The third of five Derby Points races at Aqueduct is the Withers Stakes, which is a nine furlong test. This is a race with a deep history in New York. Sir Barton and Count Fleet won this race in between their starts in the Preakness and Belmont, en route to winning the Triple Crown in 1919 and 1943. Man O’ War, Native Dancer, and Dr. Fager were also winners of this race. It was typically a race held in the spring, more recently at Aqueduct or Belmont. Bernardini won this race in 2006 when this was a one mile contest held at Aqueduct. Three weeks later, he would go on to win the Preakness.
In 2012, this race was moved to an earlier spot on the NYRA calendar. From 2012-2017 it was contested at 1 1/16 miles on the inner dirt course. When that course was converted to a turf course, the distance was changed to the current nine furlong test. Since this race was re-positioned on the stakes calendar, Early Voting has been the most notable winner of this race. After winning this race in 2022, he would go on to win the Preakness.
Brad Cox won this race with Hit Show last year, and he’s back with Lightline, who is the morning line favorite in this race today. He’ll have to defeat eight rivals to take home the top prize today. Post time for this Grade 3 contest is scheduled for 3:55 (ET).
Aqueduct Saturday 2/3/24, Race 9: The Grade 3 Withers Stakes
40 Total Derby points (20/8/6/4/2)
1 – Speed Runner (5-1 ML, 250-1 Circa): Todd Pletcher has won this race three times in his career and he’s taking two shots to try to earn his 4th trophy. This son of Gun Runner is the better of the two runners that he sends out. He has a win at this distance, which gives him a definite advantage. Only one other runner in this field has tried going this long and he was 4 ½ lengths better than that one. The dam has produced some quality racehorses that have had success in a variety of races. Brilliant Speed was a Grade 1 winner on synthetic and he finished 3rd in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Turf. Souper Speedy was second in the 2011 Remsen on this course at this distance. His full brother was not one of her better runners, but he at least looks like a horse that has some ability. He feels like a horse that could be improving and should be dangerous with this group.
2 – Deposition (50-1 ML): Uriah St. Lewis has had several longshot runners that show up in these big spots in New York over the last several years. Most of them are big longshots, but every now and then they connect at huge odds. I don’t see that happening today with this Constitution colt though. He broke his maiden two starts back at Parx in his 5th career start. St. Lewis took a trip down I-95 and brought him to Laurel for the Heft Stakes in his last start. He was last of seven that afternoon, finishing 13 lengths behind the winner. Even though this is a below average Grade 3 field, there’s very little that I’ve seen from him that makes me think he’s going to pull off a shocker here.
3 – Lightline (8-5 ML, 150-1 Circa): Brad Cox is looking for his second straight win in this race with City of Light colt. The Albuagh Family paid $600K for him at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022, so the expectations were there from the start. He romped in his debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, winning a two turn race by almost 14 lengths. He was no match for Stretch Ride and Carbone in his last two allowance races at Keeneland and Oaklawn. Cox called an audible late in the game and brought this horse to two earlier in the week, trying to earn him a few Derby Points. I don’t love that this race was not really part of the plan for this horse, but I’m not sure how serious of a contender for the Derby he is, even within his own barn. He didn’t run well enough to be considered to start in the Lecomte or the Southwest alongside some of Cox’s other contenders. Cox trains Drum Roll Please who was third in the Remsen and the winner of the Jerome Stakes in his last start here. This one feels more like a fill in today. All of that being said, he has run three races that are faster than just about any other horse in this race. He’s drawn well for this race and he figures to be in the mix. I’d cover with him, but at short odds, I’d try to beat him.
4 – El Grande O (5-2 ML, 250-1 Circa): He’s the second choice on the morning line for his 10th career start today. This will be his first try at two turns after a series of one turn races. He set a fairly moderate pace after breaking sideways in his first stride out of the gate in the Jerome last time out. He kicked away, but was no match for Drum Roll Please. His dam did her best work at one turn and he’s the only runner of hers to have won a race longer than seven furlongs on the dirt. While he may be the controlling speed, it’s hard to fathom that he’s going to be able to continue to find energy in the final furlong. He’s not impossible, but if he’s going to go off at shorter odds than Speed Runner or Mission Beach, I’m not interested.
5 – Seminole Chief (12-1 ML, 200-1 Circa): He was last seen beating the heavy favorite, Bentornato, in the Florida Stallion Series In Reality Division race at the beginning of December. While that was an impressive effort, Bentornato looked like he wanted no part of going turns whatsoever. The runner up, Secret Lover, did win his next race, but that was in a weak maiden optional claiming race which came back very slow. I see him as a pace factor in this race because I think he’s going to keep El Grande O honest on the front end. Even though the final quarter was slow last time out, he was doing a lot of the heavy lifting up front and still had the energy to hold off the favorite and the runner up, the latter of which had the ideal scenario. I think this is a clever spot for Jack Sisterson to ship in from Florida. He’s not going to be competitive in the two turn open stakes races there right now and by virtue of winning last out, he’s no longer eligible for the first level state bred allowance level. This race is not as strong as some of the first level open allowance races at Gulfstream, and at Tampa, where the purses are far lower, it’s not unusual to see a Todd Pletcher or Chad Brown ambush the first level allowance races there with a runner using that race to prep for a stakes. He is still moving up in class and will need to take another decent step forward to win at this level. He’s not impossible, but I prefer others.
6 – Society Man (20-1 ML): This son of Curlin is the lone maiden in this field. He finished third behind Speed Runner last out when making his second start. This is clearly an ambitious spot for Danny Gargan to put him in, and he is making his second start off a five month layoff. I’d be more inclined to consider him if he had run better in either of his two maiden races, but this spot feels like a stretch for him.
7 – Mission Beach (6-1, 200-1 Circa): The conglomerate of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, and Madaket, paid $400K for this son of Curlin at the Keeneland September Sale in 2022. Bob Baffert was his trainer for his first three starts. He broke his maiden easily enough at Del Mar in August, so Baffert decided to ship him across the country to compete in the Grade 1 Hopeful. That race came back on the slow side and he faded to 5th after striking the front at the top of the stretch. He was very dull in the Bob Hope Stakes in November behind his then stablemate, Nysos, who put on a show. He was eased up once it was clear that he was going to do no better than 4th. This group transferred him to Brittany Russell, as they did with a few of their runners last year. She has won a ton of races in the Mid-Atlantic region over the past few years and there’s some money to be made for three year olds on the Maryland Circuit, which could help them recoup some of their original investment. She ran him in a first level allowance sprint at six furlongs toward the end of last year at Laurel. He cleared that condition rather easily and has earned a shot to see if he can earn some Derby Points. He was originally entered last weekend at Laurel in the seven furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes, but like four others, he defected, possibly in part due to the very sloppy course. Being sired by Curlin, I think there’s a decent chance that he’ll improve at the longer distance. His full brother won a small stakes race at 10 furlongs at Meydan in 2022. I don’t love that this feels more like a Plan B race for this one, however, I think there is plenty of upside with him in this spot.
8 – Uncle Heavy (10-1 ML): Butch Reid brings this PA bred son of Social Inclusion to New York to take a swing in open company. He was good when breaking his maiden at Parx in October when beating open maidens in a six furlong race. His race in the PA Nursery was lost at the start when he dwelt out of the gate and spotted the field several lengths in the 100 yards. He was stuck behind traffic and had to angle out with a wide bid before flattening out to be 5th. I thought his last race in the Wait For It Stakes, restricted to PA Breds, was a lot better than it looks on paper. He won that race while basically traveling four wide every step of the way. He conceded considerable ground loss to the heavy favorite, and then ducked to the inside for the stretch run where he gutted out a victory by a little more than a length. He’s drawn wide again, and he can’t afford to lose that much ground at this level. I’m also concerned because he looked very skittish in the gate in his last two starts. It led to slow starts in both of his last two races. He was very professional in his debut, so there’s a chance that the new surroundings could help him. He can clearly handle two turns and I think he’s going to be a force in the state bred stakes opportunities that are available in PA on the dirt this year. I think there’s reason to believe that he can improve enough to be in the conversation with this group. 10-1 is little light for my preference, especially with his recent antics in the gate. He feels more like a horse to try underneath, and if his odds do float up, he could be worth a small shot.
9 – Khanate (15-1 ML, 300-1 Circa): Todd Pletcher bookends this field with this Hightail colt who was a distant third in the Jerome Stakes last month. He beat up on a bad field in a restricted maiden special weight race at Keeneland in October. He tried open allowance company at Churchill and could do no better than 6th that day. He stumbled mildly out of the gate in the Jerome, but he was well behind El Grande O for third. I don’t care much for that one in this spot, so it’s hard to make a serious case for him. He won’t be on any of my tickets.
The Verdict: 1-7-3
Lightline is going to be a heavy favorite in this race, and while the allowance races that he ran in at Keeneland and Oaklawn were strong, he still was a well-beaten second in both of those races. Brad Cox has been winning a lot of these smaller Derby Points Races over the last few years, so you know he’ll be well prepared for this one. However, I don’t love taking a short price on a horse like that, especially when this was a race that wasn’t really on his radar last week. I’ll use him and cover him in the multi-race bets, but I’ll look for alternatives.
Speed Runner for Lezcano and Pletcher will be the top pick for me. He broke his maiden on this course at this distance, which goes a long way, especially this early in the three year old season. This barn has won many of these prep races at Aqueduct over the last several years. He draws well for the race that he wants to run, and I see him getting a nice stalking spot behind El Grande O, who I don’t believe wants to go this far.
Mission Beach is the other runner I’d include on the A line. He’s going to try to stretch out from six furlongs to nine furlongs in this race. I do think he had the pedigree to get the distance and the fact that this is 5th start makes that assignment a little easier. He’s another runner that feels like this race was more of a Plan B race for him, but as the 4th choice in the wagering, I could look past that.
We’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 150th Kentucky Derby on May 4th, 2024. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
