The nine horse St. Patrick’s Day card at Oaklawn gets started at the usual 12:30 (CT) post time. The first three races on the program are part of the optional races for the Semi-Finals of the NHC Tournament, which will wrap up this afternoon in Las Vegas. Races 7 and 8 are Final Table races, slated to go off at 3:50 (CT)/ 1:50 (PT) and 4:22 (CT) / 2:22 (PT). The forecast for this afternoon is for dry conditions with temperatures in the lower 60’s.
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | DBL, PK5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 3 | 6 | 3,6,9 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 2,7 | 9 | 8 | DBL, PK3 |
| 5 | 10 | 7,8,10 | 12 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 10 | 10,12 | 3 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 5 | 2,5 | 11 | DBL | |
| 9 | 4 | 4 | 7,9,11 |
Race 1:
No one in this $50K starter allowance race that starts the afternoon is in better current form than Lips Say Bliss (#2), who is making his 4th career start. He was a dominating winner in his debut with $30K maiden claimers at Churchill in November. He’s finished in the money in both starts at this meet so far. He failed as the favorite last time out, losing to a very promising Arkansas bred, Black Apple, who just came back to beat a strong group last week. Robert Medina puts blinkers on him for a race where there isn’t a lot of early speed signed on. I think he could go to the front or stay close early on, but I do think he’s the most likely winner. Luna Vieja (#5) finished first at this condition back in December, but his number was taken down. The favor was returned to him two back at the Fair Grounds in a similar spot. I didn’t love his effort last time out in an off the turf N1X allowance race where he was a little flat. I’ll back up with him in this race, but I do wonder if he’s trending in the wrong direction.
Race 2:
Arkansas breds go six furlongs in this $35K-$30K maiden claiming race. On paper, Patton’s Tizzy (#1) checks a lot of the boxes you’d want to have in a short priced favorite. He runs for a high percentage barn that wins a ton of races when his horses drop in from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company. However, I thought his last race was very disappointing. He had the right trip and came up empty while running on the wrong lead throughout the stretch. I’d much rather have Sunday Spirit (#6) coming back after a nine day rest. He feels like a horse that is putting things together and might be ready to graduate this afternoon. His debut was a toss, but he dropped into maiden claiming company and broke to his left, which was not ideal when starting from the rail. He spotted the field several lengths, but he made up the ground with a long, sustained bid which got him into third place. He caught a muddy track on the 7th of March when facing a similar group. He was buried along the rail and never really had a chance to run. Once he was able to get off the rail, he had to dive to the inside when his seam was closing. He ran on to be third, but had things gone a little differently, he could have easily won that race. If these two runners hooked up in the stretch, I’d favor him.
Race 3:
We’ll stay with the state breds in this $12,500 N1Y claiming race at six furlongs. There’s an interesting dynamic with a pair of runners that are making their second starts off the layoff. Heritage Park (#6) and Traffic Control (#7) both made their first start of 2024 in a similar type of race last month. Traffic Control finished 3rd and Heritage Park was fifth, about a length and half behind. Traffic Control is listed as 7-2 and Heritage Park is 8-1, most likely in part because of the human connections. Their running lines are looking relatively similar for these eight year old geldings, but there is one stat that stands out. Traffic Control is 0-22 on this course over the years, finishing second only once, and finishing third just three times. He’s never been a win machine, but that’s a tough thing to ignore. Heritage Park on the other hand is 4-19 on this oval with five more races where he finished in the money. He;s been a more consistent horse than the shorter priced option and I do think he can move forward enough off his last race to contend here today. Allo Enry (#9) hasn’t had a great start to this meet, but he is dropping into the lowest level of his career today while showing some progression in his speed figures of late. He hasn’t run back to the numbers and races he was running earlier in 2023 yet, but he could be trending in the right direction while facing a weaker group today. Holding Pattern (#3) is a low ceiling, higher floor kind of horse in this race. He’s run about the same speed figure in his last three starts. He’s most likely going to be coming from the back of the pack. There isn’t a ton of speed, but he’s shown that he can adapt when necessary.
Race 4:
Fillies and mares are set to go 1 1/16 miles in this beaten $15K claiming race. Non-winners of three races or horses that have not won a race since 10/17 are eligible to run in this race. Both Undecoded (#7) and Start Singing (#9) are coming out of the same $12,500 starter allowance race last month. Start Singing bumped Undecoded assuring her rail position that day. Undecoded was racing in behind a wall of horses for most of the race and never fired when asked the question. I do think moving to the outside part of the gate could be beneficial for Undecoded, who ran several races in 2023 that would put her right in the mix in this race. Her last two races were not very good, but she wasn’t very good in her first start off the layoff last year. She did start to improve in her second start back, however she had a much more favorable trip that afternoon. She’s dropping in for a tag for the first time in over a year and at longer odds, I could give her a chance in her third start off the break. Pens Street (#2) is looking to rebound after a dull effort in a six furlong starter allowance race at the end of January. Six furlongs is probably just a little too short for her, but I do wonder if the 1 1/16 miles of this race is a shade too long for her. Her only two tries beyond a mile were not very good, however, one of those races came in graded stakes company earlier in her career and the other came on synthetic. She was very good when winning at one mile at Los Alamitos back in September. Her two starts since being claimed by Diodoro haven’t been good, however, the starter allowance race at the Fair Grounds came on Claiming Crown Day and that was a very good field she faced on a very sloppy course. She comes back to two turns and if her odds float over her 3-1 morning line, I’d be more more inclined to upgrade her in this spot. Start Singing saved every inch of ground last time out, so now she’ll have to try and run the same kind of race while breaking from the far outside post. She does have a decent amount of tactical speed which should serve her well and her trainer, Jonas Gibson, knows how to win races, especially in claiming races like this. She does risk losing more ground than she did and as a favorite in a race where the margins for error are fairly slim, others might offer better value. On deeper tickets, Lantern’s Candy (#8) is one to consider. I think she’s a shade slower than the top three picks, but she is making her second start off the layoff for Lindsay Schultz, who has excellent numbers with horses going from sprints to routes. She was entered in a tougher spot with the waiver last time out and she’s eligible for one more start without risking being claimed. I like her better at two turns and while I think she’s more likely to finish second or third than she is to win this race, I could take a small chance on her on top if the price was right.
Race 5:
The race that ends the Early Pick-4 and Early Pick-5 and starts the Late Pick-5 is an open $10,000-$7,500 claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. A full field of 12 is signed on for this event. This is an absolutely wide open race where just about any one of these ladies could win this on their best day. Since the first two legs of the Early Pick-5 look chalky, I think there’s room to spread out in this race. The morning line favorite is Ball Gown (#5), who is 0-6 on a fast dirt track. She has two strong wins in her last two starts, but both of them came on off tracks, and I’m not convinced she’s going to be as effective on the fast course that she’s most likely getting today. I’m going to use a trio of longshots on the A line in this race, making Tenacious Lady (#10) the top pick. She wasn’t very good last out when she was soundly beaten by Awesome Birdie (#12) and some others that are back in here. However, she was claimed by a lower percentage trainer in January and made her first start for him that day. She didn’t fire when Varton went very quick on the front end early on in the race. She was one of six runners claimed from that race and she now starts for Kevin Martin, who is 2-6 with runners first off the claim in his career as a trainer. He had a winner last week who was making their first start off the claim and I do think he can right the ship with a horse who beat the morning line favorite on the square two starts ago. Docs Seven (#7) ran on late to be third in that same race when Dan Ward claimed her. She’ll be running back for her new connections for the first time here as well. She has three workouts in the morning that looks progressively better, which is a positive sign for me. She may be rounding back into better form as she makes her second start of the meet. Mia Baby (#8) is another one that could be coming back to her better races. She ran some races this summer and fall in Indiana that would likely get her close with this group. She ran okay at this level three starts ago and she faded while facing better last time out. She fits better at this level and could be tough if she continues to trend upward. Awesome Birdie is the backup for me in this race. On paper, she makes a ton of sense, drawing the outside post in a race where she could easily be the controlling speed. However, like many others in here, she was claimed last time out. Kenny Jansen won 20% of his races in 2023, however, he’s only 1-16 with runners first off the claim in the last five years. She has proven that she can put some better efforts together and if she’s left unchallenged, she could easily steal this one. I think others offer better value here.
Race 6:
More open filly and mare claimers will compete at six furlongs here. The claiming tag for this one is $20K. One of my stronger opinions on the afternoon is Essential Business (#8) for Steve Asmussen. She’s been claimed in her first two starts of the meet after shipping here from Southern California. She struggled in her local debut when catching a muddy course and making her first start in four months. She was a little slow to find her best stride last time out, but she was rolling late to be third. I expect her to improve in her third start off the layoff for a barn that has been sharp here all meet. Asmussen has four winners first off the claim at this meet already, scoring with Quick Buck just yesterday. His son Keith has ridden all four of those winner and he’ll get the call today. My backup in this spot will be She’s Bulletproof (#6), who was claimed for $25K last time out in a time-restricted race, and now runs for a lower tag and a lower purse in her first start for Timothy Martin. This barn has been ice cold at this meet, so 7-2 feels very low. I do think her odds will float up, and I think with Diva Treva (#2), Promises to Dance (#7), and Wings From Above (#9) all signed on for this race, she is going to get a strong pace to set up her late close.
Race 7:
The first of two mandatory Final Table races for the NHC Championship is an open $32K claiming race at one mile, which drew a full field of 12. St Andrews (#10) is the pick in this wide open contest. He’s stretching back out to a mile after coming up short in his last few sprints. He ran very well when clearing the N1X condition at Delaware in August for Compton. He gives the reins to Francisco Arrieta, which is a positive jockey switch in a wide open race. When Arrieta has ridden for Compton at Oaklawn, they’ve won at a 33% clip together since the start of 2023. Camp David (#12) will need to navigate a trip from Post 12, but I think he has a decent shot in this race. He’s faced tough fields in his last two starts. Alejandro ran a big race last time out and he met a very salty allowance field two back. Money Supply was the winner that day and he went on to win the Mineshaft Stakes at the Fair Grounds in his next start. The runner up was Notary, who came back to crush a N2X allowance field and then finish 3rd in the Razorback in his last start. Bear Oak finished 4th that day and he came back to pout up a big figure when beating a good starter allowance group. Maker gives him class relief and the last time he ran for a tag this low, he was a winner. When Perfect Flight (#3) is right, he is probably too good for this group. However, his bigger efforts are fewer and far between these days. Diodoro claimed him for $50K, thinking that this could be a horse that he could get back into stakes form, however, the drop in class is a bit concerning. In 2022, he was the runaway winner of the Zia Park Derby. In 2023, he beat a strong N2X allowance field at Del Mar, which was the last time he found the Winner’s Circle. Alejandro took it to him last time out in the same claiming race that Camp David is coming out of. Diodoro puts blinkers on for the first time, which has been a productive angle for him. He’s drawn well and the mile distance should suit him a little better than the 1 1/16 mile race. I have some concerns, but I’ll use him in a race where I have questions about a lot of the runners.
Race 8:
The featured race and the final mandatory NHC race from Oaklawn is a N1X allowance race for four year olds and up, going one mile. Handicappers are going to have to navigate another full field in a race that ends at the 1/16 pole at Oaklawn. I like Late Nite Radio (#5) as the top pick in this race. He made his first start of the meet in a strong N1X allowance race at six furlongs on the Rebel undercard last month. There was a race at this same distance and condition on that program, but Caster ran him in the sprint, likely with a race like this in mind. He finished 4th that afternoon, beaten 3 ½ lengths by Favorite Outlaw, who is a fast horse. He had two allowance wins at Remington over the fall, but remains eligible for this condition because of the purse structure there. I think this lightly raced six year old gelding is still improving and can clear this condition with this group today. Mr. Keating (#2) is a horse that could be overlooked today. He’s made three starts at this meet, breaking his maiden at six furlongs two starts ago. Norm Casse opted to run him in the mile N1X allowance race on the Rebel undercard instead of the six furlong one when facing winners for the first time. He ran well at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill in June and his pedigree suggests that longer distances should be an issue. His effort on paper that day looked poor, but he did not have a very good trip. He got caught on the inside behind a 53-1 longshot that was fading. There were several runners lining up outside of him so he had nowhere to run at a time when the frontrunners were put to a drive. The upset winner of that race, Polterer, came back to beat a decent starter allowance field here on Friday. I think with a little more racing luck, he can be a factor with this group. If his odds float over his 10-1 morning line figure, I’ll definitely have a win bet on him in this race. Ben Franklin (#11) finally broke through to break his maiden in his 5th career start last month. He had a wide post at this distance and came with a powerful five wide sweep to beat an overmatched field that afternoon. I’m not convinced he’s going to get such a sharp pace in this race, and even though he won at this distance, the short stretch in the mile races here might not be ideal for him. I think he’s worth using since he’s run well against horses that ran big races when they beat him. However, there’s a lot that he’s going to have to overcome to get the job done.
Race 9:
The week ends with a maiden special weight contest for three year old fillies sprinting six furlongs. There are six first time starters facing five runners with racing experience in this race. Of those five runners who have raced, only one looks like she can contend with this group, so it’s not surprising that all of the shorter prices on the morning line in this race are making their debuts. I do think Alicit Intention (#4) is worth considering in this race. She was a step or two slow away from the gate and then was forced to steady in the first furlong. She ran on gamely to get into third, just missing second at long odds. The winner of that race, Popperina, ran huge that day and Bellaju, who set the fractions on debut, came back to win a maiden special weight race last weekend for three year olds and up. I think she has ability, and while they are live, none of the firsters are jumping off the page. I’ll back up with a trio of debuting fillies, all of which run for barns that are very capable of getting horses to win at first asking. Lithe Spirit (#11) is my preference for Steve Asmussen. Of the six fillies making their debuts, she’s the only one that was sold as a two year old. The other five were sold as yearlings, and the fact that four of the five cost more than six figures and aren’t debuting until now isn’t ideal. Lithe Spirit was sold for $485K in April and Asmussen gave her some time to develop. It’s interesting seeing Leparoux getting the assignment, as he rarely rides for this barn. Keith Asmussen might have committed to ride Lady Moscato (#1) prior to his father entering this one in this race. I’m not sure if that’s a positive or negative, but I like the outside draw for her debut and I do believe that she’s in with a fighting chance. Brad Cox sends out Almostgone Rocket (#7) for Frank Fletcher and Ten Strike Racing. Fletcher had a nice winner yesterday with Rocket Can winning his first start since the Kentucky Derby last year. This filly is not one of his homebreds as she was purchased at auction in September of 2022. She has some solid drills in New Orleans, so it could be seen as a good sign that they’re shipping her here as opposed to running in the maiden race in New Orleans yesterday (where Cox was not represented). As is often the case with Cox’s runners, she’s likely to be overbet in this spot. Norm Casse has a pair of debut runners in this race (he also had a pair of debut runners in the Fair Grounds race yesterday who finished 4th and 8th). Of the two, it’s pretty clear that She Called (#9) is the barn preference. Santana rides a good amount for Casse and when they team up, they have won 32% of their races together in 2023 and 2024. This one was working at the Fair Grounds, but was sent here where she’s worked twice. With the $57K purse in New Orleans for maiden special weight races and the $115K purse here, I’d think that the barn’s better runners would be debuting here.
Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 86/386 (22.3%, $899.20, $2.33 ROI)
