The first Saturday of the new meet offers a 10 race program headed by the Ring the Bell Stakes for three year olds and up, sprinting six furlongs. There’s no Sunday racing this weekend, but we’ll pick up with the regular three day a week racing schedule next week. First post today is 12:30 (CT) with the featured race scheduled for 4:14 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 1 | 1,5,7 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 1,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 1,2 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 6 | 1,6 | 7 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 12 | 12 | 1,8 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK5 |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 8 | 5 | 4,5 | 6,7 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | DBL | |
| 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
Race 1:
We get things started with a $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. This is a tricky race because it’s hard to get excited about backing the two shorter prices in this race, Boogie Woogie Gal (#7) and Foxy Zorra (#5). However, the alternatives aren’t very encouraging either. I think Boogie Woogie Gal is going straight to the lead from her outside draw and Foxy Zorra will try to track her. On her best day, Boogie Woogie Gal is probably faster than these. However, her three starts since coming off a long layoff haven’t been great. Her connections won a ton of races here last season, which is worth paying attention to. She’ll likely be overbet though. The same will likely be true with Foxy Zorra. People will see her trouble line at this level at Keeneland and likely forgive her dismal effort. I do think she’s better than that race, but I don’t think the trouble she had kept her from finishing in the money. She was sharper two back when coming off the layoff with $50K maiden claimers at Churchill. Perhaps we’ll see a step forward off the claim. Both are going to be A line plays for me, but I’ll try the Remington Park invader, Lil Knockout (#1) as the top pick. Her last two starts on the dirt were decent, finishing third with $30K maiden claimers at Prairie Meadows and second with $10K maiden claimers in Oklahoma. The grass experiment in her most recent start was a failure, and I’m not crazy about the three month gap in between starts. However, I do think both the favorites will be struggling to find their best stride in the final furlong and she might be able to grind past them.
Race 2:
Beaten $10K claimers will sprint six furlongs in the first leg of the Early Pick-4. (Watch track profile Friday). This race oversubscribed and has been split into two divisions with the second one coming up in the 4th race today. In this eight horse field, Mr Puk (#1) and Principe Carlo (#4) are the two prime speed threats. I don’t trust Principe Carlo to be able to keep pace with Mr Puk, but I’m not fully convinced that Mr Puk is going to be able to hold the lead in the stretch either. I do think Mr Puk is worth using, because I think that he can rebound from his last start, he’s going to be very tough. It’s also worth noting that while he’s dropping out of N2X allowance company in Indiana, he’s running for a comparable purse here with beaten $10K claimers. However, I think Stand Proud (#8) stands to get the run of the race from the outside stall. After losing his first nine starts, he came back to win impressively in two tries at Louisiana Downs this summer. Ernie Witt was the trainer of record when he came back from nearly a year long layoff and dominated a $20K maiden claiming group there. He was equally as impressive when scoring with a $30K N2L claiming field in his next start. He faltered against a decent allowance field at Lone Star when Sarah Davidson was listed as the trainer. He’s back with Witt and drops in class for his first start here since the spring of 2023. He was competitive in six starts, finishing in the money five times during the 2022-23 meet. This gelding has been a little slower in those last three races since coming back from a lengthy absence, however, I do think those Louisiana efforts were good enough to compete with this group.
Race 3:
Two year old $30K maiden claimers will go six furlongs here. Maxi Boots (#7) feels like the one to beat, making his debut for Chris Hartman in this race. The runners with experience haven’t shown much. This Maximus Mischief colt has been working well enough at Churchill in the mornings. Hartman has won with three of 21 two year old first time starters in maiden claiming races in the last five years (14%), but he’s won with two of his last seven runners in that category. Tip Top Joe (#1) improved from a figure standpoint when returning in the slop last month at Churchill. The course was extremely sloppy on a miserable weather day in Louisville. He’s been bad from the gate so the rail is not ideal. However, Francisco Arrieta taking the mount for Vance feels like a positive for this class dropper that should go off at odds longer than his 8-1 morning line number. Staygoldponyboy (#2) has six career starts and has been generally consistent in those races. He was moved to Tom Amoss’ barn and he ran a career top speed figure while dropping in for a tag at Churchill for the first time. This is a softer field and there’s reason to believe that he could move forward a little bit more in this spot.
Race 4:
The second heat of the beaten $10K claimer drew nine runners. I think there’s some value to be had with Pico d’Oro (#6) in this race, listed at 20-1 on the morning line. He’s dropping out of a tougher race at Keeneland where he finished last of eight that day. That was not an easy track to close on, and he didn’t have the best trip. He was moving with some degree of interest before getting blocked and having to shift out into the eight path. He leveled off late on a day where he was coming back to a sprint after four straight turf races. He ran a sharp race against a better field here in February when making his only start here in his career. He’s only 2-43, so I’d make sure that there’s decent value. However, the morning line favorite, Afternoon Heat (#3), who I’ll be trying to beat, is only 3-48. Axton (#1) drops to the lowest level in his career today. Most recently, he finished 4th in a N1X allowance race at Remington, beaten three lengths. He was a winner there with $30K N2L claiming company two back. He’s making his third start off a layoff and his third start since joining Mason’s barn. This is probably where he fits locally. I don’t think he has the highest ceiling, but he’s more consistent than most in here. Pinky Ring Bling (#7) is another Remington invader, dropping in for a tag for the first time in a while. He’s been living in starter allowance company on lesser circuits, so he’s actually running for a larger purse than most of his races this year. He’s another consistent runner and he’ll benefit from getting last year’s leading rider, Cristian Torres in the irons.
Race 5:
Arkansas breds will go six furlongs in this $20K maiden claiming race, which drew an overflow field of 14. As per usual at Oaklawn, 12 runners will be the maximum number of starters. I’m going to try back to back 20-1 longshots on top here, with Yeagers Strategy (#12) as the pick. He ran a strong race on debut last December on this oval, closing fast despite having traffic issues at multiple points in the race. I counted three times where he lost position due to traffic trouble, but he still kept firing to finish 3rd, beaten less than a length. He faced two year olds that day, but was tasked with facing older foes in his next three starts. He faced better fields and had some excuses for some dull efforts. He’s making his first start since March, now at the end of his three year old season. He runs for Dewaine Loy for the time and he has strong numbers with new acquisitions. Francisco Arrieta gets the call here for the first time. The outside draw should work to his advantage after some bad traffic races and getting sandwiched hard at the break in his last start. Willie Cat (#8) is another longer priced runner that might be a decent play in this spot. He debuted in March against state bred maiden special weight types. He’s another runner that was a young three year old (that wasn’t quite three yet) when debuting against older runners. He came up empty in a solid race for the condition, finishing last of 12 that day. He gets Lasix and blinkers for the first time today, while also likely getting a fast track for the first time today. This barn is capable of winning with runners off the layoff and I think he’s going to show more in this spot today. Get Away With It (#1). He ran last month at Horseshoe Indianapolis, making his first start since the last day of the meet here in May. He might be better at two turns, but his speed figure at six furlongs last month suggests that he can hang at this distance with this level. He’s not the most consistent type, so taking 4-1 on a runner that has not backed up bigger efforts in the past is a little worrisome. He is getting notable class relief though while dropping back to this level.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-5 begins with a six furlong N1X allowance race for fillies and mares. I like Edistrudis (#3) quite a bit in this race. She makes her second start off the layoff and her first start off the Cipriano Contreras claim. She was a sharp winner at the end of the 2023 Horseshoe Indianapolis meet. She was overlooked when entered a race at this level here last December and she ran huge to be second at 42-1. She followed up that race with a credible effort in the Mockingbird Stakes here in January. She was overmatched in February when trying two turns for the first time in the Honeybee Stakes, but she went to the sidelines right after that race. She came back in a $62,500 beaten claiming race at Keeneland where she was claimed with this meet in mind. She’s worked well and has now had six weeks with her new connections. This barn was very sharp first off the claim last season and this would be a strong way to start off this new meet. Lite It Up Louie (#7) was about five lengths better than the top pick in the same race at Keeneland last out. She caught fire this summer at Churchill and Canterbury, winning three straight races. Her local races last season weren’t great, but she’s a better filly since the Coty Rosin claim. This is her best distance and she has a running style that should serve her well with this field. Theresasilverlinin (#12) is the 5-2 morning line favorite because she was red hot in two races here and at Churchill this spring. She posted huge wins with monster Beyer figures in those spots. Her last three efforts haven’t been nearly as strong though. She doesn’t need her best to win here, but she does to be better than those races. I hate the 5-2 number, but I’ll use her as a deeper saver since she ran so well here in April.
Race 7:
The Late Pick-4 starts with a $10K starter allowance race for three year olds and up, sprinting 5 ½ furlongs. This race is for horses that have started at least one time for a $10K claiming tag or less since 1/1/23. What makes these races so challenging is trying to guess which version of some of these horses are going to show up. You have horses like Like a Saltshaker (#3) and Atomic Tone (#7), who both have enviable winning percentages and are capable of running big races. However, when they don’t win, they typically run dull races. There’s not a lot of rhyme or reason in they’re running lines to indicate when one of their off days is imminent. Like a Saltshaker has two wins in a row and has won 17 of 38 career starts. He’s only won three races in a row once in his career. He was all out when winning two back when he was a little bit off his game. He’s versatile to handle the distance and whatever kind of trip comes his way. Atomic Tone typically wins the races he should win, but when he’s up against tougher competition, he tends to falter. He has 10 wins, but the longest win odds in those 10 races was 8-5. He was a heavy favorite in eight of those ten wins and a narrow second choice in the other two. He’s been a beaten favorite at sub even money odds in two of his last four starts, telling me that he is not at the top of his current form cycle. He’s a pass for me. Instead, I’ll opt to use Phillipsburg (#2) as a longer priced backup in this one. He’s 2-2 since moving to Armando Hernandez’s barn. He’s been a little erratic in the stretch in his last two wins at Fanduel Racing, but he was much the best in both spots. He moves back up in class, and he fits well with this group. I think some might be a little faster, but there’s more upside with this lightly raced five year old gelding than some of the others here.
Race 8:
A field of nine are entered in this restricted maiden special weight contest for two year olds going six furlongs. Horses that were sold for $75K or less or RNA are eligible for this race. The morning line suggests that the first time starters are better suited to win this race as opposed to the three runners in the field with some racing experience. However, I do think the effort from Hola Joey (#5) in the slop at Remington was encouraging. He broke slowly and then settled off the pace. He came with a wide bid and was moving well late once he switched leads. Horses coming from Remington haven’t done great when shipping her in the past, so I’ll need every bit of his 10-1 morning line odds to get on board with playing him in this spot. I do think he’ll benefit from his educational debut. Gene Jacquot has decent numbers with a limited sample of second time starters and Alberto Pusac started off the meet with a win in the first race of the season yesterday. Tango Mike Mike (#4) debuts for Kenny McPeek in this spot. I feel like this is a horse that was bookmarked for this kind of race at this meet. He was a $65K purchase (13X the stud fee for his sire, Enticed). The restricted maiden special weight races in Kentucky are for horses that were sold for $50K or RNA, meaning that he would not have been eligible for those. He went to Keeneland to begin more serious preparations for racing, but he didn’t begin to ramp up his morning efforts until he came here in November. The dam has foaled a debut winner and while this barn isn’t great with debut runners, they are certainly capable. Cox and Asmussen will send out runners that will likely be vying for favoritism. Cox has Magic Mover (#6) with Ramon Vazquez and Asmussen sends out Quality Style (#7) with Erik Asmussen in the irons. Both horses sold for amounts below their sires’ stud fees. Magic Mover is the first foal to race from a mare that was winless in three career starts. Quality Style was foaled by Teen Pauline, who was a Grade 2 winner. Her half brother was a winner here in his second career start, but none of her offspring have turned out to be stakes quality. Perhaps with the dam’s racing record, it’s a little more concerning that this colt only sold for $70K. I’ll backup with both as strictly connections plays here, but I think there’s value in trying to play against both of these runners.
Race 9: The $150K Ring the Bell Stakes:
The first race on the road to the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap at the end of the meet drew a field of seven. Disco Ball (#4) ran a big race on Sunday at Churchill, earning his 5th straight win for David Jacobsen. He is known to run his horses back on short rest, but I do wonder whether or not this one starts in this race. He is the speed of the speed here and while I prefer others, his presence, or lack thereof, will have an impact on this race in terms of the pace scenario. Either way, I think this is a great spot for Gulfport (#6) to keep on rolling. He showed a ton of promise as a two year old, but went to the sidelines for over a year after a rough outing in the Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland in April of 2023. He returned this June at Churchill and has since run three big races, including his most recent score in the Bet On Sunshine Stakes last month. He makes his third start of this current form cycle for Asmussen, who was the leading trainer here last season. He’ll have to prove that he can win outside of Churchill, however, those other four races came against salty competition in New York and his lone start in 2023 where something clearly was amiss. Erik Asmussen got the mount on him last out and his strong ride earned him the return call in this stakes spot today for his proud Poppa. Happy Is a Choice (#1) is the logical alternative in this spot. He’s listed as the morning line favorite after a smashing score in the Louisville Thoroughbred Society Stakes in September. He’s been on the shelf since that race though. He cleared both the first and second level allowance conditions on this oval at this distance last season. I do wonder if he’s going to be better in his next start though.
Race 10:
A dozen two year olds will go one mile in this maiden special weight contest that will wrap up the week of racing in Hot Springs. It’s hard to argue with breeding with Mischievous Intent (#5). He’s sired by Into Mischief and he’s the first foal to race from the multiple Grade 1 winning mare, Guarana. Winchell Thoroughbreds and Hill N Dale dropped the gavel at $1,400,000 for this colt. He debuted in a seven furlong race at Churchill last month. He broke well, but dropped off a contentious early pace, settling in 5th place. He appeared to be going the wrong way on the turf, but he slipped through the rail and made a bold bid before fading late. I think it was a useful debut and he’s worked well twice over this course since traveling south for the winter. I think he’s more interesting than either of the Cox first time starters. I see him as the one to beat in this race. The backup for me in this race is Putting Eagle (#1) making his third career start for Chris Hartman. He paired his first two Beyer Figures in six furlong maiden special weight races at Churchill. He stretches out to a mile for his third career try. Hartman had a lot of success with Bejarano here last season and I think the rail trip should be beneficial for him in this race. He’s the first foal to race from an unraced Bernardini dam, but his grand dam was a Grade 1 winner.
Final 2023-24 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 129/581 (22.2%, $1,179.60, $2.03 ROI)
2024-25 Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 1/10 (10%, $9.20, $0.92 ROI)
