The first of two stops on the Derby Trail in Oldsmar, Florida, lost some juice at the beginning of the week when the projected favorite, Locked, was withdrawn from consideration after spiking a fever. Like last year, there’s a full field of 12 looking to separate themselves from the pack of prospects for this year’s Run for the Roses.
Litigate won this race for Todd Pletcher last year, but was sidelined due to an injury that has kept him off the track since that big win. He’s beginning to gear up for his four year old campaign. Some of the better winners of this race include Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday, both of which would go on to earn Grade 1 wins in the Haskell later in their three year old seasons. Classic Causeway won this race and the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in 2022, and would go on to be a Grade 1 winner on the turf when winning the Belmont Derby in July of that year.
Todd Pletcher sends out a pair of runners today with Tireless and Agate Road, but the morning line favorite is Change of Command for Shug McGaughey. Post time for this 1 1/16 mile contest is 5:15 (ET).
Tampa Bay Downs Saturday 2/10/24, Race 10: The Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes
40 Total Derby points (20/8/6/4/2)
1 – El Principito (50-1 ML): Since breaking his maiden on the Tapeta with $25K maiden claimers at Gulfstream in September, he has run five times, four of which have come in stakes company. He has been a longshot each time and hasn’t hit the board in any of those races. Most of those races he’s been beaten by double digit lengths, hence the long morning odds. He feels like he’s in way too deep once again.
2 – Tireless (12-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): The first of two Pletcher runners in this field was an $875K purchase for St. Elias Stable, Repole Stable, and LNJ Foxwood Stable at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022. He ran well on debut on the turf at Kentucky Downs before finishing a troubled trip 5th in start number two at Keeneland. He was second in an off the turf maiden race at Churchill before coming here last month where he was able to break through for the first time. While this course can be a little bit tiring, it wasn’t particularly encouraging to see him in an all out drive in order to win at 1-2 odds. On the positive side, his two dirt efforts have been solid and he could be in line to move forward after pairing his first two Beyers when running on the dirt. While I think he could move forward, I still prefer others, especially when considering I don’t think we’re going to get the proper value on him based on his trainer.
3 – Patriot Spirit (6-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): This son of Constitution was foaled by the Grade 1 winning sprinter, Mistical Plan. He was very good when breaking his maiden on debut at Colonial, but he was uber-aggressive in the early stages of the Iroquois when making his second career start. He folded up to be 6th in that race. Flavien Prat had him under a strangle hold in the Bowman Mill and he didn’t respond well, finishing 4th as the favorite that afternoon. He was last seen winning the Inaugural Stakes two months ago, when going six furlongs on this oval. Samy Camacho had him more relaxed that day, stalking the front end from his outside draw. After more than 60 days away, he’ll be asked to get two turns for the first time today. I think it’s likely that he ends up on the lead in this spot, but unless there is a definite speed bias, I think he’s going to be struggling in the final furlong of this one.
4 – Crazy Mason (10-1 ML, 200-1 Circa): Parx based jockey Mychal Sanchez was in New York last weekend, piloting Uncle Heavy to an impressive score in the Grade 3 Withers. He travels south this weekend to try to earn some Derby Points for this modest son of Coal Front. He was very good this summer when crushing a restricted maiden allowance field at Saratoga. He was no match in the Sapling when he was beaten by Noted and Dornoch at Monmouth. He was third in the Rocky Run behind Copper Tax and then second to Patriot Spirit in the Inaugural. He dropped back into allowance company where he cleared the N1X condition here in a two turn test. Greg Sacco has had a very productive meet, winning 23% of his races here. Sanchez has been aboard for both local efforts, so it’s nice to see him back. I don’t love that some other runners in this race beat him somewhat easily when he last faced them.
5 – No More Time (10-1 ML, 225-1 Circa): Like Mychal Sanchez, Paco Lopez rode a winner in a Derby Points race last weekend, pulling off the upset with Hades in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream. This son of Not This Time was scheduled to compete in that race, but he opted out of that spot in favor of this one. He was an impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream in October, when making his second career. Jose D’Angelo waited for the Mucho Macho Man Stakes to bring him back. He was a little hard to handle coming out of the gate for Jose Ortiz. He settled down and came with a wide bid and flattened out late, finishing 5th that day. He’s worked well over at Palm Meadows, which could be a sign that he’ll be more fit for his first two turn race. I think he’s an interesting longshot in this one, but I do think 10-1 is a little light.
6 – Agate Road (7-2 ML, 100-1 Circa): He debuted at Saratoga in an off the turf mile contest on Whitney Day back in August. He was very slow into stride, but was gaining well late to finish second by the narrowest of margins. I thought his pedigree leaned more toward dirt racing, so I loved him to beat the Chad Brown favorite that day. I was a little surprised to see his subsequent start to be on the turf, but came with a smart late rally to get the job done. He followed up that effort with a win in the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes this fall before running a respectable 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita. He made his first start as a three year old last month in the Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream where he finished second. He comes back to the main track for the first time since his debut effort. Irad Ortiz has been his regular rider, but Jose Ortiz is going to get the call today. He’s another one that will likely be a shorter price than what I’d be willing to take in this wide open race.
7 – Copper Tax (5-1 ML): This five time winner is making his first start since a brutally wide trip in the Grade 2 Remsen back in December at Aqueduct. He was pretty much five wide all the way around the first turn on a sloppy track that he didn’t look comfortable on. He was wide into the second turn as well when he began to back out of the picture. Prior to the start, he won five straight races at Delaware and Laurel, winning the Rocky Run and James F. Lewis Stakes. Gary Capuano gave him a little time off and has given him a pair of one mile works in preparation for another try at two turns. I think he can sit a very cozy trip off what could be a solid pace. I see him getting first run on the back markers. While I have nothing against Charlie Marquez as a rider, I do find it a little odd that he got this mount over some of the other possible alternatives. Regardless, I see him as the one they’re going to have to beat.
8 – Everdoit (30-1 ML): This son of the low profile stallion, Gary D, debuted at Presque Isle Downs and broke his maiden at two turns on this course in December. He ran well in his third start, finishing second at long odds in a N1X allowance sprint on this course, 18 days after his maiden breaking score. He tried stakes company in the Mucho Macho Man and was last in a field of six, in a race where the top five were closely grouped throughout the length of the stretch. He did a lot of racing in a 30 day span, so coming in off six weeks off is a plus, however, this field is stronger than the field he saw downstate at Gulfstream, and I’m not seeing enough in his running line to think that he’s ready to take that big of a step forward.
9 – Change of Command (3-1 ML, 65-1 Circa): The morning line favorite comes to town after consecutive scores downstate at Gulfstream. He’s an Into Mischief colt that cost over a million dollars. He ran into Fierceness when making his debut at Saratoga and he was tackled by Sierra Leone three starts back at the Big A. He’s looked like a different animal after spending some time in the Sunshine State. I do think Tyler Gaffalione, who is riding for the first time, is going to try to put him in play early in this race seeing as how blinkers are going on for the first time. Being forward is typically a decent thing on these big race days at Tampa, so I will be using him, even if the pace scenario and his wider draw are less than ideal.
10 – West Saratoga (8-1 ML, 200-1 Circa): He was winner of the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes back in September when he was able to close into a very strong pace in that one mile test. He had no answer for Locked in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in his next start though. Larry Demeritte gave him a little time off and brought him back in the seven furlong Pasco Stakes here four weeks ago. He was no match for Book’em Danno, who drew off to win by over 12 lengths that afternoon. He only cost $11K, so he’s already been a tremendous bargain, earning over $300K on the track in his first eight starts. He hasn’t been nearly as sharp in his last two tries, so it’s fair to wonder if he has peaked.
11 – Fulmineo (15-1 ML): Arnaud Delacour trains this son of Bolt d’Oro, who like Agate Road, spent some time on the grass. Agate Road finished in front of him in both the Pilgrim and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last season, but he wasn’t too far behind. Daniel Centeno may have pushed the button a little too soon last out when closing from last into a slow pace in the allowance race that Crazy Mason won. That was his first start since the Breeders’ Cup and his first two-turn try on the dirt. The course was tiring and slow that day to begin with, so I’m not too concerned about him tiring late. Delacour has very good numbers with runners second time off the layoff and I see him as a candidate that could take a decent step forward in his second try on dirt this year. I see him as a much better value play that is comparable to Agate Road.
12: Elysian Meadows (15-1 ML, 100-1 Circa): Bill Mott brings this undefeated son of City of Light into town for his first try against open company. He ran well to beat New York breds in his first two tries at Aqueduct. He paired his first two Beyer figures, so he’s eligible to take a decent step forward in this race. While I like these connections who teamed up to win this race in 2021 with Candy Man Rocket, I think it’s asking a lot of him to try to get two turns for the first time, while having to do so in graded stakes company while breaking from Post 12.
The Verdict: 7-9-11
Copper Tax is the pick for me in this race. While I don’t think he’s in the same class as Dornoch or Sierra Leone, I think we would have seen a better showing from him in the Remsen had he not had such a terribly wide journey. Both Drum Roll Please and Domestic Product have strong efforts in their subsequent starts, so I see that as being a potential key race moving forward. I think the better weather and his positive experience will give him a decent edge in this race.
Change of Command is on a bit of a roll, winning two straight times for Shug McGaughey. Tyler Gaffalione is going to come in to ride him for the first time this afternoon. He’ll get blinkers for the first time, signaling to me that he’ll be aggressive in the early stages of this one.
I see Fulmineo as a clever longshot that could add some value to vertical wagers if he can get the right kind of trip from Post 11. Yellow Agate for Todd Pletcher is likely to go off at a significantly shorter price than this colt, however he hasn’t been that much better than him on the grass, I see the dirt as a bit of an equalizer for him.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
