Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/28/24 – By Eric Solomon

Arkansas Derby week starts with a nine race, Thursday afternoon card. Remember, there is no racing on Sunday this week for the Easter holiday. There’s a pair of allowance races at the end of the program that will highlight today’s card. Post time this afternoon is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

Arkansas Derby week starts off with a $20K maiden claiming race for three year olds and up. This is another race which is restricted to horses that have finished 2nd, 3rd, or 4th at this current meet. This race was split into two divisions, with the second coming in the 4th race today. There’s going to be a lot of money likely coming in on Last Diamond (#5) for Steve Asmussen. He makes his second career start after finishing off the board in a $50K maiden claiming race at the beginning of the month. He cost $675K, so the fact that he’s been in maiden claiming races for his first two starts tells you what his connections think of him. He does fit on a figures and slight improvement might very well be good enough to beat this group. However, there are red flags, so he’s strictly a backup play in the multi-race exotics for me. I’ll try a longshot, Macho Striker (#2) on top. He debuted last year in open maiden special weight company and did run terribly. He went to the sidelines and resurfaced in January, running twice with state bred maiden allowance types, catching off-tracks both times. His debut came on a good race course, so there’s reason to believe that he can move forward with class relief and a dry track. I would have preferred to see him run in the $45K maiden claiming state bred race on Sunday, because I do think he could have been a sneaky longshot at that level, which also carried a higher purse. That being said, I still think he fits with this group and could be a nice price play to start the card. Tap Valley (#8) has finished reasonably close to the winner in all three career starts. There are some gaps between the running lines and he does look like he’ll appreciate the class relief in this race. He makes sense in his second start off the layoff, and at longer odds than Last Diamond, I see him offering some of the better value in the field. 

Race 2:

Three year old fillies will dash six furlongs in this $30K maiden claiming contest. Catholic Sue (#4) is one of my stronger opinions on the afternoon. She drops in for a tag for the first time after three off the board finishes in maiden special weight company. Her best effort was a 4th place finish in her only start against restricted maiden special weight types two starts back. She faltered at two turns last time out, but that was a good field that she was up against. She returns to a sprint, moves to a higher percentage barn, while getting significant class relief. I think the morning line might be off in this race, as I’d be surprised if Mitole’s Legacy (#3) goes off as the favorite in her first start since July at Prairie Meadows. I see this Catholic Boy filly as the most likely winner in this race. I’ll back up with Top Review (#1) for Kory Owens and Triple AAA Ranch. Her sire, Top Hit, has four winners with 15 first time starters in dirt sprints, with two of those four winners coming in maiden claiming company. Her dam did all of her best work on the grass, but her first foal to race did run well in his debut and broke his maiden at this distance on dirt. 

Race 3:

Fillies and mares will go a mile in this open $10K claiming event. I’m intrigued with Halaga (#7) in this race for a variety of reasons. Norman McKnight claimed her for Bruno Schickedanz for $25K at Woodbine in October. He brought her here where she was claimed for $30K in her first local start. She finished 5th against an above average field for that condition. Eusebio Rufino moved her into allowance company in her first start off the claim and she had the misfortune of running into Zeitlos, who went on to win a stakes race in her next start. She dropped into a $16K claiming race where she was never a factor last time out. McKnight re-claimed her, but brings her back for a $10K tag, which is never something I love to see. However, she is at her best when she’s on or near the lead, and since her last few races have had opening quarters of 22 seconds or less, she hasn’t been able to sniff the lead in those races. She’s drawn post six  in this race, but there’s really not a lot of early speed for her to contend with. With the stretch-out to the mile, I don’t foresee such an aggressive first quarter.She has credible efforts at two turns on dirt and turf. Hashtag Winner (#9) is stuck on the outside for this race, but she’s one of the more consistent runners in this race, when racing on traditional dirt. She was not good during a recent three race stint at Turfway. Asmussen gave her a little time off and brought her back here with beaten $15K claimers in her last start. She split the field that afternoon, finishing 5th of nine, beaten less than four lengths. I don’t love that she’s 0-10 on this oval, but she’s second off the layoff and running for the leading trainer at the meet. Triple L’s Cutter (#3) was sent off as the post time favorite in the same $16K claiming race that Halaga was a part of. She came back and was handily defeated against a good allowance field in her last start. She had two straight wins at Remington prior to going off form when facing much tougher foes here. She’s another runner that makes some sense in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll back up with the Karl Broberg entry, Longleggedlaverne (#1) and Amazing Gal (#1A). Longleggedlaverne is coming off a win against lesser at Sam Houstin with $5k claimers. Amazing Gal won three straight before finishing off the board at the end of the Horseshoe Indianapolis meet. Broberg gave her some time off and brought her back to face $10K starter allowance foes in her last start. Her form was up and down last year, so she could be back on the upswing in her second start off the layoff. My biggest issue with this entry is that 2-1 for either of these runners feels very light. I’d probably want 4-1 or better on Amazing Gal and 6-1 or better on Longleggedlaverne. Assuming they both run, the two for one price is likely going to keep the numbers before fair market value. 

Race 4:

This is the second division of the $20K maiden claimer at six furlongs. The morning line favorite in this race is Look Sharp (#6), who is getting some hidden class relief in this race. In the form lines, his last race comes up as a $20K maiden claiming race, much like this one does. However, Arkansas breds were able to run with a $25K tag in that race, which was open to anyone. This race is restricted to horses that have failed to finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, at this meet. He was passed by two runners in the final steps to finish 5th in that race. The top two finishers were well clear of their rivals, making that an above average race for that condition. Unlike some of the others with several starts on their resumes, he’s been close to winning two races, both of which came at Lone Star last year. He’s another shorter price that is hard to build a case against today. Perscripture (#1) is the logical alternative to the favorite, making his second career start today. He was away a bit slow, but he was moving well late to get within a little more than six lengths of the winners in a state bred $30K maiden claiming race. The dam didn’t do much on the track on only one of her four foals to make it to the races has found the Winner’s Circle. I’m willing to give another look on a fast track, but I’d like to get a better price than the 3-1 morning line. 

Race 5:

There is absolutely no early speed signed on for this $30K state bred starter allowance race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. Mocha Kiss (#6) set the fractions last time out, but I don’t think she’s fast enough to beat the prime contenders in this race. At end of the day, I think the class of Kaboom Baby (#7) is going to rise to the top. She’s faced Sulwe (#4), who is the second choice in this race, three times in her career, and she’s finished ahead of that mare each time. She can sit close to the pace if she needs to, but she’s more than willing to run from the back of the pack as well. Kantex and Connie K have had her number this year in some of the better state bred races in this division. She’s able to dodge those runners today in a race that should set her up for a prime effort in the Natural State Breeders’ Stakes, a race that she finished third in last year, at the end of the meet. Between Rivercrest Girl (#3) and Sulwe, I’ll give the slight edge to Rivercrest Girl. She’s run well at this distance on the turf, and while she’s probably a better mare when racing on the grass, she has two wins in five starts on this oval. Sulwe has a big effort two back at six furlongs in the mud, but I think she’s going to be overbet, especially at this distance. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-4 begins with another $30K maiden claimer, this one for three year olds and up, going 1 1/16 miles. I’m not rushing to take 6-5 on Greers Ferry (#8) in this race. He just missed at this level last out, but I’m going to need to see him pair two strong efforts together before taking a short price on him to win. I’ll try Golden Diversion (#5) on top, while making his first start off the Ronnie Cravens claim. While it’s been a tough meet for this barn, Cravens still had decent numbers with runners first off the claim over the last 15 months. He ran decent races with lower level maiden claimers, so he is moving up in class. However, there’s little early speed to contend with here and I think he’s a candidate to improve. The same could be said for Famous Final Scene (#2), who drops in for a tag for the first time. He ran a decent race against a much better field two starts ago, on Opening Weekend. He was off the board in a maiden special weight race on New Year’s Eve and he’s been sidelined since. Donnie Von Hemel has decent numbers off the layoff and with runners dropping into maiden claiming company for the first time. He’s another one that could be forward in a race that is lacking some early zip. Deluca (#6) was a horse that was on my radar last time out when running in a similar spot. He was slow to go from the gate, leaving himself a lot of work to do. He was closing well, but ran into a tough spot and had to settle for fourth (third after being upgraded via DQ). He makes sense coming back at the same level and should be more competitive with a better start.

Race 7:

I’ll side with Kava (#6) in this $12,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. As one of the Arkansas breds in this field, Kava is running with a $20K claiming tag. She tried two turns for the first time on a sealed track that was labeled good, but looked closer to muddy. She drew the outside post and had a miserable trip, going five wide in the first turn without being able to tuck in at any point. She tried to mount a bid on the second turn while going wide once again, but she tired and finished 8th when facing a stronger field of state bred $50K-$45K maiden claimers. Her full brother, Westover, won his first two route races on this oval and her 4th place effort against a tough state bred maiden special weight field two starts ago wasn’t bad. I like that she has distance experience in a race where many are stretching out to two turns for the first time. I see her as a live longshot here. Boogie On (#4) is from the first crop of horses sired by Preservationist. His runners have won 14% of their first route races.His dam had a foal that won in his first try at two turns as well. Cristian Torres keeps the mount on this filly that is making her 5th start at this meet and her first at two turns. Money Is Time (#5) was claimed by Steve Asmussen after closing to finish 4th at this level last out. That was her first route race and her second career start overall. She didn’t have the best beginning in that race, but she still showed some improvement. She definitely has more upside than many in this spot, but 3-1 is a small price to take on any horse in this race. On deeper tickets, I’ll throw in the Tampa invader, Annamaria (#3). She’s one of two horses that are cross-entered in a tougher race tomorrow. John Ortiz trains her and Latifah (#2), so she may be eyeing the Friday race. She talked a slow pace in a $16K maiden claiming race at two turns on the dirt last time out. Her last two dirt races are not terrible, but for me, I would prefer to see a pattern of improvement with her speed figures.

Race 8:

There appears to be a lot of speed signed on in this optional $30K claiming/N1X allowance race for state bred three year olds and up, going six furlongs. The morning line pick is Atta Party (#7), who wants to be forward in this race. He has strong speed figures, but he’s struggled to hold in the stretch in his last few starts. With the likes of Miri a Coincidence (#1), Macho Rocco (#3), Didja (#5), and Macho Ronnie (#8) all in the mix here, not to mention either Peace Dog (#13) or Bettys Cash (#14) should they draw in, the favorite should have plenty of company in the early stages. That should set the table for a horse that likes to come from off the pace, and the new face in this division, Im the Machine (#11) fits that profile nicely. He’s been sidelined since May, and he’s making his first start for his new trainer, Donnie Von Hemel. He has decent numbers with new acquisitions and horses coming off longer layoffs. He’s a consistent six year old gelding, sired by Macho Rocket, who has allowance wins in open company in Oklahoma and Texas. This will be his first try over this oval and his first try against fellow Arky breds. He’s been facing tougher competition and should fit in this race well. Mahomey (#10) is the logical alternative, coming off a strong win against Lochmoor in a higher level optional claiming/allowance race here last month. That one has had a strong meet, finishing a close third in state bred stakes company and winning a strong starter allowance race last weekend since Mahomey beat him. Mahomey was a voided claim when he pulled off the 15-1 upset, so the fact that he’s dropping in class off that win and entered in this race with a $30K tag is a bit concerning. I’ll still cover with him because he’s been strong in his two starts at this meet and he should get the right setup. Peace Dog (#13) needs a scratch to participate, but he’s one that is dropping in class while facing some horses that are moving up the ladder. He was right there at the end, finishing a close third behind Mahomey and Lochmoor two starts ago. He took a swing in stakes company and came up empty at the beginning of the month. He has proven he can rate off the early speed, winning a few times using those tactics. His outside post should give him the chance to run that kind of race and he could get first run on the closers if he’s participating. 

Race 9:

The day ends with the co-featured race, which is an optional $80K claiming/N2L allowance race for three year olds going one mile. I think Count Dracula (#2) has a big shot in this race. He was recently a close up second in the Black Gold Stakes, which was taken off the turf. There were some horses with some proven dirt form in that race and the final speed figure was competitive. While this may be a bump up in class from that race, I think it’s not a huge move. He pair his first two Beyers in his first two dirt routes, so he could be sitting on a bigger effort today for Ken McPeek. He was entered in the Hot Springs last week, but I think it was wise to opt for this spot instead. His dam did all of her work on the turf and synthetic, but, she was sired by General Quarters, who was a graded stakes winner on dirt, turf, and synthetic. Temple City is best known for his turf runners as a sire, but his runners have won 11% of the time in dirt routes in the last five years. He’s drawn well for the race he wants to run and I think he is eligible to take a decent step forward. There is a potential for a strong early pace, so a horse like Willy D’s (#9) could be a threat to get rolling late. He finished a decent second to Time for Truth at this level at the beginning of the month. That one was allowed to set some moderate fractions that day, so getting into second was solid. He’s improved in his three starts at this meet since shipping in from Delaware for Greg Compton. Maximus Magic (#1) has the rail for his third start at this level. Draw a line through his effort two starts back where he misfired when facing Northern Flame. He came back to run a strong race to finish second in a race on the Rebel undercard. Seize the Grey was the winner that day and he just went on to finish third last weekend in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He’s another runner that wants be forward, but he’s coming into this race in good current form. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 100/433 (23.1%, $990.60, $2.29 ROI)