Oaklawn Park Racing Preview – 5/3/24 – By Eric Solomon

While most of the national attention is focused on the Oaks and Derby, closing week at Oaklawn starts off with a competitive 11 race card. I see many opportunities to build a bankroll for the big day tomorrow. Today’s program is highlighted by the Natural State Breeders’ Stakes for Arkansas bred fillies and mares. First post today is 12:15 (CT), which is a little earlier than the usual time. 

I’ll be covering this exciting meet on the ITM Blog, along with posting some updates and thoughts from time to time on Twitter @EricSolomon718. Feel free to reach out!

Race 1:

The first race of the day is a $12,500 starter allowance contest for fillies and mares going six furlongs. To be eligible for this race a horse must have started in at least one claiming race with a tag $12,500 or less in their last two starts. This is a tough way to start the afternoon. Both Diva Treva (#6) and Summer of Mischief (#7) in the outside stalls want to go to the lead. Both horses are coming off races where they were dominant winners  while being allowed to set an uncontested lead. Unless there’s a bad break, I don’t think the lead will be uncontested for either mare. Abby the Bull Dawg (#3) was bothered at the break last out, but she was able to make a bold last to first run while closing into a fast pace. She was claimed by Dan Ward last time out, and he opts to protect her in this spot, likely with the idea of shipping her to Monmouth for the summer. She’s a contender, but I do worry about a deep closer in a spot like this. I’ll make Docs Seven (#4) the top pick. She was re-claimed by Steve Manley, who had lost her via claim three starts ago. She came up short when making a four wide bid last out with open $8K claimers. While she doesn’t have a local win, two of her three starts here have been in the money finishes. 

Race 2:

Beaten $12,500 claimers will sprint six furlongs here. To be eligible for this race a horse must have either never won three times or they have not won a race since December 3rd. Last week, I did a deeper dive into the 11 (now 12) horses that Jonas Gibson claimed and ran back for the first time on this oval. Part of the reason for that deeper dive was several of his runners first off the claim were taking significant drops in class from their claiming price. Nine of those 12 runners fell into that category. Two of those runners were winners and another finished second in a photo. Only three runners were either making lateral for forward moves off the claim. One of those three runners was a winner and another was second while losing in a photo. Part of the reason for that deeper dive was to determine whether or not it made sense to try to take a short price on his class dropping favorite, but the other reason was to determine whether or not it made sense to play his claimers that weren’t nose diving in class. I referred back to that table when assessing the feasibility of a horse like Rifey (#2) winning this race. He is moving from open claiming to restricted claiming company so despite running for a higher tag, there is some class relief here. There are some gaps in his running lines, but his overall dirt form has been pretty consistent. His main flaw is that as a horse that likes to come from off the pace, he often becomes pace and trip dependent. He’s going to be on my tickets, but seeing Francisco Arrieta, who has ride most of Gibson’s winners at this meet, opt to ride Lamutanatty (#6) was enough to look the other way for a top pick. Despite the larger field, I don’t see a ton of early speed. That should set the table nicely for Tee Burns (#11) who checks a lot of boxes in this race while dropping in class. His form has been up and down at this meet, but in a lot of those races where he;s struggled, the pace battle has been strong. I think the outside post suits his running style and the class relief should be enough to get him in the Winner’s Circle. Lamutanatty is worth considering in this race. He was third against a similar group in his first start off the Wade Rarick claim. He ran well, but leveled off in the late stages of that one. Arrieta has two winners with three starters from the Rarick barn and seeing as how Rarick only has three winners at this meet, that feels meaningful. Arrieta rode him last time out, so he must have liked the effort enough to retain the mount. 

Race 3:

How you approach this maiden special weight contest depends on how you feel about the first time starters, because the runners with experience haven’t really done enough to inspire a lot of confidence. I see Royal Arts (#3) as the one to beat in this race. He’s one of two runners slated to make their first career starts for Steve Asmussen. This one is a full sister to Landeskog, who was an easy winner on this oval in his debut a few years back. That one went on to be graded stakes placed, finishing second in the Gallant Bob at Parx later that season. The dam has foaled five horses in total that have made it to the track and two were winners on debut. The works are good and Munnings gets 14% winners with his debut runners in dirt sprints. Note that most of the regular riders at this meet for the Asmussen barn are riding at Churchill today and tomorrow, so Luis Fuentes gets the assignment today. On deeper tickets, I’ll try Wowsers (#7), in hopes that Thomas Van Berg can get her to harness some of her ability. She’s been slow to get started in both of two career starts. She was flying late to get second in both of them. Van Berg has good numbers off the claim and the two shorter priced runners with experience, Barstool Babe (#1) and Hurricane Fire (#8) tend to be going in the wrong direction on the final furlong. This is a step up in class, but I don’t see this as the deepest field for the condition. She’s a value play underneath in the vertical exotics and she could pull off the upset with the right set up. 

Race 4:

There’s an overflow field of 14 entered in this beaten $16K claiming race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares going six furlongs. This race is open for horses that have either never won twice or have not won a race in the last 10 months. I don’t see a huge talent gap between The Girl in Red (#6) and Timbavati (#8) in this race, however, their morning line odds suggest otherwise. The Girl in Red starts off at 10-1 whereas Timbavati is the 9-5 morning line favorite. While I like Timbavati, I do think her two big races in her running lines are going to cause her to be a shorter price than I’d be comfortable taking on her. She should be able to set the early pace and she’s proven that she’s best when she’s setting the tempo. I see her as a major player, but I’m going to take the value with The Girl in Red. Her last race wasn’t good, so if you believe that she’ll rebound, this is the time to buy. She is dropping in class after faltering with better runners two weeks ago. Bret Calhoun has struggled at the meet, but he still has won 22% of his races in 2024. She did finish eight lengths behind Timbavati two starts back, but I’m not convinced we’re going to see the best of that one. As long as the gap between these two stays this wide, I’ll take the longer priced option. Heated Argument (#13) is going to need a defection to participate in this race, however she’s a contender if she’s in. She has a running style that should keep the top two picks honest. She almost pulled off the upset at 16-1 two starts ago, but she was caught late to be third. She might have bounced off that last effort in her most recent try, but I think she’ll be better at this level. 

Race 5: 

Tisi $12,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares will end the Early Pick-5, but it will also start the Mid-Card Pick-5, which is being offered on this 11 race program. As per usual, Arkansas breds will get to run with the $20K claiming tag. I’ll try the second time starter, Air Castle (#7) in this spot. Her two full siblings to race both ran about as well as she did in her first career start. While there’s not a lot to be encouraged by from a familial standpoint, none of those horses ever went two turns. The dam did all of her best work at two turns on the turf and Double Irish begets 13% winners with runners on dirt routing for the first time. Blinkers go one after a debut against an above average field on a sloppy course that produced many dull efforts. I’d be willing to give her another chance with this drop in class. Perceptive (#2) struggled last out, but was wide for the better part of her journey. Most horses at this level can’t overcome that trip, and that was the case for her last time. She’s drawn much better for the race she wants to run, and she’s drawn a significantly better post than the second and third choices on the morning line. Miss Terre (#1) has three starts and no in the money finishes. However, she is drawn well for her first route and she’s definitely bred to go longer distances. I suspect she’s going to be better if she’s ever able to get on the grass, but I do think she could contend at this level. Adamantly (#3) was a distant 4th at this level when routing for the first time. She was away slow,. Which certainly didn’t help her cause in that full field. She made up ground late to get into 4th. I do think there’s a reasonable chance that she could improve in this spot today.

Race 6:

This race, which will start the Mid-Card Pick-4, is also a $12,500 maiden claiming race for fillies and mares, but this race goes at six furlongs. Just like the previous race, Arkansas breds get to run with a $20K claiming tag. It’s hard to make a case against someone beating Gogo Bobbyjo (#3) in this spot. She paired her first two Beyers of 2024 after showing nothing in her first two tries last year in Indiana. She tried two turns last out and ran very well, finishing a decent third. I thought that effort would have been good enough to try her with two turn runners in the previous race, but I think Hartman feels she’s going to be more effective in sprints. This barn has good numbers with horses going from routes to sprints and I think she’s going to be very tough to deal with in this spot. Linnie Mae (#4) is the backup for me here. Draw a line through her dull effort two back and she ran credible races against state bred maiden special weight types. She gets class relief, which certainly could serve her well. She has more upside than a lot of the other longer priced horses.

Race 7:

I think the question that handicappers will need to answer in this race is; what do you make of the relatively steep drop in class for Excess Magic (#11)? Chris Hartman claimed him for $80K when he won an optional $80K/N2X allowance race that was taken off the turf back in November at Churchill. Since then, he’s made three starts for this barn at this meet, and he’s finished in the money in all three. He’s run very good races, finishing third, only 4 ¼ lengths behind the best six furlong horse on the grounds, Skelly. He was second two starts back when Ryvit, another stakes winner, sat the perfect trip in allowance company. He was also second last out, but that effort was a down effort from a speed figure standpoint, dipping in both Beyer and Equibase numbers. Prior to that last race, he had three straight starts on dirt where he was running races earning Beyer figures in the mid-90’s. That kind of number will win this race 99 times out of 100. Only two other horses have sniffed that kind of number, and for both, it wasn’t recent. However, whether or not he is going to get back to running that figure remains up for debate. The drop in class to a $32K-$28K N2Y claiming level, three races removed from an $80K claim isn’t ideal. However, he has earned $71K on the racetrack in his three in the money finishes at this meet. A win and claim at this level would amount to a $70K windfall for his connections, which makes the drop in class seem less curious. If Excess Magic runs back to his last race, I don’t think he’ll lose this race. If he drops another five points on the Beyer scale, I see three horses that I could make a case for beating him. I feel the most logical contender is Speight and Malice (#4). I see a horse that has four solid races at this meet. His form has improved, pairing his first two Beyers, then pairing his last two, showing improvement from his first two races. He was claimed by Karl Broberg from his last race and he ran a credible 4th against a tough starter allowance field in his last start. There’s a larger field in this race and there’s several that want to be forwardly placed. He think he’ll be flying late down the crown of the track in this one. He’s my pick in this spot, while hoping to try to manufacture a little value. Money Run (#10) is going to have to rebound in a big way after finishing last with $20K starter allowance foes in his last start. He has shown the ability to jump up and run big races in the past and he was two lengths better than Speight and Malice two starts back. When he’s at his best, he’s traveling with a loose rein on an easy lead. I’m not sure it’s going to shake out that for him. A crazy longshot to think about in this spot is Circle Back Jack (#12). He has races in his 2023 running lines that would be competitive with these runners. I like that Genaro Garcia, who was the trainer of record for some of his bigger efforts, did re-claim him after losing him one start ago. He’ll need his best, but at 30-1, I’m intrigued, because his best would likely put him in front of several runners. 

Race 8:

The Late Pick-4 begins with an optional $100K claiming/N1X allowance race for three year old fillies sprinting six furlongs. Four of the twelve runners are entered with the $100K tag, but none of them have cleared the N1X condition. There is a lot of speed signed on for this race, as assuming the track is playing fairly, I think Hush It Honey (#7) is absolutely the one to beat. Along with Haulin Ice (#8), these are two talented Arkansas breds in this open field. Hush It Honey, looked very comfortable rating off the speed in the Rainbow Stakes last out. She engaged with Haulin Ice and prevailed with a gutsy stretch drive. I see a lot more early speed signed on, which is likely going to make things tough for Haulin Ice. Between Brooklyn Dew (#4) and Here U Come Again (#12), I think there’s going to be some serious early speed happening here, especially since they’re not the only ones. Hush It Honey has three wins in four starts at this meet, with her only loss coming at two turns in the slop in the Martha Washington Stakes. She appears to be maturing and should be very tough to deal with in this race. I’m going to backup with Spin the Breeze (#11) in the event of a total pace meltdown. She was last early at this level and got into 4th last month. It was not easy to make up that kind of ground on that course that day. I think the pace will be quicker here and I think there will be several going in the wrong direction. This one hanging on for a piece of the money isn’t a crazy thought at long odds. 

Race 9, The $150K Natural State Breeders’ Stakes:

The Friday feature is the lone stakes race for Arkansas bred fillies and mares at two turns. A field of 10 have signed on for the mile journey in this race. As is often the case, there are some sprinters looking to have success at two turns in this spot. Let’s get a little wild and make Rivercrest Girl (#3) the top pick in this spot. She was 7th beaten, 9 ¼ lengths in the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes here in her last start two months ago. She’s not really a one turn horse though, so I can forgive that effort. She’s well-drawn to get a ground saving trip while moving back to a dirt route. She ran a monster race on this oval at this distance 364 days ago when facing state bred claimers. This is a step up, but she runs well fresh and she’s facing some horses that don’t want to go this far. Bennykayandsuzytoo (#10) has to deal with the outside draw in this spot, but this filly has definitely shown improvement this season. Her N3L allowance win two back was sharp. Most of her work has been at six furlongs, but she tried this distance in this race last year and she ran a race that was right in the same speed figure range as her sprints. She was beaten nine lengths by Kaboom Baby (#9), whose current form appears to be going in the wrong direction. She’ll need to work out a trip from her high draw, but I think she has a shot. Kantex (#6) won the Downthedustyroad Breeders’ Stakes in her last start. She’s another one that has been sharp throughout this season. She was 4th in this race last year, but she was good enough to beat many of these at six furlongs. While I don’t think she’s as good at two turns, I think she’s good enough with this group, which is why I’ll use her in spite of the short price. 

Race 10:

Fillies and mares will travel six furlongs in this N1X allowance race. The course was speed favoring when Tilted Lady (#7) and Choctaw Bingo (#9) were a part of a three horse pace battle. That race played out like a merry-go-round that day and I sense their Beyer Speed Figures are a bit inflated as a result. Even though the winner of that race came back to run well at Churchill on Tuesday, I’m not sold that these ladies are going to be able to run back to that same race. I’m trying to beat both of them and I’ll make Pate (#11) the top pick. There’s a chance for some rain showers today and if the track were to come up muddy or sloppy, I’d like her even more. She ran some solid races on this oval last season, highlighted by a close second in the Dixie Belle Stakes. She tried two turns in the Grade 3 Fantasy where she finished 6th. She went to the sidelines until the end of December where she came back to finish second behind Backyard Money. Always Angels came back to beat her in a wild finish two starts back. She was generally sluggish in her last start, which is likely why she’s starting at 12-1 on the morning line. I love her at those odds, but I don’t think we’re going to get the number on her. The 6-1 range feels like the sweet spot in terms of fair value to me. Majestic Ways (#3) has five wins in her last ten starts for Jayde Gellner. She was 5th in the same race that the two shorter priced runners are coming out of. She looked like she was gearing up to go by them, but it looked as if she was stuck in a quicksand in the final furlong. She might be better at Delta and I’m not sure this six furlong trip is her best distance. However, she was close against the top horses in this race when the course wasn’t really playing to her strengths. Tiffany Twist (#12) makes her third start off the layoff today and she’ll make her first start at Oaklawn. She came back sharp at Will Rogers Downs in her last two starts, most recently finishing 4th in the Wilma Mankiller Stakes. She has three times as many place and show finishes as she has wins, so she might be a better horse to use underneath in the vertical exotics. However, with the right trip, she could definitely win this race. 

Race 11:

State bred, maiden fillies and mares, run with a $50K claiming tag in the nightcap. Despite the higher claiming tag for this race, there’s not a big difference in quality between races like this and some of the state bred maiden claiming races with lower claiming tags. Principal Anita (#8) is a live longshot in this race. She was bothered at the break by the horse in the stall next door when facing an open $30K maiden claiming field. She made a nice move while going four wide on the second time, but she flattened out when Thorny found another gear and crushed that field by nine lengths. That one came back to clear the N1X allowance condition in her next start, which came over this oval last week. She’s gradually improving and I think she’s better than what her last race looks like on paper. Pneuma (#5) was widest of all in a $20K state bred maiden claiming race here last month. She was routing for the first time and was widest of all going into the first turn. She finished 3rd, beaten 10 lengths in that race, which was an above contest for that condition. Her speed figures have gradually improved and she should be more fit for her second career route. My Julia (#1) is the morning line favorite in her first career route. Her full sister never ran longer than 6 ½ furlongs and her pedigree isn’t exactly crying out for this two turn mile distance. However, she draws the rail and should be forwardly placed as she drops in for a tag for the first time. Randy Morse and Rafael Bejarano have made a good pair at Oaklawn, winning 24% of their races together. She’s more of a backup for me in this spot. 

Meet Statistics:

Top Pick Winners: 123/547 (22.3%, $1,151.80, $2.11 ROI)