Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/23/24 – By Eric Solomon

As we make our way toward some of the biggest days of racing during this great meet, the Saturday card features a pair of nice stakes races. The 8th race is the Hot Springs Stakes is for three year olds going one mile. The 9th race today is the Grade 3 Essex Handicap for four year olds and up going 1 ⅛ miles. That race serves as the last local prep before the Grade 2, $1,250,000 Oaklawn Handicap on April 20th. First post today is the usual 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a $20K maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs. A race at this same condition was carded as the Thursday nightcap. The restriction for this maiden claimer is that any horse entered could not have finished second, third, fourth, at any point during this current meet. This becomes a great spot for St. Olaf Rose (#10), who is dropping in class after running 5th with $50K maiden claimers here on March 7th. That was a very productive race, as Business As Usual, who finished 4th, beat Spacitygirl, who was third that day, in a maiden claiming race yesterday. The winner of that race, Just an Opinion, was a decent third on Thursday in starter allowance company. She paired her Beyers in those first two races and now she gets even more class relief that it appears on paper, since many of these horses have been haplessly beaten in lesser races. I like the outside post for her and I think she graduates fairly easily in this race at short odds. Perhaps Pink Chimes (#8) can offer a little value in this race. She ran a credible figure when finishing 4th behind a runaway winner in her debut at Prairie Meadows in September. Things haven’t been great at this meet as she was beaten a combined 36 lengths in two races on off tracks. She was fifth at the $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming level on a fast track last time, showing improvement. Pleasingly was third in that race and she came back to win on the Thursday card this week. I think that field was deeper than the group she’s facing now. I don’t think she’s a threat to the top pick, but underneath, she’s as good as most of these ladies.

Race 2:

Three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming race. Copper Echo (#4) and Catalina Crush (#9) were second and third when facing a strong front-running winner in a similar race three weeks ago. Catalina Crush keeps running the same, one-paced race that gets him reasonably close, but he doesn’t seem to have that finishing kick. He’s one that I’d keep underneath. Copper Echo was strong in that race, finishing 1 ½ lengths ahead of Catalina Crush. That was his second career start and he took a big step forward from his maiden effort at Sam Houston. He was stuck in behind the front-runner, who cut the corner and kicked clear for home before Copper Echo could accelerate. He makes a ton of sense in this race, but that was a big move forward and the fact that he’s staying at the same level makes me a bit leery of a bounce. I’m putting him on the A line, but I’ll make Twirling Troillet (#3) the top pick. With the two runners posted inside of him, he should have no issue securing the early lead from the rail. He likely needed that last race after coming back from a maiden special weight race where he came to a complete stop. His Equibase Speed Figures are closer to Copper Echo than their Beyer Speed Figures suggest. As a result, he could be overlooked in this race where he should move forward and set the early tempo. Guarani (#5) also runs for Asmussen, and the fact that Luis Fuentes takes the mount tells me that Keith Asmussen prefers the favorite. He finished near the back in both of those races, but he faced strong fields. He was given a little time off and now drops in for a tag, which isn’t ideal for a horse that cost $425K. He’s the full brother to Switzerland, who was a graded stakes winner over here and went on to win the Dubai Golden Shaheen in 2022. That one needed several starts before he broke his maiden, so there is hope for improvement here. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will sprint six furlongs in this $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming contest. There is a lot of poor recent form in this race, so the struggle here is trying to figure out who is going to bounce back. The fact that Thisonesforlove (#10) is running back so quickly feels like a positive for a horse that has a lot of gaps in her form lines. Her first two races were decent before she was sidelined for 10 months with an injury. She’s made three starts in the last six months, and none of them have been good. She is dropping in class while drawing the outside post for this race. She feels like a horse that could have some upside at long odds. Jubilant Joanie (#5) was about six lengths better than the top pick when they met in that $30K N2L claiming race here two weeks ago. Her last two starts on a fast track are likely good enough to beat this field. Alberto Pusac doesn’t get a ton of looks on favorites and he’s 0-13 when riding for Eusebio Rufino, so the fact that he gets the call in a race over Ramon Vazquez is a little concerning. I’ll still use her, but I’m not I want her at too short of a price. Always Smiling (#1) had a rough trip at this level last time out. There were two divisions of the $12,500 N2L claiming race and she was in the tougher of the two. Summer of Mischief ran away with a convincing win as the heavy favorite. She couldn’t go with that one in the early stages, which made drawing the rail that day a tough situation. Torres was able to get her off the rail after some anxious moments, but she wasn’t able to go with the top pair that day. She faded to 5th in her first start for Diodoro. She was a claim and drop runner that day that wasn’t claimed, so she’s back at the same level, where she drew the rail again. She’s another one that makes sense, but will likely be below what I would consider fair value. 

Race 4:

Here we have a $55K-$45K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. While I doubt love the drop in class, I think Nyquick (#4) is going to be very tough to deal with in this race. He made his first start of the meet on a sloppy course at the end of January. Southern Sunset ran a huge race that day and when that one quickened, he had absolutely no answer as he plummeted to the back of the field. He was very good in his second career start here last season, just missing that day. His stablemate, Empire’s Best (#8) will want the lead and Geroux shouldn’t have much competition to secure the lead, despite his outside draw. He’s had easy leads in his last two races and has been caught in the final strides. Nyquick isn’t likely going to duel with his stablemate, but I think Torres can sit just off his flank. When they turn for home, I trust Torres, who had another multiple win day yesterday, to get this one home. Empire’s Best does have a pace advantage and the fact that Nyquick is dropping after that bad race in the slop, means I do want to cover him on some tickets. Another one that I’ll use on some deeper plays is The Heights (#1), making his second start off a layoff. He ran on late to be a decent third with $30K maiden claimers when making his first start since May. He’s a half brother to Caddo River (and he has another half-brother, Mena, running in the Hot Springs Stakes later on in the card). He has two credible races in maiden claiming company, and while this field is definitely tougher, he is eligible to improve. 

Race 5: 

The second division of the $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares going six furlongs drew another field of 10. I think the longer priced runners in this race aren’t bringing much to the table. The morning favorite, Chip Shortage (#3), is consistent, but she hasn’t shown much growth. I do like that she responded well when being forced to change tactics. She’s typically on or near the lead, and despite breaking well, she wound up near the back of the pack when apprentice Joseph Bealmar opted not to engage the four other fillies and mares vying for the lead. She was last at the top of the stretch, but she followed the favorite along the rail and moved well enough to get into second, beating out Risky Spirit (#1) by a mere nose for the place. She’s a B line play for me in this race. I’ll use a trio of fillies on the A line, giving the slight preference to the second time starter, Lofty Heights (#2). She broke her maiden on debut in a $15K maiden claiming contest at Sam Houston last month. She hit the wire in a dead heat with East Coast Cowgirl that afternoon. She covered more ground than her rival and galloped out in front. Asmussen moved her to Louisiana Downs, suggesting that he was going to run her on a stronger circuit for her second career start. She’s going to need to improve, but she show ability and professionalism for a first time starter and I think that effort will serve her well here today. Risky Spirit took a big step forward from a speed figure perspective in her last start. She was jostled around a bit at the start and forced toward the back of the field. She moved up on her own and drew alongside the heavy favorite as they went into the far turn. The favorite stayed on the rail and she had to go four wide. Arrieta used her momentum to try to get the jump on Show Me the Candy, but she tried late to just miss second. I thought she ran a strong race and as a three year old filly, she could still be getting better. She’ll have to prove that she can run back to that figure after setting a new career top. However, of the top three in that last race, I thought she ran the best race. Mamba Out (#7) is back with this level after faltering with $30K N2L claimers in the mud two weeks ago. She was trending in the right direction, finishing a strong second behind Summer of Mischief, who was much the best in that 2/16 race. This filly was six lengths better than Risky Spirit and with that out running a strong race last time out, it helped to validate that race as the stronger of the two heats at this level that afternoon. She broke her maiden at this meet in January and should be more comfortable with this level today.

Race 6:

Time restricted $12,500-$10,000 claimers will travel 1 1/16 miles in the first leg of the Late Pick-5. I thought Toma Todo (#5) had a live look as a longshot in a $16K starter allowance race here two weeks ago. I thought he had a chance to wire that field and there was definitely some hidden class relief from his previous start. He was under pressure every step of the way on a course that was labeled good. It’s important to note that the track was sealed and the “good” designation was closer to muddy than it was to fast. His last three starts on sealed tracks were miserable. The course was sloppy yesterday, but with dry weather in the forecast, I’m expecting the track to be good or fast this afternoon. If it is labeled good, there should be no reason to seal the track as there’s no rain and sunny skies expected today. There is no early speed in this race, and this is definitely class relief once again for this seven year old who is looking for a rebound performance. Wartime Hero (#7) makes a lot of sense in this race. He just became eligible for this condition 13 days ago and he was a winner on this course with open $12,500 claimers two starts ago. He ran as a part of a coupled entry that went off at 4-5 in an open $16K claiming race last month and he finished third, beaten 1 1/14 lengths. He gets some class relief today and is much more desirable to me than W W Crazy (#6), breaking to his inside. I’ll be playing against that one who drops right after the claim again today. I’ll hope that the combination of Brad Cox and Florent Geroux will drive the price down a little farther here. Leader of Men (#11) gets a tough draw once again today, but he did run a good race in $16K starter allowance company last time out. He moved early while making a four wide bid, but he leveled off to be third that day. He might have to overcome a similar trip today while dropping in class. He might be a better underneath play, but he makes some sense with the right trip.

Race 7:

Three and four year olds will go 1 1/16 mile in this $50K N2L claiming race. Redfield (#1) is an interesting runner in this spot, because when he’s at the right level of competition, he runs a strong race. He was overmatched in his debut, but he ran a better race at two turns in his second start. He faced Dornich at Keeneland in his third start and didn’t run a step. He came here and dropped to a $75K maiden claiming race and broke his maiden at 13-1. He tried allowance company in his most recent start and was crushed when running against Northern Flame, who went on to be third in the Rebel and is running in the Jeff Ruby Steaks this afternoon at Turfway. The runner-up, Mena, is running in the Hot Springs Stakes coming up next. He was gelded since that start and draws the rail in a race where he should be able to sit close to the front end with his rail draw. I can see him rebounding nicely in this spot at a decent number. Apprentice Carlos Barbosa picks up the mount today as his regular rider, Nik Juarez, is riding Seize the Grey in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. Grant Forster typically has a stable based in Kentucky in the from the spring through the fall and he’ll keep a string of horses in New Orleans over the winter. He hasn’t started a horse here since the COVID season in 2020, but he’ll send out Single Ruler (#6) today. With the Fair Grounds closing up shop tomorrow and Keeneland not opening up for another two weeks, this seems like a move to get a race into a horse that needs to run. The condition makes sense, even though his last two starts have come in $50K starter allowance company. He was claimed for $30K back in September, so losing via claim wouldn’t be awful. Although it’s been over a year since he’s had his picture taken, he’s the most consistent runner in dirt routes in this field and the new face fits very well with this group. Seas of Normandy (#3) is a backup player in this race for me. He makes his third start off the layoff and his first start since the Cipriano Contreras claim. He missed the break last time when going six furlongs, which isn’t his best distance. His last win came at two turns on this course last season and this barn does well with new runners first off the claim. 

Race 8, The $200K Hot Springs Stakes: 

Three year olds go one mile in this race, which is designed for horses that aren’t quite ready for the Arkansas Derby next month. I do wonder if Asmussen is planning on starting Carbone (#2) in this race. Ricardo Santana Jr. is named to ride, but he’ll be riding in New Orleans for the signature card of the meet. His efforts in the Southwest and the Rebel suggest that he’s not ready for the top tier three year old races at the moment. The one mile distance of this race may attract some runners looking to run in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard or perhaps stretch out for the Boat House Row Stakes here at nine furlongs next month. The big name in this field is Nash (#6) for Brad Cox. He has yet to run back to the brilliant effort he had at Churchill when breaking his maiden back in November. He finished second and third to Track Phantom in the Lecomte and the Gun Runner Stakes while not really offering any pressure to him in the early stages of those races. Cox opted to race him in an allowance race on the Risen Star card as opposed to the featured race that afternoon. He set the pace in that three horse allowance race, but Tuscan Sky was the better horse in that race. With Otto the Conqueror (#1), Mr, Fillip (#4), and possibly Carbone all breaking to his inside, I don’t see him carving out the fractions in this race. He didn’t run his best race when settling off the pace in the Gun Runner Stakes. He stayed closer to a slow pace in the Lecomte and wasn’t able to run with Track Phantom, who had things his own way out front. The problem with looking for alternatives is that I don’t trust the frontrunners to be able to be as effective at the mile distance. Footprint (#5) is interesting, as I think there’s a possibility he could make up the five lengths on Nash in this race, with the right setup. However, McPeek has bad numbers with horses putting blinkers on for the first time, losing his last 27 races with this move. His last winner with horses wearing the hood for the first time came back in November of 2022. At the end of the day, I don’t have a viable alternative to Nash that I’m comfortable with. Cox has been a little more conservative with him of late, which is probably what this horse needs. I think he sits off the speed and will be able to pass the stretch-out sprinters in the short stretch. Footprint would be where I’d land as a backup on deeper tickets. I might upgrade him to the B line if Carbone does run, because I think that’s another pace threat in this race, which could be ripe for a pace collapse. 

Race 9, The $600K Grade 3 Essex Handicap:

I think Ain’t Life Grand (#1) has a big chance in the featured race this afternoon. He was dull in an allowance race when making his first start off the layoff last month. That is a pattern with him and it’s likely why Kelly Von Hemel opted to scratch him out of the Razorback Stakes that afternoon, in favor of that race a day later. He ran a monster race in the Lake Ouachita Stakes last year in his second start off the layoff, chalking up a 100 Beyer Speed Figure after a dull effort when making his first start of 2023 last season. We saw a similar pattern with him in 2022, taking a big step forward in the Prairie Mile after a dull try in the Bachelor here. He has only one win in four starts on this oval, but three of those races were right off the layoff. Wizard of Westwood (#3) has enough speed to keep the favorite, First Mission (#9) honest. That should allow Ain’t Life Grand to sit a perfect stalking trip where I expect him to nail the favorite on the wire. First Mission is the one they’ll have to beat in this race. He was excellent in November when just missing in the Grade 2 Clark at Churchill. That effort was good enough to make him the second choice in the wagering behind National Treasure in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational in January at Gulfstream. He wasn’t fast enough to run with Hoist the Gold and National Treasure in the early stages of that race. He was three wide and a little keen while racing in between horses down the backstretch. As National Treasure began to kick clear, he began to fall back, never having an impact in that race. Senor Buscador just missed in that race and he came back to win the Saudi Cup last month, validating the form from that race. He was much sharper in the morning last week at the Fair Grounds compared to his stablemate, Best Actor. Cox opted to run that one in the Grade 2 $500K New Orleans Classic today and send this one here for this $600K Grade 3 contest. I think he’ll rebound, but I like the top pick better today.

Race 10:

The day ends with a $45K state bred maiden claiming race. Denada (#7) is the pick in her second career start. She moved well in the later stages after getting away slowly in a $30K state bred maiden claiming race at the beginning of the month. She comes back in a spot that looks like a rise in class, but the difference between these two levels of competition is minimal. Trainer Kory Owns had a strong 2023 with only 29 starters, winning seven of those races. If she improves a little bit, she’ll be tough in this spot. Aurora Gee (#2) is dropping from state bred maiden special weight company, which does tend to be tougher. She ran into a pair of runaway winners in her first two starts. She did show considerable improvement from start one to start two and if he can duplicate her last start, she’s going to be tough to beat. I don’t love the 2-1 price in this big field, but she’s still a player. Sunnyandseventy (#4) comes back to a sprint race after coming up short in her two turn debut. She ran a big race two starts back with a similar field and after pairing her last two Beyers, she could be due to move forward as well. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 95/414 (22.9%, $963.60, $2.33 ROI)