So many great races. . .so little time.
We will take a break from the horse-by-horse format do one piece that covers a trio of Grade 3s, starting with the Grade 3 La Prevoyante, slated to go at 2:04et on Saturday. And remember, it’s all graded stakes from here on out.
Race 7: Grade 3 Le Prevoyante
How good was the FM Turf? That might be the key question and we have basically no line on the form as there has only been one runback and it was the last place finisher.
If that 98 is to be believed, #5 BEAUTIFUL LOVE holds all the cards. This is farther than she’s ever gone but based on her blood and closing sectionals I think she’ll get home. I noted in another piece that Appelby, dominant as he is, hasn’t ever even run one on this day, so that’s notable. But ultimately, I doubt it matters as he’s able to ship horses hither and yon and win basically everywhere. Buick knows her well and does a great job of judging pace so she should get a good trip. I suppose the only question is price and or how low are you willing to accept. Brian Nadeau’s morning line guess of 5-2 would be plenty good for me. Even 3-2 not bad. Rising four-year-old looks a potential star should she continue to move forward.
#3 CHOP CHOP put together a string of strong figures going similar distances last year and was probably a bit unlucky not to win another graded race. Looks like she was purchased privately since the last run by Mike Repole, possibly as a broodmare prospect? She was grade 1 placed on dirt at 2 so that might be it. The last work catches the eye and Irad is aboard. She’s a major contender and has the best body of work in the race, though Beautiful Love may offer more upside.
There are stories to be told about #4 La Mehana and #10 Queen Regent.
#4 La Mehana has been in a series of slow-paced races and that might be why her figs aren’t a bit higher. She’s beaten Beautiful Love and excelled going 12 furlongs. There’s a world in which the top two are handled aggressively and this pace heats up at some point. I wouldn’t mind having this game runner on my side when they turn in if they’ve gone quick at any stage. The 9-2 of the ML doesn’t offer any great value but I’ll be tracking this one.
#10 Queen Regent requires more imagination. She’s been racing against faster paces that have mostly been helpful to her late run and offer an excuse for the flop three back when she was too close. She’s 0 for 2 going 12 furlongs but I think circumstances (bad trip, aforementioned fast pace) were the reason, not a lack of stamina. Interesting throw-in potentially at odds of 15-1 or so. Lower than that, there’d be too many questions.
VERDICT:
A+: 5
A: 3
B: 4-10
Race 8: Grade 3 Hooper
#5 TUMBARUMBA, last year’s winner, may have had the track against him last day according to TFUS. Not a horse you’d call a win machine but he is a hard tryer who nearly always puts in a representative effort. Hoping he’s set for a peak effort. Remember also that the last race was a two-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth and this is a turnback to a one-turn mile, the configuration where he’s done his best work.
On the podcast we did that also contained our Friday spot plays, Brian made an excellent case that perhaps #8 BOURBON RESOLVE could prove the best closer. Ian Wilkes is known for bringing horses around slowly and having them peak in big spots. This horse has worked his way through allowance conditions having run a career top last time and now might just be ready for his graded stakes debut in his 12th start. The Wilkes barn is flying at the moment and I’ll be using him prominently, albeit in a backup role.
#3 ROCKET CAN is almost an auto-use for me, based on his beating my top pick last time, and for the fact that he could also possibly be the best closer in a race with plenty of speed. As noted, he may have had some help from the track last time and now he’s playing Tumbarumba’s game with the one-turn mile.
VERDICT:
A+ Tumbarumba
B: 8-3
Race 9: Grade 3 McKnight
This is a tricky race where I keep going back and forth and I knida wish I’d done a horse-by-horse if only for personal clarity. But here’s where I landed.
#1 LIMITED LIABILITY gets the nod despite his somewhat confusing form. Dettori can be very aggressive and I am hoping he uses LL’s newfound tactical speed to get him in a positive position going forward and he can just kinda gallop them into the ground. The post and Dettori are ultimately why I put him on top, but he also ran some really fast races as a late five-year-old and may just be a late bloomer ready to reverse form with Bold Act, who he faced in the ’23 Sycamore. Speaking of which. . .
#11 Bold Act brings tremendous figures and form to the party and might just be the best horse. But this is a tough assignment trying to come from far back and the 11 post in a race where the pace just looks even and his main rival is so much better drawn.
Now let’s try to get clever for a backup.
At the morning line price of 6-1, I’ll probably just go ahead and let #12 Cash Equity beat me. And Brian’s educated guess at that number is probably right – it’s Saffie and Irad and a horse with solid numbers on a Saturday at Gulfstream. Distance is a major question but if he can work out a trip from out there, I give him a chance. And if the price drifts, my interest increases.
VERDICT:
A: 1-11
B: 12
[…] Races 7-9: A Trio of Grade 3s […]