Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/7/24 – By Eric Solomon

The first Thursday card of the meet is a nine race program, highlighted by a one mile N1X allowance race for fillies and mares. That will go off as the 8th race of the afternoon today. After several beautiful days of racing, today’s forecast is not great. An off-track is a possibility to keep in mind. First post today is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The day begins with a $7,500 N3L claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. If Prodigious Bay (#2) is right, he’s going to be too good for this field. However, he’s taking a massive class drop, while running for a barn that one for their last 31 with winners when coming off a six month plus layoff. He has come up short off the bench before, which is important to note at this level. I’ll use him, but I’ll make Rackataptap (#3) the top pick. He has 2 wins and 2 thirds in 18 career starts. However, one of those two wins and both third place finishes came on a fast dirt track. The win came at this distance at Pleasanton last year. He has 14 starts on turf or synthetic with only one win to show for those races. Michael Hewitt brought him here where he recently finished 6th in the mud at this level. Dan Ward, who is a higher percentage trainer, claimed him and moves him back to two turns, where he seems most comfortable. Cristian Torres taking the mount is an added bonus for me. I like his chances in the opener today.

Race 2:

Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $50K maiden claiming contest. There’s two two short prices on the morning line, but I’ll try the second time starter, St. Olaf Rose (#8) in the top spot. She is coming off a 9th place finish in restricted maiden special weight company. She showed some speed before fading late. She adds Lasix for her second time out and Manny Esquivel sticks around as she drops in for a tag. Randy Morse is having a solid meet and he’s won with 15% of his second time starters over the last five years, and the majority of those runners were not favored in their given races. Just an Opinion (#7) is the morning line favorite after finishing 3rd in the same race, about eight lengths better than St. Olaf Rose. She was making her first start of the meet that day for Asmussen and she definitely outran her 20-1 odds by hitting the board in that race. Asmussen was red hot here in January and February, but he started off March by winning only once with 16 starters last week. She was competitive at this level at Churchill in November and figures to be in the mix once again. I do fear that her odds will be too light after that strong effort last time out. Miss Classified (#4) is an interesting runner for Kelly Von Hemel. She made her debut at Prairie Meadows where she ran into a buzzsaw named Kant Resist It. That filly had the benefit of having a start under her belt in that race and she went on to win a stakes race in her next start in Iowa. This filly has been on the sidelines since that August race and she makes her 2024 debut, while in for a $50K tag. I’m not sure what to expect from her here, but she’s not the worst price stab in this field. Business as Usual (#3) is the second choice on the morning line. She’s dropping out of a pair of maiden special weight races on off tracks here. Those fields that beat her weren’t the best though, and I’m not sure about her cutting back to six furlongs for this race. I’ll use her as a deep saver because of Brisset’s numbers with horses going from sprints to routes. She makes some sense underneath, but I don’t care for her on top.

Race 3:

A field of nine will go six furlongs in this $10K claiming race. I’m hopeful that the drop in class will help wake up Spotted Bull (#1), who is the preferred part of the Dan Ward entry for me. He was running solid races in the Mid-Atlantic region prior to being claimed by Ward at Delaware back in October. His first two starts for his new barn were underwhelming at best. He struggled to make any headway against a strong $10K starter allowance field here in December. He ran a little better at that level in his last start on a sloppy course at the Fair Grounds. His efforts at this distance are strong with his poor efforts all coming at longer distances this past summer. I think the class relief is useful and while I’d prefer a fast track for him, I still like his chances today. I won’t complain about having Bayron (#1A) on the ticket, however, if Spotted Bull were to defect from this race, I wouldn’t be using his stablemate. Good Heart (#8) crushed a field of beaten $10K claimers here last month while making his first start for Jonas Gibson. Six furlongs on a fast dirt track definitely seems to be his sweet spot, and while the fast track is not a given today, he did handle a sloppy course with ease at Ellis over the summer. I’m guessing he needed that race two back as he rebounded quite nicely from that dismal try. He’s shown he can run big races back to back, so I find him hard to ignore in this race. Lamutanaatty (#3) comes into this race in poor recent form, finishing off the board in allowance company here and at Sam Houston. Asmussen brings him back and drops him in class today. He was sharp on this course last season, winning in back to back starts in March and April. He was entered with a tag in both of those races and one of those two efforts came on a muddy course. He’s shown the ability to rebound from dull efforts in the past and perhaps getting on an off-track for the first time since March will help him revert back to his better form. 

Race 4:

The first of two divisions of a state bred $30K maiden claiming race at six furlongs goes here. Both divisions drew overflow fields with a total of 27 horses filling the entry box for this race. The morning line favorite, Moneystrike (#5) is not the kind of horse for me. He has ten career starts and is going to draw a lot of wagering attention because of the 60 Beyer Speed Figure that he posted while facing a similar field last time out. Consistency is not the hallmark of this professional maiden, who has struggled to put strong efforts together in back to back starts. I’m also not going to go back to the well with Dalton’s Rutrow (#10), who I’ve been trying to connect with in his last few tries. He had the lead, but gave it up late when facing $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers. As an Arkansas bred, he was able to run with this $20K tag. Some of those races were not particularly strong, so at best, this is a lateral move, if not a small bump up in class. I’m going to try some prices, using a few first time starters here. The top pick is Clear Echo (#12), who drew the outside post for Shea Stuart. His works are solid and his sire, Raison d’Etat, gets 13% winners with debut runners in dirt sprints. His dam has two other foals that have made it to the track. Neither won on debut, but one came close. Stuart had a debut winner at long odds in a maiden claiming race here last season. Prescripture (#9) debuts for Terry Brennan, who doesn’t have a great track record with first time starters. However, his dam has already had two starters at this meet, one of which debuted on Sunday. Neither of those runners have done much to speak of, however, this one has significantly better AM drills than his half siblings. His sire, Gentlemen’s Bet, has three winners with 17 first time starters in dirt sprints over the last five years. A total of 9 of those 17 runners finished in the money. There’s enough there for me to take a shot with him in this spot. Bet All the Gold (#4) made his first two starts in state bred maiden special weight races. He showed little in his debut, but he made some solid improvements in his second start. He broke from the rail and was sent for the front. He faded late, but his Beyer Speed Figure for that race was better than most of those with experience in this spot. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that he’ll improve while getting class relief. On deeper tickets, Crime Zone (#2) may be worth tossing in, especially if there’s an off-track. He has the highest Tomlinson Figure, indicating that he could be a horse that moves up on wet tracks. His debut was a disaster, but he’s been gelded and treated with Lasix for this start. Blinkers also come off today. While I don’t love all of these changes rolled into one, he’s still a second time starter that has the right to move forward, and at odds of 20-1 or better, it’s not crazy to roll the dice. 

Race 5:

The Early Pick-5 ends and the Late Pick-5 begins with a $10K starter allowance race for four year olds and up that have started at least once for a $10K claiming tag or less since the start of 2022 and have not won twice since November 7th, 2023. There are three short prices in this eight horse field, but I think when you look at the pace scenario in this six furlong sprint, there is one runner that stands out. Optimal Courage (#8) makes his Oaklawn Park debut today after narrowly missing at this level on the turf at the Fair Grounds last month. There’s not much speed signed on for this race, with the only real pace threat being Good Scout (#1) on the rail. I think his outside draw is a major plus, which will allow him to put moderate pace pressure on the rail horse, and then go on the attack on the turn. I think he can outsprint both Eternally Grateful (#2) and Junior Bug (#6) to the wire. Both of those horses are competitive closers and I’d like both of them better if there were more legitimate pace players in this field. However, I think both could make it close, but as is often the case in these six furlong races, they’ll run out of real estate. If I needed to back up, Eternally Grateful would be my preference of that duo, I also think Good Scout could be a stubborn foe on the inside. Inside paths were good on rainy days here last month. His recent form has been a cut below the top choices, hence the longer odds on the morning line. However, if for some reason, Optimal Courage would defect, I’d move him to the top pick line, as a lone speed threat. 

Race 6:

$20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers will start the Late Pick-4. State bred runners are the only ones eligible to run for the $20K tag. Everyone else will be in for $12,500. It’s tough to get excited about the 7-5 morning line price on Golden Diversion (#2) or the 9-5 morning line on Mo Moves (#3). The latter has run some competitive figures, but always seems to come up short. Golden Diversion ran a nice race on a fast track at 7-1 at this level in his first route race. That effort was good enough to make sure he finds himself on my tickets, however, his speed figures did regress in his one start in the slop. I’m putting him on the A line, but let’s get a little crazy and try Lucky Is My Name (#4) on top at a huge number. He drew an outside post in his third career start, which was also his first try on an off track and his first try at two turns. He hopped at the start and then had to check when Strickland (#9) darted in front of him to try to save ground when breaking from the outside. He didn’t corner particularly well on either turn, but he finished with enough interest to think that if some of the things that didn’t work out for him, went his way, he’d have run a stronger race. While I don’t know if he can run a race that is fast enough to beat some of the professional maidens like Mo Moves and Strickland in this spot, he’s only starter three times and his Beyer Figures have improved by double digit points each time. If given a choice, I’ll take my chances while getting a big price on a horse that has shown a pattern of improvement instead of getting short prices on horses that continue to find ways to lose. 

Race 7:

$125K-$100K maiden claimers are going one mile here. The shorter priced runners in this race have had several chances to break their maidens, and I’m not convinced they’re going to be able to do it today. Rocketeightyeight (#1) is interesting while trying two turns for the first time. He wasn’t terrible behind Time for Truth in his local debut back in December. He broke slow and was never involved last time out when facing a good field of older maiden special weight runners. He’s been gelded since his last start and he’s been working very well in the mornings. The other foals from this dam have won five times, with all of those races coming at a mile or longer. He draws a favorable post for this race and drops in for a tag, which has been a profitable trainer angle for Riley Mott. Melt With You (#8) tried two turns for the first time in the slop in his last start. He closed well late to get into third after being wide on the first time. He drew the ten hole for that race and he gets to move in two spots today. I expect him to be more competitive today. On deeper tickets, Manfredi (#5) is one that I would consider using. He was used hard to try to make the front last out on a sloppy course. He was three wide for the bulk of the first turn and was outside the pacesetter all the way down the backstretch. He came up empty in the stretch when Dimatic took charge. That was his first start for Chris Hartman, and while that race doesn’t look like a big improvement, I thought it was his best effort to date. He drilled a four furlong bullet work last week and could be sitting on a bigger effort today. 

Race 8:

Four of the eleven runners in this N1X allowance race are stretching out to a two-turn one mile route from a six furlong sprint. The most notable runner in that group is American Band (#3), who is the morning line favorite making her two-turn debut today. She debuted at a one turn mile at Churchill in September of 2022. Since then she has made six starts here at Oaklawn, all at six furlongs and all while racing with a tag. She has never finished off the board here, and her pedigree suggests that the one mile distance is within her range. Stretching out from sprints to routes are not profitable angles for this barn. I’m going to try to beat this one, who is moving up the class ladder today. Insensitive (#9) is the play for me in this spot. With three of the stretch-out sprinters in the first three stalls of the starting gate, she should have an honest pace to set up her late move. It took her a while to break her maiden, doing so in her 9th career start. She faced winners for the first time at this level in the slop last month and backed her maiden score with a strong second place effort. She makes her third start of the meet and is playable with any track condition. Xylophone (#10) is a clear upgrade on an off-track, having four career starts on wet surfaces. She has two wins and two seconds to show for those efforts. She closed from out of the clouds to miss by a neck at this level last month. She was excellent two starts back when winning at this distance in the slop against a strong starter allowance field at the Fair Grounds on Claiming Crown Day. A longshot to keep an eye on in this field is Too Pretty (#6) for Dan Peitz. She’s an Arkansas bred facing open company in her second start off the layoff. She returned to the races last month in a strong state bred allowance race that was about as salty as this field. That race was contested at six furlongs, but her game is in two-turn races. She was a winner at this distance last year and she’s been competitive in open company in the past. She does want to be forward, so drawing outside of the other runners stretching out could be a concern. However, at longer odds, she’s the one that has a proven track record at this distance, and the value should be markedly better.

Race 9:

Division two of the state bred $30K maiden claiming contest wraps up the Thursday card. On paper, the shorter prices in this race seem to have a decent advantage over the longer prices. I’m not seeing anything that interests me with the first time starters in this spot, so I’ll try to keep myself alive to the three favorites. Preacher’s Kid (#2) interests me the most, cutting back from a two turn race in his last try. He was wide early on, and despite making a bid on the second turn, he flattened out to finish 4th, 12 lengths behind the winner. He ran well in the mud two starts back when he finished second, a length better than Sir Peel, who was a next out winner. I think that route race will give him the fitness level that he needs to graduate from the maiden ranks today. Amazing Success (#7) had a daylight lead last time out when he was making his second career start. He appeared to be home free as the favorite, but he slowed down significantly as he was passed by Chez Whiz, who gained over six lengths on him in less than a furlong. He’s been in the hunt at this level and he is a deserving favorite. An off-track is a bit of a question mark, but he’s been too good to ignore. Sunday Spirit (#3) was third in his last start, finishing 1 ½ lengths behind Amazing Success. He opted not to run back two weeks ago, waiting for this spot to make his third start of the meet. He rebounded nicely from a disastrous debut in December. He’s another one that figures to be right in the mix in this race.

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 75/318 (23.6%, $785.80, $2.47 ROI)