There’s a nine race Thursday afternoon program at Oaklawn Park this afternoon. The back end of the card features a pair of nice allowance races in races seven and eight. First post today is 12:30 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 6 | 4,5,6 | DBL, PK5 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 1,3,5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 4 | 3 | 3,5 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 5 | 7 | 2,3,7 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 9 | 6,9 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 8 | 2 | 2,6 | 3 | 1 | DBL |
| 9 | 7 | 3,7,10 | 9 |
Race 1:
The week starts with a weak $20K maiden claiming race for three year old fillies. The trouble with handicapping this race is that the winner is most likely going to come from the three shortest prices, however, all three runners come into this race with a definitive question mark. There’s not much value to be had here, but I’m leaning toward Gogo Bobbyjo (#6) as the top pick. She didn’t do much in two starts in Indiana this summer, but she came back to run a strong race when finishing second at long odds with similar company last time out. The winner of that race just came back to beat $12,500 N2L claimers in her first try against winners. The added distance is a question mark, but the dam’s first foal did break his maiden in his first try at two turns. Bump in the Night (#4) was claimed by Andres Cambray for $12,500 last time out. Cambray has only six starters in his training career with Saturday Starter being his best finisher, nearly pulling off the 40-1 upset last month. This will be the first horse to race after the claim for him. She was in good form two weeks ago when finishing second behind a runaway winner. He’s only had her for two weeks, so in theory, her form should be about the same. Avalon Moon (#5) is the morning line favorite for Brad Cox. She’s coming out of the toughest race in the field, finishing up the track against $100K maiden claimers at Churchill in November. Cox gave her some time off and she comes back with a deep drop in class. Two of the runners from her maiden race came back to win in their next starts. She’ll be overbet because she’s from Cox’s barn, but it’s undeniable that she is coming out of the strongest race by quite a bit.
Race 2:
Beaten $12,500 claimers are slated to run six furlongs here. This race is open to fillies and mares that have either never won three races or haven’t won a race in the last six months. Singing Emma (#4) is the only filly that meets the N3L condition, and she is also eligible under the N1Y condition. Distorted Secrets (#3) is one of my stronger opinions on the program. She has made two starts at this meet and has finished second in both. She was a winner three back in an optional claiming/starter allowance race at Prairie Meadows. She just became eligible for this condition on Sunday, so even though she’s running for a slightly larger claiming tag, this field is not as deep as the field she almost beat last time out. She should sit the perfect trip, stalking the speed of Willow Moon (#2), Musicmansandy (#5), and Varton (#7), all of which are one run, need the lead types. Three of this five year old mare’s career wins have been on this oval and she moves into another capable barn with new claimers. She makes a ton of sense in this race. I’m hoping the fact the Cadeau de Paix (#6) has been running in allowance company for Steve Asmussen keeps the price manageable on the top pick, who is the morning line favorite. Asmussen had another strong weekend here last week and he’s trying to keep things going this week, starting with this nine year old mare. She was a winner the last time she was in for a tag, which came at Keeneland in the fall of 2022. She made her first start at Sam Houston last month after being sidelined since May. She’s the one I’ll use as a backup, assuming that at least two of the three pacesetters stay in this race.
Race 3:
Beaten $7,500 claimers are going one mile here. This race is eligible for horses that have never won three times or for horses that have not won a race since September 1st, 2023. Forever Cool (#8) gets top billing for me in this race. He’s making his 14th career start and his first try at two turns. He’s taking a significant drop in class after being claimed for $30K three starts back, so there is definitely some concern there. His sire, Tale of Ekati, gets 15% winners with his first routers, and his dam has had three runners try two turns on the dirt, with one winning at first asking and the other two finishing in the money. This is not a good field that he’s facing, so the class relief should be meaningful. D Two (#5) has 46 career starts and only one of them has been at this distance, which was his second career start on the turf. Every other race he has been a shorter distance than today’s contest. He hasn’t shown much speed of late, so perhaps the distance will get him there. His dam was a stakes winning sprinter, but I think there’s enough to make me think that this Speightstown gelding has a shot. Awesome Family (#1) doesn’t have the flashiest numbers, but he’s probably more consistent than most of these. He’s drawn well for his first start at two turns since the fall. Galactic Empire (#3) may be an upgrade on a fast track after getting an off-track in his last three starts. However, there are showers in the forecast once again. The timing of the rain is something to pay attention to, but he’s another one that could fare well with this soft group.
Race 4:
A field of seven open claimers running with a $62,500 tag will go six furlongs here. Friar Laurence (#3) feels like the value in this spot. He was a winner at this level at Churchill back in September. Since then he’s made three starts, one was good and the other two were weak. The two poor efforts were against significantly better competition though. He faced a very nice field at Churchill in November when he finished last of 8. The winner is a nice horse from Southern California that was a neck away from winning four straight. The runner up went on to be third in the Grade 1 Malibu and the third place winner recently won a stakes race in New Orleans. In his last start here, he ran into Skelly, who went on to win the King Cotton Stakes in his next start and was recently second in a sprint on Saudi Cup Day. When he’s at the right level, he fires. He’s been given a little time off and should be ready to fire at this level where several of his opponents are in less than stellar current form. Radical Right (#5) is the morning line favorite in the spot, coming back for the same tag after the Norm Casse claim. He’s dropping in class despite running for the same tag. The purse is about half that of his last race though. He’s been a popular claimer with a few big outfits paying good money for him in recent starts. I do think if a stable pays $62,500 for a horse, the goal is to earn that money back on the track, hoping to get them to a point where they could compete in stakes company. The fact that he’s back in for the tag isn’t the best sign. This is another field that didn’t come up as tough as it could have, and he’s been running races that would be very competitive with this field. He’s worth using in the multi-race wagers, but if he’s hammered at the windows, Friar Laurence represents significantly better value to win.
Race 5:
The second division of the beaten $7,500 claimer (the first division was the 3rd race) is the last leg of the Early Pick-5 and the first leg of the late Pick-5. There really isn’t much speed signed on for this race, so I think there’s a chance that Cost Basis (#7), who has been struggling in sprint races lately, could wake up when going back to a mile race. He’s made 28 career starts, and he’s only run this distance twice, with both races coming very early in his career. Both of those races were one turn mile contests, so he’ll be going two turns for the first time in his career today. I don’t love that he’s doing this for the first time as a seven year old, however, this seems to be as good of a spot as any for him to try. He should have no trouble making the lead, assuming he gets out of the gate cleanly. He was on the front end when going 22 and 22:1 in his last two starts in six furlong sprints. He faded badly in both of those starts, so there is a real possibility that he’ll throw in the towel around the ⅝ pole. However, at 20-1, I do think he’s worth taking a chance on while facing a group of one-paced horses that don’t love to win. El Franco (#2) is the runner that is taking the deepest drop in class here. He has been well-beaten in his last two tries when facing $30K-$25K N3L claimers. He showed the ability to be competitive with similar company over the summer and fall. In addition to facing a much softer group, he’s drawn much closer to the rail after having the far outside post in his last two starts. California Swing (#3) makes his first start as a ten year old after running 11 times in 2023. He found the Winner’s Circle three times last year, once on this oval on an off-track. He was a winner two back at Remington, but he remains eligible for this level because that was an open $5K claiming race (races for a $5K tag or less don’t count toward the N1Y condition). The morning line favorite is Charter Oak (#6), who was claimed by Dan Ward last time out. Ward had a good week last week, probably his best thus far of this current meet. He’s been close with similar in his last two, but at 8-5, I don’t see him as that much better than the others on the A line. I’ll cover with him in this wide open race, but I think the A line runners are offering better value, at least with the morning line odds.
Race 6:
The Late Pick-4 begins with a $30K-$25K N3L claiming sprint. There’s a pair of horses that went off form for a bit, but their last races signaled that they are getting back to doing what they do best. Cactus (#6) is the one to beat in this race. He showed some promise last season, winning his first two races here last February. He struggled in his next three starts here and at Ellis before going to the sidelines for eight months. He returned with $50K-$40K N3L claimers in the slop last month and he ran a competitive 5th, beaten less than three lengths. He was closer to the pace that afternoon, which is not what he does best. He might have been a bit pumped up while coming back from the layoff. He drops in class and wouldn’t have an issue if the track came up muddy or sloppy today. Morse originally claimed him for $30K, so dropping into this level is not a big deal in my opinion. Midnight Majesty (#8) ran a valiant effort when fading late to be a close up 4th last time out. He’s another horse that was not running his best races prior to his last start. He is a horse that has stayed good when he gets good though. I could consider upgrading him on a fast track, although he will have competition for the early lead. While I don’t love him on an off-track, he may be doing better than he was in his prior off-track efforts.
Race 7:
As the meet goes on, the racing office likes to card some longer races, which could be serving as preps for races like the Temperance Hill Stakes at 12 furlongs and the Trail’s End starter race which is the traditional 14 furlong race that concludes the meet. This race today is a N1X allowance going 1 3/16 miles. Sun Thunder (#12) is the 8-5 morning line favorite for ken McPeek. He’s a deep closer, but his two races that were longer than nine furlongs were not great efforts. Granted, one of those races was the Louisiana Derby and the other was the Kentucky Derby and he didn’t have ideal trips in either race. However, I’m not convinced he’s going to be as effective at longer distances, so I’m looking for better alternatives to this horse that is riding an eight race losing streak. Rivalry (#9) feels like the one to beat in this race. I’m willing to draw a line through his last effort. He ran back in three weeks after a strong effort in his return at the beginning of January. That race came after a near two-week shutdown of racing and training here due to frigid temperatures. He battled for the front and made the lead, but he faltered late. Sun Thunder finished in front of him in both of those races, but I see the added distance as the equalizer in this race. He was excellent when leading all the way at this distance when breaking his maiden at Churchill in the fall. He came back to run a very game third at this level at Aqueduct in November. I’m willing to draw a line through his last and if he can run back to his prior efforts, I think he’ll be visiting the Winner’s Circle. Alexander Helios (#6)was very good at Tampa when clearing the N1X condition in the beginning of January. Since the purses there are below a certain threshold, he remains eligible for this condition. There is some competition for the early lead, so Leparoux is willing to concede the lead, I think he’ll be very comfortable stalking the pace from 3rd or 4th. Geroux had him closer to the front last time out and I don’t think he was as comfortable as he was two starts ago. He moves into Dan Ward’s barn officially, while racing for the same ownership. Ward has good numbers with new acquisitions, so he is very live in this spot as well.
Race 8:
The co-featured race is a six furlong N2L allowance race for four year olds and up. For a sprint race, there is a major lack of early speed here, mixed with some horses that don’t love to win races. Code Five (#2) figures to be the pace setter in his second start off of a long layoff. He only had one other career start, which was a maiden breaking effort in a state bred stakes race at Turf Paradise where he was dominant. The runner-up in that race did go on to win two state bred stakes races after that race. He likely needed his last when facing a better field. He has the second best Tomlinson Figure in the field, so an off-track could be to his liking. I think he could take this field from gate to wire for trainer Kory Owens. Zambezi (#6) often fires and often gets close, but he’s lost his last eight races, The morning line favorite, Media Mogul (#3) finished in front of him last time out, however that came with an aggressive early pace. I think the lack of early speed should work to his benefit with this field. Media Mogul is worth covering after pairing his Beyers for his first two starts as a five year old. He might be better than his seven rivals in this race, which is why I think it’s wise to back up with him. However, he’s finished second in four of five starts, in part because he often leaves himself too much work to do in the stretch. A deep backup play is Axton (#1), making his first start of the year for Donnie Von Hemel. I think he might be better next time out as he is coming back after a seven month break. He won a wild debut where he dwelt at the start, spotting the field several lengths. He was flying up the rail late to close a ton of ground to win at long odds on debut. He was competitive in allowance races in Iowa over the summer. There’s a chance that he could have grown up during the time away. I’ll likely want to see this one, but if he looks good on the track, he might be worth a small win wager.
Race 9:
The Friday nightcap is a state bred $50K-$45K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up going 1 1/16 miles. Including the AE runner, 8 of the 13 runners in this race are taking their first crack at two turns. I think the sprint race at the $45K state bred maiden claiming level on 2/23 could prove to be a productive race. Several runners from that race are in here, and I think the second time starters, Speaking Loud (#3) and Doublecheck (#7) are the most interesting of the bunch. While Speaking Loud had the better effort on the track, I think the pedigree and the price favors Doublecheck. He was ridden for speed in his debut last time out, before falling back to 6th. He was facing some more experienced runners that finished first and second that day. His barn does well stretching horses out and his sire, Double Irish, gets 14% winners (3-21) from horses in their first routes. His dam has a winner in their first route and three other foals of hers finished in the money. I’ll give him the narrow edge over Speaking Loud. He was slow into stride, and he ran into some traffic in that race, but he finished with a flourish, gaining third and drawing clear on the gallop out. His sire only has two winners from 58 starters in their first dirt route race, which is concerning. However, there was enough on tape, coupled with comparable figures to make him worth considering in this spot. The talented one turn runner, Sharp Azteca is the sire of All Green Lights (#10) who is also emerging from the same race. However, horses that he sired have 11 wins in 52 tries in their first dirt route races. He’s been gelded since his last start, which may help his cause. The A.P. Indy line in on his dam side won’t hurt his chances at two turns. On deeper tickets, Mr Works (#9)is the proven commodity, finishing in the money twice with $20K-$12.5K maiden claimers in his last two tries. Those races are $20K maiden claiming races for Arkansas breds and $12,500 for horses bred in any other state. The class difference between those races and this kind of race isn’t that steep. He fits on figures and can handle an off track. He is 0-9, which is not a trait I love in a maiden race, especially with a runner that figures to be one of the shorter prices. However, with so much uncertainty in this race, covering with him on some deeper tickets probably isn’t the worst decision.
Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 83/356 (23.3%, $847.40, $2.38 ROI)
