We made it to Masters Day, everyone! The biggest day in Presque Isle’s racing calendar is here, and there’s a whole host of fun races to handicap. The best part is, I’ll be there to see it! Let’s get Masters Day started!
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $8,000 Post Time: 5:00 p.m
A tough claiming race to open things up. There are a lot of very live shippers entered in against proven hometown runners, a trend we’ll see through the whole card. I’m really not sure why they took Carlos Barbosa off Shannonia (#6) in favor of Rosario Montanez, but regardless I can’t ignore the 7-1 morning line because this horse has shown up in all of his races since late June, winning his last two starts with two completely different running styles. I really like the wide-drawn Minister Of Magic (#9), one of two entries for Shane Meyers. He’d won two races at Thistledown before clearly being outclassed in a Colonial Downs claiming race against Master Schemer and Colt Forty Seven. He also gets jockey Ricardo Feliciano aboard, the rider for the Malibu Moon gelding’s last two wins. The pace looks set for a complete meltdown, so I’ll slot in late-running My Boy Rocky (#4) for third based on his last win, where he came late under the hold of Walber Alencar to get the victory.
Race 1 selections:6-9-4
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time:5:27
I’m not a fan of seeing a jockey taken off a horse after having previous success, so I’m saddened by the decision to get the shipper Axel Concepcion for Justifiable Steel (#3) instead of Oscar Villarreal. I also don’t know how much I want to play into front-end types, remembering back to last year’s Masters Day, where the track favored closers. I wish I could point to her and clearly say she is the single you need to survive the early multirace wagers. It’s worth watching the board on Gipoia (BRZ) (#5), because I don’t think the morning line will hold. I’m not the biggest fan of Paco Lopez or his riding style but when he gets on a horse for the first time it’s worth taking notice. Though, I struggle to understand why H. Graham Motion doesn’t try turf with her, as she’s a graded stakes winner on turf in Brazil and is from an extended family of stakes winning siblings. I really don’t think Night Nurse (#1) will win this race, but the morning-line makers might know something I don’t. I wouldn’t bet her at 5-2 but maybe she drifts on the board. She’s at least an inclusion for any tri- or superfecta box bets.
Race 2 selections:3-5-1
RACE 3 – 6 ½ furlongs, Presque Isle Debutant Stakes Post Time: 5:54
The best look at tomorrow’s stars (and potentially next year’s Masters runners), the $100k Presque Isle Debutant kicks off the stakes action with nine 2-year-old fillies. If you’ve been reading these articles regularly, you’ll know I’ve been wary of works turned at Fair Hills training center, at times even calling it ‘Fair Hills magic.’ Well, for this race we must ask ourselves if we believe in magic, or Paco Lopez, or 2-year-olds with an 8-5 morning line. Michael Trombetta ships with intent, there’s no doubt about that, but I want to play away from the favored Royal Companion (#5) here, despite all the positives going for her which includes a work at Fair Hills and back-to-back wins on turf. I also want to keep an eye on both John Ortiz’s runners, with a $3.48 ROI and 20% win rate with his 2-year-olds. It’s the kind of race where if you took half the field in a pick-4 the chalk would win, and if you singled you’d get knocked out. While I don’t like the rail draw, I’ll pick Chef’s Kiss (#1) to get around this track well, seeing as Juan Arrigada has a 38% win rate with his 2-year-olds and this daughter of Greatest Honour came from off the pace to break her maiden in her first start. The wide draws always get live horses on Masters day it seems, and Gaddiel Martinez should have no problem with Almighty One (#9) even though she probably shouldn’t be 2-1 on the morning line. She’s faced stakes company before and came from last in a four-horse field to win last out. Slot in the #5 for third, because I don’t think Trombetta goes home empty-handed. If I was at the window for this race, I’d be tempted to hit ‘all’ and pray.
Race 3 selections:1-9-5
RACE 4 – 1 ¼ miles, Starter Optional Claiming Post Time: 6:21
One of the only times PID runs the 10 furlong configuration is Masters day. They should do it more often. This is also the race Starship Empire (#7) has been waiting for. In two tries, he’s run first and second at the 10f distance, a much better resume for going long than his contemporaries here. I really don’t like the horses shipping in for this race so I’ll post Van (#2) as my second choice, getting the meet’s leading rider Gaddiel Martinez and this horse has been in good form for his last few starts. Regal Kingdom (#5) may not have liked being a steeplechase horse but it’s possible he’s built up some stamina from the experience. He gets Axel Concepcion as well, and I’m keen to watch how the money flows to Axel’s mounts.
Race 4 selections:7-2-5
RACE 5 – 6 ½ furlongs, Power By Far Stakes Post Time: 6:48
The state-bred restricted $75k Power By Far Stakes marks the end of the early pick-5 and features a strong lineup of PA-bred runners. I’m choosing to wait and see on a few angles in favor of some proven runners, albeit at short prices. Shadow Factor (#3) is a favorite of mine, and I would be willing to wager this is a horse that the Presque Isle simulcast host, Patrick, tips as well. He’s run against these horses before and for the most part come out on top. His biggest obstacle to victory is the favored John Dutton (#4), who I’m sure will be a shorter price than the line suggests given the name and the Beyer Speed Figures that outclass the rest of the field’s recent form. The Boy’s Warrior (#5) is interesting at 9-2 given that he’s never lost in three starts at Presque Isle. While he’s caught heavily biased tracks in most of his starts, I think it remains to be seen if this horse has some untapped potential.
Race 5 selections:3-4-5
RACE 6 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 7:15
Buck’s Howl (#7) proved that he could shorten up in a win last time out, and he’s 3-for-4 in the money at PID. Thorn Of Hearts (#2) makes the change to Paco Lopez, which should attract some money from the bettors. It’s worth considering this horse has faced tracks biased towards both ways and still performed well. Reteko (#1) has run his best races in larger fields, so I think a good showing from him is incoming as well.
Race 6 selections:7-2-1
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes Post Time: 7:42
This race feels like a lottery drawing, and it’s not the way I’d want to get my pick-4 started. It’s time to call the receipts for Fair Hills and see if the angle still holds with Frost Rocket (#10) and Paco Lopez. There’s room to forgive his first start on the synth with a brush against the gate and just generally being green. Bossy Wossy (#3) knows the tapeta well and should not be underestimated, though his last win came on a biased track. Uncle Kef (#2) ran behind the #3 last time out, and has some class in a Grade 2 attempt at Saratoga that didn’t go well. Experience might be the deciding factor in this race.
Race 7 selections:10-3-2
RACE 8 – 1 1/16th miles, Presque Isle Mile Stakes Post Time:8:09
Keep in mind this is where the PA Pick-4 starts, spanning races 8 and 9 at PID and jumping to Parx on Saturday to close with the Cotillion and the Pennsylvania Derby (and be sure to subscribe to ITM Plus, I did a podcast on the sequence with Mikee P so don’t miss it). If the track doesn’t come up biased the same way it did last year, Neoequos (#8) is the play all the way to the window. If it’s geared toward the closers, he might be in trouble. He has the back class, his last work came back good in the 47 second bracket, and he’s shown that he can acclimate to new surfaces as evidenced by his Tropical Park Derby win. Defending winner Encino (#1) comes off a win in the Whisman and faces similar company, though the race has not returned very well so far. He’ll have the lead and the shortest way around, so favoritism is warranted here. Keep an eye on He’s A Mess (#5), who finished second to Heavy Pour last time out, the same Heavy Pour who went up to Woodbine and won the Grade 3 Vigil on Turf Champions Day.
Race 8 selections:8-1-5
RACE 9 – 6 ½ furlongs, The Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes Post Time:8:36
The biggest race of the meet always draws a good field. I think this calls for a horse-by-horse analysis, much in the type of my stakes articles (because I didn’t get to write one for this race as the newsletter goes out Fridays).
-Sea Runner (#1) is an interesting horse in this spot. She probably doesn’t want to be on the rail. There’s no denying that Will Morey ships with intent here, because he’s got 3 wins and 3 seconds in his 6 starts for the meet. Antonio Gallardo in the saddle doesn’t hurt either and I could see her winning, but it would take a lot to go right for her.
-In my opinion, Miguel Clement is the best trainer in North America right now at running a horse back within 2 weeks of a start. It worked for Caroline St. Beat in the $3 million Nashville Derby and he brings in Les Reys (FR) (#2) to run after a stakes on the Laurel Park turf just last week. She beat stablemate and last year’s Masters winner Gal In A Rush in the Ontario Fashion last year at Woodbine, and she has the right late-chasing style that got Gal In A Rush home to the wire last year. At 4-1 she’s worth keeping in consideration especially with Axel Concepcion aboard.
-Simply put, Micah Husbands has been a dangerous man riding first call for Saffie Joseph’s stakes barn, with wins on Skippylongstocking, Navajo Warrior and Eunomia already added to his tally this year. Paradise City (#3) has never run on tapeta but her dam is a graded stakes winner on the synthetic (placing in half her 20 starts) and multiple siblings displayed affinity for it, though none faced a test as tough as this one.
-I read somewhere that Paco Lopez has won more races this year than Jose Ortiz and I believe that statistic because he’s been riding out of his mind. I’m not his biggest fan (in fact I usually dislike his riding style quite a bit) but the man clearly gets results. Bolt d’Oro progeny are a booming 20% at synthetic sprints, you can draw a line through the Wild Applause(illustrating the double-edged sword of Paco Lopez as a jockey in general) and you’re left with a filly who’s come a ways from her third place tapeta effort under David Egan in March. It’s also worth mentioning that when Jorge Delgado puts blinkers on a horse it pays, just check the ROI and you’ll see what I mean. Paris Carver (#4) will be on my tickets if her morning line holds.
-Morning line favoritism is deserved with Reagan’s Flame (#5) who won the Grade 3 Seaway at Woodbine last out, but lots of sharp handicappers will want to fade her based on her form earlier in the year. To that I simply say, that’s a fair point. She’ll want the lead on a track I’m predicting will hate early speed (which I could be wrong about) and her last win came on an early speed favoring track. I think Edgar Zayas is a jockey that, if he gets his horse loose on the lead, can guide her home, but there’s a lot working against her and she won’t make you any money with a straight-up win bet the way things are now.
–Pondering (#6) hasn’t touched tapeta since last fall, but her two starts resulted in a win and a runner-up finish. Her works are ultra-consistent too. I think Pietro Moran is one of the most underrated jockeys in North America and him jumping on will be interesting. Her form so far this year is the biggest question mark, but I think a touch of tapeta will fix her right up. She’s run herself into condition, so the real question will be of her strength in this field.
-I love seeing the top rider and top trainer of Presque Isle team up in the big race, Gaddiel Martinez and Randy Russel have worked well together these past months and it’s paid off. I’m afraid, though, that we’ve seen the movie Mitole Magic (#7) is running in before, and we need look no further than last year’s edition of the Masters where she set the early pace and faded to finish 6th. In fact her resume this season is eerily similar to last year’s with a win and a 3rd in optional claiming company and a runner-up finish in the Satin And Lace before the Masters. I’m getting deja vu from it, and in this case it’s a bad thing.
-I struggle to make a decision on Peter Eurton’s Lovely Emma (#8) here because this spot just leaves me scratching my head. She’s primarily been a 5 ½ furlong turf sprinter, so you’re extending her and trying her on tapeta for the first time in graded stakes company? If she’d run a prep here earlier in the meet, I’d be happier with this move. I know Israel Rodriguez will ride his heart out but I’m letting this one ruin my boxes, leaving this one out of my wagers. Her dam didn’t impress on the tapeta, and I don’t see any family indicators that she’ll bloom on the all-weather.
-When Taylor Kingsley showed up at Presque Isle riding Quiet Street for Bill Mott, I took notice. She’s one of the top apprentices in the country, and I use her horses in my selections probably too frequently. However Jill Jitterbug (#9) would need a Beyer jump of 10 to 15 points to compete with this group. It’s cool that Kingsley has a ride, but this is the only horse I’d list as one to certainly avoid at the window.
When all’s said and done, my last desperate trifecta box will definitely include the #2 and the #4 horses. As much as I really don’t trust the chalkier options on the board, I think they’re necessary to consider. As to who wins it, I’ll go with the #2 Les Reyes. Gal In A Rush bailed me out last time on Masters day and I trust Miguel has this horse ready to go. Follow that up with the #5 and the #4 to complete the cold trifecta.
Race 9 selections:2-5-4
RACE 10 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Optional Claiming Post Time: 9:03
As you make your way to leave after the Masters, be sure to wave to me as I stand at the paddock with my head in my hands after these picks age horribly. Rock N Reward (#9) runs back quickly off an open claiming race and his record in state-bred company is consistent enough to warrant attention. Body By Carvel (#7) won last time out and should be strong with the extra half-furlong to work with. Reeled In (#5) also looks likely, coming off a win in state-bred company.
Race 10 selections:9-7-5
That’s all from me for Masters day. I hope to see you there!
