Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 2/11/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s a nine race card on this Super Bowl Sunday that will start at the usual 12:30 (CT) and end about 40 minutes before kickoff. There’s more rain in the forecast this afternoon after a wet Saturday. I’ll be handicapping for another off track in Arkansas today. We’ll be back for a four day race week next week for the President’s Day Holiday. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Fillies and mares, three and up, will go one mile in this maiden special weight race that starts the day. This is a tricky race because there’s not really any early speed signed on, and not many obvious candidates to dictate the tempo here. I landed on Chelsea Pier (#2), making her third career start and her first on the dirt. This will also be her first try at two turns. She’s sired by Arrogate, so there’s reason to believe that she is going to be more effective in longer races. The dam was based in Europe and her pedigree definitely leans toward turf. This filly has the best Tomlinson Figure in the field, which could come in handy if she takes to the local surface. She makes her second start off a lengthy layoff and her second start for Cherie DeVaux. Ruby Dream (#4) is one of a trio of three year old fillies taking on older fillies and mares in this spot. She was closing well to be second by less than a length in her first local start, which came in the mud in December. The winner of that race came back to win the Mockingbird Stakes last month, which is likely why she has been installed as the morning line favorite. You could argue that had she not had to tap on the brakes when her hole along the rail closed up, she would have been the winner. I don’t love her as the favorite, as she is taking on older horses early in the season. Her dam broke her maiden on this oval and her sire won the Arkansas Derby here. As she stretches out to two turns, she could very well be the lone pacesetter in this spot. K’antheia (#3) came up empty in the stretch when making her first start since April. She has gone two turns twice already, so the distance is not a concern. She was third with a tougher bunch at Keeneland two back and, while she faltered as the favorite last out, that was certainly an effort that she could build off of. 

Race 2:

Fillies and mares run six furlongs in this state bred $20K N3L claiming contest. The last two winners of the Rainbow Miss Stakes square off in here, and I think those are the two to beat. Punchy Girl (#10) faltered against open $50K starter allowance foes when making her first start of the meet last month. She has fared well against fellow Arky breds in the past, winning twice here in 2022. She missed almost all of the 22-23 meet, so she hasn’t faced state bred company since a strong effort in allowance company back in December 2022. She’s proven that she can rebound after dull efforts and I think we’ll see a much better version of herself at this level. She’s Storming (#8) won the Rainbow Miss in 2023, which was four starts ago. She has been beaten by double digit lengths in her last three starts though. Those fields were significantly better than this group, so the class relief, coupled with the fact that she’s making her third start off the layoff, should make her tough in here. Bennykayandsuzytoo (#9) is the morning line favorite in this race. I prefer the other two, especially if they are longer odds than she is in the pari-mutuel wagering. Her best weapon is her early speed, but we haven’t seen her best early foot in a while now. If she can come out running, she’s dangerous, but I suspect she’s lost a step. 

Race 3:

This optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance features the return of Booth (#2), who posted a monster 96 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut when he beat Nash by five lengths. That one went on to break his maiden by double digit lengths in his next start. Booth came back in the Ed Brown Stakes where he faltered as the favorite. Just Steel won that race, and he’s been competitive in some Derby Points races since that race. However, I’m concerned that he’s more of a one-hit wonder. He’s been working slowly at the Fair Grounds, and that has not been his M.O. His works before his big debut effort at Keeneland and his last race were significantly better than what he’s been up to in the mornings in New Orleans. He was scratched out of the Mockingbird Stakes at the end of December, a race which his stablemate won. Asmussen opted not to run him against Valentine Candy in the Ozark Stakes yesterday, and while that colt is very nice, there’s nothing freakish about him. He’s going to be a deep saver for me in this race as I’m going to try to beat him on most tickets. I think Chris Hartman is holding a pair of aces in this race, and I like Andy’s Candy (#5) a decent amount in this race. He was third behind Valentine Candy when that one took off in the Advent Stakes three starts back. He ran into Carbone when trying two turns at this level at the end of December. He made an early move and hit the front, only to give up the lead late a few weeks back when going one mile again. I like the cutback for him and I think both Booth and Texas Town (#6) are going to be knocking heads early. I think he’ll be rolling late. Axel Concepion, who was trying to get some mounts here a few weeks ago, should be making his long awaited Oaklawn debut today. Texas Town was very good when debuting on Opening Day. Hartman also trains him and he’s waited two months for his encore performance. I think Booth being entered in this race makes his life a lot tougher, but he does have the best Tomlinson Figure in the field. His connections paid $250K for him and the first two runners from this dam are also loaded with early speed. Landeros picked this one, but I think his best chance of winning is Booth staying in New Orleans. Let’s Go Mark (#7) is the most experienced runner in this field, making his 10th career start today. John Ennis opted to scratch from the Ozark yesterday in favor of this spot. His last two races at Turfway have been strong, however, they are in line with his progression of speed figures in one turn races on the dirt, so I think he can be right in the mix with these. I do worry that he’s going to be too close to the fire, while chasing both of the lightly raced speedballs. However, he did rate kindly beating $50K claimers earlier in his career. He cleared the N1X condition at Turfway two back, so he is entered with the $100K tag here. 

Race 4:

Three year olds will go  1 1/16 miles in this $30K maiden claiming race. This race is wide open with several horses that are all hovering around the same speed figures, and of the 43 combined races from the 12 runners in this field, only one time did a horse finish within three lengths or less of the winner. I landed on Famous FInal Scene (#2) in this race. He’s making his 4th career start and his first while running with a tag. He’s been off the board in three strong maiden special weight races here and at Churchill. His effort two back wasn’t terrible and he finished in front of Rivetage (#7), who is a much shorter price than he is on the morning line. He pushed a solid tempo against much better horses last time and fell flat, finishing last of the 12 at 86-1. The class relief should be appreciated and drawing near the rail should ensure minimal ground loss, which certainly could be a factor in a field where there’s not much separating these runners. While many of the runners are dropping in class, Midnight Til Dawn (#1) is actually moving up in class, coming from $25K maiden claimers at Horseshoe Indianapolis to this $30K level on a stronger circuit. He was given some time off after that effort, which was better than it looks on paper. He broke in the outside stall and was essentially four wide all the way around the first turn. The race winner rode the rail and was able to set a slow pace all the way around. To avoid going wide again, Rodney Prescott decided to move early to try to engage the eventual winner, but that one had more in the tank, and he faded to 4th. He’s been given 3 ½ months off and comes back for a barn that has been excellent at this meet and does very well off this type of layoff. He has some early speed from the rail and could be part of another dawdling pace, while having the better position this time though. Rivetage does have a pair of nice races on his six race resume, as he is the runner with the lone race that was close to the winner. He’s struggled in his two local tries, but he was overmatched against Searcy and next out winner Goldbrick two starts back. Last time out, he dropped in for a $50K tag. He was trying to tuck in after breaking well, but he was floated wide into the first turn. He was farther back than he wanted to be and was left with a lot of work to do. He came with a strong wide bid, but the winner pulled away with authority in that race. He closed well to come within ¾ of a length of the second place finisher, which tells me that he was still battling despite the fact the winner ran off the screen. Leparoux comes back today in a race where there isn’t much early pace. I don’t want to see him on the lead, but I think he needs to be closer to the front at the first call than where he was in his last two starts. Greers Ferry (#5) is the second choice on the morning line. His speed figures have been a bit stagnant, but when you look at the horses that have won the races that he’s been in, it makes sense. Track Phantom and Dornoch are both graded stakes winners and Generous Tipper was third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. His form lines are muddied a bit with some turf efforts, but I think the main track is where he’ll do his best running. This is a steep drop for a horse that cost $300K, but it’s probably the right move. He’s another one that could join the early fray.

Race 5:

The last race in the Early Pick-5 and the first race in the Late Pick-5 is a $50K-$40K N3L claiming sprint for four year olds and up. Cactus (#9) feels like an all or nothing kind of horse in this race, and at longer odds, I’ll take a chance that he can get home first. He was sharp in his first two career starts here, including  a starter allowance score in the mud in his second career try. His last three starts weren’t great though. He struggled in a one mile stakes race then came up empty in his next two starts. Morse gave him some time off and he brings him back with restricted claimers. There’s a lot of speed signed on, especially with Absolute Chaos (#3) entered. I think that one will be extra fresh after a lengthy layoff. Others will likely want to go with him, creating a recipe for a pace collapse. Backside Buzz (#6) has some up and down form, which isn’t ideal for one of the shorter priced horses in this race. However, I’m willing to draw a line through his last start against much better competition when going one mile. He ran very well in sprint races on this course, especially on off tracks last season. He gets class relief and reunites with Cristian Torres. Absolute Chaos returns exactly one year to the day of his last race. He was sharp in 2022, but his two races last year were good enough to compete at this level, but I’m not sure they were winning races. Both came on off tracks, which he is likely going to get once again today. He feels vulnerable in this spot and I’ll be trying to beat him outright. 

Race 6:

$12,500 maiden claimers going 1 1/16 miles will start the Late Pick-4 this afternoon. Arkansas breds are eligible to run with a $20K tag. The two shortest prices on the morning line are Mo Moves (#2) and Mr Works (#4). Both were second in races on off tracks at this level in their last starts. Asmussen claimed Mo Moves and brings him back for his 15th career start. His figures are solid, but he’s only come within less than two lengths of the winner one time in career, and that was in a 4 ½ furlong dash in 2022 in Indiana. I don’t see any pattern of improvement, so I won’t be using him on top on any tickets. He’ll strictly be an underneath play for me. Mr Works made his first start since April last month and ran a decent second at this level. With the exception of his start two back, there was a gradual pattern of improvement. Since he went to the shelf for eight months after that effort, I’ll gladly draw a line through that race. I can see him running back to his last effort which likely gets him closer to graduating. The two horses that also have some upside in this spot are Saturday Starter (#3) and Honest Opinion (#8). Saturday Starter figures to be a long price in this race, but his last race at the Fair Grounds when facing $15K maiden claimers, wasn’t terrible. He was close to the pace before fading late that afternoon. That was his first try on the dirt after two dull efforts on the grass to start his career. There’s reason to believe that he can move forward in his second career try on the main track. I don’t know anything about his trainer, Andres Cambray, and his rider, Lindsey Herbert, only won 5% of her races in 2023. However, this is a weak field and this is the kind of race where we often see lower profile connections break through. At 20-1 or higher, I think he has more upside than several of the professional maidens in this field. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Honest Opinion runs for Brad Cox, who is one of the highest profile trainers in the game right now. His last two starts have been abysmal. He did run into a monster in a $50K maiden claimer last out and a decent effort from Rivetage in the 4th race today could flatter him a little bit. I think with this field, it will be impossible to get fair value on him, however, this will be a much softer group than he’s seen in his career, so the idea that he can improve isn’t far-fetched. 

Race 7:

This $50K starter allowance race is also restricted to horses that have not cleared the N1X condition. The morning line favorite is Lips Say Bliss (#9), who ran a huge effort to be third two weeks ago with N2L allowance types. He had two months in between his debut, which was an impressive win with $30K maiden claimers at Churchill, and that start. I think this horse is very talented and he loses nothing by entering and winning this race. He can still run in the lucrative N1X allowance condition here or opt to run in the open $30K starter level. He’s getting some class relief after that big effort, but it’s not as much as it seems. My concern is that he’s being asked to run another big race off a significantly shorter amount of rest. I like a lot about that race, so I’ll cover with him, but I do worry that he won’t have as much as way saw from him last time out. Order of Magnitude (#2) is one of my stronger opinions on the afternoon. There’s not much speed in this race and I think he can sit a perfect stalking trip. He was claimed for $25K on a day where he dominated at Saratoga three starts ago. He hit the board in his first two starts for Diodoro, both coming in starter allowance company. He was given a little time off and comes back in a race where the only pacesetter is Zap Motion (#8), coming from the outside. Order of Magnitude is a better horse and if that one wants to go from his wide draw I think he can sit a comfortable stalking trip just behind him. If he isn’t sent, I think he Arrieta can put him on the lead, much like Saez did at the Spa. He can handle an off track and should be very tough with this group. 

Race 8:

The featured race is a N1X allowance for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. We saw a contentious race at this condition in a sprint for fillies and mares yesterday, with five horses finishing within two lengths of each other. I think a similar scenario could play out today, so I’m looking for some prices in this spot. I like a pair of fillies in this race, both sired by the Venezuelan bred, Karun. Insensitive (#6) makes her first start against winners after breaking her maiden in her 9th career try last month. She ran well that day, putting away her four rivals despite the fact she had to come from off the pace while closing into a slow tempo. That was the kind of effort I think she can build off of, and I don’t think this is a particularly deep group for this condition. I think she’ll be well placed and in position to run her best race. Marshside Mama (#4) was dismissed at 41-1 at this level and she broke a length behind the field that day while drawing the rail. Arrieta was patient and let her find her rhythm while racing in last. She made a strong middle move, but had to tap on the brakes while in traffic. Meanwhile, the winner ran off the screen, and she was less than a length away from getting into the exacta. She’ll make her second start off the layoff and she ran her career top speed figure in Iowa on a wet fast course. Arrieta opted for the top pick, but I still see her as a live longshot in this race. My Good Fortune (#5) closed well to be second in starter allowance company last out. She’s been involved in some races with aggressive pace scenarios in her last few starts and she’s closed well in each of them. She is a professional mare that can adapt, which should serve her well in this spot where I think the pace will be more moderate. She can handle an off track and she runs for a barn that continues to win at this meet. Flashy Lass (#9) is the morning line favorite despite faltering in the slop at this level last out. She was covered up along the rail last out and I’m not sure she loved taking that mud to the face. When she had a seam to race through, she was empty. I don’t love the short price on her, but her best race is still better than most in here, so I will cover with this one as well.

Race 9:

The week ends with a maiden special weight race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. This is another race where there isn’t a ton of early speed on paper. I think that bodes well for Riyadh Moon (#5) and the Asmussen’s. Steve Amussen has six winners here this week alone, so it would be fitting for him to win the nightcap after such a strong week for the barn. He was forwardly placed while wide at this level last out. The two favorites that day were in a race of their own, but he conceded a decent amount of ground loss to both of those runners. It wasn’t enough to be first or second, but the race could have been closer had he been able to save more ground. He was a little flat late, but he kept fighting, holding off a runner with some forward momentum from the back of the field. I think he’ll make the front and prove to be a tough customer in his second try today. Flashy Fast (#7) came running late to finish in front of the top pick. He was making his first start since debuting on closing week at Saratoga. He had to deal with Locked and Drum Roll Please that day, and the top two finishers last out are better on paper than anyone in this field. He ran well on an off track and figures to be in the mix once again in his second start off the layoff. Shattuck (#2) ran well at long odds in his debut in a sprint. He struggled a bit last out, but wasn’t terrible. He’ll make his third career start and his first at two turns today. I like the two sprints to a route pattern for this one who could be an interesting longshot in this field.

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 49/211 (23.2%, $476.20, $2.26 ROI)