Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes – By Eric Solomon

The Kentucky Derby Prep Season makes the first of five stops at Big A in Ozone Park, New York. The nine furlong Remsen is the first race in this series for horses going nine furlongs. This has been a useful prep race over the years. Both Thunder Gulch and Go For Gin used this race in the 90’s en route to Kentucky Derby victories. Pine Bluff won this race and the Preakness and Coronoado’s Quest was a winner here before going on to win the Haskell and Travers in that decade. Bluegrass Cat won this race in 2005 and went on to be second in the Derby and Belmont before winning the Haskell that year. In 2013, Honor Code won this race, but an injury took him off the Triple Crown Trail. He would go on to win both the Met Mile and the Whitney. Two years ago, Mo Donegal and Zandon threw down in this race, with Mo Donegal getting a narrow win. He would go on to win the Wood and the Belmont while Zandon would win the Blue Grass and finished third in the Derby in 2022. 

Last year’s running was not the deepest group, as Dubyuhnell took home the top prize, but hasn’t really done anything else of note since. His trainer, Danny Gargan, will try to win this race for the second straight year as he sends out the morning line favorite, Dornoch, who is a full brother to the 2023 Kentucky Derby Winner, Mage. 

There are 10 runners entered and I see this as a wide open contest that is a tremendous betting race. I could see making a case for nine of the ten runners in this spot, which could certainly produce multiple runners in this year’s Run for the Roses. 

Aqueduct Racetrack, Saturday 12/2/23, Race 9: The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes

20 Total Derby points (10/4/3/2/1)

1 – Le Dom Bro (50-1 ML, 200-1 Caesars): There are a lot of firsts in this race for the trainer of this Mucho Macho Man colt, Eniel Cordero. This will be the first time he saddles this runner, whose first three starts came under Antonio Sano. It will also be the first runner that Cordero trains in New York and the first stakes race that he’ll be the trainer of record for. He has three career starts, all in sprint races earlier in the year. He was second in his debut at Gulfstream in June and then second as the even money favorite there in July. Sano brought him north to Saratoga where he broke his maiden in a restricted maiden special weight contest. He’s bred to handle longer distances as his sire was the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and his dam was a stakes winner at 10 furlongs in Peru. Her best finish in the United States was a third in the Paseana Stakes back in 2015. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move forward a bit, going nine furlongs as a two year old coming off a four month break while also rocketing up the class ladder into graded stakes company, feels like too big of an ask for me. He’s probably the only runner in the field that I can’t make a case for winning this contest. 

2 – Domestic Product (10-1 ML, 125-1 ML Caesars): This son of Practical Joke debuted in a very tough maiden race on the Whitney undercard this summer at Saratoga. He was 5th that day, never threatening to finish in the money. Chad Brown gave him a few months off and brought him back in a nine furlong maiden race at Aqueduct where he showed some more speed. He drifted out a bit into the first turn, causing him to lose the rail and the lead. He rated kindly behind the leader before powering to the front, drawing clear to win by 4 and ½ lengths. That was a much better race than his debut and he’s the only runner in the field with a win at the distance and he’s only one of three with a win at two turns. Horses sired by Practical Joke do have some distance limitations, and despite the fact that this runner is of only four runners that he’s sired to win at this distance, I’m always a little hesitant to back his runners in races like this. Runners sired by Practical Joke have won 17% of the time in races up to a mile, hitting the board at a 50% clip. Those numbers drop to 11% and 37% in races at 1 mile and 1/16 and longer. There are others that interest me more in this race. 

3 – Dornoch (5-2 ML, 65-1 Caesars): The full brother to last year’s Derby winner, Mage, has been well-backed in his first three starts. He finished a game second on a sloppy, sealed track when sprinting at Saratoga in his debut. Danny Gargan brought him to the Jersey Shore to run in the $200K Sapling Stakes in his second start. He was bet down to the 3-2 favorite, despite facing a field of winners. He came with a wide bid to make the lead at the top of the stretch, but he couldn’t hold off a late surge from Todd Pletcher’s Noted. Gargan shipped him to the Keeneland where he faced a contentious maiden allowance field when going 1 mile and 1/16. Luis Saez used his inside position to make the front end and he went on to an easy 6 and ½ length victory. He’s drawn well in this wide open field for his first try in graded stakes company, however, his famous pedigree has led to him to being overbet in each of his three starts. This is a race where under different circumstances, the favorite should go off between 4-1 and 5-1, however, I don’t think we’ll get anywhere close to that number with him today. I think both runners to his inside could also decide to challenge for the early lead, so getting the cozy trip he got last out feels less likely today. His maiden score was good enough to use him on the multi-race tickets, and seeing him in the Winner’s Circle after this race would not be a surprise by any means. From a value perspective though, I feel we can do better. 

4 – Moonlight (9-2 ML, 75-1 Caesars): He debuted on the turf this summer at Saratoga and was narrowly defeated by Carson’s Run, who would go on to win the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine in September. His next start came in a race that was taken off the turf on this oval, where he was a dominant eight length winner. While I can’t speak to the quality of the field that he beat that afternoon, two of the runners that finished behind him came back to win in their subsequent starts facing maiden allowance types, one on the dirt, the other on the turf. Pletcher moved him up in class to face Grade 3 company in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill where he finished second behind Liberal Arts on a sealed and sloppy race course. It didn’t look like he was thrilled with the racing surface that day as it took him a little while to get going. He was under a drive from the top of the turn and gutted out a second place finish, but I do think he’s one that will be better on dryer footing. He returns to New York where he’ll reunite with Irad Ortiz, who was aboard for his first two starts. I do see him as a candidate to improve off that last race, but it’s hard to gauge what kind of price he’ll be. I think 6-1 is fair value for him. I do think both Dornoch and Sierra Leone are going to take a decent amount of money at the windows, but it’s hard to imagine a Pletcher runner ridden by Irad Ortiz will go off at odds over his morning line figure. 

5 – Drum Roll Please (10-1 ML, 150-1 Caesars): I talked about this son of Hard Spun over on the In The Money Youtube Channel earlier this week (linked below), and mentioned him as a value play in the second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded last week. I placed a few dollars on him at 139-1 in that  spot, which isn’t far off from the 150-1 that is being offered at the Caesar’s Books at the moment. There are some definite positives to speak of with this Pennsylvania bred colt sired by Hard Spun. He debuted in the slop on a sealed racetrack at Saratoga at the end of July. Two other runners from that race are entered here (Dornoch and Private Desire). The third place finisher in that race, Global Perspective, came back to beat Real Men Violin (second last week in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes) to break his maiden. Drum Roll Please ran into Locked in his second start and was clearly second best that afternoon, finishing 7 and ½ lengths behind the future Grade 1 winner, but 13 lengths in front of the third place finisher. He came to Aqueduct where he was sent off as the even money favorite. He drew the outside post and sat in the three path, pressing an aggressive pace for the one turn mile. He was four wide on the turn and looked like he was going to be defeated by Hunt Ball, a well bred Goldolphin second time starter who had all of the forward momentum. However, Castellano asked him the question and he pulled away from his challenger to win by two widening lengths under the wire. Hard Spun sired this year’s runner in the Derby, Two Phil’s and Brad Cox trained a PA Bred, Angel of Empire, to finish right behind him in third. The dam was a state bred stakes winner at two turns on dirt, turf, and synthetic. You don’t see too many owners shelling out a quarter million dollars for Pennsylvania breds, so I do think there is some definite quality here. I think he’s playable at this 10-1 price point. 

6 – Billal (12-1 ML, 150-1 Caesars): He’s the first of three runners in this race that are coming out of the Nashua Stakes last month, which was contested over a one turn mile on this course. He drew the rail that afternoon and was in tight, behind the leaders for the majority of that race. Prior to that, he was third in his debut in the mud behind Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Fierceness. He came back to break his maiden in his second try, going seven furlongs on this course. He’s sired by Street Sense out of the Bernardini mare, Bambalina. He’s the first foal to race from this mare, who only ran two times, both of which came on the turf. Her dam was the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf winner, Perfect Sting, which makes me wonder if we’ll see Bill Mott put him on the grass over the winter at Gulfstream. Kaleem Shah Inc paid $725K for him at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022, which was a little interesting since he was bred by Mike Repole. Repole has expanded his breeding operation over the last several years, but he typically likes to keep his better horses for himself. He’s one of the horses in this race that should definitely improve at this distance though, and Mott has been progressively running him in longer races with each start. I didn’t love his last race, but he’s another one that I would consider if his odds came up from his morning line. 20-1 feels like the number I’d need in this wide open contest. 

7 – Sierra Leone (4-1 ML, 150-1 Caesars): Chad Brown unveiled this 2.3 million dollar son of Gun Runner last month in a one mile maiden special weight race here at Aqueduct. He was in behind runners, covered up for a good part of the race. He came with a wide bid and failed to change leads throughout the length of the stretch, but was still able to gut out an off the pace win. I always have respect for horses that can break their maiden at seven or eight furlongs in their first career start. He encountered multiple issues at different points in that race, so I’m willing to look past the slower Beyer Speed Figure. However, at 4-1, it’s hard to ignore the fact that eight of his rivals own at least one Beyer figure that is higher than the 71 he earned on debut. He has every right to improve, but this feels like a big test for his second start. 4-1 is simply too low of a number for me. I’d need to get at least 8-1 to use him in the verticals, but he’s yet another runner that makes sense to have covered in the multi-race wagers. 

8 – Where’s Chris (6-1 ML, 150-1 Caesars): He was the 19-1 upset winner of the Nashua Stakes for Richard Dutrow, capping what was a very good first weekend in November for him. The son of Twirling Candy has a nice pedigree, as his dam was a stakes winning mare on the turf. Her runners have won races on turf, dirt, and synthetic, so the pairing to Twirling Candy would likely produce a versatile runner that could compete on any surface. However, he only sold for $20K at the OBS Sale in April of this year, indicating that there was something that was less than ideal about him when he was in the ring. He debuted in September on this oval in a restricted six furlong maiden allowance race where he was a much the best winner. Dutrow entered him in the Futurity Stakes, which was originally scheduled for the turf. That race came off the grass and he ran third, about six lengths behind Book’em Danno, who was favored in the Nashua when they met again. Perhaps the slow start from Private Desire to his outside that afternoon helped him sit the perfect trip, stalking a slowish pace for the distance set by the favorite. The added distance seemed to help his cause as the two runners battled throughout the length of the stretch, with him getting the upper  hand late to pull off the upset. He faces a larger and tougher group in his first at two turns today. While I have no qualms about the distance for him, I don’t love his post for the race that I think he wants to run. He proved he doesn’t need to be on the front end when he won his debut, but I think the challenge for Isaac Castillo is going to be trying to avoid losing too much ground into that first turn which comes up rather quick. David Aragona made him the 4th choice on the morning line, and while the 6-1 feels a little light for me, I think there’s a lot to like with this one. 

9 – Copper Tax (10-1 ML): This Maryland based Copper Bullet colt has five wins in six career starts for Gary Capuano. He just missed in his debut with maiden/optional claimers, but he handled his business at that level in his second start. He was an easy winner when facing Delaware Certified horses in allowance company in his next two starts. He tried two turns for the first time two starts back in the Rocky Run Stakes where he was an easy winner. He cut back to six furlongs three weeks ago when he was entered in the J.F. Lewis Stakes at Laurel. He was bumped at the break, costing him valuable early position The rider nor the horse never panicked though, and he came with a well-timed move to take home the top prize. In many ways, that race was by far his most impressive win on his resume. I have some concerns about the distance and the wide post for a horse that is moving up in class. In addition, his speed figures have been hovering close to the same numbers for the last four races. He’ll likely need to do better to win this race, but he’s a productive horse who certainly knows his way to the Winner’s Circle. At 15-1 or better, he’d be an interesting payer in this one, 

10 – Private Desire (10-1 ML, 150-1 Caesars): Todd Pletcher’s second runner took the worst of the draw today, getting hung out wide in Post 10. He broke slowly in the Nashua when he was in the outside stall in a five horse race. He’s another runner that debuted in the 7/29 maiden special weight at Saratoga. He came back during the first week of the Belmont at the Big A meet and won impressively, posting a 94 Beyer Speed Figure, which is the top number for this group. Perhaps he needed that extra time and that was his first race on dry footing as he debut came on a sloppy course. However, I think the maiden fields here are typically a little softer in September as most outfits want to win with their best horses at Saratoga. Every other horse from that maiden race is still a maiden, so despite the big figure, I’m a little weary about the runners he beat. He was well backed in the Nashua off that effort, but he got away slowly from the gate. Castellano was patient, and he kept him at the back of the field instead of trying to rush him up. To me that’s a veteran move by a rider trying to give a young horse a decent education. Castellano opted to ride Drum Roll Please in this spot though, so Pletcher turns to Jose Lezcano. While I could make an excuse for his last race, I think others in this spot are better. I’m not convinced that he;s good enough right now to overcome a tough draw, He’ll be one that I’ll be trying to beat. 

The verdict: 5-4-8

This race is going to come down to value for me. To me, this is a definite spread race in the horizontal wagers, where I’ll try to get skinny in some of the other races. I think there’s a case to made for nine of the ten runners here, so I don’t have the strongest opinion. However, if there is a runner that is looking good in the paddock and warming up, but the betting public is hammering Dornoch and Sierra Leone, I’ll definitely be using them. 

For me, both of those colts could easily win this race, however, I just don’t see there being proper value on either. Dornoch, being a full brother to a Kentucky Derby winner, has been overbet in each of his three starts. While his win at Keeneland in his last start was impressive, he had things pretty much his own way on the front end. Sierra Leone was a winner on a day where nothing seemed to be going his way. While I love that quality in two year old, there is a lot of buzz around this horse. Perhaps it’s the 2.3 million dollar price tag and the fact that he’s trained by Chad Brown that is adding to his allure. I didn’t love how he was traveling once he was in the clear in that race and his inability to switch leads in the stretch was concerning, especially as he’s asked to do some new things today. He was bet down to 34-1 in the second pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which was way to low of a number for me at this point and it tells me that the betting public is going to be on him again today.

I’ll try to beat both of those favorites with Drum Roll Please for Brad Cox. I think his last race was better than it looks on paper after pushing an aggressive pace and then fending off a runner with all the forward momentum in the stretch. Cox thought about going to Kentucky with him, but opted to run him back in New York where he has been based. I think the added distance is a plus and I think he could be the one who is overlooked in the wagering. 

I think both Moonlight and Where’s Chris are serious contenders in this race. I don’t think Moonlight ever found his best stride in the slop in the Street Sense Stakes in his last start. Returning to the site of his maiden triumph, along with getting Irad back in the saddle are both plusses for me. I do think he can get a decent trip, especially with some horses that want to be forwardly placed, slotted to the outside of the starting gate. His price might be a little short, but if he is the third choice in the wagering in this wide open race, I think 9-2 or 5-1 is entirely possible. 

Where’s Chris is one of those runners that will have to navigate a wider draw in this field, and the margins for error being so slim in this race, that is something to consider. Even though he had a sweet trip in the Nashua, I thought he was very good that day. It was his third start and his first race at one mile, so the dramatic improvement could be sustainable. Dutrow’s barn has been firing on all cylinders lately, including a win with White Abarrio in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last month. I think the buyers might have missed the mark on this well-bred colt who is looking for his first graded stakes score. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24FlxzfG8EM