Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/10/24 – By Eric Solomon

The week ends in Hot Springs with a nine race Sunday afternoon program. A six furlong allowance sprint is the featured race today. This race serves as an alternative to the Grade 3 Whitmore Stakes, which will go next weekend. Strong performances in either race will likely lead to consideration for the Grade 3 Count Fleet Stakes next month, which is the top race at the meet for sprinters. First post today is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $40K-$35K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. This is a tricky race where the field feels very evenly matched. Two of the eight runners entered are trying a route for the first time. I’m intrigued with Storm Cat Eyes (#8) in this race. He debuted in a $30K maiden claiming race here going six furlongs two weeks ago. He finished 4th, beaten three lengths in a race that wasn’t particularly fast. Greg Compton saw something he liked with this gelding to claim him on behalf of Mag Racing Stables, without ever seeing him compete in the afternoon. He moves him to a route race 16 days after his first try. Offspring of Catalina Cruiser have won 35% of their first route starts (6-17) and Compton has decent numbers with runners first off the claim and going from sprints to routes. Three of the other four foals from this dam to make it to track have been winners. In race where there’s few logical contenders, he might offer the best value. Even though Shattuck (#1) didn’t run a step in a maiden special weight race where he was trying two turns for the first time, the performance from Native Land, who was second in that race, certainly suggests that he faced some quality horses that afternoon. He caught a sloppy track so there is a built in excuse for his second career two-turn try. His rider, Harry Hernandez, is heating up, winning five times this week, and riding a brilliant race to be second to Native Land yesterday. Anniversary d’Or (#6) is another runner that is stretching out to two turns for the first time. He’s sired by Bolt d’Oro, who is getting 14% with his runners routing for the first time. The dam did her best work on the turf and most of her runners have preferred turf or synthetic, but their best efforts are in two turn races. The value on this runner might be a little light, but he’s another one that could be in play here. 

Race 2:

$16K N2L claimers go six furlongs in the back end of the Early Double. Vale (#2) is the morning line favorite after narrowly missing last time out. He’s been claimed seven times since winning his only race last January in New Orleans. While I’ll play him underneath, he’s a hard sell for me in the win spot after many near misses at a level similar to this. Shuffle Dance (#9) is the top pick, hoping to get back on a fast track after a pair of dull efforts in the slop. He takes a deep dive in class after struggling against better horses. There’s not much speed in this speed, so Santana shouldn’t have a problem getting him to the front where he has done his best work in the past. Platinum Ideal (#3) is a longer priced option that could have some upside with this group. He wanted no part of the synthetic course at Turfway in his last start, so Genaro Garcia opted to bring him back to Indiana once the track opened for training there. He’s been working well enough for him to bring this horse to Arkansas, as opposed to waiting another month for racing to begin at Horseshoe Indianapolis. He was showing improvement at Churchill this past fall, and while I think a slightly longer race would be ideal for him, he could secure a decent spot in the early stages, which could give him a chance to pull off the upset. Another one taking a deep dive is Red Line Overdrive (#1) for Norman McKnight. He ran well in his local debut, but he struggled when trying N1X allowance company in his last try. It’s been a long time since he won, so taking too short of a price is not ideal. 

Race 3:

It’s hard to build a case for any of the longer priced runners in this beaten $12,500 claiming race. I don’t love the drop in class, but Lake Radio (#2) feels awfully tough to beat in this race. He’s more consistent than anyone else and many of his opponents’ best days are comparable to some of his weaker outings. Matt Shirer trains him for the leading owners at the meet, Flurry Racing LLC, and they are perfectly comfortable with their runners dive bombing in class. Slam Dunk Sermon (#8) has been a shell of his former self in his last three starts. He was claimed last out, which could be the right wake up class for this seven year old gelding. He was very good on this oval last season and he is making his third start of his current form cycle today. 

Race 4:

$30K N2L claimers go six furlongs here. I think the shorter prices in this find have enough question marks to make me try to look for better alternatives. Mahoney Road (#8) is the pick after running a solid third with $24K-$20K N2L claimers on New Year’s Day. I thought he ran a big race in his local debut. He was sitting inside just off the pace. Harry Hernandez had a seam to run through but it closed up quickly and he had to take up. He showed his athleticism by being able to rebound and continue with a solid run to be third, beaten two lengths in that spot.He was a vet scratch last month, but his last two works indicate he’s doing better from whatever minor ailment was bothering him. I think the outside post works in his favor this afternoon. More Than Five (#3) ships in from Turfway for his local debut. He’s been beaten by four lengths in his last two starts at this condition in Kentucky. He’s making his third start of his current form cycle, and this is the race where he historically runs the best. He’s started four times in his career on dirt, so I don’t see the surface switch as a major issue. Canavall (#7) is one of the three shorter priced runners that feel vulnerable in this race. The distance is the question mark for him, as he’s never run a race shorter than seven furlongs. He was claimed after a strong effort at Keeneland this fall at seven furlongs, so  the idea of him being successful at one turn isn’t crazy. With the exception of a try in N2L allowance company two starts ago, he’s been competitive in every race since breaking his maiden in September. He’s worth covering in spite of that concern because he does check a lot of other boxes.

Race 5:

Arkansas bred fillies and mares run six furlongs in this $20K N2L claiming race that is the start of the Early Pick-5 and the end of the Late Pick-5. There’s a pair of runners that broke their maidens last time out that figure to be tough with this group today. Magnolia Mae (#7) beat a soft field of state bred maiden special weight runners last out when closing well in the slop. That was her first start as a four year old, so there’s reason to believe that she grew up a little since the last time we saw her on the track in June. This is probably the right kind of race to try winners for the first time because you could argue the maiden field that she beat is better than this group. Ngala finished third and she came back to win with state bred maiden claimers last week, while putting up a strong speed figure on a dry course. Delta Moon (#10) also ran in that maiden race and she broke through to break her maiden in her next start when facing $45K state bred maiden claimers. There isn’t a lot of speed signed on for this race and that was the case last time out for her. Cristian Torres, who continues to rack up the wins at this meet, took advantage of that fact last time and he’ll likely have her on or near the lead again. Changing her running style may be the key to improving from her 2023 form. Gold Strategy (#6) is the morning line favorite in this spot. She is coming off a strong effort to be third with $30K-$25K state bred N2L claimers in the mud. She’s run credible races in her first two starts of the year and now makes her third start off the layoff. She’ll likely be facing on a dryer surface today, which shouldn’t be a big issue. I’m not sure if she can run back to her last race, however, she’s the favorite in this race because it feels like she has the highest floor in a race where form is not that strong. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $40K starter allowance race at six furlongs. As is often the case with these higher priced starter allowance races, horses that are eligible for this race must have started at least once for a claiming tag of $40K or less and must be eligible for the N1X allowance condition. Joe Sharp has a pair of runners in this race, but I think J J’s Joker (#6), who is making his first start off the claim, is the best fit. He was very good when dropping in for a tag for the first time since breaking his maiden in a $100K maiden claiming race in October. He was running decent races, but was generally overmatched in allowance races on this oval. Hartman dropped him for a $40K tag, and he responded with a strong stalking victory at this six furlong distance. Sharp moves him to a protected spot where there are several runners that run their best races on the lead. I expect him to run a similar race to what we saw last time out, and get the job done as the favorite in this spot. Own the Field (#7) is another runner that makes in this race. Mike Maker takes over the training for his four year old debut. He ended his three year old season with a pair of solid efforts at Churchill, winning with $30K maiden claimers and finishing third in a similar starter allowance race. The winner, who ran a huge race, and the runner-up, have not started since that race, but two horses that he finished in front of did come back to win their next starts. The pace scenario fits him well, and while he might need this race before he’s at his best, I do think he can contend with this group. 

Race 7:

Fillies and mares will travel 1 1/16 miles in this N1X allowance race. I’m siding against the morning line favorite, Lacie Be Good (#10), coming in from Delta Downs after running some solid races. Her form there has been sharp, but her form elsewhere was not. She draws an outside post while racing on a more traditional American oval. Despite her four race win streak, I don’t trust her in this spot. Red River Magic (#6) drew the 12 hole in her last start at this level. Axel Concepcion was able to get her over to the three path, where she was three wide all the way around the first turn. She was stalking the frontrunners and was asked to go a little early to try to get to the rail and save ground on the second turn. She was able to do that, and she battled hard with the race winner before fading late to be 4th, beaten less than two lengths. There is no real speed in this race today, so if Concepcion wants the lead, he can have it. He does have Delphia (#5) drawn inside of her again and she was forward last time. She doesn’t appear to be a serious threat and Red River Magic did seem to run well while having a target. I think this race sets up very well for her today. What’s to Do (#8) is an interesting longshot that could be worth considering underneath in this race. She tried a two turn race on dirt for the first since the summer of 2022 last out. She drew the rail for that race and broke poorly, spotting the field several lengths. She made a strong middle move to get within about two lengths of the leaders, while progressing five wide on the far turn. She flattened out to finish 8th, but the effort was good enough to think that she could be better if she put herself in a better early position. I prefer her underneath, but if she goes off anywhere near the 56-1 that she did last time out (she’s 30-1 on the morning line), it wouldn’t be crazy to put a few dollars to win on her in a field where there are few others that seem to have upside. 

Race 8:

The featured race is an interesting sprint allowance race with nine runners looking to possibly earn their way into the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap here next month. Osbourne (#7) is an interesting play in this race, cutting back from a respectable try at one mile last out at this level. He’s a better one turn horse and he’s run solid races at this distance in the past. His career top Beyer Speed Figure came at this distance on this oval, with a resounding win last January. He’s capable of running those big races from time to time and I think his fitness level on the cutback in distance is a positive going into this race. Remember that race came two weeks after the two week delay in a training due to bad weather in January here, so Moquett may have just needed to get a race into him. I think he can sit off the speed a little bit and make a move at the top of the stretch in his third start of the meet. Excess Magic (#3) has done most of his work sprinting on the turf, but his last four dirt starts shows that he can compete at this distance with these kinds of horses. He was third in the King Cotton Stakes two starts back and he had to deal with Ryvit, who had the perfect setup in his last race. He’ll be out with the early runners and he’ll be a stubborn foe in the late stages of this one. Gun Pilot (#1) is an improving four year for Steve Asmussen, who always seems to have talented sprinters in his barn. Being sired by Gun Runner, he has never competed at this distance before, with all of his previous races being seven furlongs or longer. He showed that he could be tactical and he easily beat an overmatched field at the Fair Grounds in his four year old debut. He was stakes placed at two turns on this course last year, while also winning an allowance race here in February. He likes the course and he may have found a new home in sprint races. 

Race 9:

The week concludes with a bottom $10K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares. Arkansas breds are eligible to run with a $16K tag here. Art Queen (#11) is a filly that likes to run on late, and she’s taking a significant drop in class for John Ortiz. She’s left herself too much work to do when facing better fields in her last two starts. The first quarter in both of those races was run in under 22 seconds. Unless one of the firsters goes on a mission, the fractions are likely to be a little less intense, which should allow her to secure a better position in the early stages, especially with an outside draw. She was moving well late in her last start, so I’m hopeful that the class relief will do the trick. She’s Taboo (#4) folded up badly last time after a strong effort in the mud two starts ago. She’s another one that is finishing class relief in this race that doesn’t seem to have many real pace threats. Her first two efforts were good enough to think that she could rebound. Penzig (#10) is a claim and drop for Karl Broberg after finishing 3rd with $20K maiden claimers last time out. She was moving well late to just miss two starts back when running with similar. This is probably the right level for her.

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 82/347 (23.6%, $837.60, $2.41 ROI)