Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 4/20/24 – By Eric Solomon

There’s another exciting Saturday card at Oaklawn, headed by a wide open edition of the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. In addition, there’s a pair of stakes races for three year olds and three year old fillies. Oaklawn has partnered with Pimlico to make both the Bath House Row Stakes and the Oaklawn Handicap, win and you’re in races” for the Preakness and the Pimlico Special, respectively. First post for the super-sized 12 race card is an earlier 12:10 (CT). On a personal note about this space; I didn’t have time to work on yesterday’s card and I’m not sure I’m going to be able to have analysis for tomorrow posted due to time constraints. However, I will definitely be back to finish out the last six cards of the meet in the next two weeks

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first of 12 races this afternoon is a $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. There is absolutely no early speed signed on for this race. If the morning line favorite, Doughty (#7) is right, she makes the most sense. I think if she’s able to break on top, I don’t think they’re going to be able to catch her. However, she was vanned off after her last race, which she didn’t finish, and coupled with the deep drop in class, I’m not getting the best vibes here. She makes too much sense from a pace standpoint to ignore, especially if she’s looking to part in the paddock and on track. She’s on the A line for me, but I’ll try Predicting (#9) on top to run it back after breaking her maiden at the beginning of the month with $20K maiden claimers. After a rough start to the meet, Timothy Martin’s horses have been running better over the last few weeks. This filly tried state bred maiden special weight company in her first two starts, and she was outclassed. She dropped into the $20,000-$12,500 maiden claiming ranks where she ran better in each of her last three starts. She paired her last Beyer Figures, so there’s reason to believe that she can move forward once again today while facing winners for the first time. Sassy Lass (#8) is the backup for me in this spot. She has some of the better speed figures in this race and she’s getting major class relief after laying an egg last weekend. There’s limited chances left to run in state bred company this year, so she wheels back quickly. She hasn’t improved enough to clear the state bred N1X allowance condition, so this spot feels right. I do wish she had more pace in front of her though, because on paper, I’m not really seeing that.

Race 2: 

A field of eight has been assembled for this $12,500 starter allowance race going one mile. The only stipulation for this race is that a horse must have started at least one time for a claiming price of $12,500 or less since the start of 2023. Several of these were entered in a $16K starter allowance race three weeks ago, contested at 1 3/16 miles. I think that distance was little bit out of the range of Polterer (#4) who was second as the 6-5 favorite that day. He’s had a very productive meet, winning twice and finishing second the other two times. He wants to be out front, and Fightertown (#2) is likely going to be the one to force the issue from his inside post. That one hasn’t shown a lot of fight lately when he’s been headed and I think Polterer is the better horse. He’s the short-priced pick in this spot. I do see a possible scenario where these two runners duel and effectively hurt each other’s chances of winning. If that plays out, I think W W Crazy (#7) is the most logical beneficiary. He was flat in the same $16K starter allowance race last time out, finishing 5th, about five lengths behind Polterer. I think the distance could allow him to make up some ground, especially if the favorite is softened up early. 

Race 3:

The $12,500-$10,000 N2L claiming race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going six furlongs from the first race overflowed the entry box, so the racing office split that race into two divisions, with this being the second. Randy Morse trained the class dropping favorite in the first heat and he has another one here, sending out One Way Or Another (#2). It’s been a long time since she broke her maiden, but she’s been consistently facing better horses. There’s a little more early pace for her to deal with than there is in the opener, but I don’t think it’s so much that I’d worry about this mare losing because of a speed duel. She has the best early speed and she’s rebounded from dismal efforts in the past. I just don’t see any more enticing options here. Courageous Cappen (#4) has been getting closer in her last three starts, but she’s failed to break through. I think she can hang around for a piece and if the top choice were to defect, she’d likely be where I’d land. 

Race 4: 

A field of 11 three year olds will sprint six furlongs in this $62,500 maiden claiming contest. This is a tough race with horses dropping and moving up in class. The Brad Cox runner, Max’s Map (#1) is the lukewarm morning favorite, but I don’t like the rail draw in this race and I think there are better alternatives. Sir Otto (#8) is the pick, making his first start of the Wade Rarick claim last month. He and Arrogate horse that clost $475K at auction, but was recently claimed for $30K in his second career start. This barn has done well with their claims in a small sample size. Outside of Sky Master (#7) in the stall next door, there’s not a ton of early speed to speak of in this race. He’s been gelded since his last start, which may help fix whatever was ailing him. He’s been hammered at the windows in his first two starts, so perhaps he’ll be flying under the radar for connections that aren’t as well-known. His former stablemate, Executive Power (#10) makes his second start, while dropping out of maiden special weight company. He wasn’t terrible on debut, finishing 5th, beaten only 3 ½ lengths. The winner of that race was a hard knocking, professional maiden who finally broke through in his 13th career start. There’s reason to believe that he can improve in this race and Asmussen does well with horses dropping in for the tag. He was purchased originally for $70K, so running with the $62,500 tag isn’t a big concern for me. Sky Master could be the speed of the speed if he’s sent for the front once again. Ricardo Santana will pick up the mount as he makes the first start off the Ingrid Mason claim. He battled hard on the front end and faded to be 4th, beaten only 1 ¼ lengths. Like some others here, he’s moving up in class after the claim. Rocketeightyeight (#2) makes his first start off the Chris Hartman claim. This barn has clicked with 30% winners right off the claim since the start of 2023. This one has been up and down, but he might be worth considering for his new connections. Jose Ortiz is scheduled to ride at Oaklawn for the first time during the 23-24 meet today. He’s here to ride Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap, but he’ll pick up this mount as well. 

Race 5: 

$25K maiden claimers will go in the race that ends the Early Pick-5 and starts the Mid-Card Pick-5. An overflow field of 13 has been assembled for this one mile contest. I’m not liking the claim and drop for Empire’s Best (#3), who is the morning line favorite. However, there are a lot of warts that we’ll have to look past in many runners in this race. I don’t like the outside draw for Saturday Starter (#11), but I see some upside here. He’s moving up in class after running with $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimers. While those races have been somewhat of a mixed bag in terms of quality, this is definitely a tougher field. Dan Ward has good numbers first off the claim and this Flameaway ridgling has been improving. He was not good two starts back when he broke from post 12 and was very wide early on. We run that risk once again today, but I trusted Ricardo Santana much more than some of his recent riders. Vigano (#4) has started 12 times and he crossed the finish line first two starts back when facing $30K maiden claimers. His number was taken though due to some interference in the stretch in what was a wild finish. He came back against a very tough field for the $55K-$45K maiden claiming condition, and he finished 5th, despite posting a career high Beyer Speed Figure. He’s run well when going two turns on this oval and I think he offers some value here. Rebelious (#2) is a first time starter for Brad Cox. His dam has produced some competitive racehorses, one of which won on debut and another that won in their second start when routing for the first time. Cox has great numbers in these kinds of races and Florent Geroux has ridden well in limited starts at this meet. My concern is that horses sired by The Factor are only 2-33 when debuting in route races over the last five years and both of those wins came on the turf. While I’d want to get better value than 3-1, I suspect this one could be favored when they load into the gate. Famous Final Scene (#1) is a backup play for me in this spot. He ran well with $30K maiden claimers last out, leading most of the way. Deluca, who was the race winner, is a good horse. He makes his second start off that layoff and draws the rail, which is helpful for the race he wants to run. He’s another one that is live in a wide open race. 

Race 6: 

$62,500 N3L claimers are sprinting six furlongs here. There’s a lot of horses that put up strong speed figures, but have struggled to win in this race. However, that’s the nature of a condition such as this one. Life Is Hard (#3) is going to be tough to beat. It’s been over two years since he cleared the N1X allowance condition on this course. He’s run several strong efforts since then, but hasn’t found the Winner’s Circle. I think he can stalk the early speed of Improbable Journey (#6), and unless front end speed looks unstoppable after the first few races, I think he’s going to be finishing better than his rival, who is a similar price on the morning line. If the odds gap stays in the same range, I much prefer Life Is Hard. The backup for me here is a horse taking a big step up in class. Shuffle Dance (#7) has run well in his last two starts, winning with $16K N2L claimers and finishing third with $20K N3L claimers. While this is a big step up in class on paper, both of those last two races were above average for those conditions. Moquett is capable first off the claim and Jose Ortiz taking the mount is a plus. He’ll need to improve, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that’s a possibility. I think the 12-1 morning line number is fair, but with Ortiz riding, I’m not sure that number stays that high. 

Race 7:

A field of 10 three old fillies are going 1 1/16 miles in this maiden special weight race. Bob Baffert shipped here to take down both the Arkansas Derby and the Apple Blossom in the last few weeks. He brought Reincarnate to town to try to win the Oaklawn Handicap this afternoon. He also brought the first time starter, Miss Rockette (#5) along for the ride. She’s the morning line favorite in this race and she could easily beat this group. However, last week I talked about the success Baffert has had in the big races at Oaklawn, but the horses that he’s brought along for the trip have not fared as well. That’s been the case on both big days as his non-stakes horses have not run well. In addition, Baffert has a limited number of horses over the last five years that he’s debuted in races at a mile or more. His recent numbers with those runners aren’t up to his standard, winning only once in the last 11 races. For as good as Into Mischief is as a sire, his runners that are debuting at longer races have also struggled, going 3-34 in the last five years. Of the three winners, two of them came at Delaware, one of which was in a very slow race. The other came in a one turn mile race at Aqueduct that was taken off the turf. There are plenty of question marks with this filly and despite her high price tag ($1,250,000), I’m going to try to beat her outright. I think Gourmet (#1) is live for Asmussen, coming in from the Fair Grounds. When Joel Rosario rides here, this is the kind of horse he wins on. There’s not a ton of early speed signed on, so he’ll use his inside draw to his advantage. He has a great feel for pace, and unless the Baffert horse comes out of the gate gunning for the front, I think she sets a comfortable lead, and should be tough to catch in the stretch. The main threat is the Brad Cox runner, Flashy Dancer (#6), who had some trouble at the start when debuting as the 9-5 favorite in the mud here last month. There is some rain in the forecast, so she might have to deal with an off-track once again. Cox has great numbers with second time starters, and she’s bred to be a good one. I think she’s better than her debut and should be tough to deal with. If the morning line odds hold true, I think the value is better on Gourmet, However, if the odds gap between those fillies shrinks, especially if the Baffert horse gets hammered at the windows, she becomes more enticing. 

Race 8:

The Late Pick-5 begins with an optional $100K claiming/N2L allowance race for three year olds going 1 1/16 miles. With rain in the forecast, I see this as a great spot for Dimatic (#6), who is my best bet of the afternoon. He broke his maiden convincingly in the slop on Southwest Day here in February. He ran okay in the Rebel when the horses that beat him were simply better. He had no punch in the Arkansas Derby though, finishing last of 10 that day. Asmussen decided to drop him into allowance company, instead of rushing back in stakes company in the next race. Blinkers come off and Joel Rosario, who rode him to victory in February, reunites with him today. I think he’s better than the morning line favorite, Ethan Energy (#8), and I trust him much more than the second choice, Awesome Ruta (#5), who has decent speed figures despite finishing well behind some of the top three year olds in stakes races. The backup for me is Pappy’s Revenge (#1), who has paired his last two Beyer Figures at this level. His inside post should be an asset for his running style. He was a close third last out and should be right in the mix once again. 

Race 9, The $200K Bath House Row Stakes:

Steve Asmussen has had several big days on these stakes laden cards at Oaklawn over the last two years, and I think he’s absolutely loaded on the back end of this card. I like both of his runners in this race, giving the slight edge to Imperial Gun (#3). While I didn’t see him as any kind of a threat in the Arkansas Derby, there were a lot of things that didn’t go his way that day. He had a tough post and I didn’t love the ride out of the gate. I think there was an opportunity to get over and secure a decent early spot, but it wasn’t taken and he was wide, while fighting Esquivel around the first turn. He was then bothered when Liberal Arts was forced to steady off heels, and then drift out, forcing him to lose more ground. He passed a few tired runners to finish 8th that day. I think getting Rosario back in the irons will be a plus, because he had this one close to the lead when breaking his maiden three back. His Tomlinson numbers are significantly better than anyone else’s here, so a wet track could very well be advantageous. I think he stalk Maximus Mischief (#2) early and make a move on the turn. Informed Patriot (#4) was also a big longshot in the Arkansas Derby. He ran a better race than expected, finishing 5th that afternoon, about three lengths better than his stablemate. He ran well in his lone start in the slop and nine furlong distance may be what he’s looking for. On deeper tickets, I’ll look for Count Dracula (#8) to add a little value. At one mile, he was a neck behind Maximus Mischief when they crossed the line. While Maximus Magic stayed in front on the gallop out, I’m not sure Count Dracula loved being in tight after being given the patented Brian Hernandez, rail-skimming ride. Manny Esquivel takes the mount today with Hernandez staying at Keeneland. While he might have to concede a little ground, I think he’ll prefer the outside post. 

Race 10, The $200K Valley of the Vapors Stakes:

11 three year old fillies are entered in this one mile stakes event. I really liked Midshipman’s Dance (#2) in the Fantasy Stakes last month, however, that race was on the heels of the controversy with Robertino Diodoro, and she was a stewards scratch that afternoon. She moves to Wade Rarick’s barn, which seems like a big acquisition for a trainer that hasn’t had a ton of stakes experience. Regardless, I think she ran well despite a wide trip in her first route back in February when she finished 5th in the Grade 3 Honeybee. She gets a better draw in this race than where she was going to break from in the Fantasy, and while there are some promising fillies in this race, she’s facing a softer field than she would have seen last month. Her works are a little slower than they were for Diodoro, but that could be just different styles. I’m using her on the A line as my top pick in this race. Three of the top four finishers in a N1X allowance race on the Arkansas Derby undercard are back in this race. Neom Beach (#1) won that race and is drawn better than her rivals for this contest today. She is another live mount for Joel Rosario, who could be in line for another big day here. She should be close to the front end  and is continuing to get better. I think she ran better than both Merasol Sugar (#5) and I’m a Mess (#7) in that race, and I think she has the edge on both of them again today. Ken McPeek is scheduled to send out three runners, and the most interesting runner of his trio is Winnable (#11) on the outside. She’s going to need a trip, but she’s coming off a big effort as a runner up in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway. She’s run well in two starts on synthetic, and the way that Turfway horses are lighting it up on the dirt at this Keeneland meeting, I think she’s worth a look in this race, especially if she’s overlooked in the wagering. 

Race 11: The $1.250,000 Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap

The signature race for older horses at this meet drew a competitive 11 horse field. Despite the fact that Baffert has won over 50% of his races here in the last five years, I’m out on Reincarnate (#6). I get why he’s here, and his Santa Anita Handicap effort was decent, but I don’t see him as a top horse in this division, and after seeing Baffert’s success at this meet so far, I think he’s going to be too short of a number for me. Octane (#4) is likely going to be setting the terms here and I think he’s going to be tough to run down. Especially if the track is wet. He won the Razorback here last month, which was a wide open race. He stalked the leaders that day and held them all at bay through the length of the stretch. I don’t see a ton of speed in this race, so he might be able to run a similar race. He’s proven on an off-track if that’s what they;re working with. As a son of Exaggerator, it’s no surprise that Skippylongstocking (#10) is 2-2 on off-tracks. He didn’t finish when breaking from Post 12 in the Pegasus World Cup. He was no worse for wear, despite being vanned off. He came back to win the Challenger Stakes at Tampa last out, without ever being threatened. He’s drawn wide again, but I don’t see a mad scramble for the lead here. Highland Falls (#1) was 4th in the Big Cap when shipping out to Santa Anita last month. He’s done everything well for Brad Cox and he’s lightly raced enough to have a forward move still to come. He’s never run a bad race and the nine furlong trip in this one should be right up his alley. 

Race 12:

We end the afternoon with a state bred maiden special weight for state bred fillies and mares that will travel six furlongs. I like Q’s Your Mama (#7) in the nightcap here. She ran well to be third on a sloppy course in her debut. She was well-backed as the second choice at this level last out, but she was shuffled around early and never really came with a bid. She adds blinkers, which should help her cause, and if the track comes up wet, she’s already finished in front of the favorite on that kind of surface. At 10-1 on the morning line compared to the 8-5 number of the horse that beat her, I think there’s much better value with her. Wildwood Queen (#5) is the horse, and she was very good when narrowly missing in her second career start at that level last month. Scott Becker’s horses have struggled at this meet, so it’s hard to take her as the favorite. However, if she runs the same race she did last time, she’s going to be tough. Queen Wilhelmina (#10) makes her debut off a lengthy series of AM drills for Lindsay Schultz. While The Factor isn’t a great sire for first time starters in dirt sprints (7% winners), one of the dam’s foals lost on debut in a photo. I think she’s live in this race. Aloha Baby (#8) had some trouble last out, but was moving well late. That was a career top effort, so she’s going to have to prove that she can back that figure up. For a horse that is 2-1 on the morning line with four races on her resume, I’d like to see her get a little closer than 4 ½ lengths away from a winner. I’d like her more at longer odds. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 111/505 (22.0%, $1,060.40, $2.10 ROI)