Welcome back to another week of Presque Isle handicapping. We kick off the week with the Satin And Lace Stakes, a race that could be considered a prep for the biggest race of the year, the Grade 2 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes in September. Let’s go stakes racing on the first Monday of August!
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
The price tags change but company remains largely the same for La Panda (#6), who beat several runners here last time out. Retaining Gaddiel Martinez gives me confidence in this horse to run well again. Taylor Kingsley has made the most of her mounts at Presque Isle and Gossiper (#5) has some class and ships in from Colonial Downs. Xerces (#3) at 12-1 is a price I want for any ticket here, though I think she’s outclassed. She’s only finished out of the money once in eleven starts over the Erie tapeta.
Race 1 selections:6-5-3
RACE 2 – 1 mile 70 yards, Starter Optional Claiming Post Time: 3:57
Brilliant Journey (#5) caught a biased track in a higher class last time out and was only beaten by a neck. His recent numbers dwarf the rest of the field here, and I don’t see him losing this one. Bosley (#1) broke his maiden on the tapeta but hasn’t been back to Erie since, so I’d keep my eye on this one. Adios Buccaneer (#3) is getting out of some tougher starter optionals and should find a bit of class relief in this race. He’s also finished in the money 5 times in 8 starts at this distance, a mark of consistency for the 6-year-old.
Race 2 selections:5-1-3
RACE 3 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 4:24
Rounding out the All Routes Pick 3 (which it isn’t officially dubbed, but should be) is a claiming race with some interesting ways to play. I’m going to go with an early pacemaker, Shaunnasaprilfool (#3) to get the win as she appears to be hitting her best stride right now with back to back wins. I’m not sure how I feel about changing jockeys to Victor Severino, but with regular jockey Martina Rojas under the weather, I’d tentatively say he’d fill in quite nicely. Lucy Playa (#2) is a horse I know I’ve been on before in spots, and she comes down in tag today for trainer John Fennessy. Silent Dive (#5) got one over on me last time, but I’m hesitant to say she’ll win this one with the class of the #2 and #3 here. I hope she proves me wrong.
Race 3 selections:3-2-5
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:51
I know I’ve used The Sinner Is You (#1) before, and I know people are going to raise eyebrows after that near 12 length loss last time out, but look at his last two works. He worked 3 furlongs over 34 seconds flat, and that’s enough for me to speculate with this morning line and the rail draw. Showdown King (#3) was much improved last time out and I think keeping Severino will help. This horse’s best Beyer Speed Figures make him a competitor in this spot. Golden Candy (#4) drops from optional company to the guaranteed tag, a spot of class relief that makes me think this horse should get Wadji Bouali his first in-the-money finish this year.
Race 4 selections:1-3-4
RACE 5 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 5:18
I don’t like to play shippers, especially because of how much money they take at the window. I do, however, want to acknowledge that Les Is Best (#6) might be the best today, in company with horses for the first time that might be more her speed. I would like to try and beat her with Intimate (#5) but I wonder how much of her last race I can credit to the track bias. Walber Alencar, the boy from Brazil, always seems to snag one or two every day, so I do like the shot the #5 has here. Starship Discovery (#3) ran a winning race last time out, and I expect her to compete in her first tilt against winners.
Race 5 selections:6-5-3
RACE 6 – 6 furlongs, Starter Optional Claimer $40k Post Time: 5:45
I’m not done with Right Now (#2) just yet. She did take a small step back in a race with similar conditions last time out, but it’s good to see Gallardo come back on after Yedsit Hazelwood (a young jockey I think is going places) rode her last time out. I nearly overlooked Strike D’oro (#5) until I caught whiff of his workout times. He just worked a half-mile in 45 seconds flat, a blazing time that I want a piece of if the track shifts to favoring an early running style. Jill Jitterbug (#6) sitting at 9-2 on the morning line makes me think the oddsmakers are overlooking her, despite the fact she finished ahead of the #2 last time out. Ryan Walsh has done no wrong in his limited starts on the Erie tapeta, a win and two second-place efforts in three starts, and this Cross Traffic daughter just worked a nice 48.4 over a half-mile at Turfway Park.
Race 6 selections:2-5-6
RACE 7 – 6 furlongs, the Satin And Lace Stakes Post Time: 6:12
The $100,000 Satin And Lace Stakes takes place over 6 furlongs for fillies and mares aged 3 or older. A field of nine draws into this race and it should be the most exciting race of the day. I’d like to say the most bang for the $2 win bet is H. Graham Motion’s Ribaltagaia (#5) at 7-2, but I fear the very recognizable name will draw as much money as the form lines will. This horse has some good turf races, HGM is decent at turning turf runners loose on tapeta, and the sire, Blame, has above average win rates on synthetic sprints and routes, giving me confidence this horse makes the switch. However, I don’t think the field gets past Brittany Russel’s Lost And Found (#2) who has certainly found her surface on the synthetic tracks. This filly is undefeated on the tapeta and Israel Rodriguez keeps the mount, always a good thing to see. Russel is 2-for-3 at PID this meet as well, showing she ships with intent every time. I hate Stylet (#4) losing Gaddiel Martinez but Scott Spieth isn’t a downgrade in my opinion. This horse has an opportunity to show some class here and puts a 3-win streak on the line, I just don’t think it’ll work out for her in the end against powerful competition.
Race 7 selections:2-5-4
RACE 8 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 6:39
Wrote In Stone (#10) will make up the early tempo, so I’m confident his break will be sharp and draw a smaller issue than some might think it would. His last BSF is the best last-out Beyer of any horse in the field as well. Piquant (#6) is a horse I want on my tickets based on previous synth form, though her one race at Presque Isle didn’t go well he still has great numbers on the Gulfstream synth. Good On Ya (#2) gets leading rider Gaddiel Martinez in the saddle, and drops in tag, making him a solid third selection.
Race 8 selections:10-6-2
It may not be my place to comment, but this last week was a reminder that good things might not last forever, pending the For Sale sign that was just staked through PID’s front lawn. Who knows what the future holds for the small Erie track? Who knows if we have one year left or a hundred more? Well, I intend to enjoy racing at Presque Isle as long as we have it and I hope you, dear reader, feel the same. See you tomorrow for more Presque Isle action!
