We saw some crazy Monday prices on the all-weather, so it’s a great time to take a shot, play a hunch, or throw out a real off-the-wall angle at these races. The latter half of this card could be hectic with some bigger fields, so let’s get into this card right now!
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 5 furlongs, Starter Optional Claiming $10,000 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
The track displayed some post position bias, with the rail prevailing on sprints and the wider posts taking the routes. With that in mind for today’s card (assuming the track isn’t magically reworked in the next several hours, a very real possibility) I’m taking Naked Eye (#1) as the top selection for the first race. While she caught a biased track last time out, the prices from today indicate that bias will help her along in the contest of early speed. I really want to see Time For An Angel (#3) return to form. She broke dismally in her last start, and wasn’t able to overcome the stumble like she did two back. Half Birthday (#5) becomes a threat for a few reasons. She gets leading rider Antonio Gallardo aboard, who won the Malvern Rose yesterday, and Scooter Davis has been hot getting these horses ready off the long layoffs. She needs a sharp break but she’ll be a good bet if she stays near her morning line.
Race 1 selections: 1-3-5
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 3:57
A rough maiden race, especially when factoring in the assumed post bias. Jenadriyah (#4) seems to be in the right spot for this race. An experienced horse should have the leg up here unless some horse makes a major jump, and #4 is as far out as I’m willing to go to find a winner right now. Should the track favor speed, Jenadriyah should be able to stay ahead of Violenta (#6), who’d prefer to come from off the pace. I’ll hedge the bias with Manon (#3) in the hopes that changing barns and coming north is the fix for her. Hopefully she gets involved a bit earlier than she did in her last run at Evangeline Downs.
Race 2 selections: 4-6-3
RACE 3 – 1 mile, Claiming $12,500 Post Time: 4:24
I’m not going to get too wild with this selection because Baytown Storm (#6) runs the right kind of style for these route races, coming from off the pace to pass horses. She could regress in form, however, due to Paul McEntee’s dismal stats with horses two races back from a layoff of 45-180 days duration. Cocktail Kisses (#3) should hang around on the front end and fight for a spot in the money, and I think Bossy Jeans (#2) could make some noise in her tapeta debut for the same reason.
Race 3 selections:3-4-2
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Claiming $15,000 Post Time: 4:51
I don’t think Keri Brion would ship this horse without good reason, and I have faith that Stark County (#1) will make the jump to competitiveness in his first run on the all-weather. I also expect Faaz (#5) to take a big step forward coming off the layoff. If you look at his workout times, they show that he’s working 4 furlongs a whole two seconds faster than he was in the fall before he made his first start. So Grand (#2) is the safe bet I’d include in any multi-horse wager, with the rail bias and how close he came in his last start to being a maiden no longer. He has a real shot to get it done today.
Race 4 selections: 1-5-2
RACE 5 – 5 ½ furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 5:18
I took a shot or two against the bias I think exists on this surface, but I think it’s time to go all in, especially with inside speed. Leonard’s Legacy (#1) is the inside speed I’m talking about, and should be ready to run back to his race three weeks ago into another winning effort. There will be stiff challenge from another last-out winner, Paschal Moon (#3) who won his first start back to the track and should be strong again. Mr. Bones (#2) will have an easier time hanging around on the front end but he’ll be settling for another bronze finish when it’s all said and done.
Race 5 selections: 1-3-2
RACE 6 – 1 mile, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 5:45
A lot of gunners in this race that will want that early lead, so the real question becomes who stays patient and who pushes for the front. I’m putting my trust in late-running Bravo Kitten (#3) to pick up the pieces of a broken pace. The drop in tag should also suit her well. Equinamos (#8) just missed out on a win last time out and should she lead the pack once again, will probably have the exact same thing happen to her. Dominant Stranger (#6) put up a decent run against #8 last time and I expect the 10-year-old to have some fight left at the end.
Race 6 selections: 3-8-6
RACE 7 – 1 mile 70 yards, Allowance Post Time: 6:12
Omikami (#10) hasn’t seen the synth in a hot minute but should return well to the tapeta here. He fits both my post position hunch and my run style theory, and he comes at a good price too. Even though she faces winners for the first time I can’t look away from Alluring Beauty (#5) and her 8 length win last time out. Her class speaks for itself with tilts at Keeneland and Gulfstream Park, and Riley Mott is a hot young trainer who has a high ceiling, so it’s nice to see him with a runner here. His last name, made famous by father Bill, could cause the horse to take some money quickly and shorten up the 6-1 morning line. Haut Les Cours (#8) slots in with the fastest last out Beyer Speed Figure of the bunch (excluding the other two I mentioned) and naturally slots into third for me.
Race 7 selections:10-5-8
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
I’d love to see Yourawizard Harry (#7) turn around from last week and score another win, especially as a horse who I had on my failed 4/5 Pick 5 ticket last week (totally not still salty about that) and one I tipped as my second choice in his last race, who struck big for a $17 dollar win payout. Instead, though, I think I’ll leave #7 as second choice to Strategyforyou (#6), who needed a start off the layoff and should look quicker with a lower claiming tag. Twist N’ Twirl (#8) comes off a $10,000 claiming tag to this field and makes his synth debut, and is also by Twirling Candy, a sire I really like. Stats be darned, this one is a pure hunch play. If Civaci is in the irons like it says on the sheet, then it makes this one all the more dangerous.
Race 8 selections: 6-7-8
I only got a couple favored horses home on Monday, so I hope fortunes reverse for this card. Hope to see you tomorrow!
