Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 4/4/24 – By Eric Solomon

The Arkansas Derby Card used to be the closing day of the Oaklawn, however, there are still five more weeks of racing left in Hot Springs, Arkansas for the 2023-24 meet. Today’s nine race card kicks off the last four day racing week of the meet. First post today is 12:30 (CT). Just a personal note that I’ve got a heavy workload this week with Keeneland starting up. This may be the only Oaklawn post for the week. With some big races still to come, I’ll try to post as much as I can before the meet concludes in May. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

$30K maiden claimers start the afternoon in a six furlong sprint. This race should set up nicely for Safe Bet (#3). He’s tried going one mile at this level and he faltered in this last start, where he was a voided claim. His sprint efforts prior to that start were significantly better. Assuming both Trabr’s Creed (#5) and Cloud Without Rein (#6) are participating in this race, the pace should be strong enough to set up his late closing kick. I think he’s faced better horses than most of these runners and he’s been competitive in those spots. Assuming he’s looking good on the track, I see him as the one to beat in this race. Trabr’s Creed is coming out of a race with better competition where he likely went too fast in the early stages. He faded to be 4th, beaten 3 ½ lengths that afternoon. He drops in class and would likely be my top pick if Cloud Without Rein was involved in this race. I think he can outlast that one, but I’m not convinced he can hold off Safe Bet. 

Race 2:

An overflow field of 14 has been assembled for this $12,500 maiden claiming dash at 5 ½ furlongs. As per usual, you’ll notice that horses bred in Arkansas at this level are eligible to run with a $20K claiming tag. I’ll try one of the first time starters on top in this race, giving the nod to Coal Stone (#5). First time starters from Coal Front have won five of 30 debut races in dirt sprints so far in his young stud career. The dam was a debut winner and two of her five foals to race won at first asking. His works are average, but he’s not facing a group of world beatings by any stretch of the imagination in this race. Honest Opinion (#1) ran a gutsy race at this level when making his first start in a sprint race and her first start since being privately purchased. His four starts prior to that effort were nothing to write home about, hence his 18-1 odds last time out. He reunites with Cristian Torres in a race where he will likely go into the starting gate as the favorite. If he duplicates his last effort, he’ll be tough. Express Cruiser (#6) drops in class to a level below his $20K claiming price at Churchill back in November. He ran well in the mud three back, but his last two starts against better fields were lackluster. The class relief should be beneficial, but it is concerning that he really hasn’t passed a horse when the real racing begins. Mr. Butch (#12) should be a longer priced first time starter in this race. His full sibling was abysmal in his two career starts. His works at Louisiana Downs are solid enough to earn at least one start here. He’s an Arkansas bred, so he’s entered with the $20K tag, without having to face a $20K maiden claiming group (which are typically a little stronger than these races). I like his outside draw and would consider including him on some tickets. 

Race 3:

A field of seven will line up in this $62,500 starter allowance race. The conditions for this race are for fillies and mares that have started at least one time for a claiming price of $62,500 or less or for horses that have never won $25K in a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or state bred company. That last provision is what keeps Bennykayandsuzytoo (#3) and Lover Girl (#5) eligible for this race, despite having never started with a claiming tag. I like Chandana (#7) a lot in this race. The forecast looks like it’s going to be sunny and dry over a long stretch this week, which should mean that this six year old mare should be competing on a fast track. In her last five starts on a fast track, she has three wins and two second place finishes, losing both of those races in photos. Her two off the board finishes in that span both came on off-tracks. She figures to get the perfect setup in this race. Bennykayandsuzytoo, I’m the Boss of Me (#4), and Backyard Money (#6) all want to be on the front end. Off Ramp (#1) and Let’s Be Clear (#2) want to be near the back of the pack before making their one big closing kick. She should be sitting in a good striking spot, just off the front-runners. I think she’ll get the jump on the closers and be finishing better than the pacesetters. She’s the best bet of the afternoon for me. Backyard Money scratched out of the Matron Stakes on Saturday in favor of this spot, which was probably a wise move. She’ll likely be three deep if the other two speedsters break well and go for the front. Nik Juarez will likely try to push the button a little earlier with her to try to avoid being wide all the way around the turn. Her lone win on this course came when she had an uncontested lead from an outside draw. While I think that is an unlikely scenario here, she is getting class relief and she does battle until the end. She’d be my backup here. 

Race 4:

Eleven are entered in this open $16K claiming sprint race at six furlongs. Happymac (#7) is very logical in this race, looking for his third straight win for his third different trainer at this meet. He continues to climb up the class ladder after spending two years in Canada where he was nowhere near as effective as he was on traditional dirt. He’s in top form, but he’s already cleared the N1X allowance level. He’s not likely going to be as competitive with the N2X level here, so I get why he’s entered for the $16K tag. However, if his connections thought he was going to continue to run these big races, why not try to move him to a protected spot, like a starter allowance race here? He’s a B line play for me because he’s been in such good form, but, I think there are others that make more sense. There should be a decent amount of speed in this race which should set the table for a horse like Drifter (#2) to come rolling down the crown of the track. He’s another runner that has been popular at the claim box. He’s a few races removed from a career top effort on this course when closing into a strong pace. He was claimed by Dan Ward who has decent numbers forest off the claim. He opts to have Harry Hernandez ride today, which I view as an upgrade. Air Combat (#11) should sit a cozy stalking trip from his outside draw, which definitely fits the profile of the kinds of horses that are regularly winning in sprint races at this meet. He was a game second behind Jackman in his last start and now he drops in class to face many contenders that are moving up the ladder. Santa Cruiser (#10) has been sidelined since winning at this level at Churchill back in September. He was claimed that day, so gets to run with the waiver in this race. The distance may be a tad short for him, although he did run his best career Beyer Figure at this six furlong trip. Thomas Van Berg has good numbers with horses that are coming off longer layoffs, so I see him as playable in this spot. 

Race 5:

Fillies and mares get their turn at the $12,500 maiden claiming level with similar conditions to  its male counterpart in the second race of the day. However, they’ll go six furlongs instead of 5 ½ here. Just like with the other race, this race drew an overflow field of 14. I didn’t really get the ride on Sheza Shenanigan (#7) in a two turn $20K maiden claiming race last time out. She didn’t have a great beginning, but instead of tucking in at the back of the pack where she could at least save ground, she was kept in the four path for pretty much the length of the first turn. She ran on well enough to get into 5th, but there was a large chasm between her and the 4th place finisher. While I understand why Carlos Barbosa is opting to ride Predicting (#2), getting Ramon Vazquez as a replacement feels like an upgrade. Her effort on debut in a six furlong sprint with better competition wasn’t bad. She feels like a horse that could move forward off her last effort  while getting a bit of class relief. Amoureux (#9) has every right to do a little better while cutting back to a sprint. She was claimed for this tag while routing in her most recent start. Her last two works at Louisiana Downs have been on the slow side, but I think she still fits in this spot. Predicting is worth using as a backup in this spot. She had a pretty sweet trip at this level last out, but she could do no better than second best, as she was repelled by Classy Edge. She is likely to get a decent pace in front of her again, assuming that Kokomo Starlet (#1) has to send from her rail draw. She encountered a bit of trouble in her two prior starts to her last race and that could be a function of her grinding closing style in large fields. She’ll need a trip and her price will likely be too low for me, but I do think if you want your bases covered in the multi-race sequences, you probably want her on some of your tickets. 

Race 6:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an optional $125K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year fillies sprinting six furlongs. While the written conditions offer a slight variation from the usual N1X allowance conditions, everyone in this field qualifies under the N1X allowance condition, including the one runner, Best Cupcake (#4) who is entered with the $125K claiming tag. This race feels like an interesting battle between Tanya Showers (#3) and Motown Dynamic (#5). Tanya Showers is the more accomplished runner of the duo, finishing in the money in both the Mockingbird and Dixie Belle Stakes. She ran into a buzzsaw when she faced Impel when going two turns for the first time. While I thought she was interesting in that race, she couldn’t go with the top horses. The runner up in that race, Merasol Sugar, came back to finish a close up third place in a similar conditioned race at two turns last Friday. The cutback to a sprint makes a ton of sense, but I think this six furlong distance is a little short for her and I’m not sure she’s going to get enough pace to close in to be at her very best. I’ll give a narrow advantage to the recent maiden winner, Motown Dynamic for Steve and Keith Asmussen. She was nailed late on the wire in her debut, but she came back to run a strong race to easily graduate from the maiden ranks in her last start. She appears to be the speed of the speed once in this spot, and I’m not sure any of these fillies will be able to keep her honest on the front. She makes her third career start after pairing her first two Beyer Speed Figures. I think she’s sitting on a bigger effort and will be able to hold on despite facing winners for the first time. A deeper saver for me would be Our Keepsake (#2). There’s an interesting anomaly with this filly, as her half-sister, Backyard Money, runs in the 3rd race today. This filly continues to steadily improve. She posted a career to Beyer Speed Figure in the mud last out when facing optional claiming/starter allowance foes. She faces a tougher group in general today, but if, (and it’s a big if), she can run the same figure on a fast track, she’ll be dangerous. 

Race 7:

The last Pick-3 opportunity of the day starts with an $8K beaten claiming race going 1 1/16 miles. To be eligible for this race, a horse must have either never won three times or has failed to win a race since September 4th, 2023. I think the ten year old, California Swing (#5) holds the keys to this race. At this age, he’s not going to be taking massive steps forward, but I do think he’s capable of moving forward enough to have an impact with this field. He was last seen finishing 4th with a similar kind of field here. He was bounced around a good bit at the break and was relegated to the back of the pack. He isn’t the fastest horse in the early stages of a race, but he has more tactical speed than he was able to show last time. He was making his first start in three months that day, so he should be a little more fit for this race. Some of the more serious contenders are going to have to overcome some tricky posts, so I do think he has a built in advantage here. Chisholm Trail (#2) draws the rail, which should give him a solid position for the race he wants to run. He caught a sloppy track last time out when making his first start in two months. While his recent form hasn’t been the best, there’s very little early speed in this race. He should be forwardly placed, which could help him run one of his better races. Absolute Courage (#7)is another horse that should have a bit of a tactical advantage in this race. He doesn’t want to be on the lead, but he wants to be close. He’s coming off a big effort, so whether or not he can duplicate that try remains to be seen. I don’t think this is a very strong field, so I’d wager that he can still be close. Chelsea Dagger (#12) fits on figures, but I don’t know how much I trust the apprentice, Carlos Barbosa, to try to overcome the 12 hole in a race like this. His last three starts were his only races on a regular dirt course and he handled it well. He’s a deeper saver for me in this spot. 

Race 8:

A field of seven fillies and mares will go 1 1/16 miles in the featured, optional $62,500 claiming/N2X allowance race. All seven runners are entered under the allowance condition. There’s an interesting shipper in this race that has caught my eye. Frosty O Toole (#7) comes to town for Mike Dini, bringing Antonio Gallardo with him to ride. Gallardo is a talented rider that has won 21% of his races so far in 2024. He typically winters at Tampa and then rides at Presque Isle over the summer months. He hasn’t ridden a ton of races for Dini, but he’s won 33% of the horses they’ve teamed up with since the start of 2023. This Frosted filly technically cleared the N2X condition at Tampa two starts back. However, because of the purse structure there, she can participate in this race under the allowance condition. She was recently 2nd in the Nellie Morse Stakes at Laurel. The purse for this N2X allowance race is $40K more than the stakes race she was in, so Dini, who has not started a horse here in the last five years, bringing her to town is very logical. From a pace standpoint, I think there could be a solid pace with four of the seven runners doing their best work when they’re on or near the lead. I’ll look for her late, while hoping Gallardo can get his timing right on this course. Both Bluelughtspecial (#1) and Corningstone (#5) are stakes winning Indiana bred fillies that have traded blows in the past. Bluelightspecial makes her first start since October. Cipriano Contreras has good numbers with horses off the bench and her recent works are solid. Corningstone last ran at the end of January in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic where she finished 3rd, beaten five lengths. Bluelightspecial is a little more dependent on making the lead, whereas Corningstone can rate kindly behind the speed when she needs to. The rail draw suggests to me that Bluelightspecial can make the lead with a clean break and a hustling ride. If Corningstone doesn’t win the break, I’d like to see her save a little ground and tuck in behind the speed early on. She could get first run on the closers. David Cohen is named to ride for McPeek. Cohen was named to ride some horses on Saturday, but he didn’t, which could have been by design. Both of these fillies are logical alternatives to the top pick. 

Race 9:

The Thursday nightcap is for Arkansas bred fillies and mares, running with a $20K maiden claiming tag. Blue Ember (#7) fits the profile of a favorite that is going to be  very tough to deal with at this level. She paired her first two Beyers sprint races, then she moved forward to two turn tries and paired a higher Beyer Figure in those spots. She’s been consistent in all four starts and she looks better than most of her counterparts in this one. Pneuma (#10) might be closer to the A line if she had not drawn an outside post. While I see her as a horse that can improve when going two turns, she’s going to have to overcome an outside draw. She’s been in the ballpark in her first two tries so the drop back to this level seems to make sense. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 104/465 (22.4%, $1,010.00, $2.17 ROI)