The road to the Kentucky Derby makes it second stop of the season at Aqueduct for the $150K Jerome Stakes. This is one of two one, one turn mile races at Aqueduct on the Derby Trail. While anything is possible, this race has not been a serious Derby Prep since it was re-positioned on the NYRA calendar in 2013. Some solid one turn horses like Mind Control and Firenze Fire were winners of this race in its current iteration. The morning favorite in this race is coming off a win in a starter allowance company, but he certainly has an interesting pedigree. Post time for this race is scheduled for 3:39 (ET) on what figures to be a chilly day in Ozone Park, New York.
Aqueduct, 1/4/25, Race 8: The $250K Smarty Jones Stakes:
21 Total Derby points (10/5/3/2/1)
1 – Enduring Spirit (30-1 ML): This colt sired by Tiz the Law has one very good race where he broke his maiden in May at Churchill when going five furlongs. His other four starts have been dismal efforts where he was never a factor. While the longer distance could suit him a little better, his last three tries have been very poor. Sofia Vives is one of two Woodbine based riders in this race, trying to make the right connections on the NYRA circuit over the winter, especially with synthetic racing coming to Belmont in a few years. It’s hard to imagine this one winning this race though.
2 – Mansetti (10-1 ML): Sahin Civaci is the other Woodbine based rider looking to expand his business over the winter. He won 26% of his races in 2024, so this may be the time to do just that. He’ll get the assignment on this Ontario bred that was a winner against fellow Ontario breds in the Clarendon Stakes at Woodbine toward the end of their meet. He’ll be trying the dirt for the first time, and his pedigree suggests that will be welcomed. The other three runners from this dam are all winners on dirt, including two-time stakes winner, Straight Up G. Civaci won a whopping 44% of his races for Kevin Attard last year, so the trust is there. The value should be there as well, however, I’d like him more if he had proven that he can stalk the pace. I’m worried that he might get cooked if they go too fast in the early stages of this one.
3 – Ican (8-1 ML): Rick Dutrow has two starters in this race, this one being the less notable runner. He broke his maiden in an off the turf dash at Horseshoe Indianapolis in October. Dutrow brought him back here where he had to deal with Cyclone State in N1X allowance company. He was pace compromised in that race where his rival had everything his own way. I think the added pace pressure from some of the longer priced runners could his cause, but there are others that I find more intriguing,
4 – Omaha Omaha (8-1 ML): Everybody with a three year old that appears to have some ability likely wants to get their horse to the Derby. This Virginia bred Audible colt is based in Maryland where, despite having a nice stakes program for three year olds, there are no Derby Points available. This year, the Virginia Derby is going to run on the dirt in March at a one turn, 1 ⅛ mile distance and it will be one of the races that offers 50 points to the winner and 25 points to the runner up. While that race is essentially a “win and you’re in” race for the Derby, this race could be a spot for this one to start accumulating points toward gaining a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. His last two efforts at Delaware and Laurel were impressive, drawing off to win both races going away. He’s likely going to get a reasonable pace to close into here while he’s cutting back from two turns to one turn. I like the move to bring him here and if he goes off near his 8-1 number, I think that would represent strong value. He’s the pick for me in this race.
5 – Georgia Magic (10-1 ML): Raymond Handal had this son of Good Magic ready to roll on debut. He took some pace pressure and then opened up to win by a little more than a length in a six furlong contest. His connections shelled out $230K for him, so the expectations were there from the start. His Beyer Speed Figure came back a very low 49, however, his Equibase Speed Figure of 80 would suggest he could be more competitive with this field. It’s not uncommon for Beyer Figures to be revisited from some two year old races, so I do think he could be better than that lower number suggests, especially in his second career start. However, I don’t love that he’s likely going to have to navigate speed coming at him from his inside and outside while also stretching out to two turns. If you’re suspicious of the Beyer Figure, this is likely a “buy low” spot for this horse. I’d be more likely to play him if he felt like he was a better fit from a pace standpoint though.
6 – Cyclone State (7-2 ML): This son of McKinzie has certainly gotten comfortable in these one turn races at the Big A. He broke his maiden at this trip two back when racing in his 5th career start. He came back a month later and cleared the N1X condition in a race where he was hammered down to the 3-10 favorite. He wants to be on the front end, but I’d think that Enduring Spirit, Mansetti, and Georgia Magic are going to make him work for the lead. At this level, I think he can win the early battle, but assuming the track is playing fairly, I think it’s going to be a challenge for him to win the war.
7 – Studlydoright (5-2 ML): This will be his 6th start in a New York stakes race. He was the winner of the Tremont at Saratoga and the Nashua on this course at this distance. He was the runner up in the Sanford, and he finished off the board in both the Hopeful and the Remsen. He’s struggled when facing better competition, but this level feels like his wheelhouse. His best race came at this distance, so the cutback in distance from the two turn Remsen feels like a welcome change. He’s danced several dances already for John Robb and while consistency has been an issue, I think he’s clearly the one to beat in this race. Despite being the second choice on the morning line, he should be the favorite when the gates spring open. David Aragona is the morning-line oddsmaker for NYRA and he is one of the best in the business. However, if this horse is the second choice in the wagering, that seems like it would be tremendous value.
8 – McAfee (2-1 ML): This son of Preakness winner, Cloud Computing, sold for $40K at the Keeneland September Sale in 2023. That was a month before his famous half-sister, Thorpedo Anna, made her debut. He failed to draw into a restricted maiden special weight race at Keeneland, so his debut had to wait until November 1st. With that pedigree, it was quite surprising to see him go off at 10-1, but his backers certainly didn’t mind. He came back to run a solid second in a race at this one turn mile distance at Churchill at the end of the meet. He was working well in Kentucky for Rick Dutrow and he’s been working well over the training track at Belmont. This is a reasonable spot for his first foray into stakes company, but 2-1 feels like an awfully low number. Other than the lack of perceived value, there are things to like.
The verdict: 4-7-8
The Maryland shipper, Omaha Omaha (#4) is intriguing to me in this race, while cutting back from a two turn contest. He’s run very well in his last two starts and I think he could get a good set up in this race, especially if the track is playing fairly. I think this is a clever spot for him to start earning Derby Points.
The Maryland bred runner, Studlydoright (#7), has had several productive visits to the Empire State, with the majority of his $279K in earnings coming from New York Stakes races. His win in the Nashua on this course at this distance was by far the best effort in his career and that race is way better than anything his seven rivals have put on tape up to this point. While he’s not always consistent, he tends to run well in the spots where he’s a contender.
The half-brother to the soon to be Eclipse Award winner, Thorpedo Anna, McAfee (#8), makes his stakes debut in this one turn mile race. He was an upset winner at first asking and he ran a credible race to be second in starter allowance company in Kentucky. While I get the family connections, it’s hard to take him seriously as the favorite in this spot. However, there are definitely things to like and I think he is worth covering and using at a higher price point.
I’ll have coverage of every North American Derby Points Race in this space, along with plenty of coverage leading up to the 151st Kentucky Derby on May 3rd, 2025. Current futures odds from Circa or Caesars-William Hill will be provided as they are available. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @EricSolomon718.
