Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/29/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Friday card which sits on the eve of Arkansas Derby Day offers 10 races, highlighted by an exciting edition of the Temperence Hill Stakes. A loaded field of 13 will be traveling 1 ½ miles on the dirt in that contest. That race is sandwiched in between a full maiden special weight field in the 8th race and a full optional claiming/allowance field in the nightcap. This makes for some excellent betting sequences for horizontal players looking to build a bankroll for the massive 13 race tomorrow. First post today is the usual 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day starts off with a state bred $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race at six furlongs. Three runners, Brahms Image (#1), Secret Tavern (#6), and Vying Edge (#9), all have a similar speed and fade profile, and assuming they all make it to the starting gate, they figure to make things tough on each other. Hoppin John (#5) was a little keen when making his first start in six months last time out. He caught a muddy track that day when facing a better field, and tired late, finishing 7th. He ran well in his second start off the layoff two starts ago at Prairie Meadows and figures to get a favorable pace scenario for this race. I think he’s one that could be flying under the radar in this spot. Third Watch (#2) is another runner that should benefit from an aggressive early pace. He was a winner in one of the $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming races three starts back. He’s been spotted aggressively in his last two races, finishing off the board in both starts. He lost to Southern Sunset, who is a beast in the slop, in his most recent start. He seems to prefer a fast track, which he should be getting today. On deeper tickets, Partyinthestreets (#7) is a horse that is in need of form reversal. However, he does have some races on his resume, including an effort three starts back, that would be very competitive with this level.  

Race 2:

While I think the shorter prices are going to be tough in this $16,000-$12,500 N2L claiming race, I do think there’s an interesting case to be made for Philharmonic (#1) for Nick Zito. He was a dominating winner in maiden special weight company at Finger Lakes three starts ago. He didn’t beat much in that field, but he was drawn near the inside in a paceless race, and he responded with a resounding ten length victory. He finished off the board in his next two races at Churchill and Oaklawn when facing significantly better fields. Zito gave him a little break, similar to the one that he had prior to his maiden score. He has the rail and should have fast track to what figures to be a relatively easy lead. Bejarano is very talented on the front end, so I’m hoping that he can nurse his speed and save something left for the stretch run. Calrissian (#3) came up just short as the favorite in a $12,500-$10,000 N2L race in the slop two weeks ago. He’s been second best in both of his local starts and now he runs for Karl Broberg for the first time off the claim. He moves up slightly in class, but he should benefit from a fast track today. He has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance of the pacesetter. Ben Dreaming (#8) does have some early speed, but he is more tactical. I don’t think Torres is going to gun it with him from the outside post in this race. He can contend when he rates off the early lead, but he’s faltered when he has to fight to be out front. He’s had to contend with sealed racecourses in his last two starts, so I think he’s another one that could move up on a dryer surface today. 

Race 3:

This $30K maiden claiming race is another race where I’m struggling to get behind the morning line favorite. Thorny (#5) fits on class and figures in this race. She was third, beaten only a length and half in $100K maiden claiming company in her most recent start. She ran okay at the Fair Grounds in her two prior starts there, however she looked like a horse that was ready to win going away, but she idled both times. She was sent off at 5-2 in her last start and while she was in traffic, part of that was on her as she wasn’t quick enough to find the seam to go three wide. When she missed her spot, she waited in behind runners, and then ducked to the inside, but she wasn’t finishing with tremendous energy. This is a hefty class drop for a horse that cost $325K, and seeing as how Three Chimneys is a part owner, it’s clear they don’t love her as a broodmare prospect either. Valerie Blue (#7) is the play for me in this race. She just missed in her last start when facing $20K maiden claimers. She ran well getting back on the dirt after a three race stint at Turfway where she showed some forward progress when racing on the synthetic. Bejarano sticks around and I think she can win this race with a similar effort to her last start. Aunt Alex (#8) is a bit of an unknown commodity in this race. She has three career starts in a variety of races. She ran third in an off the turf maiden special weight route at the Fair Grounds at first asking. She got on the turf in her second start and was thoroughly humbled. She plummeted to $15K maiden claiming company in her last start, catching a sloppy track one again while sprinting six furlongs. She finished third in that race as well, never threatening the winner though. She was claimed by Asmussen off Brad Cox. She’ll get a fast track for the first time while coming back to a route race. While this isn’t a particularly deep field, I think I’d need a little better price than her 4-1 morning line. However, she could be a factor while moving up in class for her new barn. 

Race 4:

We have another $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race for Arkansas breds, but this one is at 1 1/16 miles, and it drew a full field of 12. Cybertown (#2) feels like the runner with the most upside in this race. He’s done his best work when going two turns, but he made his first start of the year in a sprint race when facing a significantly better field. He broke his maiden on this oval last year and crossed the wire first at this distance prior to that (before being disqualified to second). He doesn’t have a ton of early speed, but he’s tactical enough to find himself in a good early spot. He feels like a horse that is sitting on a better effort than his last start. Kinfolk (#8) makes his third start off the layoff and his first start at two turns today. All ten career starts have been contested between 5 ½ and 6 ½ furlongs. While his pedigree definitely leans toward sprinting, this is not a very deep field and he figures to be closer to the front end at this distance. Mr. Works (#9) broke through and graduated from the maiden ranks in his last start. Greg Compton started off slowly at this meet winning just three times with his first 42 starters. However, he has 5 wins with his last 17 runners, winning at a 29% clip in the month of March. This one will likely need to move forward in this race, but this is not the worst spot to try winners for the first time. 

Race 5: 

The Early Pick-5 wraps up with a beaten $10K claiming race. This race is for horses that have never won three times or horses that have not won a race in 10 months. Galactic Empire (#6) qualifies under the N2L condition and longshot Red Devil (#2) qualifies on both conditions. I think it’s hard to look past the shorter prices in this race. I’ll try Boldish (#3) narrowly over Mystery Mo (#1) in this spot. Boldish was a good looking horse on the NYRA circuit that had some physical ailments that created many gaps in his running lines. Moquett appears to have finally gotten him right, as this will be his third start in the month of March. His last two efforts have been solid, just missing by a slim margin in his most recent start. He’ll need to move forward once again to beat Mystery Mo, but he does appear to be progressing. Mystery Mo often runs a strong figure, but he keeps coming up short. This level might be his personal floor, which could get him over the hump while making his second start off the Diodoro claim. Cristian Torres should put him in play a little earlier than usual today, especially with the blinkers going on. On deeper tickets and underneath, Canadian Game (#7) could offer up a little value. He has 8 wins in 44 career starts (18%), but he’s 6 for 25 (24%) on a fast dirt track. His last several efforts have come on the synthetic, and he’s now nine years old. However, outside of the top two, there’s not a lot of runners that feel like legitimate threats.

Race 6:

An overflow field of Arkansas bred maidens run with a $20K claiming tag in this 1 1/16 mile route. I’ll try Doublecheck (#3) on top in his third career start today. He essentially paired his first two Beyer figures, finishing 6th at this distance in his first route last out when facing better. He broke sharply in that race, but as he found himself in the middle of five horses stacking up going into the first turn, things got a little tight and he took up and ducked out, carrying another runner wide and plummeting through the back of the field. He did show some tenacity while passing some runners in the stretch to get up for 6th. Mr. Works was the winner of that race and solid effort from him in the 4th race today could be flattering. I see some upside with him in this spot. Our Heavenly Gift (#1) draws the rail and likely wants to be out front in this race. He’s finished in the money in his last two starts when running in open maiden claiming races where state bred runners are eligible to run with a higher claiming tag. Those races can be a mixed bag, but the field he saw last time out is comparable to this field. He’s trending in the right direction, and while there are other horses that want to be forwardly placed, he has the pole position and could be tough to deal with late. Speaking Loud (#4) was absolutely empty after setting a contested early tempo in the same race Doublecheck is coming out of. With the Fair Grounds closing up shop, Brian Hernandez is riding here this week before likely heading to Lexington next week. He rode a great race to be second in the nightcap yesterday and he’s upgraded several horses in the limited times that he’s ridden at this meet. This is a horse that closed well in his debut, despite racing near the back of the pack, so I’m thinking that Hernandez is going to use his decent draw to tuck in behind the leaders and try to make a run late. I’d like to get better than his 4-1 morning line price, but I do think he’s better than what he showed last time out. 

Race 7:

The Late Pick-4 begins with a $40K starter allowance race for horses that have started for a $40K tag or less at least once since 2022 and have not won twice since October 29th. Many of the higher priced starter allowance races at this meet are restricted to horses that have yet to clear the N1X allowance condition so when making notes for the next start for many of these runners, this is a stronger race than a lot of the races that appear to be at a comparable level. Payne (#2) is the class of this field, running four races at this meet so far, and all four of them are strong enough efforts to likely beat this field. He is facing a softer group after narrowly missing in a stakes quality $62,500 starter allowance race. At this point in his career, this nine year old gelding likely isn’t a legitimate contender for the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, a race which he finished 6th in last year. He’s a closing sprinter, so timing his late bid is often a challenge for riders, especially at this distance. However, I think he’s going to be prove to be too tough at this level. Vodka Martini (#1) takes a big step up in class while making his first start since being claimed by Karl Broberg. He’s won three of four career starts with his only loss coming in a race contested at 1 mile and 70 yards at Delta. He ran a huge race in the slop with $30K N3L claimers at the Fair Grounds in his last start, and the ceiling is high for this four year old gelded son of Prospective. The fact that Broberg is keeping this one in a protected spot, tells me that he likes this horse a good amount. He’s had success turning talented claimers into stakes horses (think Greeley and Ben). He definitely has the most upside in this field, but this is a major class test, which is why I’ll cover with him. Breslau (#6) would be a horse that I’d upgrade if Chattalot (#4) doesn’t come back off the layoff in this race. There’s not a ton of speed signed on for this race, so Breslau definitely fits from a pace perspective. I worry that Chattalot, coming back after a five month break, is going to be a little more keen than usual. With Asmussen training him and Payne, the instructions for Santana might just be to let this one roll, which certainly could keep the pace honest for a deeper closer like Payne. If that scenario plays out, that likely hinders the chances for Breslau a bit. However, he was very game with N1X allowance company in his last start, finishing second to Favorite Outlaw, who is a nice horse. He’s another one worth using as protection in the even that the top pick leaves himself too much work to do.

Race 8:

A field of 12 has been assembled for this maiden special weight sprint going six furlongs. In the nightcap yesterday, we saw a Brad Cox horse with Flavien Prat riding, get absolutely hammered at the windows and finish off the board. I think Barstool Babe (#4), who gets Prat aboard for the first time, is going to be too short of a price for me in this race. While she is making her second start off the layoff, this hasn’t been a profitable angle for Moquett lately. She’s the kind of filly that runs nice races and puts up nice figures, but never seems to really threaten to win her races. I’ll play against her in this race. Ruby Queen (#8) is interesting to me, making his 5th career start and her first since joining Steve Asmussen’s barn. I think she fits the pace profile of this race nicely, especially with having the blinkers come off. I think a lot of these fillies and mares are going to be forwardly placed. She ran very well in the mud two starts back when finishing a close second when tracking the pace and making a run along the rail, despite having some traffic troubles. The winner of that race went on to win the Mockingbird Stakes in her next start. This filly faltered in her last start when trying two turns for the first time. She’s back sprinting in a spot where she makes a lot of sense as a rebound candidate. Tweetster (#1) is a first time start that is a half to Mr. Keating, who is a solid runner that broke his maiden at this meet. This filly has a long string of decent works for Norm Casse, who has decent numbers with firsters. Her sire, Practical Joke, gets 18% winners with debut runners in dirt sprints. My only issue with her in this spot is drawing the rail post in her debut with a full field. I think Santana is likely going to try to send, and she’ll have competition for the early lead. She could prove to be faster than these, but I do think she has a tough assignment. Alessia (#11) was the lukewarm favorite when making her first start in over a year a few weeks ago for Nick Zito. She showed some promise earlier in her career on the NYRA circuit before going to the sidelines for a long time. She’s more desirable in this spot after getting an important fitness test last time out. She’s almost certain to be a better price as well. 

Race 9, The $200K Temperence Hill Stakes:

13 horses are scheduled to travel 1 ½ miles in the feature today. I’m going to try O P Firecracker (#3) on top in this race, thinking that he has enough tactical speed to be close to the front, while maybe getting the jump on some of the back markers in this race. He’s coming into this race in good form, running a respectable 5th in the Razorback last out. He was very game when going nine furlongs in allowance company here two starts ago and he just issued in a ten furlong race at Churchill in November. He was competitive at Keeneland at this distance on grass, so perhaps that will translate in his first try on dirt at this trip. Red Run (#13) has a pair of in the money finishes at this distance on the dirt in stakes company, which automatically makes him a contender. He ran well in the Sycamore and the Connally on turf at this distance, but Maker has likely had this race circled to set him up for the Isaac Murphy next month. These races are especially important for him since the Brooklyn will be contested at ten furlongs this year while the Belmont renovations are going on. Even though it’s a long, three turn race, Esquivel is going to need to secure a decent position in the early stages to avoid losing excess ground into the first turn. Hayes Strike (#8) and Masqueparade (#9) are two longshots that have some upside while trying this distance for the first time. Hayes Strike is a definite plodder who was a two-time stakes winner as a three year old. He makes his third start off the layoff as a four  year old, so he could be sitting on a better effort. I would prefer to see McPeek give the nod to Brian Hernandez on this colt, as opposed to Classic Causeway (#12), who I don’t trust at this distance, especially on dirt. However, I’ve seen enough to consider him. Masqueparade is a six year old that was claimed for $80K by Robertino Diodoro two starts ago. He gave him some time off and brought him back in a one mile race here last month. We’ve seen Diodoro resurrect some of these higher priced claimers in these dirt marathon races in the past and this is a horse that has run well at nine and ten furlongs in the past.

Race 10:

The Friday nightcap is an optional $125K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles. I like Merasol Sugar (#2) a good amount in this race. She was a gate to wire winner on a wet track in her debut. She came back at this level in the beginning of the month and ran into a buzzsaw when she had to deal with Impel for Brad Cox. That one is likely looking at the Ashland for her next start. This Constitution filly drew even with the favorite, but was no match when they turned for home. Keith Asmussen rides her back today and he could do no better than four wide when breaking from her outside stall in that race. He had to put her in a drive early to try to take it to Impel. That was the right move, as he was testing the favorite who was being asked to get two turns for the first time. He conceded ground to her and still was able to hold off the late comers to earn second. She paired her first two Beyer figures and should be primed for a top effort in this race. She’s my best bet of the afternoon. I’m a Mess (#7) is the backup for me in this spot. She closed a ton to break her maiden in her third career start, which was also her first try on the dirt. She’s making her first start since November for McPeek. She’s another runner that I wish Brian Hernandez was riding, because I think this filly has more upside than When I Look At You (#11). I don’t mean that as a knock on David Cohen, who has always been a talented rider, I just think Hernandez rides this course exceptionally well and he typically gets the first call rides for this barn. I think she’ll be flying late and if there is a decent battle on the front end, she’d be my choice to pick up the pieces. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 101/442 (22.9%, $993.00, $2.25 ROI)