The only stop in New Mexico on the 2024 Kentucky Derby Trail is the Sunland Park Derby, which is the highlight of the biggest day of racing this year at Sunland. This race has lost some points value from last year, but it was re-positioned to an earlier spot on the calendar. Prior to this year, this race was held at the end of March. It was typically a final prep race before the Derby, but with so many of the final races being pushed back a week or two over the last few years, this race was beginning to lose some relevance. In addition to the date change, the distance of this race has been scaled back from 1 ⅛ miles to 1 1/16 miles.
This year, eight runners have passed through the entry box in what appears to be a better version of last year’s race, which was won by a big longshot, the late, Wild On Ice. Post time for this race is scheduled for 4:17 (MT).
Sunland Park, Sunday 2/18/24, Race 9: The Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby
40 Total Derby points (20/10/6/4/2)
1 – No Trouble (10-1 ML): Last year, Joel Marr and Ken Tohill sent out Wild On Ice to win this race, and here is what I had to say about his chances. He feels like filler in this race and despite the small field, him winning this race would be as shocking as Mine That Bird winning the Derby in 2008. While I do feel that his win was quite shocking, that was probably the least insightful remark I gave on the Derby Trail last year. They’ll team up with a son of the very good sprinter, World of Trouble in this race. He’s stretching out to two turns after pairing his Beyer Figures in his first two sprints. His pedigree certainly isn’t screaming out for added distance. While I’m going to avoid any kind of superlative this year, I do think the 10-1 morning line figure is a direct result of the outcome last year. I think he should be closer to 50-1 in this race for me to consider him, assuming this field stays intact.
2 – Surroundedbyangels (12-1 ML): He;s another third time starter that has paired his first two Beyer Figures. He was an easy winner on debut and that effort was good enough to give him a chance in the Riley Allison Derby last month. He was up on the pace before faltering late. He was clearly third best, but he was 13 lengths behind Lucky Jeremy and 11 lengths behind Alotaluck. It’s hard to envision him making up that much ground on those two runners, while also having to deal with some talented shippers.
3 – Curlin’s Kaos (5-1 ML): This son of Clubhouse Ride is one of two California invaders, shipping here to likely dodge the Baffert runners. He broke his maiden three weeks ago when making his 4th career start, all of which came when facing California breds. His winning race came in a one mile contest on the grass at Santa Anita. He’s never gone two turns on the dirt and his sprint races weren’t anything to write home about. I’m not sold that he’s good enough to beat these.
4 – Lucky Jeremy (4-1 ML, 275-1 Circa): He showed some promise in his first two starts when facing restricted maiden special weight fields at Churchill. William Morey gave him a little time off and shipped him here for the Riley Allison Derby, where he was bet down to the 9-10 favorite. That proved to be smart money as he easily beat that group. Alotaluck was two lengths behind him and it was a long way back to the rest. He’ll be facing tougher foes in this race today, but I do think the race over the track could give him an edge over some of the runners that are shipping in from out of state for this one. He wants to be forwardly placed and he should be right in the mix with this group.
5 – Stronghold (5-2 ML, 85-1 Circa): Phil D’Amato opted to scratch out of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes two weeks ago in favor of this spot. Whether or not that decision was intentional, it seems like it was a good decision, based on the fact that he didn’t have to deal with Nysos again. When he last ran in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, I wasn’t sold on the idea that he was going to flourish at two turns. While he didn’t win that race, I thought he ran very well to be a contested second in that race, which featured a thrilling stretch battle. He’s been second three times in his career, with his lone win coming at Churchill back in October. I do like the more conservative approach that D’Amato is taking with this one and Antonio Fresu will make the trip from California to ride. He’s a definite contender.
6 – Alotaluck (6-1 ML): This gelded son of Sir Prancealot will be making his third career start today. He was dismissed in his debut, winning by 2 ½ lengths despite going off at 12-1. That effort was good enough to take a shot in the Riley Allison Derby. He was dead game that day, but couldn’t quite keep pace with Lucky Jeremy in the late stages of that one. There is reason to believe that he could take another step forward off that effort, but I think the other speed that is signed on to his inside, will make his job that much harder. He’s a good local horse, but I’m not sure he’s going to be able to keep up with the top trio.
7 – Da Ringo (20-1 ML): He’s the longest shot on the board in this race and he would definitely be a bigger shock than Wild On Ice winning this race last year. He was 22+ lengths off the pace in the Riley Allison Derby and his maiden breaking effort came with $7,500 maiden claimers. I think his Beyer Figures would need to improve 40 points to have a chance with this group, and there’s no guarantee that a jump that big would get him there.
8 – Informed Patriot (3-1 ML, 125-1 Circa): Steve Asmussen trains this son of Hard Spun, who is coming here after three straight third place finishes. Two of those races earned him a few Derby Points. He was most recently third behind Catching Freedom and Just Steel in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He would have been hard pressed to keep pace with Mystik Dan in the Southwest a few weeks ago, and he likely needs to improve before facing the likes of those horses again. If Joel Rosario can get him to relax off the early leaders, I think he could get rolling late with an off the pace win. Sometimes this track tends to get very speed friendly, especially on the bigger racing days, so that will be something that we’ll need to keep an eye on as the day progresses. It’s hard to discount anything from this barn at this point of time, and the fact that Rosario is riding here is a big plus.
The Verdict: 4-5-8
Last year, when Wild On Ice blew up the toteboard and scored a big victory for the locals, he was aided by the two favorites locking up in a cutthroat speed duel in the early stages of the race and having nothing left for the stretch run. While I do think there’s a fast pace on the table for this race today, I think many of these runners would be content to stalk the early pace as opposed to dictating the tempo. That strategy worked well for Lucky Jeremy in the Riley Allison Derby and I think it will work well for him today. He took the lead at the top of the stretch and gradually pulled away from Alotaluck. He’s had a nice progression of races for a barn that won 25% of their races in 2023. He remained on site after his local debut last month and had a pair of maintenance works going into this race. I think the strong effort over the track and the fact that he’s now second off the layoff, will give him a narrow advantage over the California shipper, Stronghold.
Stronghold is battling for the title of best California based three year old not trained by Bob Baffert. I thought the Robert Lewis this year came up tougher than it has in the last few years, and after he drew an outside post against a potential monster like Nysos, I agree with the decision to ship out here to try to get 20 points toward entry in the Derby. This horse showed promise as a two year old, running second most recently in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. He’s a nice horse that could possibly have some distance limitations as the races get longer, but I think taking a more conservative approach by shipping out of state (where he’s also running for a larger purse) is a wise choice. I expect him to be right there at the end of this one.
Informed Patriot is another one that is shipping here to possibly dodge some of the deeper competition in Louisiana or Arkansas. He’s based at the Fair Grounds, but Asmussen sent out both Hall of Fame and Track Phantom in the Risen Star Stakes yesterday. I think both of those colts are simply better than he is. The Southwest, running next week, is also likely to be a much deeper prep race. He’s stalked a fast pace in his last two races, but hasn’t finished as strong as some of the other runners he’s been up against. I think he could get the right trip, but I’m not totally convinced that he’s good enough to beat the top two. I like him better as an underneath play and more of a backup.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
