was caught late. Asmussen’s barn is on a roll, winning four races yesterday to put some distance between him and the rest of the pack in the trainer standings. He claimed this horse before, trying him on the turf at Ellis in his lone start of this barn. He wasn’t terrible that day, but I think he prefers the dirt. He’s one that could be beat the favorite, even if that one runs his best race. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 ends with beaten $10K claimers going 1 1/16 miles. How you play this race depends on how you feel about the even money favorite on the morning line, Royal Act (#3). You’ll see that he was purchased for a half-million dollars back in 2018, however, Jerry Caroom was not the original owner. He ran for a $50K tag five times at Santa Anita from November 2022 through March 2023 (after he was gelded). He appears to have been a private purchase after his 3/31 race where he was moved from Peter Eurton’s barn to Robertino Diodoro’s barn. He has run twice for his new connections, finishing off the board both times. He’s a seven year old gelding who seems to have had some nagging ailments, as he’s only started 18 times. My guess is that since there were no takers on this horse for $50K, the private purchase price was lower than that, making this drop in class a lot more tolerable than it first appeared. His worst race on the dirt would likely be good enough to beat this bunch. However, I don’t love that he hasn’t recorded a workout in almost a full month. For the most part, the positives outweigh the negatives, so I’m not going to spread deep to try to beat him. However, I think there’s one runner in here that could be sneaky enough to beat him on his best day, and that’s That Khenny (#2). There is very little early speed signed on for this race, so Martin Chuan should have no problem putting this one on the lead. He’s sprinted in his last two starts, running poorly both times. Last time out, he ran into Therideofalifetime, who was another suspect dropper at this level that towered over that field. He was never involved that day, finishing at the back of the pack. He is at his absolute best when he can set an easy tempo on the front end. I think he’s quick enough to clear I’m Crenshaw (#1) to his inside, and if he does, I think he’ll take them as far as he can for as long as he can. If he’s hovering around his 20-1 morning line figure, I think he’s worth taking a shot with. 

Race 6: 

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $30K N3L claiming race which drew another full field. I see there being a decent amount of speed signed on with both Sea Pearl (#10) and Wings From Above (#11) entered in this race, both trying the traditional dirt for the first time. I think there are some others that are going to force the issue and I’m not sure how much either runner will have left in the tank for the stretch drive. Shell Shock (#8) is a rebound candidate for me. She ran in a four horse race at Churchill at a level similar to this. She broke awkwardly and took a hard bump at the same time in the first few steps out of the gate. It took her a little while to find her best stride as the other three runners opened up a double-digit length lead on her. She ran on gamely to narrow the margin, but never got out of 4th that day. I’m willing to toss that effort completely, and the fact that she returns at the same level is encouraging. I’m looking for a better effort from her today. Punchy Girl (#7) drops in class after losing to Margoinabubblebath last time at Churchill. That one came back to beat a nice N1X field on Opening Weekend here. She was a state bred stakes winner here in 2022 and after some time away, she looks like she’s starting to get back to some of her better form. Asmussen sends out the top pick and he also sends out Vow (#12) for MyRaceHorse. Joel Rosario picking up the mount is certainly not a bad thing after his big afternoon yesterday. She’s been flat in her last few starts, and the synthetic at Turfway didn’t wake her up much. She has run well here in the past so I could see her moving up a bit today. I do think she’ll be overbet though, so she’s more a saver for me in this spot, unless we’re able to get a bigger price than her 4-1 morning line. 

Race 7:

$50K three year old maiden claimers are going one mile here in the first leg of the Late Pick-4. I’m willing to forgive the dull effort from Rivetage (#8) last out with maiden special weight types. He sat too far off an aggressive pace and had no answer once the top two runners kicked clear. Lasix is added and Francisco Arrieta, who is a little more aggressive than Leparoux (who rides another McPeek horse in this race) gets the assignment. Crusading (#1) ran okay to be 4th with $75K maiden claimers two weeks ago, and now Asmussen hands the reins to Rosario. He continues to get a little bit better with each start and his rail draw should ensure a ground saving trip. I don’t see any real pace pressure for him, so he should get to run his race, assuming he;s good enough. Smackover Lime (#4) is a longer priced option that could offer a little interest at long odds. He debuted in a tough maiden special weight race at Keeneland where he wasn’t in the zip code as the top few runners. The winner of that race came back to win a stakes race at the Fair Grounds, so he clearly was up against a higher quality field. He’s a half to The Mary Rose, who was a multiple stakes winner in Arkansas bred company here. This one was bred in Kentucky, so the drop for a tag is not concerning. He’s bred to be better at two turns so the stretch out should also be favorable. He’s at 30-1 on the morning line, and at those odds, he’s worth a small shot. 

Race 8: 

There are plenty of viable options in the N1X allowance race. There is no shortage of early speed in this race and there will be more if Tee Burns (#13) gets in off the AE list. Mister Iceman (#11) was all about speed in his dirt races early in his career in Southern California. He came within 2 ¼ lengths of Havanameltdown. He broke his maiden when beating Carmel Road, who would win his next start and finish second in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. He went to the sidelines and wasn’t as effective when coming back on the dirt. Miller moved him to the grass, where he’s been competitive, but is still looking for that second win. I like the move back to the dirt and I think he can sit a nice trip, stalking the pacesetters from his outside draw. Conversely, I don’t love the draw or the price on Underhill’s Tab (#1), but I do think he stands a big chance in this race if he can get the right trip. He had some traffic woes when he finished 4th at this level last out. He’s starting inside of 11 other rivals here, so the traffic problems might still be present. Leparoux has worked out some crafty trips on this oval so far this season, so I like the rider switch. Sinner’s Sin (#5) wants to be on the lead, and assuming that Tee Burns doesn’t draw in, he may be quick enough to steal the lead. He was awesome this summer at Ellis, but he struggled in his last start in Indiana. His lone victory came on this oval last season, so perhaps he can return to his summer form here. I’ll likely downgrade his chances if Tee Burns runs, but if that one is out, I think he stands a better chance. If he starts, Tee Burns ran too good to lose at this level last out. He rebounded nicely after a dull effort in starter allowance company at Churchill two starts back. He strung together a bunch of wins this summer and his barn continues to have success at this meet. 

Race 9, The $300K Smarty Jones Stakes:

I wrote about this race in more detail on the ITM Road to the Kentucky Derby blog. I’ve linked below with horse by horse analysis and more detailed thoughts about how I see this race playing out. 

https://inthemoneypodcast.com/road-to-the-2024-kentucky-derby-the-300k-smarty-jones-stakes-by-eric-solomon/

I thought Catching Freedom (#2) was a good play in the Gun Runner last week. Cox scratched him in favor of this spot today and I think he fits like a glove with this field as well. He had a world of trouble last out, but still looked loaded. I think we’ll see a much better effort out of him today. Lagnyos (#3) and Fidget (#9) are backups for me, as I think both of these runners have some upside in here. 

Race 10: 

The week will wrap up with a state bred maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. Interestingly enough, on the first day of being eligible to run against older horses, Sky Raven (#1), who is also a filly taking on the boys, God’s Country (#10), and Secret Strategy (#12) are all entered today. God’s Country ran a good race when he was sent off as the post time favorite when facing two year olds on Opening Weekend. He had a sharp work in between starts and gets the meet’s leading rider, Emmanuel Esquivel, to ride once again. Even though he’s facing his elders, I don’t see this as a particularly deep field. If he moves forward a little bit off his last start, he feels like the most likely winner. Hess (#7) debuts in this race for Randy Morse and Randy Patterson. They also campaign his half-sister, Appealing Addie, who crushed a field in her debut on Opening Day here last month. His local works are not as sharp as his drills at Churchill this fall, but there’s enough there to take a chance with him. Time Andbeyond (#2) is the morning line favorite and he was sharp at this level last season here. He struggled a bit with open company at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs. Moquett goes back to Leparoux for his return to Arkansas. I think the top two picks have more upside than him, but if his odds float over there’s, I’d be willing to play him a little more prominently. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 18/80 (22.5%, $206.00, $2.58 ROI)