Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/21/24 – By Eric Solomon

Four day race weeks continue in the month of March at Oaklawn Park. The Thursday card is a nine race program headlined by some nice state bred fillies and mares competing in an optional claiming/allowance contest in the 8th race of the afternoon. First post today is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

A field of eight will get the week started in a 1 1/16 mile maiden special weight contest for three year olds and up. First of His Name (#7) is an interesting new face in this division, making his first start since August for Rodolphe Brisset. Brisset’s runners have struggled at this meet, going 0-17 with four second place finishes. There were some strong maiden special weight races this summer at Ellis and he picked one of them to make his debut. Next out winners, West Saratoga and Generous Tipper came out of that race. He shipped to Indiana where he was sent off at 2-5. He broke out and didn’t corner particularly well on either turn. After covering a lot of ground when going well wide into the first turn, he made a strong move to get to the front as they moved on to the second turn. He looked like he was going to pull clear, but he drifted well wide and began to fade late. The extended vacation and the fact that he was gelded could help him mature. His half sister was stakes placed in the Silverbulletday, so there’s reason to believe that better days are ahead. Mackman (#4) debuted in September 2022 where he finished third. We didn’t see him again on the track until February of this year, where he finished third once again. He was game at the Fair Grounds in that race and now moves into Greg Compton’s barn. He has decent numbers with horses running for him for the first time and going from sprints to routes. He’s sired by Belmont winner Union Rags and he has a half-brother that won in his third career start, which was his first two turn try. Mount Craig (#8) has been a money burner, losing all 13 career starts. He has finished in the money in 9 of those races, so he has some ability. He ran into Ben Franklin last time out and that one just cleared in the N1X allowance condition on Sunday here. This is one of the softer groups that he’s been up against and he seems to have rebounded after going off form in Kentucky in the fall. I’ll back up with him here. 

Race 2:

It’s hard for me to get excited for Communication Memo (#4) as the favorite in this $7,500 N3L claiming race. He showed some promise last season, but he seems to be trending in the wrong direction. He’s moving from the Asmussen barn to a lower percentage barn. He was 4th in a $12,500-$7,500 N3L race here last out, and I’m not convinced that can even duplicate that effort. Spiteful Sam (#1) was second in that race, but he might be overlooked after a dull effort with better horses at one mile. Bejarano picks up the mount for the first time on this horse who I think is capable of rebounding with this group. There’s several runners that want to be forward in this race, so Invariably (#10) makes sense as a horse that could be running late. He flopped in aforementioned N3L claiming that many of these are coming out of. He was sharper when facing a better field on March 10th, finishing 5th, beaten 5 ½ lengths. Forsaken (#9) was a big winner with state N2L claiming company two starts back. He bounced a bit in the same N3L race that many of these ran in last time out, but I do think he has the ability to rebound.

Race 3:

Ten fillies and mares are entered in this $12,500 maiden claiming race at six furlongs. Arkansas breds get to run for a $20K tag at this level. In her last three starts, Pleasingly (#9) has had to work fairly hard to make the front end. I don’t see any legitimate challenger for her to deal with in the early stages of this one though. She has had trouble finishing those races, but she has also had to work hard to get to the front. The first time starters are setting the track on fire in the AM so I think she can shake clear early and hold off Art Queen (#6) late. Art Queen is the heavy favorite on the morning line, and she makes a lot of sense in this race. She was claimed by Karl Broberg after finishing 4th as the favorite with a bottom $10K maiden claiming field. She has run three consecutive races that would likely get her very close with this group. Her main issue is that she has left herself with too much to do in those races. The pace scenario favors Pleasingly in this spot, but I still think these are two that will decide this one.

Race 4:

I think Uninvited Guest (#5) has a decent shot in this time restricted $50K-$40K claiming race. He became eligible for this N2Y condition two weeks ago as he was a strong winner when facing similar rivals at Churchill at the end of September. He started off this meet strong when scoring in an optional claiming/N3L allowance race in December. He’s struggled in his last two starts against larger and deeper fields when also being forced to break from a tougher post. He was never involved in a strong N2X allowance race in the mud last time out. His form goes up and down, and I do think he is sitting on one of his better efforts today. Saqeel (#1) is a major question mark in this race, making his first start since joining Mike Maker’s barn. He finished up the track when facing Money Supply in his last two starts. That one went on to win the Mineshaft Stakes last month at the Fair Grounds and he’s a contender in the New Orleans Classic Stakes on the Louisiana Derby undercard this Saturday. Prior to his poor efforts in December and January, he was in solid form, running races that would easily put him in the Winner’s Circle in a race like this. He missed a month of training and has had two works since. He gets serious class  relief for this race, but whether or not he’s the same horse he used to be is still in question. I’ll cover with him cautiously in this spot.

Race 5:

Fillies and mares will go six furlongs in this $24K-$20K N2L claiming race which ends the Early Pick-4 and Pick-5 and begins the Late Pick-5. I think the recent maiden winner, Quiero Dinero (#5) is interesting in this race. She made three starts on the Tapeta at Presque Isle this summer and fall, finishing second in all three. She came to Oaklawn after four months on the sidelines and she was a dominating winner in a $30K maiden claiming race. She didn’t beat much that afternoon, but she looks good doing so. She proved she can compete on traditional dirt and she now makes her second start off the layoff while facing some runners in questionable current form. I’d love to get somewhere in the neighborhood between 8-1 and 10-1 on this mare and anywhere near her 15-1 morning line would be a bonus. Laura Branigan (#1) is another runner that ran well in her first start on conventional dirt. Prior to coming to Oaklawn, she ran eight times in Northern California, winning once and finishing 2nd four other times. She faced a similar group in a $30K-$25K N2L claiming race here last month where she closed well to finish second, beaten less than a length. She was claimed by Cipriano Contreras for $30K and he runs her back a month later for a $24K tag. This barn has excelled with this kind of move at this meet. Manny Esquivel rides first call for his uncle, but he’s not named to ride any horses today, so apprentice Carlos Barbosa gets the assignment. Asmussen has a pair of runners in this race, but I think Sugar Mamas Cakery (#3) is the more intriguing of the two. She ships in from Sam Houston after faltering in an off the turf allowance race at five furlongs in her last start. She’s going longer than she ever has before today and she’s entered with a claiming tag for only the second time. She might have enough speed to secure the lead and try to wire this bunch. I also see a scenario where she is absolutely empty at the top of the stretch. She feels like a boom or bust type of a horse in this race. 

Race 6:

It’s hard to get excited about taking 8-5 on Sir Otto (#2) in this race. He was a $475K yearling purchase in September 2022. He made his debut with maiden special weight types here on Rebel Day, where he was bet down from 4-1 to the 9-5 post time favorite. He drew the rail that day and was sent for the lead by Gaffalione. He faded to finish 7th after a strong first half. I’d probably be all over him if this were a maiden special weight race, but the fact that this is a $30K-$25K maiden claiming race feels like a major red flag. Thanks Frank (#3) gets the call for me in his second start as a three year old. He debuted at Ellis and was 5th in a five furlong race that produced a graded stakes winner. He ran in the same maiden special weight race as First of His Name (who is my top pick in the first race). If that one runs well, I think it would definitely flatter him in this race. Thanks Frank actually finished in front of him in that race, but wasn’t seen again on the track until he resurfaced in a maiden $50K claiming race here last month. He came with a bid from the back of the field, but he was floated seven wide and was never really a factor in the stretch. He drops in class and faces a few shorter priced horses that have really struggled to finish races. I think he’ll be tough to deal with late. Rocketrightyeight (#4)has been wildly inconsistent in his six career starts. His best effort was a third place finish here three starts back on New Year’s Eve. He struggled in his last two, but he broke poorly two back and was trying one mile last time. He takes a significant drop in class out of $100K maiden claiming company. It’s probably the right time to make that move and I think getting Bejarano to ride is an upgrade. Mirage (#8) has five career starts, and has alternated between sprinting and routing up to this point. It seems apparent that one turn racing is what he prefers, so he’ll get to do that for the second consecutive race. He does have a pair of second place finishes, although he was well-beaten in both of those starts. He’s another runner that figures to have an impact with this group.

Race 7:

The last Pick-3 opportunity of the afternoon is a bit of an unusual condition. It’s an optional $75K claiming/$50K starter allowance race for three year old fillies. There was a race at a condition similar to this carded on New Year’s Eve and Hush It Honey (#3) was a strong winner of that contest. She tried stakes company after that race, running in the Martha Washington Stakes on a sloppy course last month. She broke in sharply and was unable to gain the position she was aiming for. She was caught behind horses and faded badly when trying to go wide on the far turn. I like her cutting back in distance and coming back to this level, and I see her as one of the three that are most likely to win this race. However, looking at the board, I prefer the value on Spin the Breeze (#1), who is shipping in from the Fair Grounds for McLean Robertson. Her first two starts in dirt sprint races were solid in Delaware and Louisiana. She broke her maiden in an off the turf maiden special weight race three starts back. Since then, she ran into Tarifa when going long, and then had a tough trip when getting on the grass for the first. While I wouldn’t dismiss her on the grass if she opts to go that away again, sprinting on dirt is what she has proven to do best. I think she has a similar chance to win as both Hush It Honey and Hittin My Stride (#7), so if she goes off near her 10-1 morning line and they go off as the first and second choice, she would be the value play of the race. Hittin my Stride was two lengths behind Hush It Honey two starts back. She moved up to allowance company last time out where she finished 7th, behind three next out winners. The fillies that finished first and second in that race went on to win the last two sprint stakes races for three year old fillies here. I think Hush It Honey might have a bit of a pace advantage over her, but I don’t see there being too much that separates this trio. 

Race 8:

Arkansas bred fillies and mares take the spotlight in the featured optional $30K claiming/N1X allowance race going six furlongs. Joe McKellar doesn’t have many horses in his stable at the moment, but he has the two fillies that he has raced at this meet in good form. Music Mistress (#2) comes into this race after narrowly missing in an optional claiming/N3L allowance race. She was excellent two starts ago when winning an open $30K N2L claiming race at 24-1. She likes to stalk the front end, which is a running style that should fit well in this field. If she can run back to her last race, I think the other fillies and mares, most of which keep running the same kind of race, are running for second place. Sulwe (#1) a winner against a weak field at this level back in January. She comes back, while racing for a tag this time for Ron Moquett. She showed more tactical speed in her last race which came at two turns. All three of her career wins have come at one turn white coming from off the pace. I’d prefer her on an off-track, which doesn’t feel likely today. If the track does come up wet, I’d definitely upgrade her. Otherwise, she’s more of a deeper ticket backup for me. 

Race 9:

The Thursday nightcap is a $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs. There is an interesting restriction which won’t show up in the future PP’s for the runners coming out of this race. To be eligible for this contest, a horse must have competed at Oaklawn at least once at this meet and the horse could not have finished second, third, or fourth in any race here this season. This is a clever way to reward the horsemen that continue to fill the entry box at this meet. However the byproduct of that good deed is a $20K maiden claiming race that is much weaker when compared to some of the other races at that condition. That is definitely something to keep an eye on with the horses that run well in this race today. Bee Branch (#5) was inexplicably bad when facing $30K state bred maiden claimers here last time out. She was off the board in her debut when she met some strong maiden special weight fillies at Churchill in November. The winner, Halina’s Forte, has run second twice in stakes company and then beat a next out stakes winner when winning the Ruthless Stakes in her last start. While I would have liked to see her run a better race than she did last time out, at 15-1 (ML), I would be willing to give her another chance when facing a softer group in her second try off the layoff, while running for a trainer that does well with new acquisitions. Miss Terre (#7) ran a strong figure when finishing last in her debut when facing open $50K maiden claimers. She makes her second career try while taking a significant drop in class. She’s facing some professional maidens in this race that don’t seem to know how to win, so it won’t be surprising if she goes off at a short price. Firecracker Sue (#12) drops in for a tag for the first time, while making her first start for Karl Broberg. She ran okay two back in the mud when sprinting in a restricted maiden special weight race. She tried two turns in her first start on a fast track last time out and she was crushed. This is a major drop in class and she should be sprinting on a fast track for the first time today. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 89/395 (22.5%, $921.60, $2.33 ROI)