Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The G2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – By Eric Solomon

A dozen three year olds are set to go in this 200 point Derby Prep Race. This is a wide open contest with a field of 12 entered, 11 of which are expected to compete. Track Phantom has danced every dance in this series and he’s the 3-1 morning line favorite in a race where there are intriguing alternatives. 

Two winners of this race have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996. In recent years, this race has produced some quality runners, with Gun Runner, Girvin, Hot Rod Charlie, and Epicenter, all going on to win Grade 1 races after winning this race in the spring. Mandaloun finished 7th in this race in 2021, but would go on to cross the wire second in the Kentucky Derby that year, eventually being named the winner when Medina Spirit was disqualified.

The Louisiana Derby will close the 12 race card that will begin at 12:00 (CT). Post time for this year’s renewal is scheduled for 5:42 (CT). 

Fair Grounds, Saturday 3/23/24, Race 12: The Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby

200 Total Derby points (100/50/25/15/10)

1 – Triple Espresso  (20-1 ML): Luis Saez is named to ride this son of Omaha Beach, who would be making his first start on conventional dirt if he were to choose this race over the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he is cross-entered. I think the original plan was going to have him run at Turfway, however, he is stuck on the AE list there. As of the time I’m publishing this, it appears that he’ll defect from this race and take his chances of getting into the race at Turfway. If he does wind up racing here, I’m operating under the assumption there will be a jockey change as Saez is not named on any other mounts at the Fair Grounds, but he is slated to ride several stakes runners at Turfway. While there is some dirt ability in his bloodlines, I think Pletcher would have already raced him on the main track if he thought that was going to be his strength. I’ll pass on him if he’s running in this race. 

2 – Hall of Fame (8-1 ML, 45-1 Circa): He made some serious noise in January when he demolished a maiden special weight field on the Lecomte undercard, running a faster race than his stablemate, Track Phantom, ran when winning the featured stakes contest that afternoon. He caught a sloppy track in the Risen Star Stakes last month where he had a less than ideal trip. The first half mile was an uncomfortable experience for him, as he was forced to steady off heels when going into the first turn. He was covered up for the first ⅝ of a mile before Santana was able to get him off the rail and in an attacking position. He was floated a bit wide and was empty down the lane, finishing 7th, beaten almost nine lengths. He is not as fast from the gate as Track Phantom, and it seemed apparent that Santana didn’t want to engage in a duel with his stablemate. The forecast calls for nice weather on Saturday, so the track should be labeled fast or good by the end of the day. I do worry about allowing Track Phantom to easily access the lead once again, in spite of the different ownership interests. However, I think the ability is there and if you liked him last time like I did, the price figures to be better this time around. 

3 – Antiquarian (12-1 ML, 350-1 Circa): The second of three Pletcher runners entered in this race was a maiden winner on the Rebel card last month, holding off Cornishman to break his maiden in his second career start. Cornishman came back to clear the maiden special weight condition last week, running an improved figure from his second place finish in the slop. In his debut, he was defeated by Conquest Warrior, who came back to clear the first level allowance condition and is a contender for the Florida Derby next week. The freshman crop of Preservationist is off to a good start, winning 18% of their route races on dirt. I do think this is a horse that is eligible to improve, and he has enough early speed to possibly put legitimate pressure on Track Phantom, which is something that has not been there in his last several races. My gut tells me that he’d be better served going to a N1X allowance race instead of diving into stakes company, but in order to qualify for the Derby, he needs to get the points. He’s not impossible, but I prefer others. 

4 – Agate Road (8-1 ML, 30-1 Circa): After debuting in an off the turf race at Saratoga this summer, he went on to run in four straight turf races, with his most notable race being his victory in the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes. He was second in the Dania Beach Stakes on grass to start his three year old campaign and most recently went back to the dirt in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis in Tampa. He was near the back of the pack and left himself with a lot of work to do. He closed well to be second on a course where coming from that far back on the dirt is a difficult task. I do think his running style has the chance to play well on this course, although, I’m not sure he’s going to get the right pace setup in this race. He is cross-entered in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, but the intention is to run him in this spot. Irad Ortiz is in town to ride this afternoon, and he’s listed at the same morning line price as both Hall of Fame and Honor Marie. If those odds hold true, I think there’s more upside with both of those colts, and thus greater value.

5 – Catching Freedom (4-1 ML, 50-1 Circa): The second choice on the morning line makes his 5th career start today. He finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Sierra Leone and 1 ¼ lengths behind Track Phantom in the Risen Star last month. He sat in the middle of the pack, not too far off the pacesetters. He tipped out in the eight wide off the turn and was a little green while racing on the wrong lead for a good chunk of the stretch drive. That could have been a function of competing on an off-track for the first time, although it did take him a little time to switch leads in the Smarty Jones Stakes as well. He paired his Beyers in his last two starts in stakes company, so he could be due to take another step forward in this spot. Flavien Prat picks up the mount for Brad Cox as Luis Saez rides at Turfway this afternoon. I see him as a horse that could be primed for a big effort, but at this level, he can’t afford to race on the wrong lead for half of the length of the stretch. How Prat connects with this horse is likely going to decide if he’s going to win or come up a bit short once again. 

6 – Awesome Ruta (30-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): For a horse that went off at 223-1 in the Risen Star, finishing 6th, ½ length better than Hall of Fame, would qualify as outrunning his odds. His two best Beyer Speed Figures came in two turn races contested on sloppy tracks. While his effort wasn’t terrible, I don’t see him taking a big step forward on a fast track at this level. I’ll pass on him in this spot. 

7 – Honor Marie (8-1 ML, 25-1 Circa): The winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes back in November made his three year old debut in the Risen Star. He was near the back of the field in the early stages and he did finally start to hit his best stride in the final furlong. He ran the same kind of race three starts back, which was the other time he caught a sloppy course. He’s undefeated on a fast main track, and while he isn’t a great workout horse in the mornings, his last three works over this course have shown improvement. There’s an interesting jockey change of note as Rafael Bejarano, who has ridden him in all four career starts, is slated to stay at Oaklawn to ride Time for Trouble in the Essex Stakes (among other horses). British jockey, Ben Curtis, will take the mount, in which will be his first graded stakes mount on a North American dirt course. Curtis has ridden well at the meet, winning with 16% of his mounts so far this season. I’m expecting a better effort today.

8 – Next Level (30-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): The most experienced runner in this race makes his 9th career start this afternoon. He feels like a horse that is still discovering who he is and what he does best. His lone win came in a gate to wire win on this course back in November. Since then, he’s competed three times. His best effort in that span was a near miss at Oaklawn in a N2L allowance race. His two stakes starts sandwiched around that effort were not good. He tried to come from last in the Rebel Stakes last out, but he could do better than 8th, finishing 11 lengths behind Timberlake. He’d have to significantly eclipse his best current effort to beat this field, which feels highly unlikely. 

9 – Real Men Violin (20-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): He was the runner up to Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November. That was his best career effort from a six race two year old campaign that showed steady progression in his dirt efforts. He didn’t have a great trip in the Risen Star when making his three year old debut. Brian Hernandez tried to give him the same ride that he gave Mystik Dan in the Southwest Stakes two weeks prior. He broke sharp and was easily able to get over to the rail from the six hole in order to save ground going into the first turn. Some room opened up for him to advance down the backstretch, but he had to ease off the accelerator when Todd Pletcher’s Cardinale started backing up. He was able to sidestep him by scraping the paint at the top of the lane, but he didn’t have the horse that afternoon. The inside path might not have been the place to be on that course at the Fair Grounds that day, because late in the race, Hernandez did move him out a few paths. While I think he’s capable of improving from his last start, it is worth noting that Hernandez opts to ride Common Defense instead of this colt who he has ridden five times before. 20-1 feels like an awfully high number for a horse is likely better than his last race. I think the others are a little better, but he’s not the worst horse to throw in the bottom of the exotics. 

10 – Common Defense (6-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): McPeek’s other runner in this race is coming off a career top effort when he finished second behind Timberlake in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last month at Oaklawn. He took a big step forward in that race after having a trip in the Southwest Stakes similar to the trip that Real Men Violin had in the Risen Star Stakes. In the Rebel, Brian Hernandez used his inside post to secure a good stalking position along the rail. He cut the corner and came with a strong bid, but he’s not yet at the level that Timberlake is. He breaks from an outside post in this race, which shouldn’t be too problematic as there is a long runup before the first turn in this 1 3/16 mile contest. With Mystik Dan (also trained by McPeek and ridden by Hernandez) the Arkansas Derby, this seems like a good spot to retain the services of his rider and earn enough points to qualify for the Derby with another strong performance. He’s another one that has a decent chance in this race. 

11 – Tuscan Gold (8-1 ML, 150-1 Circa): This recent maiden winner shipping in for Chad Brown, feels like the X-factor in this race. He finished 4th on debut at Aqueduct in a maiden special weight race at a one turn mile where he was defeated by his stablemate, Sierra Leone. Brown gave him a little time and brought him back at the end of January to compete in a two turn race at Gulfstream, where he won handily. I would have preferred seeing another start in between those races before taking on a field as deep as this one. On the other hand, Sierra Leone was the only other starter for Brown at this meet and that decision seemed to work out well. Although it wouldn’t be shocking to see him win, my gut feeling is that is lack of experience is going to be what keeps him from finding the Winner’s Circle in this race. 

12 – Track Phantom (3-1 ML, 9-1 Circa): Much like Epicenter, who was also campaigned by Asmussen, he’s run in every race in the Road to the Kentucky Derby Series at the Fair Grounds during this meet. Epicenter won this race along with the Risen Star and the Gun Runner, where he came up just short in the Risen Star, but won the Lecomte and the Gun Runner. What’s interesting with him is that he keeps drawing outside post positions for these races, and he keeps running the same race each time. None of these races have had what could be described as an aggressive early pace. He’s a great gate horse that has been ridden by two jockeys that are excellent gate riders. Joel Rosario is back to ride him again after leading every step of the way last time out until he was nailed in the final strides. There’s no shame in losing to a horse like Sierra Leone, who is waiting for the Blue Grass Stakes in two weeks to make his next start. However, he essentially ran the same speed figure in each of his last four races. That was good enough for him to win three of those races rather easily. The water got deeper last time out, and while he still had an easy trip, the competition started to catch up to him. If he’s the favorite in this race, I think there will be better value on some runners that have shown they might have a higher upside. 

The Verdict: 2-5-12-9

This is such an interesting race because I think nine of the eleven horses that are projected to compete, have a fighting chance to win this thing. When I look at some of the runners here, I think Common Defense and Track Phantom are coming off performances where they had exceptional trips. Hall of Fame and Real Men Violin are coming out of races where they had significant excuses for their dull efforts and both could be candidates to rebound. Then I look at horses like Agate Road and Honor Marie that have ability, but are likely going to be pace dependent. There’s also Catching Freedom who seems to have the ability, but maturity becomes the question mark for him. 

I picked Hall of Fame to win the Risen Star because I thought his maiden breaking effort was sensational. I think Santana had the right idea in the Risen Star, but I don’t think he counted on Flavien Prat, aboard longshot Cardinale, conceding the lead to Track Phantom. Ironically, that decision by Prat inadvertently caused a great deal of trouble for both Hall of Fame and Real Men Violin. John Velazquez rides Antiquarian for Pletcher this time and I think he is more aggressive than Prat and will make Track Phantom work a little bit harder. As a result, I think Hall of Fame sits in the garden spot and tries to take it to his stablemate a little earlier this time. Between the wasted energy in an uncomfortable spot and the track condition, I think the energy level for Hall of Fame was compromised a bit. On a fast track with a better trip, I think the horse that crushed a maidens here in January, has the ability to return and pay a decent price while doing so. He’ll be the pick for me. 

In terms of ability, Catching Freedom might have the most. He’s paired his last two Beyers when winning the Smarty Jones and finishing a decent third in the Risen Star. He has looked like a beast at the top of the stretch in both races, but he looks like a horse that has a huge engine that he doesn’t quite know how to control yet. If he figures it out, I think he can win this race going away. He’ll need to switch leads sooner in order to maintain a straight path in the stretch. If his odds float up over his 4-1 morning line, I’d definitely be more interested. I see the 50-1 figure on him in the Future Book at Circa and I think that might be the best value on the board at the moment because unlike a lot of names on that list, I do think he has the ability to win the Derby. We’ll see if Cox and Prat can get him right for this one. 

I see both Track Phantom and Real Men Violin as horses that are better suited to be used underneath in this race. Track Phantom might be good enough to make his own trip every time, because he sure has had great setups in all of his local races. I wonder if he’s going to be able to finish as strong as the races get a little longer and I wonder how he’ll respond to some more serious pressure in the earlier stages of a race like this. On the other hand, I think it’s clear that he has the highest floor in this race. That was good enough to win some of the lesser races along the way. I’m not sure that will be enough to get him home first here. 

I see a lot of similarities between Common Defense last time out and Real Men Violin in this race. Both horses had tough trips on sloppy tracks that were worse on video than they looked on paper. Common Defense was largely overlooked in the Rebel, and I thought he was a great bet at 27-1 that afternoon because he had a great post and the right style for that race. If he was going to beat Timberlake, that was going to be the spot, since the favorite would have likely been the most vulnerable in his first race off the layoff. The rest of that field was fairly weak, so I thought that was a good swing to take. I cashed the exacta, but had to trash the win bet that afternoon as Timberlake was the better horse. My concern for Common Defense is that he was the best of the rest, which was not a great group, and he was in the position because of an absolutely perfect trip. He’s facing a deeper field today and there’s no guarantee his trip is going to be anywhere as easy while racing at a new venue. This might be the time to act on Real Men Violin, who is definitely better than his last race. The only difference is that this field is much deeper, so even at 20-1 or higher, I won’t be as aggressive with the win wager as I was when betting Common Defense last month. However, I think he’s a very sneaky horse that could liven up the bottom of the vertical exotics in this race. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.