Historically, this Grade 1 race has been an important stop on the road to Louisville. Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, I’ll Have Another, California Chrome, and Justify, all won this race before winning the Kentucky Derby. Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, and Giacomo weren’t fortunate enough to win the Santa Anita Derby, but they all used this race to help them prepare them to win the Kentucky Derby.
Last year, Practical Move won this race, but it’s interesting to note that the 4th place finisher, National Treasure, came back to win the Preakness last year. Baffert sends out both Imagination and Wynstock that could be looking to be on the same trajectory. The winner of the Sunland Park Derby, Stronghold, appears to be best suited to challenging them today.
Post time for this race is 4:45 (PT), which has this race being the last leg of the $3 Pick-3 connecting this race with the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass Stakes.
Santa Anita Park, Saturday 4/6/24, Race 10: The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby
200 Total Derby Points (100/50/25/15/10)
1 – Curlin’s Kaos (20-1 ML): This California bred son of Clubhouse Ride broke his maiden on the turf two starts ago. His trainer, Antonio Garcia, tried shipping him to Sunland, where he finished an even 4th in the Sunland Park Derby. While this is not the strongest field for this race, I haven’t seen enough improvement to think that he’s capable of hitting the board with this group.
2 – Tapalo (5-1 ML): I’m a little bit intrigued with this year old son of Tapiture that races for Hronis Racing and John Sadler. I thought his effort in the El Camino Real Derby on Tapeta at Golden Gate was strong. He moved early and was a game second behind Endlessly, who came back to romp in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway two weeks ago. He is improving and his last few works have been sharp. He has inside position on the other runners that want to be forward, but he may be asked to do too much in the early stages of this one. I think 5-1 is a little too short for me, but if his odds float up over 10-1, I could be convinced to play him to win.
3 – Stronghold (5-2 ML): I think Phil D’Amato was very smart to scratch out of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and bring this horse to New Mexico, where he was a handy winner of the Sunland Park Derby instead. Facing a horse like Nysos at that point in his career probably wouldn’t have done much for his confidence. Instead, he faced a softer field and put up a career top Beyer Speed Figure when winning that race. With Nysos on the sidelines, this race becomes more wide open. He came within a half length of beating Wynstock in the long stretch of the Los Alamitos Futurity, and I think he’s a better horse now than he was in December. I think he’s good enough to beat the Bafferts in this race.
4 – Imagination (8-5 ML): His job became much easier in the San Felipe when Scatify missed the break. He was able to work with his stablemate, Wine Me Up, to effectively box out that runner and keep him from setting the pace that day despite his rail position. He’s developed very nicely in his last three starts, and has been working steadily going into this race. There is more speed signed on, so he’s not as likely to get the same kind of easy trip he got last time. He’s never finished worse than second in five career starts and he figures to be in the mix once again.
5 – Wynstock (8-1 ML): I made him my pick in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn last time out, however, he seemed to want no part of that sloppy course as he finished last of the 11. He came out of that race in good order as he came back to the worktab two weeks later here at Santa Anita. He was dead game when coming back to win the Los Alamitos Futurity two starts ago, and he’s been working well of late coming into this race. While I think the return to California should help his cause, I think both Stronghold and Imagination are farther along in their development at this point. While it wouldn’t shock me if he won, I’m going to be looking elsewhere after getting burned by him last time out.
6 – Tessuto (10-1 ML): He broke his maiden in his first try around two turns at the end of February. Papaprodromou opts to try him in this spot, as opposed to trying an N1X allowance race, which is likely where he’s been suited. That tells me that the horse is likely giving off good vibes in the morning. The Kentucky Derby is also the Crown Jewel of American racing, so I understand the temptation to take a swing any time an owner has a three year old that looks remotely capable. However, from a gambling standpoint, I haven’t seen enough progress from him to endorse at this price.
7 – Mc Vay (5-1 ML): It’s wild to think that a maiden that has never finished closer than 6 3 ⁄ 4 lengths behind a winner in a race, is the co-third choice in a Grade 1 race. However, that is the case with this $1,250,000 son of Constitution. Shirreffs has been aggressive with him, running in both the Robert Lewis and the San Felipe. He has been getting better and he could be a candidate to run them down late, however, he hasn’t shown that he can compete with the better horses of this generation. A third place finish here could get him on the fringe of having enough points to run in the Derby, but I think this one needs to get back to facing maidens before trying these top tier races.
8 – E J Won the Cup (15-1 ML): Mike Smith rides the winner of the Turf Paradise Derby, who comes back to the site of his maiden victory two starts back. He led gate to wire for Doug O’Neill in Arizona last out as the 1-10 favorite. Drawing the outside post, he could be quick enough to apply pressure to the outside of Imagination, which could provide a good test for the favorite. However, I don’t see him as anything more than a pace factor in this race.
The Verdict: 3-4-2
I don’t see a crazy result happening in this race. I do see the two shorter priced runners having a decent advantage over their rivals though. I’ll give the edge to Stronghold, who got a confidence boost with his strong win at Sunland Park last time out. He’s been competitive when facing some decent fields, and while he’ll likely need to improve to beat the favorite, I think we’ll see him take another step forward today.
Imagination is the one to beat, but he’s going to have to prove that he can do that at this level , while facing a larger field. I think having Wine Me Up working in tandem with him last out gave him an edge over both Scatify and Mc Vay. They weren’t going to duel and they were able to race side by side, keeping Scatify pinned in and pissed off. Mc Vay made a mild bid, but when the Baffert duo quickened, he did not. I think how he responds to E J Won the Cup, assuming that Smith is going to try to send that one from his outside draw, is going to be the difference between winning and losing this race.
Tapalo feels like the most likely upsetter of the rest of this field. I’d be surprised if he goes into the starting gate at odds lower than Wynstock, who is more accomplished. Despite being run on a synthetic track, I think the El Camino Real Derby is going to prove to be a useful race. Having the experience at this distance should be a plus for him.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa, Caesars-William Hill, or Westgate will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
