The week ends at Oaklawn with a nine race card, headlined by a few nice allowance races at the back end of the card. Adare Manor and Skelly lived up to the hype as they scored in dominating fashion in the two big races yesterday. After an early start on Saturday, first post this afternoon is back to the usual 12:35 (CT).
I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!
| Race | Top Pick | A | B | C | Exotics Menu |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 1,6 | DBL, PK5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3,8 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 1,2,3 | DBL, PK3 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 4,5 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 5 | 8 | 6,7,8 | 5 | DBL, PK3, PK5 | |
| 6 | 7 | 7 | 1,3,6 | DBL, PK3, PK4 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 9 | DBL, PK3 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1,3 | 2 | DBL | |
| 9 | 1 | 1,4,14 | 12,13 |
Race 1:
Seven fillies and mares start the day in a $30K N3L claiming race at one mile. This race is a tough nut to crack, but I’ll try Tyrona (#2) who is second off the claim for Lindsay Schultz. I thought this mare wasn’t terrible in N1X allowance company in the mud last out. She has inside position if she wants to go to the lead, but she’s also capable if she defers. Juarez and Schultz are both better when they’re together. Lady Commander (#1) is tough to take as the favorite in this spot, but if her last race signals that she’s back on the right track, she may get the right set up here. She’s starting at 5-2, and I’d likely need 4-1 or better to be on board. Delphia (#6) has not finished strong in her last several starts. She is however dropping in class and facing a group that doesn’t seem to know what they want to do. At this distance and level I do expect her to be more involved.
Race 2:
Beaten $8K claimers go a brief 5 ½ furlongs here. All nine runners qualify under the non-winners of a race since August condition, with Reup (#4) also qualifying under the N3L condition. Just about every horse has a race on file that would be good enough to win this race, the probably that the current form is lacking for many of these, and while I could pick any longshot in this race, there would have to be a form reversal that I’m not seeing on paper. Desoto’s War (#3) is the pick because he’s been running consistent races and now that he’s making his first start off the Karl Broberg claim, I could make a case for him to improve a little bit. He’s been close with beaten $5K claimers in his last two starts at the Fair Grounds. I don’t think there is a vast quality difference between these two conditions, at least with this current field. Palace Kitten (#8) is the morning line favorite, taking a slightly less dramatic claim and drop move than some of the other horses that Jonas Gibson has claimed for Flurry Racing Stables throughout this meet. Most of his recent Beyer Figures on the dirt would be good enough to win with this field. His last three races have been at two turns on the turf, so this is quite the shift. He does have one start and one win at this 5 ½ furlong distance, which can be a little tricky for some horses.
Race 3:
Three year old fillies will sprint six furlongs in this $40K-$30K claiming race. When January Jubilee (#3) doesn’t face Hush It Honey, she’s a perfect 2-2. She was only two lengths behind her stablemate, Ready for Trouble (#1) last out, and there’s reason to believe that she can improve off that effort. I’ll give her the slight edge to turn the tables on Ready for Trouble, who was facing better horses in her last several starts. She was a game second with $50K claimers in the fall. She can sometimes leave herself too much work to do by getting away from the gate slowly, so it’s hard to be too confident playing her as the heavy favorite in this spot. Sister Ella (#2) may be the pacesetter from her inside post. Draw a line through her last at two turns in state bred stakes company. Her effort was excellent three starts back when breaking her maiden at the Fair Grounds when facing fellow Louisiana breds. If she can shake free, she might keep going.
Race 4:
Fillies and mares will go one mile in this $50K maiden claiming race. Let’s try Run for Home (#6) making her first start on dirt and her first start for Timothy Martin. She’s sired by Gun Runner, so she figures to run her best races on the dirt. She wasn’t terrible on turf or synthetic in her first two starts at Gulfstream. Her works are decent enough to think that she can beat this group, which isn’t the strongest for the condition. Mor Happy Hours (#5) was a close second when sprinting at this level back in January of 2023. She was on the bench for over a year and she returned with an even effort in maiden special weight company. She drops in class and tries two turns for the first time. I do think she could move forward in this spot. Tandi Sue (#4) is worth another try at two turns after a wide and disappointing effort with maiden allowance types last out on an off track. This barn does well with runners dropping in for a tag and she figures to get a better trip on a more comfortable surface.
Race 5:
The hinge race for both Pick-5 wagers is another $30K N3L claiming race, however this one is contested at six furlongs. I see this as a wide open race where I’d like to have some coverage. Balsa (#8) is the top pick, getting back on a fast track and dropping back to the $30K level. He cleared the N2L condition two starts back and was claimed by Ronnie Cravens that day. They went fast early in that race and he was in chase mode. He likes the track and distance and getting Cristian Torres aboard should help his cause. Cactus (#7) is a bit of an all or nothing horse. He won his first two career starts here in 2023, but he’s been shutout in his five starts since. He was third at this level in his last start and he was claimed by S. Jade Cunningham out of that race. I think getting back to six furlongs after going 5 ½ last time out is a plus. Blinkers are going in for the first time, which could help his cause. I think the trips that he had in his two victories are winning trips with this group and he’s one of only a few that are proven with that kind of style. Absolute Chaos (#6) has had to deal with off-tracks in his last five starts, dating back to January of 2023. He was claimed for $50K three back, so entering with a $30K tag isn’t great. He has been competitive and his best work has come on fast surfaces. As a deeper saver, I’m a little intrigued with Crocodile Tears (#5) making his first start since August. Early speed is his game and he might be a little more keyed up than usual while coming off the break. He’s never finished off the board in six career starts and he’s been on the lead at the first call in all four dirt starts. There’s other speed in this race, but he may be able to get the jump on them. At longer odds, I’d consider trying him.
Race 6:
Thai state bred allowance race 1 1/16 miles will likely serve as a prep race for the Arkansas Breeders’ Championship at the end of the meet. I don’t think there’s much separating Dinner At Crumpies (#1), Lochmoor (#3), and Black Apple (#6), especially at this distance. My dilemma is that they all have the same kind of running style and there’s really not a lot speed signed on for this race. If Man in the Can (#7) is going to get back to close to where his best form was, this is going to be the spot. He’ll get a fast track after dealing with some wet tracks in his last two starts. He’s gradually improved his speed figures, climbing back into the 70’s last time. He’s at his best when he’s on the lead and if apprentice Carlos Barbosa wants it, he should be able to get it. He was a winner in a similar spot last year and in terms of fit, this might be the spot for him so far this season. I think the other three are all worth backing up with. I think there’s a little more value to be had with Dinner At Crumpies, despite losing to both Black Apple and Lochmoor in his last twp starts. He’s another one that should benefit from a fast track. His inside draw will help him save ground, but Walter De la Cruz is going to have to be able to get him out of there as well. Despite winning last out,m I still think Lochmoor is more effective as a sprinter. He was undeterred by the wet conditions in his last start and he’s had a productive meet, winning twice already. He has five career wins though and he’s never gone back to back. Black Apple has three straight wins coming into this race. He beat Lips Say Bliss, who is a very nice horse, in open company two starts back. He may have bounced a bit, but he still got the job done. He’ll have to prove he can be as effective on a fast track today.
Race 7:
Three year olds will dash six furlongs in this maiden special weight race. I like Capital Connection (#5) quite a bit in this spot. He’s making his third career start after pairing his Beyers in his first two starts while navigating sloppy courses. He finished in the money both times, despite facing runaway winners. His Tomlinson numbers are on the lower side, so I expect a forward move while getting a fast track today. He runs for Norm Casse, whose business has been getting better after a slow start to this meet. Ricardo Santana, who won the Count Fleet with Skelly yesterday, has won 33% when teaming up with Casse at Oaklawn and everywhere else. Charbon (#9) was a bad actor before his debut last out in the same race that Capital Connection is coming out of. He was away slow, but he finished with some interest, coming within two lengths of the top pick. Coty Rosin has good numbers with second time starters and his outside draw is a plus. If he can conserve some energy by skipping the pre-race antics, that would certainly help his cause.
Race 8:
While many runners in this race are coming off races where they posted big speed figures, I’m not convinced that many of them can back them up in this N1X allowance. Breslau (#3) on the other hand has been awesome at this meet. He has two wins and two seconds in four starts so far, putting up strong Beyers in each one. He was caught late at this level two back but he was dead game with $40K starter allowance types last time out. There’s other speed in here, but I think he has the inside track and could prove to be tough to catch. Vodka Martini (#1)is interesting in this race at longer odds. His race was over at the break last out when he veered in at the start. He lost position and then shied away when in tight down the backstretch. While I don’t love him drawing the rail again, I like to see that Broberg is keeping him in a protected spot, at least for one more start. Cristian Torres had two more winners yesterday, and I like that he is sticking around. He took money last out, and I’d like to get better than 8-1 (ML), but I do think he can rebound in this race. Manta Ray (#2) continues to run strong races despite being overlooked by bettors at this meet. He won a $50K N3L claiming race two starts back and he might get the right pace in this spot to set up his late bid.
Race 9:
The day will end with a $12,500 maiden claiming race at one mile. Arkansas breds will run with a $20K tag in this race that starts and ends at the 1/16 pole. You’re On Mute (#3) and Captive Audience (#8) are the two shortest prices in the field. Both horses could easily win this race, but I don’t like the drop in class for either, so I’m going to try to beat them. Stillbilly (#1) gets the rail for his two turn debut. He ran a credible third with state bred $30K maiden claimers in his last start. He caught a sloppy course that day and finished 5 ½ lengths behind the race winner. Ron Moquett’s horses aren’t typically fully cranked for their debuts and the fact that this one is going two turns today tells me that he likely has shown signs that he wants to go longer. With the apprentice, Erik Asmussen riding, he gets in 12 and 16 pounds lighter than the favorites. Prince Is My Boy (#4) has been showing some signs of improvement while catching sloppy tracks in his last three starts. He lost a lot of ground in his last few races, so drawing closer to the inside should help his cause today. He has paired his last two Beyer Figures and could be due to improve today. I think both also-eligible runners have a shot if they are able to participate. I Got a Guy (#14) was racing in California and now is trained by Timothy Martin. He has three straight in the money finishes with $20K maiden claimers at Santa Anita and Los Alamitos. While the outside draw is not great, he is getting class relief. Outlaw Run (#13) is also dropping after showing signs of improvement with better fields. He looks like a better horse today than the horse that was struggling at this level in February. Rainbow Man (#12) would be an upgrade for me if the AE’s don’t make it in. I don’t like his draw for this race, but he is dropping in class and he ran better in his second start on the dirt. This is probably the right level, but David Cohen is going to have to try to get him interested sooner than later in this spot.
Meet Statistics:
Top Pick Winners: 111/496 (22.4%, $1,060.40, $2.14 ROI)
