I forgot to post this last night, so apologies for the delay. I’m rolling into the midweek feeling good and I can only hope you feel the same. I’ve been hitting 50% of the winnersn on the last two cards, so let’s take another swing and see if I close out the Presque Isle racing week with just as much consistency or if it’s time to crash and burn. Let’s dive into this midweek card.
All times EDT
RACE 1 – 1 mile 70 yards, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:30 p.m
This race has two outcomes: One where Lazy Y Legacy (#6) runs back to her first race, a Turfway Park sprint that turned into a 60 Beyer Speed Figure and a second-place effort, or one where she doesn’t show up. I think it’s highly unlikely the #6 loses this with the previous all-weather form and drop in class. Oscar Villarreal is undefeated, a cool 1-for-1 at the Erie oval, and Aaron West ships with intent as evidenced by his 1-for-2 win record and 2-for-2 in-the-money record this meet. Starlit Sky (#5) is a horse that has the form and the numbers to compete here, I just think the class drop on the #6 looks better than the company the #5 has kept. English Lady (#2) at 12-1 is a price I want to key in on. When she feels like running she posts better figures than the rest of this field, but she doesn’t often feel like running. Perhaps a shake-up in the saddle with David Delagdo getting the call will wake this mare up.
Race 1 selections:6-5-2
RACE 2 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Claiming $7,500 Post Time: 3:57
Hot Gamer (#3) is an easy find, with two second-place efforts in her last two starts. Barring a freak effort, this is her race to lose, especially considering Gaddiel Martinez gets back in the irons again. Cats Gone Estray (#7) seems the only horse that can compete in this spot. I like the race she comes out and her last race might work her into top form. Hawkeyejet (#6) gets 7 pounds on the field with a rookie jock, worth speculating going into her second career start.
Race 2 selections:3-7-6
RACE 3 – 6 ½ furlongs, Claiming $25,000 Post Time: 4:24
I really like the race Braggart Joe (#5) comes out of from last June, losing out to Vinsanity, a horse that’s been really hot lately, by just 2 and a half lengths. He also worked 3 furlongs in 35 seconds flat, the kind of maintenance I like to see. Expresso Bay (#3) raises class but I don’t hate the jockey switch to Taylor Kingsley or the move to tougher competition after a convincing last-out win.
Race 3 selections:5-3
RACE 4 – 6 furlongs, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 4:51
Taking a shot in the dark here with Rainbow Ship (#5). This mare is by Midshipman, a rare sire with above-average progeny winrates on tapeta, and she worked a promising 47.4 seconds over a half-mile in her first tapeta workout. She doesn’t run that badly off a layoff either. Sparkling Silver (#4) got beat by a class-dropper last time out, and I suspect she’ll be competitive again coming from John Fennessy’s stable. Miss M M (#2) has been in the money each of her last four starts, and last time Walber Alencar got the ride, they were only a half-length off the win. I like seeing them paired up again here.
Race 4 selections:5-4-2
RACE 5 – 6 furlongs, Maiden Special Weight Post Time: 5:18
Watch out for War Profiteer (#5) the most likely winner of this race. Trainer Scooter Davis has a mind-bending 42% winrate when cutting back a horse who just routed. Fuoco (#6) at 7-1 is a must-play price in some capacity given how highly rated his last race was. He certainly didn’t embarrass himself coming off the layoff and I think he’ll have more to show this time out. Loan Me A Dime (#2) didn’t quite run to form with what the work catalog showed last out, but I think another tilt at this distance will make the difference for him today.
Race 5 selections: 5-6-2
RACE 6 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $5,000 Post Time: 5:45
It’s hard to tell who of these rivals comes out on top this time around. Drunk On Sake (#4) would be my guess, showing great form on route races and winning half his starts going this distance, finishing in the money 5 times out of 6 starts. Drunkle (#3) is another horse I think resumes form after running third, showing he likes the routes quite well with a win and a 3rd in his last two starts. Camilo (#6) will make up the early pace and I expect him to show up for rider Antonio Gallardo.
Race 6 selections:4-3-6
RACE 7 – 6 ½ furlongs, Allowance Post Time: 6:12
Frosty Beer (#3) at 8-1 is wild to me. His figures over the tapeta look excellent and he gets off the Kentucky circuit, a tough place for any horse. This is a spot he’ll enjoy. Via Della Spiga (#8) ran against a tough group last time out but no common rivals confront him here. Lord Of Mischief (#5) looked suited to the tapeta and should only get started in his second ever synthetic start.
Race 7 selections:3-8-5
RACE 8 – 1 mile 70 yards, Claiming $6,250 Post Time: 6:39
Golden Dogecoin (#3) got nosed last time by strong horse that just won yesterday named Shaunnasarpilfool, and drops in tag. Channel Me In (#2) faces winners for the first time but I think he turned a corner in his last race and Carlos Barbosa might have figured this horse out to maximize his potential. Collective Nation (#5) will stretch out for the first time, offering an opportunity to show strength at a new discipline for the Spieth duo.
Race 8 selections:3-2-5
Walber Alencar, the boy from Brazil, and David Delgado both picked up two wins each Tuesday. Don’t let that take away from how hot Israel Rodriguez has been though, with a win and three runner-up finishes. See you next week for more Presque Isle Downs racing!
