Road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby – The Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby – By Eric Solomon

The Tampa Bay Derby was first run back 1981, and while it doesn’t have the deep history as many of the other Derby preps do, Street Sense put this race on the map in 2007. Carl Nafzger opted to bring the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner here for his seasonal debut, where he clashed with Any Given Saturday in one of the more memorable runnings of this race. He would go on to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby, being the only Derby winner to emerge from this race. Tapwrit won this race in 2017 for Todd Pletcher and went on to win the Belmont Stakes that year. Pletcher won last year’s edition of this race with Tapit Trice. Post time for today’s running of this race is 5:18 (ET).

Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday 3/9/24, Race 11: The Grade 3 Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby

105 Total Derby points (50/25/15/10/5)

1 – Heartened (10-1 ML, 500-1 Circa): Todd Pletcher looked loaded going into Derby Season, but he’s taken some lumps this winter with Fierceness losing the Holy Bull, Locked being withdrawn from Derby consideration, and his phenom Speak Easy, running off prior to the start of the Fountain of Youth and being forced to scratch out of that race last week. While I don’t think this three year old Street Boss colt is in his Top-5 Derby considerations right now, he did break his maiden rather easily on this course when going two turns on the dirt for the first time in his career last month. He’s also shown some promise on the turf, but when looking at how soft this field was coming up, taking a shot for $400K with a horse that has essentially won at this track and distance seems like a logical choice to make. He’s the first foal from the Bernardini mare Rare Find, who started three times on dirt, winning once at one mile at Del Mar. With his connection in this race where there are not many standouts, I think he’ll be bet down from his 10-1 morning price. While value will be a question mark, because I do think the 10-1 morning line number is fair, I think he’s a contender in this race. 

2 – Everdoit (30-1 ML): He was sent off at 127-1 in the Sam F. Davis last month, but his race was over at the break when he tossed jockey Huber Villa-Gomez to the ground shortly after the gate opened. He broke his maiden here in December and was second in a weaker allowance race 18 days later. He tried the Mucho Macho Stakes in January and was last of six that day. He was tough to get behind last time out and I feel the same way today. 

3 – Give Me Liberty (30-1 ML): He’s one of two maidens in the field, racing for Robertino Diodoro. He claimed this runner on behalf of Ken Ramsey in November for $100K, which was half of his initial purchase price at auction in 2022. He was dull in his debut when running for Rodolphe Brisset, but he has come back to run two decent second place finishes in maiden special weight company at Oaklawn. He was second to Common Defense and Dimatic, both of who recently ran in the Rebel Stakes, where Common Defense finished second. While he has yet to win, he’s not the worst horse in this race, and since this year’s edition came up thin, taking a shot for a piece of the $400K pot isn’t the worst idea. I prefer others, but it’s not crazy to think he could hit the board. 

4 – Good Money (15-1 ML, 500-1 ML): It’s interesting to see Irad Ortiz hop aboard this Chad Brown second time starter. He debuted here at the end of January and was a workmanlike winner of a maiden special weight contests going seven furlongs. Brown has great numbers going from sprints to routes and I can’t fault him for taking a big shot in this race, knowing how soft this field came up. However, it’s still asking a lot of a horse that I think would have debuted at Gulfstream on the Pegasus World Cup undercard (the seven furlong maiden special weight race won by Speak Easy) if Brown thought he was good enough to win a Derby points race like this. I think the fact that he is trained by Brown and ridden by Ortiz is going to knock his price down below his 15-1 morning line, which would be too low of a number for me. 

5 – Domestic Product (8-5 ML, 125-1 Circa): The second, and more heralded runner for the Chad Brown barn makes his second start of the season in this Grade 3 event. He was second in the Holy Bull when he finished in front of the two year old champ, Fierceness. As a result, I fully expect him to be the post time favorite in this race today. The Holy Bull was an odd race as the fractions were slow and the favorite didn’t fire his best shot. Gaffalione rode a brilliant race to be second with this son of Practical Joke. He tucked in behind runners after being bumped a bit when breaking from the five hole. He sat in the second flight, but made it right to the rail in a race that starts on a turn. Fierceness on the other hand was wide throughout. Hades, the race winner, was able to use his rail position to slow the pace down, forcing Domestic Product to run off his heels. Gaffalione had to wait, but once he was clear, he tipped out off the final turn and made a run, but he came up short in the short stretch of the 1 1/16 race at Gulfstream. That effort was far more encouraging than the race that he ran in the Remsen back in December. However, that effort looks better when you factor in what the top three finishers from that race have done in their subsequent starts. He has a sharp jockey and one of the best trainers in the country preparing him. I think he is the class of the field and if he’s able to either replicate his last effort or improve off that race, he’s going to win this race. 

6 – Catire Vizcaya (30-1 ML): He’s a big longshot for Juan Avila, making his second start as a three year old. He broke his maiden in his second career start at Saratoga this summer, when winning a restricted maiden special weight race at seven furlongs. He tried a smaller stakes race at Delaware and walked home after he faded badly. He made his first start of the year last month in a seven furlong N1X allowance race where he was beaten by 10 ½ lengths. He doesn’t look like a horse that is screaming out for more distance, so I’ll be passing on him. 

7 – No More Time (7-5 ML, 55-1 Circa): The morning line favorite was the lukewarm favorite when winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes here last month. By doing so, he proved that his antics in his prior start were not who he really is. He was never in danger of losing last time out, leading all the way around the track. That was not a particularly strong field, but neither is this group. Javier Castellano takes the mount for the first time as Paco Lopez, who rode him last time out, is staying at Gulfstream this weekend. If he wants to win in the same fashion, he’s going to have to outsprint Everdoit, Give Me Liberty, and Good Money to avoid going four wide into the first turn. While I don’t see any of these three runners as real contenders in this race, I do think they could easily be pace factors that could make his life difficult today. While he’s not facing a stellar field, taking a short price on him is not a great proposition. 

8 – Crazy Mason (12-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): The most experienced runner in the field is making his 8th career start today. He was stakes placed in a pair of smaller stakes races here and at Delaware. He was able to clear the N1X allowance condition in a slower race at 1 mile and 40 yards on this oval in January. He tried graded stakes company in the Sam F. Davis last time out and he finished 6th, beaten 11 lengths, with no real excuse for such a dull effort. With seven starts already in the bank, I think the chances that he is going to take a big step forward in this race are slim. Despite the fact that he is one of only three horses in this race with more than one victory, I’ll be looking elsewhere. 

9 – Grand Mo the First (12-1 ML): This Uncle Mo colt, trained by Victor Barboza, has never run a bad race in four career starts. He broke his maiden and cleared the N1X condition on the Tapeta at Gulfstream in the summer. Barboza shipped him to California for the Grade 3 Zuma Beach Stakes where he was third in his first try at two turns on the turf. He was given some time off and made his dirt debut in the Swale Stakes last month. He was covered up most of the race after stumbling a bit at the start in a tightly packed field down the backstretch. He was in between rivals and Paco Lopez couldn’t try the rail, so he was forced to make a six wide bif at the top of the stretch. I thought he ran on well to be third day, and I see a future with this runner on dirt. He feels like a horse that can run on any surface, and I think he’ll improve at two turns. His barn has good numbers with horses second off the layoff and going from sprints to routes. I also like Samy Camacho, the leading rider at the meet, taking the mount today. I see him as the biggest threat to beat the favorites. 

10 – Sturdy (8-1 ML): He’s the other maiden in this field, making his last two starts in nine furlong races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. Domestic Product beat him by 4 ½ lengths in New York two starts back in October. He went to the sidelines  and returned two weeks ago in a maiden special weight in Florida where he closed well late to finish 3rd. His last race Beyer Figure certainly fits with this field, and there’s reason to believe that he could move forward in his second start off the layoff. He doesn’t have a ton of speed though and deeper closers have historically struggled on this track. I’d like him better if I thought the early pace was going to be strong, however, I’m thinking that the tempo will be more moderate, which should be to his disadvantage. 

The Verdict: 5-9-1

While No More Time certainly could win this race, I’m not convinced that he’s going to get the easy trip he had in the Sam F. Davis last month. He’ll likely have to improve as well as handle some adversity to come away victorious. Even if he is not favored, he’ll almost certainly be the second choice in the wagering, and I can’t see him going off at odds any higher than 5-2 in this field. To me, those odds are too short for him and I’ll be siding against him.

Domestic Product will be a short price, but I think he has a significant class edge over the others in this field. It feels like starting here was intentional, as the short stretch of the 1 1/16 races at Gulfstream might not be ideal for the kind of race that he wants to run. Upon re-watching his performance in the Holy Bull, I thought he was really good. He had a great ride, but his trip wasn’t great. He looked like a horse that could be getting better for a barn that certainly knows how to win these races. He’s the pick in this spot. 

Grand Mo the First is the most intriguing longshot in this field to me. He feels like a horse that can run on any surface. I think his race in the Swale last time out was better than it looks on paper and I like him going to two turns today. I don’t love the outside draw, but I think Samy Camacho rides this course as well as anyone.

Todd Pletcher sends out Heartened, who is coming off a maiden score on this oval. He is going to need to be faster to be a factor in this race, but he’s drawn well for the race he wants to run. Having Jose Ortiz riding also won’t hurt his chances. I think there’s a good chance that he is a shorter price than his 10-1 morning line odds though, meaning the value won’t be great. I do think he’s one of the runners outside of the top two with some upside in this race though. 

We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.