Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 3/8/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s 10 races on this Friday afternoon card at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas. The featured race this afternoon is an optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance contest for fillies and mares going one mile. Weather was a factor as the course was sloppy throughout the afternoon yesterday. There are some more scattered showers and storms forecasted for today, so watching the track feed for weather and track condition is going to be important for any off-site player. First post for the Friday afternoon program is 12:30 (CT).

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

We’ll start the day with a maiden special weight contest for fillies and mares, three and up, going six furlongs. The effort from Bellaju (#3) is better than it looks on paper. She went to the front and was traveling comfortably on the lead. She was pressed by Hurricane Fire (#9), who is once again drawn outside of this filly today. While I don’t think she was going to be able to hold off Popperina, who was the dominating winner, I do think she was going to finish better than she did if she wasn’t squeezed and forced to take up sharply in the stretch. I don’t think this is a particularly strong field and I see her as a logical candidate to improve in her second career start. She’s a horse worthy of using as a single in the Early Pick-5. If I do back up, I’ll try one of the two first time starters, Tandi Sue (#4). The dam won all of her career races on the grass. However, her sire, City of Light, has won with 16% of his debut runners in dirt sprints. The works are solid enough to suggest that she could compete with this group today.

Race 2:

Arkansas bred fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in this $50K-$45K maiden claiming race. Seven of the ten runners here will be trying two turns for the first time. I think Honduras Passion (#3) is an interesting longshot while making her third career start today. She reared up a bit in her first few strides out of the gate in her most recent start at this level. She broke from the rail that day and perhaps she was spooked a bit when the runner outside of her drifted in a bit. She made up some ground with a decent middle and finished with some interest, despite never really having a clear path to run through. Her dam was sired by Brahms, whose biggest career win came in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby at nine furlongs on the turf. Both of the dam’s career wins came in races at two turns on the dirt. Her sire is Mark Valeski, who was a multiple graded stakes winning dirt route horse. His runners are winning 19% of their first route races thus far. His sire was the run-up to War Emblem in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, Proud Citizen. Her trainer, Kim Puhl, has good numbers with runners going from sprints to routes, so perhaps this longshot could get her off the duck for this current meeting. Kava (#10) is another runner that has a pedigree that suggests she’ll be more effective at two turns. Her sire, Double Irish, is 3-20 with his runners in their first route races on dirt. Both of her full siblings broke their maidens in maiden claiming races on this oval, with Westover doing it at two turns. I don’t love the outside draw, but I do see her as another filly with some upside in this spot today. Cashmere Baby (#8) and Blue Ember (#2) are the favorite and second choice in the morning line. Both fillies have distance experience, which does feel meaningful in a race like this. Blue Ember lost by the narrowest of margins in her last start when facing $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers. Cashmere Baby was the runner-up when she was beaten by 4 ½ lengths in the faster division of that same race. Both of these fillies are worth using as backups in this spot.

Race 3:

I think Lundberg (#6) makes a lot of sense in this $55K-$50K N2L claiming race. He was nailed on the wire last out in a $45K-$35K N2L claiming race on a day where he was claimed for $45K. Two starts back he broke his maiden with $40K maiden claimers, where he was also claimed. Armando Hernandez is a very shrewd claiming trainer, winning with 32% of his starters first off the claim in the last five years. He has improved, winning with 39% of his starters fist off the claim in the past two years and 50% of those runners in the past year. He claimed a well-bred horse that is in good form who has been right there on the wire in his last four starts. Since Hernandez is not yet a household name, especially at Oaklawn, there’s a chance that his runners could be flying under the radar just a bit, so hopefully the value will be there. I don’t think this is a particularly deep field, so I do see him running a big race. Classic Moment (#3) is the morning line favorite, and while I don’t see him as the most likely winner, I do see him as the wild-card in this spot. He’s making his first start in 13 months today and if he comes back to the track as the same horse that he was last season, I see him winning this race. There’s no guarantee that is going to be the case after that kind of layoff though and the fact that he’s entered for a tag tells me that Asmussen thinks he could have lost a step. The fact that he was gelded since his last start also could be an explanation for the drop into the claiming ranks as his owners do have a breeding program. The works are solid and Asmussen has respectable numbers with runners off longer layoffs. 2-1 is a tough proposition for me to take on him, even in this smaller field. However, I do think he’s worth using as a saver because I do think a version of him at 85-90% of what he was last year might be good enough to win this race. 

Race 4:

Bottom $10K maiden claimers will go six furlongs here. The four Arkasnas bred runners that entered this race are able to run with a $16K tag. Chadron (#4) is the most interesting runner in this race for me. After starting off March with a 1-16 weekend, Steve Asmussen had two winners yesterday, a came within less than a length of having two other winners. This Arrogate gelding was claimed for a paltry $7,500 at Turfway two starts ago. Asmussen brought him to Sam Houston in Texas where he tried the turf for the first time, which felt like a logical decision, seeing as how his dam was a multiple Group 1 winner on grass overseas. Her runners in the States haven’t done much, so competing at this level feels about right. His best career speed figure came on the dirt in his debut and I think he’ll be tough getting back on the main track and cutting back in distance. There’s some upside with Flyherbflyhigh (#5), who is a five year old gelding making his second career start. He was away slow, but he had some run late, getting within a little more than five lengths of the winner. His momentum was temporarily halted when another horse drifted into his lane while he was advancing from the back of the field. He ended up ducking to the rail and getting up for 6th. He is five years old, so I do wonder how much he’s eligible to improve. However, this is a soft group and if he can improve between 5-7 Beyer Points, he has a reasonable chance in this race. I don’t playing recently claimed horses that drop well below their claiming price, but I do think I’ll wind up covering with Mischievous Max (#1). Flurry Racing Stables has been making moves like this often throughout the meet, so it’s not a surprise that they have a comfortable lead in the owner’s standings. He was claimed for $40K out of his debut and was wide and dull with $30K maiden claimers last out. He paired his first two Beyer Speed Figures, so there’s reason to believe that he can improve in his third start, while also plummeting in class. I don’t want to take a short price on him, but options are limited in this race. 

Race 5: 

A field of 10 fillies and mares will go one mile in this $10K starter allowance race restricted to horses that have started for a $10K claiming or less in at least one of their last two starts. Three of the shorter priced runners in this race are coming out of a $12,500 starter allowance race last month. Although they were not favored that day, the top two finishers in that race would not be eligible to run under the conditions of this race. I think that trio stands out in this race. Miss Distinctive (#1) was 29-1 in that race and she outran her long odds to finish 4th that day. She was making her first start off the Matt Shirer claim, and I think it’s a positive that he continues to run her in protected spots. That last race was her first try at two turns in her 13 career starts, and I thought her performance was encouraging. She fought on gamely despite being in between horses, which can be uncomfortable for some horses. She makes her third start off a layoff today and blinkers go on for the first time. I think she can improve in this spot. Priddis (#4) was also claimed two starts back and she makes her second start for her new connections today. She had to overcome some ground loss when finishing third in the aforementioned starter allowance race last month. This one mile distance is her sweet spot, winning four times in seven tries. Two of her losses came at Ellis with a funky mile configuration. She gets some class relief and should get a sweet stalking in this race. Cristian Torres rode West Side Girl (#8)last out, but he winds up on Beachgrass (#7) today. I prefer his mount today, who was 5th in the same race that the top two choices are coming out of. She lingered at the back of the pack that day while passing some runners late. She was making her first start since October and she had finished in the money in her four previous dirt route races prior to that last start. I see her taking a small step forward in this race, and that should get her close. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-5 begins with a $12,500 N2L claiming race for fillies and mares. There are several runners coming back from a race at this same condition three weeks ago, along with some faces that make up this overflow field of 14. The second choice on the morning line, Mamba Out (#6) is cross-entered in a $30K N2L claiming race tomorrow, so if she opts for that spot, that would be a fairly big defection from this race, since she was the second place finishers in that race at this level on 2/16. She is a contender at this level with her forward progress since the Moquett claim. She’ll need some defections to participate, but I think Oh My Gawd (#14) is an interesting runner if she does get to participate. She’s guaranteed the outside stall if she runs in this race, which should be welcome after breaking from the rail in her last race. She was a bit flat-footed from the gate and had to be used pretty hard to make the lead while securing the rail position. That race wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper as she was forced to check when getting in tight just off the turn. At that point her race was run and she was allowed to canter home. The outside post will be a little more forgiving and the class relief will be welcomed after struggling with better fields in her last two starts. Show Me the Candy (#7) would be the top selection if Oh My Gawd is unable to draw in. She was claimed by Asmussen for $15,000 and she paid instant dividends by winning a $24K-$20K maiden claiming race in her first career sprint race on a traditional dirt track. She’s a three year old, so there’s room for improvement and this feels like a very reasonable spot to face winners for the first time. I think there is a decent amount of early speed signed on, so she could be able to to work out a nice stalking trip like she did in her last start, I don’t love the rail draw for Chip Shortage (#1), but there’s a reasonable chance that both Mamba Out and Oh My Gawd don’t run in this race. That would eliminate some of the early speed, which could help her cause. She faded to 4th at this level last out and now will get a nice weight break with the apprentice, Joseph Bealmar taking over. 

Race 7:

Beaten $12,500 claimers will go 1 1/16 miles in the first leg of the late Pick-4. To be eligible for this a horse, a horse must have either never won three races or they have not won a race (excluding those for $7,500 or less) in the last six months. Longshots Deep State (#8) and El Franco (#12) qualify for this race under both conditions, but everyone running in this race is eligible under the N1Y condition. There are definitely plenty of options in this race. Kowboykabin (#5) gets the nod from me while dropping in class for Wade Rarick. He was not involved when making his local debut with $20K N1Y claimers last month. He was very good two back at Remington and he ran well on the dirt in Northern California last year at the Big Fresno Fair. He wants to be forwardly placed in a race where there isn’t a dedicated frontrunner. California Swing (#2) makes sense in this race, making his first start since joining Randy Morse’s barn. This ten year old pro has 16 wins in 86 career starts, and a career bankroll of over $466K. He looked good on this course last season and the rail draw should ensure a ground saving trip. He was a winner in December with open $5K claimers, thus keeping him eligible for this condition. Seaside Boy (#11) is a 30-1 longshot that has a live look in this race, assuming that he can run back to his race two back. He went on a three race win streak last year (four if you’re counting a race here in which he was disqualified from purse money well after the fact). That streak came to an abrupt end when he was pulled up and vanned off in consecutive races in Iowa. He was well-beaten in his return when he was entered in a contentious N1X allowance. The runner-up in that race was King Russell who was the runner-up in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last year. He was very dull after a tardy break in starter allowance company last time out. If you’re willing to forgive that race, which is a big if when looking at his most recent bodies of work, he’s a runner who has had success on this oval and is taking a deep drop in class. Greatheart (#9) is a much shorter priced backup for me here. He’s another runner from Flurry Racing who is trained by Cipriano Contreras. He was a model of consistency going into his last race where he was quite dull. He was claimed for $30K out of that race and comes right back in a race with a $12,500 tag. As was the case earlier in the card, this is not a move I endorse, however, it is a move that this owner and trainer have done successfully at this meet. 

Race 8: 

If you’re familiar with the work I do on a day to day basis, I’ll often remark that not all starter allowance races are created equal. When you look at the DRF PP’s, there’s no real designation of what other conditions are present other than the starter allowance amount. When you look at the PP’s for Toma Todo (#3), you’ll see “Alw 10000s” as the condition of his last race, and “Alw 8000s” as the condition to a race that he was in three starts back. At the top of the form, today’s race is designated “Alw 16000s”, which on the surface, looks like a rise in class for a horse that ran poorly in both of those races. However, when you read the full conditions for this race, you’ll see that to be eligible for this race, a horse had to have started in a race with a $16K claiming tag or less in their last three starts AND have not won twice since August 8th in races where the claiming tag is $10K or less. The last race that Toma Todo was entered in was open to horses that have run for a $10K tag only once since the start of 2022. The race three back carried a purse of $75K at the Fair Grounds (on Claiming Crown Day) and was open for horses that started for an $8K claiming tag or less once in their careers. As a  result, those races were much tougher than the field that he is facing today. Toma Todo has three wins since September 1st, however, only the $5K starter allowance win at Remington in October counts toward that condition. Toma Todo was very good when breathing open $7,500 claimers two starts back when breaking from the far outside post. He can win with some moisture in the track, but the dryer the surface is, the better he runs. The course was sloppy yesterday and there are scattered showers and storms in the forecast today. While I might not be as bullish on him if the course is sloppy or muddy today, I’ll keep him as the top pick because I do think he can compete at this level and I think there is hidden value on this runner in this race. Bandera Azteca (#8) stretches out to two turns after a pair of solid efforts in sprint races in his last two starts. He was a winner on a muddy course two starts back when beating a conditioned $10K claiming field. Karl Broberg claimed him out of that race and he kept him in a protected starter allowance race here last month. That race is labeled “Alw 12500s” in the PP’s, but that race was restricted to horses that ran for a $12,500 tag at least once in their past three starts. He ran into a very fast horse, Therideofalifetime, who qualified for that race and was able to win rather easily. Bandera Azteca ran well in defeat to finish second that day and now Broberg gets him back in a route race against a field that is slightly lesser than the group he is up against today. He does have a win at this distance and he’s in very good form right now. Efficiency (#7) is a longer priced option that could be interesting in this race. He faced a much better N1X allowance field in his last start where he finished 7th. He has run well on off-tracks and has a win at the distance as well. I think he’s another runner that makes some sense while going from a sprint to a route. I’ll also back up with Mystery Mo (#6) in this race. He definitely fits on speed figures and is in good form right now, but he’s one of those horses that has three times as many second and third place finishes as he does wins. Greg Compton had him for a while and he was a good earner for him despite not winning any of the races where he was the trainer of record. Diodoro claimed him for $16K last out and now moves him to a protected spot. While that’s all positive, at shorter odds, I’d prefer to try to beat him on top and focus on him underneath. 

Race 9:

It’s hard to build a case against Free Like a Girl (#1), who is a wildly successful Louisiana bred mare that has 15 wins in 35 career starts, while banking over $1.1 million in earnings on the track. That’s not too shabby for a horse that cost her connections $5,500 back in 2020. She has finished in the money in multiple graded stakes races in open company, nearly pulling off a mild upset in the Houston Ladies Classic two starts ago. She gave up the lead late in the Premier Distaff Stakes last month in the slop at Delta. A wet track is not her favorite, but it’s also not a deal breaker. Most of her wins have come in state bred stakes races, so she remains eligible for the open N2X allowance condition. With a purse of $141K, this open race that she’s entered in carries a higher purse than 16 of her last 17 races. Her lone start here came against Secret Oath in the Grade 3 Honeybee in 2022, so finishing off the board in that race doesn’t feel so bad. She has risen to the challenge of facing open company before and I think she’ll be a tough customer to run down in the featured race today. Into Disco (#9) is the backup play for me in this race. She ran a distant third at this level in the mud last out when making her first start since May. That was not a terrible effort, as her speed figure was close to her best. She has a pair of wins on this oval and could be tougher to handle in her second start off the layoff. 

Race 10: 

The card is bookended with maiden allowance races, this one for three year old boys though, going six furlongs. I think the nightcap runs through Cox or Asmussen as they have a combined three runners that are tough. I think most of the attention is going to be focused on Cox’s Morunning (#5) and Asmussen’s Happy Grey (#8). They faced off last month on the Southwest undercard and finished fourth and third respectively, with only ½ length separating them. While I liked the effort from both runners, I’m going to try the other Asmussen runner, Hailstorm (#6) on top. He debuted at Churchill back in June in a 5 ½ furlong dash. He ran an even 4th that afternoon, but was given some extended time off. His dam has produced three runners in total, all sired by Gun Runner and all bred by Winchell Farms. One of them was sold at auction and didn’t amount to much. Winchell decided to keep both this colt and a now four year old filly named Stunningly. Stunningly didn’t do much as a two year old, but she substantially improved in her three year old season, culminating in a maiden special weight victory at Saratoga in the summer. Hailstorm has been working well at the Fair Grounds and while it’s possible that he’ll need this race, which will be his first in nine months, I think the potential is there for him to upset this field. Morunning might have ran the better race than Happy Grey, seeing as how he was bumped, squeezed, and forced to steady in the first hundred yards. He ran on well from the back of pack, finishing with interest to get into 4th. Happy Grey was three deep on a course that played kinder to horses in the inner lanes. He battled with a more experienced runner, who also had rail position. He tired late to be third, suggesting that there’s more in the tank for him. He’s likely going to have to battle with Major Mack (#11) in the outside stall and possibly one or more of the firsters as well. He did show that he can be comfortable on an off track, which could come in handy today. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 78/327 (23.9%, $806.80, $2.47 ROI)